The Coronavirus Thread - Part 2

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Post by Nishankly Wed Mar 18, 2020 8:18 pm

Asymptomatic cases is one of the biggest reasons I stayed even after my University, France and India encouraged all students to return to their home countries.

We had people who flew in, passed the test and then further flew domestic to reach their home cities.

Then we have this:

The Coronavirus Thread - Part 2 89851111_10158105675831692_3240374970236272640_n.jpg?_nc_cat=108&_nc_sid=ca434c&_nc_ohc=xge6KR_aO-gAX8kQbl_&_nc_ht=scontent-mrs2-1

Self quarantine doesn't work, it has to be government mandated.
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Post by Nishankly Wed Mar 18, 2020 8:19 pm

@The Demon of Carthage wrote:
@CBarca wrote:Is it possible we're actually well on our way to herd immunity, but we just don't know it yet?

You've brought up an excellent point. Herd immunity means that a large portion of the world population becomes infected with COVID-19, but many recover and are then immune to it.

So the first question you need to ask yourself here is: how many people are immune to it now? The second question that you should be asking yourself is: After you recover from COVID-19, is it impossible for you to get it again?

If the answer to the first question exceeds 50% and the answer to the second question is yes, then herd immunity should be seriously considered as a viable option.

Problem is, we still know very little of this virus. We don't know how many will recover from it and whether or not they will still be immune to it afterwards.

This is why shooting for herd immunity at this point is very risky. It could work, but it could also backfire and you end up having more dead people than you can even count.


https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/feb/27/japanese-woman-tests-positive-for-coronavirus-for-second-time

A woman working as a tour bus guide in Japan has tested positive for coronavirus for a second time, in what authorities have said is the first such case.

The woman, who is in her 40s and a resident of Osaka in western Japan, tested positive on Wednesday after developing a sore throat and chest pains, the prefectural government said. She first tested positive on 29 January and was discharged from hospital after recovering on 1 February, before testing negative on 6 February.
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Post by The Demon of Carthage Wed Mar 18, 2020 8:22 pm

^ Thanks for the information, Nish.

Well there you have it CBarca, herd immunity can't work with COVID-19.
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Post by Warrior Wed Mar 18, 2020 8:25 pm

Out of negligence Italy has already tested the "herd immunity" solution, we can see where it lead them...
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Post by Nishankly Wed Mar 18, 2020 8:31 pm

@The Demon of Carthage wrote:^ Thanks for the information, Nish.

Well there you have it CBarca, herd immunity can't work with COVID-19.


Its the only case so far though (Unless we've had more), maybe she hadn't fully recovered yet but then she tested negative 5 days after recovering while we have news where people test negative and then develop symptoms some days later.

There is a lot we still don't know about this virus and that is a worrying thought.
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Post by rincon Wed Mar 18, 2020 8:33 pm

@The Demon of Carthage wrote:^ Thanks for the information, Nish.

Well there you have it CBarca, herd immunity can't work with COVID-19.

This doesn't mean that. It's a single case, and there will be more, but it's not unknown that even for viruses that we develop immunity to, some people don't. So there can be a small % of people who don't develop immunity to it and it still means the bulk of the population will be immune.

It's still too early to say either way.
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Post by The Demon of Carthage Wed Mar 18, 2020 8:40 pm

Can't really disagree with anything in your post. It's way too early to say.
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Post by rincon Wed Mar 18, 2020 8:41 pm

@The Demon of Carthage wrote:
@Unique wrote:Not sure what Italy are doing to stop it but whatever it is it's not working. More and more are dying by the day.

Italy isn't actually doing anything wrong, but the reason they are doing much worse than, say South Korea (I'm going to use them as an example because they have been managing the disease really well), is down to different factors:

1. Age disparity: In Italy, 90% of the more than 1,000 deaths occur in those 70 or older. By contrast, the outbreak in South Korea has occurred among much younger people.

2. Gender: COVID-19 is killing more men than women (overall death rate is 4.7% in men versus 2.8% in women). This is good news for South Korea where 62% of cases occur among women.

3. Smoking is another factor clearly associated with poor survival. Smoking rates are about the same between the two countries: 24% for Italians and 27% for South Koreans. But gender differences among smokers are widely different: In Italy, 28% of men versus 20% of women smoke, while in Korea, it is about 50% of men and less than 5% of women.

