The Coronavirus Thread - Part 2

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Post by Nishankly Mon Mar 23, 2020 2:59 pm

Hapless_Hans wrote:Guys, what's the situation in India and Bangladesh?
30 something cases in Bangladesh, a few hundreds in the whole of India, is that in any way reflective of reality?

Is the corona virus really not a thing at all in a country with a population of a billion and a famous lack of.. err.. social distancing?


Will respond tomorrow and your fears are correct. The only thing going for us that our average age in India is about 25 yet the 9% of total population who are 60+ age make 110 million people and we have experience in dealing and containing these flus.

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Post by Robespierre Mon Mar 23, 2020 3:01 pm

VivaStPauli wrote:Oh I know you're just curious, I'm wondering about that gal on twitter, and why she would spread that shit. It's easily falsifiable, so what is even gained by that? Trolls in every corner these days, wanting to destabilize everything, I guess.


Basically she  synthesizes the points of that article  ( in fact she quotes another man, who posted  the article )  because you should  be a Wall Street Journal subscriber for reading this piece .
Yes, the most  dramatic thing is that you should even pay for getting these articles Laughing
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Post by M99 Mon Mar 23, 2020 3:20 pm

Hapless_Hans wrote:Guys, what's the situation in India and Bangladesh?
30 something cases in Bangladesh, a few hundreds in the whole of India, is that in any way reflective of reality?

Is the corona virus really not a thing at all in a country with a population of a billion and a famous lack of.. err.. social distancing?


I don't trust any official statistics from Bangladesh. Most people I've talked to say there are far more cases than the official numbers. And they are not just rumors, people they personally know are infected and on quarantine.
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Post by Robespierre Mon Mar 23, 2020 3:42 pm

on twitter I read sometimes an Italian who is half-Cinese, so with relatives there, and in early February ( do you remember what was the perception of Coronavirus danger at that time? Flebile. I mean in this section posts on racism, refugees, islam etc... and the first one on Corona was by me on 23th February , the first day for Italy)
 he reported his cousin's words  about '  thousands of deaths in addition to the official numbers, weekly suicides by those who contract the virus because of fear to infect their families, arrests for those who spread the images of ambulances full  with corpses....'

I can't show it's true but honestly it seems a credible scenario since I don't believe China number are true.

When we 'll have to talk about Coronavirus to future generations, we'll say it was something that changed our life for months, a nightmare appeared suddenly and hard to dispose, but especially we 'll have to say that " No one never could expect this " . Just a flu...

China was not transparent about the matter till to end, despite they were forced to close city, and that' s reinforced the idea about a manageable situation in Europe, if it was coming.

This is a long article in Italian, so perhaps you can get a translation by some translator if you 're interest, anyway the title  says all.
https://www.ilpost.it/2020/03/23/ospedali-lombardia-emergenza-coronavirus/


We expected high tide, but a tsunami has arrived



The doctors of Bergamo, as well as those of the other   Lombard hospitals, had been advised about the possibility of infected people arriving. To identify them, the health directorates had established some criteria:   patient had to show particular symptoms, such as fever and breathing difficulties, and he  should  have recently made a trip to China, or he should have had contact with someone who had returned recently from China. The hypothesis of an Italian outbreak still did not exist, and that of an epidemic was not taken seriously by  anyone.

At the hospital in Bergamo, the first two patients tested positive for the coronavirus swab entered the emergency room a few hours after each other, between 21 and 22 February.

The first patient, who arrived in the night, remained in the emergency room for several hours. He came into contact with doctors and nurses from two different shifts who did not wear any type of specific protection, when specific departments had not yet been set up for patients suffering from COVID-19, the disease caused by coronavirus.
The prevailing idea was that - even if positive cases had arrived- the situation would remain under control.
But things went differently.
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Post by sportsczy Mon Mar 23, 2020 3:52 pm

Italy healthworker stats:

4834 infected
23 deceased

That's not too bad in terms of the mortality rate.
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Post by Warrior Mon Mar 23, 2020 3:59 pm

That's 0.4%

Very low scratch
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Post by sportsczy Mon Mar 23, 2020 4:04 pm

Warrior wrote:That's 0.4%

Very low scratch

Most people who have it are staying at home, show no symptoms... as a result, many positive cases aren't known or reported.

For healthcare people, they are all getting tested more than likely since they face constant exposure... so these figures give you a more accurate picture of the actual stats.
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Post by Art Morte Mon Mar 23, 2020 4:18 pm

Yeah, 0.4% might not be far from the actual fatality rate, I reckon. Maybe it's a little higher due to people over 70 practically not being among healthcare workers.
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Post by VivaStPauli Mon Mar 23, 2020 4:19 pm

Warrior wrote:That's 0.4%

Very low scratch
Warrior wrote:That's 0.4%

Very low scratch


Probably close to the actual mortality rate spread through all age groups
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Post by sportsczy Mon Mar 23, 2020 4:28 pm

Art Morte wrote:Yeah, 0.4% might not be far from the actual fatality rate, I reckon. Maybe it's a little higher due to people over 70 practically not being among healthcare workers.

