Re: The Coronavirus Thread - Part 3

[Robespierre]

Honestly I'm not satisfied. At all.

There is no plan, neither short nor long term, nobody knows what will happen  on  fields such as health, transport, work.
We have to live with the virus, ok we' ve  known it for two months,  but to live together to it what it   means, we  go on until the hospitals get clogged? is there a plan to multiply  resources? Who cares  if I can jog since 4 May !
So take it one day at a time , we are behind the will of the individuals, civic sense, we wait  how people act , if it goes wrong , here another round of lockdown .
It misses a vision and a transparent communication of the things.

[sportsczy]

NY has been doing random antibody tests for 2 weeks now.  A lot of data coming in.  

So according to Cuomo, 31% of NYC residents have tested positive in antibody testing in the current sample.  That's 3 million people.  Roughly 17k deaths in NY state are in NYC.  That's a death rate of 0.6%.

[CBarca]

Seems to be roughly in line with what scientists have mostly coalesced around as far as an IFR for COVID-19

At this point in the disease I think there can be confidence the IFR is around 0.5%

[Art Morte]

NY has been doing random antibody tests for 2 weeks now.  A lot of data coming in.  

So according to Cuomo, 31% of NYC residents have tested positive in antibody testing in the current sample.  That's 3 million people.  Roughly 17k deaths in NY state are in NYC.  That's a death rate of 0.6%.

Seems to be roughly in line with what scientists have mostly coalesced around as far as an IFR for COVID-19

At this point in the disease I think there can be confidence the IFR is around 0.5%

I'm not sure about the death rate, because it's increasingly looking like Covid kills in many more ways than just by attacking your lungs. Cardiac arrests, strokes, blood clots, issues with different organs... It's possible that respiratory problems have been put too much in the limelight because they are obvious to detect.

If we think about those UK numbers that there are tens of thousands more deaths occurring in the country than at the same time last year, but so far only some 21,000 are attributed to Covid-19... To me that could suggest that there are thousands of people dying from these non-respiratory causes, brought on by Covid.

This possibility is actually kind of scary, because you could have mild or no visible symptoms and think you're doing fine... and then just drop dead from a covid-caused heart attack.

[Zagadka]

Reporting from Poland.

Mood is a lot more relaxed now among the public compared to 2 weeks ago. I myself have stopped wearing gloves when going out and instead of masks (I have 3 n95 sitting on my desk) I simple wear a thin scarf which allows me to actually BREATH !! and take it on and off depending on the situation or have it on the tip of my nose. How is the gov't expecting to enforce mandatory mask in ALL time when the temperature will hit mid 30s in a couple of months? More people will die of suffocation than the cv. I'm a healthy young man in my 20s and I had difficulty breathing after 20 minutes. I personally spend about minimum 2 hours under the sun everyday....1 very early in the morning and one in the afternoon. have been feeling the amazing effect in my health and energy.

Police are patrolling the parks to enforce the mandatory mask law (it's mandatory EVERYWHERE...but today around 7am I was at the park, and one of the police officers (cute blonde in her 20s) was using my tactic of leaving the tip of her nose exposed.

Parks a lots busier, same with the market. You can't cage the people inside forever especially with the weather improving. Overall the mood is a mood of rebellion and "Enough is enough, time to start process of returning to normalcy one way or another."

the regime is expected to move to second phase of de-frosting the economy by next Monday. it won't make a difference to me, until phase 3 at least where gastronomy and malls will be open. There's talks of temperature checks upon entry to malls...removal of all benches from the malls, so you can only shop and GTFO.

Not sure how gastronomy will work especially with the mandatory mask law. how the hell are we supposed to eat while wearing a mask? Can we sit outside for a beer? many questions marks....the local Kebab shop finally opened yesterday after 6 weeks just for take out and I got my delicious doner to support the guy .

phase 4 (and final) of re-opening includes hairdressers, GYMs (most important!) and cinemas with some restrictions. Can't see it happening before mid-June.

Pubs, bars, and clubs aren't even mentioned in these 4 phases. so chances are they'll all go bankrupt. Mental when you think about it.

