Re: The Coronavirus Thread - Part 3

[iftikhar]

Any idea how Jay and his brother is doing?

[Nishankly]

^uhmm surely it's my version of the story because i talk to these people? but yea i guess they're trying to get fit too in the process

Wasn't talking about them.

[Nishankly]

https://www.lemonde.fr/planete/article/2020/04/26/coronavirus-22-614-morts-en-france-le-conseil-scientifique-devoile-son-avis-sur-le-deconfinement_6037790_3244.html

France to announce "deconfinement" strategy on 28th. Waiting to see what they do regarding international travel.

[Jay29]

Any idea how Jay and his brother is doing?

We're both fine. No other symptoms whatsoever. If we're infected, we're likely to be very mild cases cases.

Thanks for asking though.

[Robespierre]

I wonder if it's going to happen also on other sides sooner or later
let's be clear, nothing exagerrated today there , but how much ppl will resist and I talk about every country . in that case we could witness an evolution of the protests

#Allemagne : Quelques centaines de personnes manifestent cet après-midi à Berlin devant le théâtre Volksbuhne de Rosa-Luxemburg-Platz contre les restrictions des droits civils imposées avec la crise sanitaire du #COVID19 pic.twitter.com/k7rGQ28Lv6

— Alexandre L_B (@alex_le_bars) April 25, 2020

Hundreds gathered near Rosa Luxemburg Platz in Berlin to protest #coronavirus restrictions https://t.co/zJgyiV5OAH pic.twitter.com/fqt5PH5uYY

— Noah Barkin (@noahbarkin) April 25, 2020

It's started online in France as well. They'll get the balls to go out and protest when the curve flattens like Germany.

Basically Italians are an undisciplined ppl but virus scared us so much that we haven't made signs of disobbedience.

Today it's been announced the " Phase2", that had to do with easing of measures , but it's not as we 'd have thought it.

It's basically very similar to Phase 1.   Conte's words didn't like to the people.

Banally, you know what's still one of biggest problems ? If your girlfriend lives in another city, you can't still meet her.

[sportsczy]

Huntington Beach, CA (Near Los Angeles).....good for them:

[The Demon of Carthage]

Sorry but what's good about acting like a fucking irresponsible, selfish jackass?

Those people are criminal because many of them are asymptomatic carriers and they will in one way or another kill a fragile person.

But I'm sure they don't care about that. All they care about is their own enjoyment.

I wish governments would impose a new rule where any person who disobeys confinement measures can't be admitted to hospitals or treated.

The disease has reached this level mainly because of this kind of people. People who couldn't understand on their own that they need to stay the fuck where they are and not travel to other countries during the pandemic because it would inevitably help the disease reach other places.

Fuck them. They are the reason people continue to die everyday.

[Warrior]

We'll see in the next few weeks if a quick unlockdown is justified, using the stats of Huntingdon Beach, CA and surroundings as example.

Being a guinea pig for virology studies is a risk i would not take personally. If some people are reckless enough to go at the beach with the hope that Covid is harmless all of a sudden, it's good for them, i suppose

[Babun]

Huntington Beach, CA (Near Los Angeles).....good for them:

Nothing wrong in there, they just need to stay distanced from each other and communicate within their own family group only. The problem isn't outside (the virus density is too small, moist and sun renders it useless pretty fast), more like inside the buildings, enclosed rooms, shops or public transport AND public toilets.
I'm go for a jog and do bodyweight exercises every other day. All people avoid each other like a pest so no biggie. I don't touch anything outside
That said I don't belong to any risk group. The risk group should practice "isolate yourself as much as humanly possible" method till the calamity is over.

I wonder if it's going to happen also on other sides sooner or later
let's be clear, nothing exagerrated today there , but how much ppl will resist and I talk about every country . in that case we could witness an evolution of the protests
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="fr" dir="ltr"> <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/Allemagne?src=hash&ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#Allemagne</a> : Quelques centaines de personnes manifestent cet après-midi à Berlin devant le théâtre Volksbuhne de Rosa-Luxemburg-Platz contre les restrictions des droits civils imposées avec la crise sanitaire du <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/COVID19?src=hash&ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#COVID19</a> <a href="https://t.co/k7rGQ28Lv6">pic.twitter.com/k7rGQ28Lv6</a></p>— Alexandre L_B (@alex_le_bars) <a href="https://twitter.com/alex_le_bars/status/1254052419413184513?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">April 25, 2020</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Hundreds gathered near Rosa Luxemburg Platz in Berlin to protest <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/coronavirus?src=hash&ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#coronavirus</a> restrictions <a href="https://t.co/zJgyiV5OAH">https://t.co/zJgyiV5OAH</a> <a href="https://t.co/fqt5PH5uYY">pic.twitter.com/fqt5PH5uYY</a></p>— Noah Barkin (@noahbarkin) <a href="https://twitter.com/noahbarkin/status/1254061526761209856?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">April 25, 2020</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

It's started online in France as well. They'll get the balls to go out and protest when the curve flattens like Germany.

