Re: The US Politics Thread

by BarrileteCosmico Thu Nov 10, 2022 11:29 am

The media selling this loss as a win because they didn't lose as bad as expected is a big doublethink moment

by VivaStPauli Thu Nov 10, 2022 11:37 am

BarrileteCosmico wrote:The media selling this loss as a win because they didn't lose as bad as expected is a big doublethink moment

No it's not. If FOX and MSNBC agree on something, it's worth investigating.
The Republicans underperforming significantly compared to historical precedent warrants a closer look, especially when a lot of the candidates that cast doubt on the 2020 election lost, or underperformed.

That is a win. Not necessarily for the Biden administration, but for the political culture of the US.
Not a huge win, yes.
But it's not bad either. Means the voters won't go along with infinite insanity.

by El Gunner Thu Nov 10, 2022 11:43 am

BarrileteCosmico wrote:The media selling this loss as a win because they didn't lose as bad as expected is a big doublethink moment

which side is the media supposed to be again? Dem or Rep?

who won? Dem or Rep?

by BarrileteCosmico Thu Nov 10, 2022 2:52 pm

@viva it's not. The dems are losing control of congress, the fact that they're losing it by 10ish instead of 40ish shouldn't be enough of a consolation to treat it as a win with exuberance. It's like this United playing against this City and celebrating they only lost by 1 goal.

It'll pass as soon as the lower chamber starts creating commissions to investigate Biden and family, impeach him, etc.

by VivaStPauli Thu Nov 10, 2022 3:37 pm

You're missing the point.
The incumbent party ALWAYS loses big in the midterms. They lost far, far less than expected, especially considering Bidens horrible approvement ratings.

And, crucially, the worst performers in the Republican party were election deniers.

Of course congress is going to end up being a shit show, but we knew that. It's still nice to see that voters won't just eat any and all bullshit GOP wingnuts regurgitate.

We're still heading towards terrifying times, and everything about American politics sucks.
But this bit I'm pointing out is good news.

by Myesyats Thu Nov 10, 2022 5:38 pm

VivaStPauli wrote:
Myesyats wrote:I'm just happy that boebert will probably lose

Why does it take a week to count 5% of the vote????

She's only 63 votes behind now, lol.
Still counting though.

Shit looks like she's regained the lead. I cant believe people actually vote for this shit on a stick. Wasnt she a prostitute before this?

by CBarca Fri Nov 11, 2022 12:33 am

BarrileteCosmico wrote:@viva it's not. The dems are losing control of congress, the fact that they're losing it by 10ish instead of 40ish shouldn't be enough of a consolation to treat it as a win with exuberance. It's like this United playing against this City and celebrating they only lost by 1 goal.

It'll pass as soon as the lower chamber starts creating commissions to investigate Biden and family, impeach him, etc.

Media was absolutely begging for a Dem slaughter and has been for weeks. If anything they're massively disappointed. See: doom and gloom over good inflation numbers today. Obviously I'm generalizing but...

In any case, Viva is correct. Dems massively overperformed and as some smart individuals have pointed out, the difference between the two chambers could feasibly come down to NY republicans who were just elected and might be swingy. Not that the GOP can't continue a valiant stand of saying no to everything, but it's much more difficult in the house than the Senate, especially when some of those constituents want reelection and could potentially be wheeled and dealed. If Dems increase their margins in the Senate, they could feasibly pass some more legislation without reconciliation. We'll see what the final margin is.

Your example is flawed and oversimplified because margins dictate only only a W/L or a tie in football. The margins dictate a wide range of legislative success results in politics, you know this. 52 senators is massively different than 50. If Dems end up with 51 or 52 senators and a legislative chamber where they are in low single digits... some legislation can pass. The House is not the Senate.

The other option would be to be so far behind that there are no possible ways make inroads on legislation whatsoever. Biden would just be in a cold war standoff.

There's reason for congratulations. Shit, even in the sporting context, losing 1-0 when everyone expected to get shellacked is sometimes even worth being happy about.

by elitedam Fri Nov 11, 2022 1:02 am

BarrileteCosmico wrote:The media selling this loss as a win because they didn't lose as bad as expected is a big doublethink moment

I disagree with that. The conditions were ripe for a decisive Republican victory, and they didn't pull it off. I don't think the Democrats had a great night, but they did overperform, and that does matter.

