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Post by Pedram Mon Feb 06, 2017 6:42 pm

Angela Merkel's party falls behind Germany's centre-left opposition SPD for first time in a decade.

Angela Merkel’s CDU political party has fallen into second place behind Germany’s centre-left opposition for the first time in a decade, according to a new poll.

The survey, carried out by pollsters INSA for Germany’s Bild newspaper, found Ms Merkel’s Christian democrats on 30 per cent, down three from the previous poll.

The German Social Democratic Party (SPD), which has trailed Ms Merkel’s party in the polls for years, was meanwhile up four points to 31 per cent – putting it just slightly ahead.

A German election polling average maintained by German newspaper Der Spiegel has not had the SPD ahead on average since late 2006.

Though only the findings of a single poll, the latest results appear to be a symbolic watershed moment in Germany politics, which Ms Merkel has dominated for over a decade.

The findings of a significant boost for the SPD are also corroborated by another poll conducted by Emnid for Bild am Sonntag. That survey recorded a six-point jump for the SPD, reportedly the biggest ever for the party in a single poll by that firm.

The shifting electoral landscape comes just months ahead of crunch German Federal elections in September of this year – raising the possibility that Ms Merkel could be ousted as Chancellor after six months of Brexit negotiations.

The boost to the SPD’s fortunes appears to have been prompted by the appointment of Martin Schulz, former European Parliament President, to the party’s leadership.

Mr Schulz has publicly presented a more hard-line approach again Britain and Brexit than Ms Merkel, having accused top Tories of having left “rubble behind them in a bid to fuel their personal ambitions”. He has also said that Brussels would need to “defend the interests of its citizens, just as the UK will do”.

The Chancellor Ms Merkel has survived in part by adopting the policies of her opponents whenever they appear to be on the verge of finding a chink in her armour – posing the possibility that she might adopt Mr Schulz’s more hardline anti-Brexit approach.

The German federal elections come five months after France picks its new President. The final round of that contest is likely to be between a centre-right candidate and far-right candidate Marine Le Pen.

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/angela-merkel-cdu-german-poll-spd-martin-schulz-brexit-a7565291.html

Looks like Merkel is going down but don't get too happy Trump supporters. Martin Schulz, former European Parliament President is even more pro-EU than Merkel.
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Post by VivaStPauli Tue Feb 07, 2017 10:53 pm

Either way, no matter how sad this election turns out, expect a Pro-Eu chancellor. Schulz or Merkel, no matter. As long as the AFD doesn't get 51% of the votes (they won't), Germany won't significantly change their foreign policy. Maybe get nicer to Southern Europe if Schulz wins, or any other constellation gets Schäuble ousted from the ministry of finance.
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Post by BarrileteCosmico Mon Jul 19, 2021 6:45 pm

Looks like Merkel has recently discovered global warming and now thinks it's a problem, all from one of the most influential carbon enablers in the world... maybe it's a sign that everyone is coming around though, even if a tragedy is needed first.
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Post by VivaStPauli Thu Jul 22, 2021 9:54 pm

Nah, she's just trying to get voters.
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Post by rincon Thu Jul 22, 2021 10:43 pm

@BarrileteCosmico wrote:Looks like Merkel has recently discovered global warming and now thinks it's a problem, all from one of the most influential carbon enablers in the world... maybe it's a sign that everyone is coming around though, even if a tragedy is needed first.

While this is also likely true. It probably has a lot to do with the recent surge of the green party in Germany
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Post by VivaStPauli Sat Jul 24, 2021 12:12 pm

Also, the CDU candidate, Laschet (Merkel's boi) has now been caught on camera laughing at the site of the flooding, he's lied over his own state's record in flood prevention and about the CO2 levels emitted by industry in his state.

It's really depressing he's gonna win.
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Post by futbol Sat Jul 24, 2021 3:41 pm

@VivaStPauli wrote:Also, the CDU candidate, Laschet (Merkel's boi) has now been caught on camera laughing at the site of the flooding, he's lied over his own state's record in flood prevention and about the CO2 levels emitted by industry in his state.

It's really depressing he's gonna win.