In other words, South Korea has an outbreak among youngish, non-smoking women, whereas Italy's disease is occurring among the old and the very old, many of whom are smokers.

This is why you can't say "hey, this X country has been better than this Y country in managing the virus" because the outcome depends on the aforementioned factors. Factors that the country  itself has no control over.

I'll say this though: countries like mine who still to this very day haven't done a total lockdown even though they can clearly see the devastating effects on countries like France or Italy who took it lightly and laughed off the idea of an early quarantine have only themselves to blame.

All of this is true imo, to elaborate more on your last point i think it's important to note the big thing.

The mortality rate spikes once the health system collapses.

Italy noticed the severity of their situation too late. The real number of cases was already very large. Furthermore, it infected old populations in Lombardia. This influx of old patients, all at once, eventually overwhelmed the hospitals in these cities. The more full the hospitals are, the more "moderate" cases will die. Doctors there have to "choose" who to save and who to let die. This single region is where 2000 of the 3000 deaths have come from.

That's the whole speech we hear about flattening the contagion curve. It's to avoid this situation with heavy quarantine.

So Lombardia had the worse possible demographics for it, the virus infected the worst communities for it, and it all happened before serious measures were taken so it snowballed too fast.
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Post by rincon Wed Mar 18, 2020 8:46 pm

I remember the town most seriously hit at the start was Codogno. This kind of community has ~40% of people over 60yo.
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Post by RealGunner Wed Mar 18, 2020 8:55 pm


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Post by Babun Wed Mar 18, 2020 8:56 pm

@rincon is right, the graph is straight from la repubblica:
The Coronavirus Thread - Part 2 Morti10
More than 90% of the victims were over 70y old. In comparison, 70% of the positivly tested in Germany are under 50y old. There you have it, the disparity in mortality rates.
Source:
https://lab.gedidigital.it/gedi-visual/2020/coronavirus-i-contagi-in-italia/?ref=RHPPTP-BH-I251620115-C12-P2-S1.12-T1
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Post by Art Morte Wed Mar 18, 2020 9:36 pm

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-italy-homes-insigh/uncounted-among-coronavirus-victims-deaths-sweep-through-italys-nursing-homes-idUSKBN2152V0

Care home deaths on the rise in Italy and they're not being counted as covid-19 deaths. Italy has about 36k confirmed cases at the moment, but I reckon the real number could be 100 times that.
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Post by CBarca Wed Mar 18, 2020 10:54 pm

@The Demon of Carthage wrote:
@CBarca wrote:Is it possible we're actually well on our way to herd immunity, but we just don't know it yet?

You've brought up an excellent point. Herd immunity means that a large portion of the world population becomes infected with COVID-19, but many recover and are then immune to it.

So the first question you need to ask yourself here is: how many people are immune to it now? The second question that you should be asking yourself is: After you recover from COVID-19, is it impossible for you to get it again?

If the answer to the first question exceeds 50% and the answer to the second question is yes, then herd immunity should be seriously considered as a viable option.

Problem is, we still know very little of this virus. We don't know how many will recover from it and whether or not they will still be immune to it afterwards.

This is why shooting for herd immunity at this point is very risky. It could work, but it could also backfire and you end up having more dead people than you can even count.


So, the reason why I mention later that I still support the measures that governments worldwide have taken against this virus is because I do think the idea of "shooting for" herd immunity is dumb.

We will far exceed our hospital capacities and a lot of otherwise treatable individuals will die if one were to "shoot for" herd immunity, especially given the relative uncertainty about it.

As far as I've read, the idea that individuals are immune after getting it seems to be a safe assumption as of right now. Cases where people have become negative, then back to positive again have been few and far between, and with the #'s that have been reported, it's likely that those were mistakes either with tests or perhaps due to some sort of relapse from original illness, rather than contracting the virus again. Although I admit there is some uncertainty here (can't say for sure either way).

