Re: The Coronavirus Thread - Part 3

[sportsczy]

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/29/health/gilead-remdesivir-coronavirus.html

Looks like we may have something here... given the strictness of the FDA and the liability exposure in the US:

The Food and Drug Administration acknowledged that officials were discussing approval of remdesivir for treatment of Covid-19 patients, presumably under emergency use provisions.

Here's a description of the drug: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Remdesivir

[Babun]

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/home/index.html

UK death toll up by 4000..

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/29/health/gilead-remdesivir-coronavirus.html

Looks like we may have something here... given the strictness of the FDA and the liability exposure in the US:

The Food and Drug Administration acknowledged that officials were discussing approval of remdesivir for treatment of Covid-19 patients, presumably under emergency use provisions.

Here's a description of the drug:  https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Remdesivir

remdesvir failed in German trials.
https://www.welt.de/wissenschaft/article207473471/Coronavirus-Studie-daempft-Hoffnungen-auf-Remdesivir.html

[CBarca]

What you're suggesting by social media targeting extreme conservative thought being a reason a conservative court would rule against social media companies doesn't really fit to me. It depends on how much members of the court decide to act as partisan interests.

If they were truly conservative judges, the answer is simple: these are private companies that host their own forum. The government won't get involved in how free speech is regulated here.

The article you link actually seems to suggest this is probably what will happen

Could a court expand on the Marsh v. Alabama ruling and modify the state-action doctrine to hold a social media entity like Facebook to First Amendment constraints? Most legal experts view this as unlikely.

“At least as things currently stand, it is unlikely any court would see platforms as being fully state actors, at least for the purposes of the First Amendment,” says St. John’s University law professor Kate Klonick, author of the 2018 Harvard Law Review article “The New Governors: The People, Rules, and Processes Governing Online Speech.”

Klonick says that Marsh v. Alabama is the high-water mark. “While the court recently found in dicta that social media spaces were akin to the ‘public square,’ and access to them could not be blocked by the state, that’s still a far cry from saying Facebook or Twitter or Google are stepping fully into the role of the state and thus should be held to a First Amendment standard,” she says.

O’Neill says that though the days of “company towns” are long gone, it might be possible to invoke the old “governmental function” doctrine to establish the social media giants as state actors as social media becomes more and more pervasive. “But courts have long been reluctant to expand the exceptions to the state action doctrine, so I’m doubtful about this,” he says.

Anyway, that was an interesting article, thanks for sharing it. I enjoyed the read.

Personally, I would be shocked to see the Supreme Court offer such a world-changing decision like that, when it's still early days in the social media-censorship game, relatively speaking.

I think the courts should stay out of it and give us another 5-10 years at least to start to wade through this world. Don't get me wrong, Sports, I find it extremely unnerving to put faith in any sort of company (especially big tech companies) to make these decisions. However, I'm not sure complete deregulation of the internet and letting misinformation run rampant is the answer. I think we'll figure out the right way to do things over time.

[sportsczy]

yeah... i don't trust anyone these days. Dems, reps, tech cos. etc. None of them have people's best interests remotely in minds.

Not sure what the solution is. People becoming more educated and self-aware is the answer imo but that won't happen for at least a generation or two.

[BarrileteCosmico]

Free speech... you get that right?  You don't censor. These are two guys giving their opinion.  If you don't like their opinion, you create a video that disproves theirs.

I don't care of they say that the sky is purple based on their interpretation of the data.

It's the 1st Amendment ffs.  I don't understand how this is even up for debate.

People need to stop rationalizing the compromise of our constitution. There is no compromise. We're a free country by right, not privilege. You cannot take those rights away because they are sometimes annoying and/or inconvenient.

Free speech is freedom to say what you want, not a right to a platform.

[sportsczy]

That's the whole argument... either break the big tech monopolies (really just google) or extend rights reserved to public platforms to these monopolies so that we don't need antitrust.

I think I prefer the antitrust in the long term. But for now, preserving rights is fine.

Very similar to AT&T controlling public airwaves and getting broken up. Google is getting close.

[McLewis]

Elon Musk on investor call, re stay at home orders: "This is fascist, this is not Democratic, this is not freedom. Give people back their goddamn freedom."

— Joe White (@JBWEyesonroad) April 29, 2020

Was seriously considering a Tesla in the near future. Not anymore.

[Freeza]

Not the first time he's shown just how big of a dumbass he is.

[CBarca]

I've found that I understand Elon better when I view literally everything he says and does as some form of self promotion.

[elitedam]

He's always said really dumb shit. Remember that thing with the cave diver in Thailand a couple of years back?