Quality of politicians these days is atrocious but the alternative would be a woman who was made Green party's top candidate simply for being a woman (Green party's statutes: "If a woman and man compete for the same position, always give it to the woman"), who got exposed for faking her biography (somehow received a Master's degree from a foreign private University within 1 year and without having to write a Master thesis, without even having a Bachelor's degree to begin with aka her rich daddy bought her an academic degree) and published a book which also got exposed as copy-paste plagiarism. She also conveniently "forgot" to tax bonus payments.

She is the epitome of the incompetent but privileged suburban kid who gets carried to the top by quota regulations and daddy's money.

There is also nothing "green" about the green party. No word about the biggest environmental polluter on the planet: the military complex. They are completely in line with NATO and transatlantic interests. Their only vision for a green Germany is to make stuff expensive so everyone uses cargo bikes instead of cars aka Germany becomes China from 20 years ago.

So who votes for atrocities like that? The esoteric Beamten-Hipster mom from Prenzlauer Berg who still drives her 14 year old wonder child to school on her cargo bike before visiting the next Alnatura-Laden and then starting her work day at one of Berlin's 3 million Delivery-Start-Ups. And Hans.

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Post by Robespierre Sat Jul 24, 2021 4:16 pm

So it's true that Green party is virtually the 2nd German party , overtaking SPD (more and more in crisis)?

I got graduated with a thesis on German Social-Democrat, so I know good their historical excursus and their implosion doesn't make me indifferent

Not really surprised though, it quite follows the story of " some centrist-left coalitions", the centrist/conservatice/chrstian democratic party strengthens his position and logorates his "false" ally. Leftst party joines for ambition of power , he gets deceived on basis of some concessions ( the law on Mindestlohn, in this case ? ) , but that's without really dictating the executive's agenda.
His electorate doesn't forgive this alliance , sensing betrayal, and consensus collapses. Same happened in Italy decades ago..
Having said that SPD 's crisis has deeper roots . What about them?
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Post by futbol Sat Jul 24, 2021 5:02 pm

@Robespierre wrote:So it's true that Green party is virtually the 2nd German party , overtaking SPD (more and more in crisis)?

I got graduated with a thesis on German Social-Democrat, so I know good their historical excursus and  their implosion doesn't make me indifferent

Not really surprised though,  it quite follows the story of " some centrist-left coalitions",  the centrist/conservatice/chrstian democratic party strengthens his position and logorates his "false" ally. Leftst party  joines  for ambition of  power , he gets deceived on basis of some concessions ( the law on Mindestlohn, in this case ? ) , but that's without really dictating the executive's agenda.
His electorate doesn't forgive this alliance ,  sensing betrayal, and consensus collapses. Same happened in Italy decades ago..
Having said that  SPD 's crisis  has deeper roots . What about them?


Merkel destroyed the SPD by turning the CDU into the new SPD.

Under Merkel we got same sex marriage, mass immigration and phasing out of nuclear energy. This is the most conservative non-racist party in Germany. lol

Then we have 2 more parties even more left from that with the typical identity politics shtick: "Leave no one behind" open borders, universal basic income, "LGB_entire_alphabet+ are the superior humans", "no cars in inner cities" and "you must say 'people that menstruate' instead of 'woman'" type of ideologies. If that's for you then you vote for Green Party or The Left.

Where is the room for SPD? They are surplus.

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Post by Pedram Sat Jul 24, 2021 7:44 pm

SPD's are just Merkel's lackeys at this point tbh, no wonder Greens are overtaking them as the main "center-left" party.
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Post by Babun Thu Jul 29, 2021 8:39 pm

@futbol wrote:
@Robespierre wrote:So it's true that Green party is virtually the 2nd German party , overtaking SPD (more and more in crisis)?

I got graduated with a thesis on German Social-Democrat, so I know good their historical excursus and  their implosion doesn't make me indifferent

Not really surprised though,  it quite follows the story of " some centrist-left coalitions",  the centrist/conservatice/chrstian democratic party strengthens his position and logorates his "false" ally. Leftst party  joines  for ambition of  power , he gets deceived on basis of some concessions ( the law on Mindestlohn, in this case ? ) , but that's without really dictating the executive's agenda.
His electorate doesn't forgive this alliance ,  sensing betrayal, and consensus collapses. Same happened in Italy decades ago..
Having said that  SPD 's crisis  has deeper roots . What about them?