Polish Ekstraklasa also confirmed to run behind closed doors starting end of May from what I read. @Myestas can confirm maybe?!

p.s. this whole talk of 2 meters SOCIAL DISTANCING in all shops is complete unicorn fantasy that is nowhere applicable in real life. Unless you have long queue of people waiting outside. I think we're over that part of the lockdown. I'm starting to come more and more to the conclusion that one way or another we'll all catch this virus and that's the best way to defeat it.

People talk about putting entire life and the world until "a Vaccine is found." are very unrealistic. ...just some of the few issues with it:
- There is no guarantee a vaccine will be found at all. Hell, we don't even have a super effective flu vaccine yet
- There is no guarantee a vaccine will be successful and create anti-bodies, since WHO (who the fuck knows if they're legit or not) said previously infected people can be infected again...then what's the point of anti-bodies?

[BarrileteCosmico]

NY has been doing random antibody tests for 2 weeks now.  A lot of data coming in.  

So according to Cuomo, 31% of NYC residents have tested positive in antibody testing in the current sample.  That's 3 million people.  Roughly 17k deaths in NY state are in NYC.  That's a death rate of 0.6%.

Seems to be roughly in line with what scientists have mostly coalesced around as far as an IFR for COVID-19

At this point in the disease I think there can be confidence the IFR is around 0.5%

I'm not sure about the death rate, because it's increasingly looking like Covid kills in many more ways than just by attacking your lungs. Cardiac arrests, strokes, blood clots, issues with different organs... It's possible that respiratory problems have been put too much in the limelight because they are obvious to detect.

If we think about those UK numbers that there are tens of thousands more deaths occurring in the country than at the same time last year, but so far only some 21,000 are attributed to Covid-19... To me that could suggest that there are thousands of people dying from these non-respiratory causes, brought on by Covid.

This possibility is actually kind of scary, because you could have mild or no visible symptoms and think you're doing fine... and then just drop dead from a covid-caused heart attack.

This is what is happening with silent hypoxia. Your oxygen levels suffer but you don't notice, until they collapse and within a few days you are gone. Although it would be respiratory in nature.

If you don't mind getting a bit freaked out read this about everything we still don't know about this virus: https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2020/04/we-still-dont-know-how-the-coronavirus-is-killing-us.html

[zigra]

NY has been doing random antibody tests for 2 weeks now.  A lot of data coming in.  

So according to Cuomo, 31% of NYC residents have tested positive in antibody testing in the current sample.  That's 3 million people.  Roughly 17k deaths in NY state are in NYC.  That's a death rate of 0.6%.

Seems to be roughly in line with what scientists have mostly coalesced around as far as an IFR for COVID-19

At this point in the disease I think there can be confidence the IFR is around 0.5%

I'm not sure about the death rate, because it's increasingly looking like Covid kills in many more ways than just by attacking your lungs. Cardiac arrests, strokes, blood clots, issues with different organs... It's possible that respiratory problems have been put too much in the limelight because they are obvious to detect.

If we think about those UK numbers that there are tens of thousands more deaths occurring in the country than at the same time last year, but so far only some 21,000 are attributed to Covid-19... To me that could suggest that there are thousands of people dying from these non-respiratory causes, brought on by Covid.

This possibility is actually kind of scary, because you could have mild or no visible symptoms and think you're doing fine... and then just drop dead from a covid-caused heart attack.

This is absolutely possible. Excess mortality is a lot higher than just the official numbers in many (most/all?) countries that were hit hard by Corona I think. While in theory this could be down to something else it's obviously quite unlikely considering the numbers and the timing.

It's also worth considering that the antibody tests are far from perfect and the studies so far haven't exactly been great.

[Myesyats]

Polish Ekstraklasa also confirmed to run behind closed doors starting end of May from what I read. @Myestas can confirm maybe?!

Yeah, they are preparing to start testing players soon and then its supposed to resume behind closed doors. Thats the plan.

The streets/parks are busy in general, its like not that much has changed except people are wearing masks, scarves or bandanas.

local courts and pitches will be opened soon too although with a limit i think.

[sportsczy]

Only tests with over 99% accuracy were released by the US. That's why there was a 2 week delay in sending them out...

[Nishankly]

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-52459030

Non-essential shops and markets will open their doors again from 11 May, but not bars and restaurants.

Stores will have the right to ask shoppers to wear masks, and should ensure they remain a metre (3ft) apart, the prime minister said.