Basically Italians are an undisciplined ppl but virus scared us so much that we haven't made signs of disobbedience.

Today it's been announced the " Phase2", that had to do with easing of measures , but it's not as we 'd have thought it.

It's basically very similar to Phase 1.    Conte's words didn't like to the people.

Banally, you know what's still one of biggest problems ? If your girlfriend lives in another city, you can't still meet her.

You can't judge the whole nation by a handful of people. We're lucky at least one of them isn't ruling the country (Trump). As far as Italy goes, the mobile tracking data suggested there was too much movement in Italy for no purpose (30% in Lombardy two weeks ago). That's worse than 1000 idiots protesting.

I still think people should be allowed to go outside. Total lockdowns would lower the willingsness of the people to obey the rules long term, even in Italy.

[Robespierre]

[

You can't judge the whole nation by a handful of people. We're lucky at least one of them isn't ruling the country (Trump). As far as Italy goes, the mobile tracking data suggested there was too much movement in Italy for no purpose (30% in Lombardy two weeks ago). That's worse than 1000 idiots protesting.

I still think people should be allowed to go outside. Total lockdowns would lower the willingsness of the people to obey the rules long term, even in Italy.

Meh.... I am not judging Germans , I've taken as example this symbolic protest and  I wondered if we might expect others protests / an evolution of protests if restrinctions last for some time. How much ppl is ready to resist , renouncing ? I've even written ' let's be clear, nothing exagerrated today there ' so clearly you hadn't understood my post.

[Jay29]

We all knew lockdowns would become less effective over time, especially as deaths and infection rates fall. People will now believe we're over the worst of it or that, because the death rates aren't as high as first feared (thanks to the lockdowns) that the virus isn't as bad as they thought. Same is happening in the UK now with #lockdownend trending on Twitter. I've been very critical of the government here but at the very least they've been consistent in their message about not ending the lockdown too soon and needing their five tests satisfied (which, with the rate they're increasing testing and PPE availability, is going to take a long time).

Anyway, I've just had a NHS nurse round to do swab and blood tests on my mother, brother and myself. I thought the swab test would be uncomfortable but it was actually painless. We'll be tested again once a week for the next four weeks, and then once a month after that, as part of this ongoing study. We're only getting the results of the swab tests and I'm not sure when, but I'll share them when we do.

[Hapless_Hans]

Considering the amount of restrictions to daily life, and the impact on people's lives and businesses, combined with the fact that the actual outbreak of the disease in Germany didn't turn out to be especially devastating and uncontrollable so far (at no point was there a shortage of hospital beds or respirators etc), it's actually not very surprising there's people questioning the measures and trying to protest.

Especially since most of these kind of people who were protesting in Berlin on Saturday are prone to an attitude of, say, suspecting the 'government' of 'lying', and of the 'media' being in cahoots with the 'government', and such, i.e. groups that have a very deterministic, agency-driven, scheme-based understanding of the workings of politics, and who suspect a cover-up or a plot behind every measure.
Not saying that none of these suspicions or questions are unfounded or unwarranted, not saying all of them blame the Jews, but you know

Now obviously, the very fact that the outbreak didn't escalate so far is quite probably to a good part due to the measures, but still this, even if its the very effect of the measures, makes their neccessity seem questionable.
Not surprising at all that some people would get impatient or defiant. That is definitively to be allowed to a certain extent.

All in all IMO people have been remarkably compliant, disciplined, and ready to sacrifice.

Also, I agree with @Babun, let's not lose all proportion here. Why should people not be allowed to go outside, or sit in a park or a beach with enough distance between themselves.
We will have to get used to restrictions for a long time, the much conjured up "new normal"... but that also must mean we will have to shape the restrictions to make our lives actually somewhat livable in a normal fashion.
Not being allowed outside can not be part of any "normal". Neither can be a way of life that embraces denunciation, blaming, shaming, censoring, cracking down on any deviation.

[futbol]

Lockdown makes not much sense if it isn't going to maintain until everyone is tested/until a vaccine is found IMO. If everything is going to open up again in a few weeks nothing has been won except delaying the inevitable. Imagine cinemas, gyms, restaurants, clubs, schools opening up again next month. The virus didn't just vanish after 4 weeks of home office and will continue to spread. Just a single person who has it and visits a club or cinema can cause a mass infection.