Merkel destroyed the SPD by turning the CDU into the new SPD.

Under Merkel we got same sex marriage, mass immigration and phasing out of nuclear energy. This is the most conservative non-racist party in Germany. lol

Then we have 2 more parties even more left from that with the typical identity politics shtick: "Leave no one behind" open borders, universal basic income, "LGB_entire_alphabet+ are the superior humans", "no cars in inner cities" and "you must say 'people that menstruate' instead of 'woman'" type of ideologies. If that's for you then you vote for Green Party or The Left.

Where is the room for SPD? They are surplus.

I'm with you on board, going to vote for FDP. CDU is in a degenerate state right now. They've got to get rid of all of the "weiter so" old farts. Baerbock is a piece of shit quota candidate but at least the Greens offer alternatives. So whoever wants to vote "left" they are better off with them.
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Post by VivaStPauli Mon Aug 02, 2021 2:21 pm

IMHO the whole Baerbock shaming is just meme material, she didn't fuck up more than Laschet or Scholz, Scholz is involved in the Cum-Ex scandal, Laschet in the very obvious mask buying corruption that is very typical of the Union who've been making shady deals since the founding of the Republic.

I get why you might vote FDP if you lean right-of-center, I just personally cannot be arsed to vote for an entitled rich prick like Lindner, boat shoe wearing motherfucker that he is, but at least it's not the swampy Union.

As is no secret I used to lean Green, but I might not vote for them this year because I don't want to accidentally support Schwarz-Grün.

Really going to be a tough one.

Politics wise I've actually been close to the SPD/Linke for years, both of them, but I haven't voted for either since 2005 due to the people they put forward.

I think we won't agree on much in politics anyway, Babun, but I'm happy you're not voting CDU. Even if you lean right, their corruption has to be punished, and AfD are fascists, so FDP is a decent choice.
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Post by VivaStPauli Mon Aug 02, 2021 2:27 pm

@futbol wrote:Merkel destroyed the SPD by turning the CDU into the new SPD.

Technically, though, doing that she destroyed the SPD not the CDU. People actually love SPD policies, they just hate the SPD.

Under Merkel we got same sex marriage, mass immigration and phasing out of nuclear energy. This is the most conservative non-racist party in Germany. lol
In defense of Merkel, nuclear power already got phased out under Schröder, which she then reversed, and then reversed the reversal after Fukishima.
And it's not really mass immigration, it's mass refugees, which is an important distinction juristically.

Then we have 2 more parties even more left from that with the typical identity politics shtick: "Leave no one behind" open borders, universal basic income, "LGB_entire_alphabet+ are the superior humans", "no cars in inner cities" and "you must say 'people that menstruate' instead of 'woman'" type of ideologies. If that's for you then you vote for Green Party or The Left.

Man I know you're taking the piss, but that actually kinda sounds appealing to me.
Well the Leave no one behind and no cars in inner cities parts. I'm not a huge identity politics person. That shit oughta be private unless someone's being discriminated against.

Where is the room for SPD? They are surplus.


Very true. With their core values being split up between the Linke and the CDU, and their usual clientele being effectively courted by the Grünen, they kind of lost their political home.

Though I would still posit that, if you talk politics with Germans, like 70% of people have very SPD-compatible world views, they just hate the party.
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Post by Robespierre Mon Aug 02, 2021 6:26 pm

Not very impressed about what I' ve read on CDU. I mean, it's normal.
CDU under Merkel is a party with strong pro European vocation , so it  means to support every civil - inclusive policies  that are storically battle horse of leftist parties but in this case it's also part of EU programme .
That's not enough for being new SPD or leftist country.
In fact CDU pursues also all those other EU policies markedly liberal etc that aren't leftist  at all
It's what PD makes in Italy, basically it's a party that believes that  it's enough to open to civil rights for  being a party worthy to represent the leftist electorate.
Civil rights must be pursued definitely, especially now, but a leftist party should not forget his historical battles as social rights: job, the working class, social justice, home, health, school .
PD is that party that pursues social rights but at same time it's arm of Confindustria, and electorate  reacts negatively whenever it feels that left becomes the arm of the bourgeoisie.
Well I don't know SPD inside, but I 'd not be surprised if they are facing a similar path , where supporter feel that SPD trampled on the party’s core values  . And it happens when leftist parties forget their social role.
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Post by Babun Tue Aug 03, 2021 1:54 pm