In a relief to many, the French will be able to go outside again without a certificate confirming their intentions, and public gatherings of up to 10 people will be allowed. Crèches will also reopen - but with a maximum of 10 children in each group.

This assuming the curve flattens by May 11th or the confinement will be extended. That decision will made on 7th May

[Warrior]

Here the unlockdown process is started. About damn time !!

Daycares will re-open on may 11th. Hopefully my impolite upstairs neighbors will send their two little monsters there right away. Counting the days really.

I became a bit crazy, a sort of latent delirium, about the noise they make. Which objectively is not louder than usual, but now it's every day from 8 to 8 i can hear stumping and running, makes it far worse. The landlord offer me the appt on top floor for the same rent but she had no immediate solution. Unconsiously it's amplified it in my mind i think. Normally noises are not things i care about. So i deduct it is a side effect of quarantine on mental health.

And then i think of people in nursery homes including my own grandma who caught it, who see their friends die 1 by 1 waiting to be the next. Or a guy like Towns who lost his mother 59 years old, or the battered women locked h24 with violent husbands, or the people whose business is ruined. So many tragedies because of Covid, a very absurd and vicious enemy.

I laugh of those who riot for an immediate stop to the measures, the gradual approach is safer, why risk it all now that we finally got some good news

[elitedam]

Corona has been so tough on the economy that even Tupac came out of hiding to try to get unemployment.

https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/tupac-shakur-filed-unemployment-kentucky-governor-could-hardly-believe-it-n1195011

[Warrior]

Funny story tbh

[Jay29]

Remember those patients in South Korea who tested positive again? Well, experts are saying the tests picked up "dead" virus particles and returned a positive.

https://m-en.yna.co.kr/view/AEN20200429007051320

Also:

The committee further said it is virtually impossible for the virus to be reactivated unless the COVID-19 virus causes chronic infections.

"The COVID-19 virus does not invade inside of the cell nucleus and combine with a patient's DNA," Oh said. "It means that the virus does not create chronic infections."

Oh further said the COVID-19 virus is different from diseases such as HIV and hepatitis B in which the virus stays dormant inside of a cell nucleus and later causes chronic infection.

Fingers crossed this is actually the case.

[CBarca]

From a statistics point of view it's almost impossible to say that reinfection, at least in the short term, is plausible. Science is getting there.

I guess we'll wait and see for the longer term. If we can believe in similarity to other types of SARS, we should be OK longer term as well.

Reinfection is not something I'm presently worried about with respect to coronavirus, thankfully.

[sportsczy]

Good watch. I disagree with Tucker often... very often. However, i like his attitude towards debate... informed debate is one of the foundations of the US.

[CBarca]

There is so much wrong in that video it's hard to take seriously. I mean, I don't.

Let me just state the obvious: the Bakersfield doctors were deliberately misinterpreting statistics and deliberately lying to people.

They have been discredited by every major organization. By every expert. By medical associations.

These people are not the hill anyone should die on. This is like sharing research that the measles vaccine gives your kids autism and expecting Facebook to keep that shit up like it's a valid scientific viewpoint.

Informed debate means informed. It does not mean coming to a conversation armed with lies and then making a scene when you aren't allowed in. Informed debate relies on good faith actors. And Tucker, like the doctors, is not arguing in good faith. In fact, when does he?

[sportsczy]

Free speech... you get that right?  You don't censor. These are two guys giving their opinion.  If you don't like their opinion, you create a video that disproves theirs.

I don't care of they say that the sky is purple based on their interpretation of the data.

It's the 1st Amendment ffs.  I don't understand how this is even up for debate.

People need to stop rationalizing the compromise of our constitution. There is no compromise. We're a free country by right, not privilege. You cannot take those rights away because they are sometimes annoying and/or inconvenient.

[Freeza]

You can't convince me Sports wasn't part of those protests the other day

[sportsczy]

You can't convince me Sports wasn't part of those protests the other day

They have the right to protest as long as they don't break any laws.  Again, this is part of the 1st Amendment of the US Constitution.  It's a right, not a privilege anyone in the US can take away.

The First Amendment of the U.S. Constitution states that "Congress shall make no law respecting an establishment of religion, or prohibiting the free exercise thereof; or abridging the freedom of speech, or of the press; or the right of the people peaceably to assemble, and to petition the Government for a redress of grievances."