I was just curious if people had any data with respect to our knowledge on the number of asymptomatic cases (in general or per infected individual). Mostly because...perhaps this thing ends sooner than we think it does if there is a vast, vast network of asymptomatic cases out there. But I'm not aware of if there is (a vast network of asymptomatic cases)
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Post by Unique Wed Mar 18, 2020 10:57 pm

This 14 day lock in theory sounds like a great idea but why didn't it work in practice. If it takes 10 days from getting the virus to recovery then if everyone stays Inside for 14 then the virus should die out
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Post by Babun Wed Mar 18, 2020 11:04 pm

Anyone from New York here?
I heard some disturbing info from an acquaintance over there which I want to confirm. Apparently, shops are plundered empty, unrest is heavy among people, they all are buying guns right now.
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Post by Unique Wed Mar 18, 2020 11:07 pm

@Babun wrote:Anyone from New York here?
I heard some disturbing info from an acquaintance over there which I want to confirm. Apparently, shops are plundered empty, unrest is heavy among people, they all are buying guns right now.
now you know why the US have been trying to get rid of the guns for years.
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Post by Nishankly Wed Mar 18, 2020 11:09 pm

Except my boi Sepp, What are you guys doing to pass time in isolation?
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Post by Young Kaz Wed Mar 18, 2020 11:11 pm

@Babun wrote:Anyone from New York here?
I heard some disturbing info from an acquaintance over there which I want to confirm. Apparently, shops are plundered empty, unrest is heavy among people, they all are buying guns right now.


Guns arent allowed in NYC.

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Post by BarrileteCosmico Wed Mar 18, 2020 11:12 pm

@Babun wrote:Anyone from New York here?
I heard some disturbing info from an acquaintance over there which I want to confirm. Apparently, shops are plundered empty, unrest is heavy among people, they all are buying guns right now.
buying a gun in NYC is next to impossible

But yeah I have a few friends there that confirm what you say about unrest about unrest and stores.
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Post by Unique Wed Mar 18, 2020 11:16 pm

How did they manage to ban guns in NYC but not everywhere else
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Post by Young Kaz Wed Mar 18, 2020 11:24 pm

@Unique wrote:How did they manage to ban guns in NYC but not everywhere else


It was one of the most violent places on earth that was turned into a gentrified tourist hub. The guns had to go.

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Post by BarrileteCosmico Thu Mar 19, 2020 12:36 am

@Unique wrote:How did they manage to ban guns in NYC but not everywhere else
buying a gun in most big cities is almost impossible

but guns are a big part of rural culture, so that's why they're still around
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Post by sportsczy Thu Mar 19, 2020 3:38 am

@Babun wrote:Anyone from New York here?
I heard some disturbing info from an acquaintance over there which I want to confirm. Apparently, shops are plundered empty, unrest is heavy among people, they all are buying guns right now.

I live in North Williamsburg in Brooklyn.  Absolutely not true here.  There's unease...  but everything is fine.  Great sense of community.

Everything is absolutely fine in Manhattan too from what I've heard (haven't been there in a week).

Nothing going on.  Things are perfectly sane... and no, everybody's not running to buy guns because you can't buy guns here.  Stores are full in am and empty out by the pm like most places.  But there's restock every day.

Nice touch... if you're 60 or older, the stores are exclusively yours form 8am to 9am.  So my mom, who live here, has Whole Foods pretty much all to herself for that hour with full shelves.

Overall, things are fine.  Retail stores are closed and there's a sense of nervousness.  But the sense of community, once again, is great.  All restaurants offer takeout and delivery...  and I use it just so I'm supporting them.  They need the revenue. Same with most coffee shops... you can go in, get what you want and then leave. Making sure i support those guys too.
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Post by Blue Thu Mar 19, 2020 4:44 am

China is threatening to cut off medical supplies in the midst of a pandemic, and also arguing that the US Military created the COVID-19 virus.

Also China, trying to make the argument it would be a bad idea for US to move medical supply chains back to US. Laughing

https://twitter.com/MFA_China/status/1239875501075738624

https://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2020/mar/17/china-threatens-restrict-critical-drug-exports-us/

Just for the record i am no fan of Trump xenophobic attacks on the Chinese. It is completely unhelpful and wrong to do so. With that said the Chinese government is an absolute threat, they must be held responsible for the coverup and lies.
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Post by Arquitecto Thu Mar 19, 2020 7:13 am

Forget China taking zero accountability for a virus that came from China and China alone, and now they try to blame the US military?

Their political regime is total scum. Fuck any totalitarian nation.

Wew Laughing
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