@Robespierre wrote:Not very impressed about what I' ve read on CDU. I mean, it's normal.
CDU under Merkel is a party with strong pro European vocation , so it  means to support every civil - inclusive policies  that are storically battle horse of leftist parties but in this case it's also part of EU programme .
That's not enough for being new SPD or leftist country.
In fact CDU pursues also all those other EU policies markedly liberal etc that aren't leftist  at all
It's what PD makes in Italy, basically it's a party that believes that  it's enough to open to civil rights for  being a party worthy to represent the leftist electorate.
Civil rights must be pursued definitely, especially now, but a leftist party should not forget his historical battles as social rights: job, the working class, social justice, home, health, school .
PD is that party that pursues social rights but at same time it's arm of Confindustria, and electorate  reacts negatively whenever it feels that left becomes the arm of the bourgeoisie.
Well I don't know SPD inside, but I 'd not be surprised if they are facing a similar path , where supporter feel that SPD trampled on the party’s core values  . And it happens when leftist parties forget their social role.

This is my beef with all the left parties. I get inclusion and everything else but basics should be 1st priority. I get the feeling they're trying to distract from real problems and the sheep follow them. The old school leftist, Sahra Wagenknecht, pointed out exactly the issues I mentioned : minimum wages, inflation, housing, healthcare etc.
The party, "die Linke", is trying to kick her out for stating the obvious Very Happy
@VivaStPauli wrote:IMHO the whole Baerbock shaming is just meme material, she didn't fuck up more than Laschet or Scholz, Scholz is involved in the Cum-Ex scandal, Laschet in the very obvious mask buying corruption that is very typical of the Union who've been  making shady deals since the founding of the Republic.

I get why you  might vote FDP if you lean right-of-center, I just personally cannot be arsed to vote for an entitled rich prick like Lindner, boat shoe wearing motherfucker that he is, but at least it's not the swampy Union.

As is no secret I used to lean Green, but I might not vote for them this year because I don't want to accidentally support Schwarz-Grün.

Really going to be a tough one.

Politics wise I've actually been close to the SPD/Linke for years, both of them, but I haven't voted for either since 2005 due to the people they put forward.

I think we won't agree on much in politics anyway, Babun, but I'm happy you're not voting CDU. Even if you lean right, their corruption has to be punished, and AfD are fascists, so FDP is a decent choice.

You forgot Wirecard scandal. Scholz prefered the right to refuse a statement. I'm not going to vote for FDP because I like them much, for me, they're the only electable option left.
I've addressed the issue with the left parties with Rob already. For me, left parties are a shell of themselves trying to create strawman arguments by bringing up minorities vs majourities or creating them themselves instead of focusing on their core competences. I don't mind inclusion or gender politics, minimum wages, affordable housing etc. FOR EVERYONE come first for me though. For this, they need to unify as many people as possible for their cause. They do the opposite.
So I'm left with FDP as damage mitigatator in a Jamaica coalition.
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Post by futbol Thu Aug 05, 2021 4:09 pm

Difference between Baerbock and Scholz or Laschet is that Baerbock and her ilk act like moral overlords and hound you if you dare to say mankind instead of "peoplekind" or whatever new language they are inventing.

With Laschet/Scholz and CDU politicians you already know you are getting the classic, conservative, "wirtschaftsnahe" Selbstbereicherer.

Die Messlatte hängt halt höher für Moralapostel.

Also Laschet and Scholz at least possess proper degrees. Baerbock jumped from an unfinished undergraduate program into a private University and bought herself a Master's degree within 12 months. She is literally a fraud.

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Post by VivaStPauli Thu Aug 05, 2021 7:09 pm

@futbol wrote:Difference between Baerbock and Scholz or Laschet is that Baerbock and her ilk act like moral overlords and hound you if you dare to say mankind instead of "peoplekind" or whatever new language they are inventing.

With Laschet/Scholz and CDU politicians you already know you are getting the classic, conservative, "wirtschaftsnahe" Selbstbereicherer.