So either you lock down properly or you don't at all and let everyone be his own decision maker. Locking down for 1 or 2 months then going back to normal is utterly useless.

[Myesyats]

Huntington Beach, CA (Near Los Angeles).....good for them:

Tbh being in a enclosed space is way more dangerous than being at the beach on a sunny day. It's fine if there's some distance between the people.

No point in staying locked down in the summer.

[Hapless_Hans]

Locking down for 1 or 2 months then going back to normal is utterly useless.

Not necessarily. If the primary goal of the anti-pandemic effort is to 'flatten the curve" of infection to avoid strain on the health system, this could also be achieved by breaking up the big wave of infection into smaller waves of infection, opening stuff up, closing stuff down again etc.. Theoretically speaking.
Not sure what's worse tbh, a long lockdown without pause, or severl phases of lockdown with lifting of restrictions in between.

[Thimmy]

As soon as the prime minister announced that restrictions were being reduced, all of my youngest neighbours threw parties and people started gathering in the local parks here. Recently, two people were affected - the second one supposedly got infected from sitting on the same park bench as the first one. Couldn't help but giggle a little bit when I logged onto GL and read that these things don't matter as much, so long as distancing is upheld

[iftikhar]

Any idea how Jay and his brother is doing?

We're both fine. No other symptoms whatsoever. If we're infected, we're likely to be very mild cases cases.

Thanks for asking though.

Great, but do stay safe. In Bangladesh, we are having increasing number of cases where people are tested positive while NOT showing ANY symptoms of Corona.

Any news on @Unique???

[BarrileteCosmico]

https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-englands-excess-deaths-among-the-highest-in-europe-11977394

new analysis based off 'excess deaths' shows England has been as badly hit as Spain and Italy.

also interesting to compare the norway and sweden charts for the ongoing debate on best approach

[Babun]

[

You can't judge the whole nation by a handful of people. We're lucky at least one of them isn't ruling the country (Trump). As far as Italy goes, the mobile tracking data suggested there was too much movement in Italy for no purpose (30% in Lombardy two weeks ago). That's worse than 1000 idiots protesting.

I still think people should be allowed to go outside. Total lockdowns would lower the willingsness of the people to obey the rules long term, even in Italy.

Meh.... I am not judging Germans   , I've taken as example this symbolic protest and  I wondered if we might expect others protests / an evolution of protests if restrinctions last for some time. How much ppl is ready to resist , renouncing ? I've even written ' let's be clear, nothing exagerrated today there ' so clearly you hadn't understood my post.

My bad, I was sleepy in the morning
The protests will escalate in the near future, for the financial existence of many are on the line. Watch the second part of the film "Contagious" to know what I mean

As soon as the prime minister announced that restrictions were being reduced, all of my youngest neighbours threw parties and people started gathering in the local parks here. Recently, two people were affected - the second one supposedly got infected from sitting on the same park bench as the first one. Couldn't help but giggle a little bit when I logged onto GL and read that these things don't matter as much, so long as distancing is upheld

The magic is not to touch anything but anyways for the laughs:
Warning, a video and the audio is important to understand the content. Don't click if not desired
https://img-9gag-fun.9cache.com/photo/aqgvo8j_460svvp9.webm

[Myesyats]

As soon as the prime minister announced that restrictions were being reduced, all of my youngest neighbours threw parties and people started gathering in the local parks here. Recently, two people were affected - the second one supposedly got infected from sitting on the same park bench as the first one. Couldn't help but giggle a little bit when I logged onto GL and read that these things don't matter as much, so long as distancing is upheld

So just wash your hands frequently and use disinfectant on armrests, handles, buttons etc.

Obviously a party is not advised at this point, but people sitting on a beach on a sunny day while keeping distance is fine. Just be careful, use gloves, soap and disinfectant when using restrooms etc.

We have to learn to live with Corona.

[CBarca]

Locking down for 1 or 2 months then going back to normal is utterly useless.

Not necessarily. If the primary goal of the anti-pandemic effort is to 'flatten the curve" of infection to avoid strain on the health system, this could also be achieved by breaking up the big wave of infection into smaller waves of infection, opening stuff up, closing stuff down again etc.. Theoretically speaking.
Not sure what's worse tbh, a long lockdown without pause, or severl phases of lockdown with lifting of restrictions in between.

Lockdown also buys valuable time to figure out new, more effective treatments, allows for more research to better understand the virus, and gives countries time to get their testing ramped up as well as start to build an effective force to test, trace, and isolate cases.