The weird narrative that I see being pushed that I don't understand is how great DeSantis did. I feel like his success was a result of Florida turning into a solid red state. Republicans crushed it there. But DeSantis only ran one point better than Marco Rubio. It makes no sense to me.

by CBarca Sat Nov 12, 2022 4:07 am

Btw, Dems are still in with a shout (albeit still long odds) on actually *holding* the house. Results are still coming in.

by FennecFox7 Sat Nov 12, 2022 5:44 pm

Gonna have to side with CBarca on this. Dems have really stepped it up these midterms. Huge surprise to me and I admit I was wrong. Republicans are a mess right now. They got sucked into the cultural war completely and “but the left” nonsense.

by McLewis Sun Nov 13, 2022 4:13 am

I'm just glad to see that the independent redistricting committee really paid off here in Michigan. Without it, the Michigan Legislature would very likely still be in GOP control regardless if Whitmer beat Dixon or not. Now, the Legislature has been flipped blue and the Democrats have a real mandate to govern in this state for the first time in decades. I still can't believe that Grand Rapids, the GOP stronghold of the state, will be represented in Congress by a Democrat for the first time in over 30 years. If that's not their flag being captured, I don't know what is.

Of course, it also helps that the GOP ran some absolutely shitty candidates for spots like Governor and Secretary of State. Dixon was defined easily by her abortion stance and Dems hammered her repeatedly with ads about it. Karamo's an absolute wackjob that needed to be kept far away from anything to do with overseeing elections.

by McLewis Sun Nov 13, 2022 4:26 am

Also, it looks like both Cortez Masto and Kelly won their Senate races, so this puts the Dems at 50 seats to the GOP's 49 and that's with Georgia heading to a runoff in a few weeks. Doesn't matter who wins that one now as Dems will maintain control of the Senate.

All that really matters now is whether they'll be at 51 should Warnock win, that will completely nullify the influence of obstructionists like Manchin and Sinema. If he loses, they will maintain that outsized influence.

Astonishing stuff here.

by McLewis Sun Nov 13, 2022 4:46 am

The GOP still looks headed for taking over in the House however though their majority is going to be very slim. There's about 25 seats that still haven't been decided.

One spark of hope for Dems is the very impressive win in Washington State. Marie Gluesenkamp Perez's win will probably end up being the most surprising of all of the Dem victories during this election. The polling algos gave her a 2% chance of winning. That's a flip Dems didn't even know they were capable of pulling off. They totally wrote off that race and got the seat anyway. If more surprises like this happen with the remaining 20 or so seats, the GOP's path to the House majority may very well evaporate before their very eyes.

by Myesyats Sun Nov 13, 2022 12:25 pm

McLewis wrote:Also, it looks like both Cortez Masto and Kelly won their Senate races, so this puts the Dems at 50 seats to the GOP's 49 and that's with Georgia heading to a runoff in a few weeks. Doesn't matter who wins that one now as Dems will maintain control of the Senate.

All that really matters now is whether they'll be at 51 should Warnock win, that will completely nullify the influence of obstructionists like Manchin and Sinema. If he loses, they will maintain that outsized influence.

Astonishing stuff here.

And the midterms were supposed to be a high point for republicans, it's not even bad but terrible from their pov.

by Pedram Sun Nov 13, 2022 1:19 pm

GOP fucked around and found out, ironically they killed themselves by killing abortion.

by Pedram Sun Nov 13, 2022 1:23 pm

sportsczy wrote:Asking for only one side to compromise = nothing will happen. Ever. Complete stalemate.

The result is... Republicans will very likely sweep house and senate in November and also very likely the presidency in 2 years. Will reverse every Dem policy (even the good ones). 2 years after that, Dems will win elections and reverse all the Rep policies (even the good ones).

by Myesyats Sun Nov 13, 2022 2:43 pm

It's very likely that Trump will be the candidate in 2024 so winning the presidency doesnt seem so obvious either lol

It might be that there's simply fewer republicans now since they, sadly, were disproportionately affected by covid. Their vax-less "freedom" might have backfired as well

by McLewis Sun Nov 13, 2022 5:27 pm

I think Trump will be a candidate, but these results don't really tell me he will be the candidate in 2024.