While I, morally, get your argument if you'Re gauging outrage levels, once you're actually voting, I'd still take the corrupt asshole from the party that hates corrupt assholes over the corrupt asshole from the party that thinks corruption is the goal of politics.

Die Messlatte hängt halt höher für Moralapostel.
Admittedly true. Would've preferred Habeck anyway. From the economic proposals I still like the Green's playbook, the Klimageld is a fucking great idea, and I want it.

Also Laschet and Scholz at least possess proper degrees. Baerbock jumped from an unfinished undergraduate program into a private University and bought herself a Master's degree within 12 months. She is literally a fraud.


I'd honestly not be too sure about Laschet, he did copypaste a lot for his book, might've done the same for his degree, but yeah the Baerbock Master is fishy AF.
In the scope of this election though, I think Scholz' involvement with Wirecard and Cum-Ex is a dealbreaker, and Laschet is involved in Wirecard as well (his whole party is), his shady mask deals through his son are also prime corruption.
Plus, the Union parties are still the only ones resisting all lobby transparency laws, they're not electable.

I get the appeal of the FDP for you right-wingers. I dislike their politics too much. I might actually write a few paragraphs in defense of the left in general these days, I think they're better than their reputation.
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Post by futbol Thu Aug 05, 2021 7:59 pm

@VivaStPauli wrote:
@futbol wrote:Difference between Baerbock and Scholz or Laschet is that Baerbock and her ilk act like moral overlords and hound you if you dare to say mankind instead of "peoplekind" or whatever new language they are inventing.

With Laschet/Scholz and CDU politicians you already know you are getting the classic, conservative, "wirtschaftsnahe" Selbstbereicherer.

While I, morally, get your argument if you'Re gauging outrage levels, once you're actually voting, I'd still take the corrupt asshole from the party that hates corrupt assholes over the corrupt asshole from the party that thinks corruption is the goal of politics.

Die Messlatte hängt halt höher für Moralapostel.
Admittedly true. Would've preferred Habeck anyway. From the economic proposals I still like the Green's playbook, the Klimageld is a fucking great idea, and I want it.

Also Laschet and Scholz at least possess proper degrees. Baerbock jumped from an unfinished undergraduate program into a private University and bought herself a Master's degree within 12 months. She is literally a fraud.


I'd honestly not be too sure about Laschet, he did copypaste a lot for his book, might've done the same for his degree, but yeah the Baerbock Master is fishy AF.
In the scope of this election though, I think Scholz' involvement with Wirecard and Cum-Ex is a dealbreaker, and Laschet is involved in Wirecard as well (his whole party is), his shady mask deals through his son are also prime corruption.
Plus, the Union parties are still the only ones resisting all lobby transparency laws, they're not electable.

I get the appeal of the FDP for you right-wingers. I dislike their politics too much. I might actually write a few paragraphs in defense of the left in general these days, I think they're better than their reputation.

You are mistaken there. I would classify myself as a social democrat. Though, I could never vote for people like Kevin Kühnert who went from school to University (did not finish obviously, not even something as simple as communication "science") straight to the parliament.

Figures like that and Baerbock grind my gears. Haven't worked a single day in their lives, did not even manage to finish their useless social "sciences" but somehow got into powerful political positions due to quota, connections and luck. These people would be flipping burgers in the free economy.

It's just sad what political figures we have right now in Germany. On the bright side: I won't be here much longer so I'm not as invested and kinda don't care.

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Post by Found Sun Aug 08, 2021 4:33 am

Can someone explain what type of person identifies with the Green Party instead of a normal party with social justice policies? Is their favourite colour green? What?
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Post by Hapless_Hans Sun Aug 08, 2021 10:33 am

@Found wrote:Can someone explain what type of person identifies with the Green Party instead of a normal party with social justice policies? Is their favourite colour green? What?


Yes I think that's exactly right. Green is a very attractive and successful colour these days. Having Green as your core brand feature is an automatic winner

Also, what normal party with social justice policies do you mean. Surely not the SPD Laughing
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Post by Myesyats Sun Aug 08, 2021 11:01 am

You guys have choices?? You should see polish politics and stop complaining, I only have 1 choice because others are hot garbage, populists and undercover commies Very Happy
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Post by VivaStPauli Sun Aug 08, 2021 12:08 pm

@Found wrote:Can someone explain what type of person identifies with the Green Party instead of a normal party with social justice policies? Is their favourite colour green? What?