And even if we test, trace, and isolate very poorly, we can still save tens of thousands of lives. Tens of thousands of lives saved = less strain on the healthcare system for the many individuals who will slip through the (likely very large) cracks of test, trace, isolate, and inevitably end up sick.

[Hapless_Hans]

Locking down for 1 or 2 months then going back to normal is utterly useless.

Not necessarily. If the primary goal of the anti-pandemic effort is to 'flatten the curve" of infection to avoid strain on the health system, this could also be achieved by breaking up the big wave of infection into smaller waves of infection, opening stuff up, closing stuff down again etc.. Theoretically speaking.
Not sure what's worse tbh, a long lockdown without pause, or severl phases of lockdown with lifting of restrictions in between.

Lockdown also buys valuable time to figure out new, more effective treatments, allows for more research to better understand the virus, and gives countries time to get their testing ramped up as well as start to build an effective force to test, trace, and isolate cases.

And even if we test, trace, and isolate very poorly, we can still save tens of thousands of lives. Tens of thousands of lives saved = less strain on the healthcare system for the many individuals who will slip through the (likely very large) cracks of test, trace, isolate, and inevitably end up sick.

Completely agreed, but yet the actual content of the various 'lock downs' in action in different countries varies greatly.

From today, stored are allowed open again in Germany, with restrictions as to size and number of customers, while there's the obligation to wear masks now in all stores and public transport (which is new)
Austria has allowed certain businesses to reopen already two weeks ago, but then some of those kind of businesses (like utility stores) never were closed in Germany in the first place.
Restaurants were always allowed to remain open for takeaway, so people were allowed to go and buy food, go running etc.

Just saying, there's no such thing as a total lockdown and thank god. To what degree restrictions have to be enacted is fluid and rightly so.

[Art Morte]

"Why UK's death toll could soon be the worst in Europe" - the current headline on the Telegraph's website.

Is there going to be any political fall out in the UK over the handling of the pandemic? You could argue they've done a really bad job on this, being unprepared and reacting too late.

Although Italy and Spain have been badly hit, I'm under the impression that the governments over there are doing OK in the peoples' opinion. The UK had more time to react, but are not seeing any benefit from it.


Also: "Nearly 25,000 deaths from all causes were recorded in the UK in week of the Easter bank holiday - 108% above the expected number for this time of year."

So, that's about 13,000 more deaths in a week than expected. The UK's official Covid death toll is about 21,000. Difficult not to think that the actual death toll is much, much higher if there are over 10,000 more deaths than expected in the UK per week.

[BarrileteCosmico]

https://unherd.com/2020/04/which-epidemiologist-do-you-believe/

interesting article that essentially argues that whether you believe in herd immunity or quarantine essentially comes down to your world outlook and not scientific facts

[zigra]

"Why UK's death toll could soon be the worst in Europe" - the current headline on the Telegraph's website.

Is there going to be any political fall out in the UK over the handling of the pandemic? You could argue they've done a really bad job on this, being unprepared and reacting too late.

Although Italy and Spain have been badly hit, I'm under the impression that the governments over there are doing OK in the peoples' opinion. The UK had more time to react, but are not seeing any benefit from it.


Also: "Nearly 25,000 deaths from all causes were recorded in the UK in week of the Easter bank holiday - 108% above the expected number for this time of year."

So, that's about 13,000 more deaths in a week than expected. The UK's official Covid death toll is about 21,000. Difficult not to think that the actual death toll is much, much higher if there are over 10,000 more deaths than expected in the UK per week.

To be fair so far it's only been one week in which the excess mortality has been above 10k so I wouldn't say it's per week yet.

If you look at the latest 4 weeks we have data on (you can download the date here https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/datasets/weeklyprovisionalfiguresondeathsregisteredinenglandandwales) you'll see that the excess mortality in that time period is around 27k. Before that there was hardly any excess mortality.

Now it should be noted that this is data for the time period "up to week ending 17 April 2020" only. We should also consider that there could be other reasons for the increased mortality rate.

[Robespierre]

Honestly I'm not satisfied. At all.

There is no plan, neither short nor long term, nobody knows what will happen  on  fields such as health, transport, work.
We have to live with the virus, ok we' ve  known it for two months,  but to live together to it what it   means, we  go on until the hospitals get clogged? is there a plan to multiply  resources? Who cares  if I can jog since 4 May !
So take it one day at a time , we are behind the will of the individuals, civic sense, we wait  how people act , if it goes wrong , here another round of lockdown .
It misses a vision and a transparent communication of the things.

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