But you have kids to counterbalance that. Depends on the country and % of kids to % of older people.
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Post by Robespierre Mon Mar 23, 2020 4:40 pm

23 died at work for me are not few but anyway 0.4 mortality rate ? Surely not in Italy
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Post by Robespierre Mon Mar 23, 2020 4:41 pm

in Lombardia , the most important Italian region , is 12 %.
I feel it's a very high number for a Western country.
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Post by Robespierre Mon Mar 23, 2020 4:53 pm

I read/ listen sometimes specifications about " BUT that person had previous pathologies before Corona " ,  or " he 's dead WITH Coronavirus, not Because of Coronavirus"

Frankly not convinced about these specifications. It seems to me just a way  to ward off fears.

But honestly ..... are there old ppl, I mean 65+ years, who haven't previous pathologies ? It is not just cancer or similar things I mean..

Also about  the distinction "for" and "with" coronavirus ( the most one popular) ....

following this logic, someone could say that by  , nobody dies   of old age, in fact old people die of heart failure insufficiency respiratory or renal (among the most common causes). So imagine starting to count deads because pf old age or deads with  old age.
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Post by Art Morte Mon Mar 23, 2020 5:16 pm

Robespierre wrote:in Lombardia , the most important Italian region , is 12 %.
I feel it's a very high number for a Western country.

That's the % from those who have tested positive. There are soooooo many people - in Italy and elsewhere - who have the virus but who have not been tested.

Death rate will also depend on whether hospitals have enough intensive care units to give to everyone who needs them. In Italy this may have increased the fatality rate.


Robespierre wrote:I read/ listen sometimes specifications about " BUT that person had previous pathologies before Corona " ,  or " he 's dead WITH Coronavirus, not Because of Coronavirus"

Frankly not convinced about these specifications. It seems to me just a way  to ward off fears.

But honestly ..... are there old ppl, I mean 65+ years, who haven't previous pathologies ? It is not just cancer or similar things I mean..

I am a little bit sceptical about those "underlying health conditions" myself. Like, how many people have a health condition but don't know about it yet? Not everyone who thinks they are 100% healthy actually are that.
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Post by Robespierre Mon Mar 23, 2020 5:24 pm

Fingers crossed ...... but 2nd day in a row for decrease in infections and deads in Italy

21 March 6300 (inf.) - 793 (d. )
22 march 5500 (inf.) - 652 (d.)
23 March 4800 (inf.) - 602 (d.)
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Post by CBarca Mon Mar 23, 2020 5:50 pm

Hope that continues
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Post by RealGunner Mon Mar 23, 2020 5:59 pm

The coronavirus pandemic is "accelerating", the World Health Organization warns
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Post by Jay29 Mon Mar 23, 2020 6:56 pm

Kind of a redundant warning at this point.

Boris' address has been pushed back to 20:30. Looks like we're going under lock and key and all non-essential businesses will be closed.

...so if you still need to pop to GAME, now's the time.

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Post by RealGunner Mon Mar 23, 2020 7:00 pm

Greggs closing too

ffs

what is left now?

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Post by Warrior Mon Mar 23, 2020 7:00 pm

683 cases in my province today, yesterday it was in the low 200s

So indeed everybody is panicking, apparently everything not essential will close. In other words a complete shutdown. My boss told i'm working tonight, but i deliver car parts not food, tomorrow i might temporarily lose my job. Oh well

The pandemic is accelerating but the global measures were taken 10 days ago, before that nobody cared, so those results were expected. By all logic it will start to decrease or stabilize somewhere around the next week-end.
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Post by CBarca Mon Mar 23, 2020 7:03 pm

US deaths the last 4 days:

66 --> 73 --> 124 --> 160 (that last # is today...by 2PM... a lot of states have yet to report and will still be reporting throughout the day)

I should be clear, those are added deaths. Not the increasing total # of deaths, which is now at 631.

US statistics might start getting ugly really soon. Here's to hoping that's not the truth.
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Post by Warrior Mon Mar 23, 2020 7:09 pm

That is the truth CBucks. It will get worse for a while, it's just logic. USA government have been slow to react and apparently the measures are still a matter of debate ?

If we speak long term, the crisis might not last for an unreasonable time, as it's clear many more persons have already the virus, showing zero or minor symptoms. This is biasing the stats, making them look worse than reality.
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Post by Nishankly Mon Mar 23, 2020 7:27 pm

Robespierre wrote:in Lombardia , the most important Italian region , is 12 %.
I feel it's a very high number for a Western country.


Sorry Robes, I completely disagree with all your posts quoting "a western country". The fact that Lombardia has 12% healthcare infected has literally NOTHING to do with being a "Western" Country.

It is Italy's fault, and Italy is to blame. They aren't sitting there getting infected to set a bar for an Eastern country to match. Unless you feel every Eastern country goes in a merry go around infecting 20% of its doctors.
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Post by Nishankly Mon Mar 23, 2020 7:31 pm

France touches 3.9k cases today, they are now testing patients other than the severe, expect the growth rate to grow here.
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Post by zigra Mon Mar 23, 2020 7:44 pm

sportsczy wrote:
Art Morte wrote:Yeah, 0.4% might not be far from the actual fatality rate, I reckon. Maybe it's a little higher due to people over 70 practically not being among healthcare workers.

But you have kids to counterbalance that. Depends on the country and % of kids to % of older people.


Kids wouldn't really balance it out if almost all the deaths happen in the age group 70+

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Post by Unique Mon Mar 23, 2020 7:54 pm

why are more and more people getting infected in italy if they have been on lock down for weeks.
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