Environmentalists.
Basically, the Social Democrats lost millions of voters to the Greens from the late 90s on because they kept prioritizing employment numbers over environmental protection (which is not an insane choice, but the Greens promised they could do both, and so far haven't been shown to fail at that).
Also, ironically, the Greens might be quick to ban something for environmental reasons, they at least historically were less authoritarian than the other parties (FDP, the liberals excluded) so they also leeched a fair share of FDP voters over the years, who found a chance to embrace social justice without having to give up civil liberties.
Honestly, judging just by their agenda, the Greens are an excellent platform and could have voters in every demographic.
Their personnel sucks ass big time though, so that's kind of a deal breaker for many.
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Post by Found Tue Aug 10, 2021 9:59 am

@VivaStPauli wrote:
@Found wrote:Can someone explain what type of person identifies with the Green Party instead of a normal party with social justice policies? Is their favourite colour green? What?


Environmentalists.
Basically, the Social Democrats lost millions of  voters to the Greens from the late 90s on because they kept prioritizing employment numbers over environmental protection (which is not an insane choice, but the Greens promised they could do both, and so far haven't been shown to fail at that).
Also, ironically, the Greens might be quick to ban something for environmental reasons, they at least historically were less authoritarian than the other parties (FDP, the liberals excluded) so they also leeched a fair share of FDP voters over the years, who found a chance to embrace social justice without having to give up civil liberties.
Honestly, judging just by their agenda, the Greens are an excellent platform and could have voters in every demographic.
Their personnel sucks ass big time though, so that's kind of a deal breaker for many.

I figured already they get the name from the green environment. But I mean what exactly is their interest in the environment? I have a utilitarian interest in the environment, it’s of instrumental value not intrinsic value. I.e. what should be done with the environment as an instrument to promote a welfare agenda (and yes that agenda could/should include the welfare of non-humans). When people focusing disproportionately on an environmental concern it’s often because they have a nazi-esque concern for the intrinsic value of soil, dirt, grass, mountains, forests, rivers, etc.
If this is the Green Party worldview, and they would privilege geographical features at the expense of welfare, then they are insane or dumb in my diagnosis.
Technically speaking I would have no problem with the unbuilt environment being completely replaced by civilisation if it did not have a negative effect on the net welfare of the world. In fact the truth is human beings have laboured hard to escape from the wild and it is insulting to the plight of wild animals to romanticise the environment from a safe distance.

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German Politics Empty Re: German Politics

Post by VivaStPauli Sat Aug 14, 2021 10:14 pm

Oh they're not about destroying civilization to live among the trees, they're about sustainability.

About not polluting the rivers, so you can fish in them, not polluting the soil, so you can farm it. They're not opposed to agriculture or anything.

Basically their concerns are usually framed utilitarian - preserve the planet, so future generations can also live in wealth. They promote transitioning to affordable renewable energy (Germany isn't bad for wind farms, plus Solar is getting cheaper than oil and gas these days).

I personally would argue that pockets of wild have intrinsic value, but even if you disagree you might agree that they offer respite and psychological boons. Also, obviously, biodiversity leads to a more stable environment, so protecting endangered species makes the entire planet more resilient.

So even if you were solely interested in the environment in that regard, they'd still offer you the argument that your kids and grandkids will have a bad time if you fuck up the planet now. If even that doesn't really interest you, the Greens are currently peddling a nice little redistribution scheme:
"Klimageld" (climate money) - basically they collect money through a CO2 tax, and the smaller your carbon footprint, the more of it you get back.
Economists have run the maths, and anybody that's not a frequent flyer or a large company is getting back money, and the large polluters foot the bill.
It's socially and environmentally just. I quite like the idea.

Obviously the Greens have their problems, as they're a political party and contain a bunch of idiots. Just trying to answer your question.
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German Politics Empty Re: German Politics

Post by Myesyats Thu Aug 26, 2021 1:34 pm

looks good for SPD

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German Politics Empty Re: German Politics

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