Again, 1st Amendment... numero uno... top of the list. This is as sacred as it gets in the US.

[elitedam]

You can't convince me Sports wasn't part of those protests the other day

They have the right to protest as long as they don't break any laws.  Again, this is part of the 1st Amendment of the US Constitution.  It's a right, not a privilege anyone in the US can take away.

The First Amendment of the U.S. Constitution states that "Congress shall make no law respecting an establishment of religion, or prohibiting the free exercise thereof; or abridging the freedom of speech, or of the press; or the right of the people peaceably to assemble, and to petition the Government for a redress of grievances."

Again, 1st Amendment...  numero uno... top of the list.  This is as sacred as it gets in the US.  

How is the government involved in the takedown of the video?

[CBarca]

Then file a lawsuit against Youtube. You won't win. Youtube is allowed to do this if they want. You're here talking about the First Amendment but this isn't a legal question mark. This isn't a government action.

But if you want to instead change your standard to some sort of moralistic question of whether it's OK to remove a Youtube video of the "doctors", then we can talk about that.

I have grave reservations about the removing of a lot of material. However, I think it's important to have good faith discussions about the merit of the material that is removed. Tucker was not involved in good faith discussion.

Personally, I do believe that tech companies have some responsibility to eliminate bots. I think they have some responsibility to eliminate fake news. I believe that, especially in a time where false information on COVID-19 is not only extremely rampant, but also extremely dangerous to the health and well being of people, I think there should be some leeway for tech companies to remove what is essentially fake news/fake information/heavily biased/inaccurate information about COVID-19.

You have heard of the famous case where it is not protected speech under the first amendment to yell "fire!" in a crowded theater without there being a fire. While it's not the same situation, I don't think it's unreasonable to say that the world under the COVID-19 pandemic is the theater, and yelling about inaccurate statistics, dangerous statements, and false evidence to compel individuals to distrust public health experts, the government, and health organizations, is not too different (in this context) to yelling "fire!".

EDIT: I'm going to add an addendum here to offer some clarity. That last analogy is one where I argue about the stark danger of fake news in the COVID-19 era. It is not me making a legal and/or Constitutional basis for the government to remove fake news about COVID-19. If the government were to have taken down the video of the "doctors", then I would have opposed it. Because while I support that video being deleted, I do not agree with government censorship of it.

[elitedam]

So there was no government action?

So this is just another case of people yelling "First Amendment" while ignoring its first word.

[CBarca]

So there was no government action?

So this is just another case of people yelling "First Amendment" while ignoring its first word.

Ahh, si, correcto.

reference:

[sportsczy]

Youtube is considered "media" and it falls under Private Censorship.

There is in fact a groundbreaking case that the US Supreme Court is scheduled to hear (once it convenes again and depending on backlog).   So yes, there are a ton of lawsuits filed against social media platforms and the Supreme Court will rule on it.  Social media platforms have brought this on themselves.  They stayed out of censoring mostly and, because of their international scale, usually referred to Article 19 of the International Covenant on Civil and Political Rights, to make any forced decisions. “For companies to avoid infringing on international freedom of expression protections, a three-part test should be met: (1) companies should make sure their speech codes are not vague and (2) companies should select the least-intrusive means of (3) achieving legitimate public interest objectives when infringing on speech.”

But since they started censoring arbitrarily and subjectively over the past three years (starting as a response to Russia interference scandal that led to congressional hearings), they are at serious risk of having the Supreme Court rule to hold these online platforms to First Amendment standards.

It's a conservative Supreme Court and given that censorship from social media has mostly targeted extreme conservative thought...  they're likely going to get hammered.  It's actually good for them and the right thing to do.  Nobody can pressure or blame them for allowing people to express themselves freely within the law, no matter how repelling you find the content.

Here's a good primer:

https://www.abajournal.com/magazine/article/social-clashes-digital-free-speech

[sportsczy]

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/29/health/gilead-remdesivir-coronavirus.html

Looks like we may have something here... given the strictness of the FDA and the liability exposure in the US:

The Food and Drug Administration acknowledged that officials were discussing approval of remdesivir for treatment of Covid-19 patients, presumably under emergency use provisions.

Here's a description of the drug: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Remdesivir

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