He needed that red wave in order to take the 2024 nomination with minimal opposition, just as he did in 2020. Without it now, he's going to have viable challengers who will position themselves as supporting his agenda, but with a more polished veneer. Some may even positions themselves between the middle and the far right in order to appeal to enough mainstream Republicans and Trumpists to be a compromise candidate. DeSantis fits that bill.

by Myesyats Sun Nov 13, 2022 8:04 pm

I believe it's time to circle back to this theory from 2015: Is Donald Trump a Democratic secret agent?

by VivaStPauli Mon Nov 14, 2022 12:27 am

Myesyats wrote:It's very likely that Trump will be the candidate in 2024 so winning the presidency doesnt seem so obvious either lol

It might be that there's simply fewer republicans now since they, sadly, were disproportionately affected by covid. Their vax-less "freedom" might have backfired as well

Will be very hard for Trump to see of DeSantis as the GOP candidate. Trump lost a general election already and DeSantis won a supposed swing state by roundabout 20 points, and there's another hurricane heading there, and DeSantis fucking loves hurricanes.

Would not bet on Trump right now.

But even if it's DeSantis, the midterms tell us that far-right GOP candidates aren't the shit right now, so in a general election the Republicans really should run a moderate if they want to win. It's just that they kept skewing the primaries towards fringe candidates, so not sure if they can nominate a moderate. Interesting times.

Considering the shit show that recent elections have been, that's kind of encouraging.

Still not great times, but you know. Considering many of us were ready to write American democracy's obituary, it's pretty good.

by McLewis Mon Nov 14, 2022 3:38 pm

If the Dems are given a mandate in Congress (even if it's a slim one in both chambers), they have pretty much only 2023 to act on their agenda before we're right back at the start of another election season by January 2024. It won't be that straightforward of course as nothing ever is with American politics, but they absolutely cannot let Republicans scare them into moderating their agenda.

If the GOP ends up with the House however, things become a lot more complicated naturally.

by VivaStPauli Tue Nov 15, 2022 8:14 am

I think we're all expecting the GOP end up in control of the house. But in the house things are a lot more fluid, it's not unrealistic to get moderate bills through with bipartisan support. It's the senators that absolutely will deny pensions to 9/11 first responders if it means screwing over the other side.
And that goes for Dems and Republicans.
Just kidding, it's the Republicans who are the assholes in this. Almost always.

by VivaStPauli Tue Nov 15, 2022 8:15 am

That's a bad example because the Republicans actually did block money to first responders (or was it vets?) in the house as well in the past, but my point remains valid.

by McLewis Tue Nov 15, 2022 3:00 pm

Yeah I take your overall point. With the margins still so thin in both chambers, I'm not holding my breath on big stuff happening. Codifying Roe v Wade would be perhaps one of the biggest things to get done in 2023. I would love to tell you that gun legislation should be on the agenda, but it won't as that scares off moderates.

So we'll see.

by futbol_bill Tue Nov 15, 2022 4:46 pm

There are a number of benefits for Democrats, to what has happened to these midterms.

The first is control of Senate plus the narrow margin in the House, means that the Republicans can’t prohibit everything from getting done nor can they really do much of their mischief they had intended to do.

The second is Trump’s exposure to his failures. He seems intent on forging ahead, even though there should be no chance of getting elected again, nor likely even getting the nomination. Trump being Trump will fight tooth and nail with the likely result will be a fractured Republican party for next election.

If the democrats do the smart thing as carefully choosing their agenda and candidates, to the centre left a bit, but not to far left, they should be able to not only elect a president, but majority house and senate.

by Myesyats Tue Nov 15, 2022 5:25 pm

VivaStPauli wrote:
Myesyats wrote:It's very likely that Trump will be the candidate in 2024 so winning the presidency doesnt seem so obvious either lol

It might be that there's simply fewer republicans now since they, sadly, were disproportionately affected by covid. Their vax-less "freedom" might have backfired as well

Will be very hard for Trump to see of DeSantis as the GOP candidate. Trump lost a general election already and DeSantis won a supposed swing state by roundabout 20 points, and there's another hurricane heading there, and DeSantis fucking loves hurricanes.

Would not bet on Trump right now.

But even if it's DeSantis, the midterms tell us that far-right GOP candidates aren't the shit right now, so in a general election the Republicans really should run a moderate if they want to win. It's just that they kept skewing the primaries towards fringe candidates, so not sure if they can nominate a moderate. Interesting times.

Considering the shit show that recent elections have been, that's kind of encouraging.

Still not great times, but you know. Considering many of us were ready to write American democracy's obituary, it's pretty good.

Trumpism brother. Any form of rejection of this destructive belief system is very welcome. I was just reading Rip Van Winkle recently as well as the Legend of Sleepy Hollow. I mean, this is a criticism of the American society dating 200 years back but still rings true and Trumpism embodies all the worst aspects of it such as anti-intellectualism with the fake news bs, rejection of fact and a president who has the mental capacity of a 3rd grader, an attitude towards learning/intellectualism as something outside of mainstream society..

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