[Myesyats]

Sweden plans to ask European Union to investigate origin of COVID-19, likely further straining relations with China: Sweden’s health minister, Lena Hallengren, says an investigation is important to know ‘the origin and spread of the Coronavirus.’

https://www.scmp.com/news/china/politics/article/3082227/sweden-plans-ask-european-union-investigate-origin-covid-19

[Arquitecto]

Guys Musk is a literal proxy and a front and it shouldn't be easy to figure out for who especially considering all the bail-outs receive.

He deserves his plaudits but throws out many impractical ideas that simply will not happen. His cycle will end along with the fans of his who find it a trend to broadcast they love Elon Musk. Guy is in big trouble already anyway.


Really odd comment to make, at that.

[CBarca]

The result of completed survey revealed that 19.9% of New York City residents have antibodies for SARS-COV-2, thus ~ 1,671,600 were infected. Previous interim results suggested a higher proportion, 21% and 24%. This helps estimate the infection fatality rate.

The survey was carried out in the last two weeks, and suggest the IFR in NYC is approx. 0.87% to 1.1%.

[Jay29]

Let's hope those estimated IFRs are at end the worst end of the scale and that it'll be a lot lower in other places.

[Warrior]

Antibodies mean those who are immune after infection, or they also count the "natural" immunity ?

For example a guy like Rugani who caught the virus, showed no symptoms, then recovered, he would be counted in that ?

[Nishankly]

Antibodies mean those who are immune after infection, or they also count the "natural" immunity ?

For example a guy like Rugani who caught the virus, showed no symptoms, then recovered, he would be counted in that ?

A bit of a tangent from what you asked but I think some countries also this method that I mention below:

France is not counting asymptomatic cases, Nursing homes and earlier home quarantine cases. They've only counted hospitlizations which stands at about 165,000. We know nursing home is 35,000 and France has said add about 30% on hospitalizations for the asymptomatic + home based + unnoticed cases. So the figure is close to about 250,000 in total for France but reporting is only 165,000.

They might have changed this since I stopped reading about Corona a while ago but this quite true upto the second last week of April.

[CBarca]

Let's hope those estimated IFRs are at end the worst end of the scale and that it'll be a lot lower in other places.

It will likely be different in different places, and I'm willing to guess that it will be different in a direction that's less deadly.

Overall, as I said before, I think we're finding some consensus around 0.5-0.8%, and it can fluctuate from that slightly depending on where you are, demographics etc

[Babun]

Congrats, Robespierre, you can finally go out. Of course, Italy is still far from normality but it's a start. You guys have managed the Wuhan virus situation much better than France, Spain or UK while being hit the hardest at the start. I hope it stays that way and the number of new infections goes down the drain.

[Myesyats]

Pompeo Ties Coronavirus to China Lab, Despite Spy Agencies’ Uncertainty

The secretary of state cited “enormous evidence” that the virus came from a research laboratory in Wuhan, backing an assertion by President Trump.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/03/us/politics/coronavirus-pompeo-wuhan-china-lab.html


Do they know something we don't? those reps are outta control

[Babun]

Pompeo Ties Coronavirus to China Lab, Despite Spy Agencies’ Uncertainty

The secretary of state cited “enormous evidence” that the virus came from a research laboratory in Wuhan, backing an assertion by President Trump.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/03/us/politics/coronavirus-pompeo-wuhan-china-lab.html


Do they know something we don't? those reps are outta control

There was a deviation with 95% certainity that China started hoarding masks and medical supplies at the start of January in an unnatural manner (hence deviaiton, usually, they didn't buy that much). To do that, one needs to know the properties of the virus (withheld information). The world was fed with the info man to man transmission hadn't been proven, yet, at that time.
Pompeo didn't offer any other evidences, just talk but the point above stands: they knew more and didn't share the info.
He talked more about leads like the missing link in the transmission chain hasn't been found yet even though it shouldn't be a problem. He means the bat that carries the virus doesn't originate from Wuhan or surroundings, there is still no 99.99% scientificaly proven animal from which the infection jumped over to humans. That's a huge sign it was lab made. All of that are leads, Pompeo didn't present any hard proof.

[Nishankly]

India finally reaching European numbers now with 3-4k per month (as expected finally even after lockdown which is more depressing how we failed to contain), let see how they can handle it. Russia doing 10k a month lmao

Interesting next week for the "developing world" which is a shit term because from what I see half of these "developed countries" are as shit us lmfao.

[sportsczy]

Thing is, most countries don't accurately test, count or report for various reasons that I won't get into (lack of tests, lab facilities, politics, etc.). In the US, politician or not, you go to jail for a long long time if these numbers are inaccurate. So the reporting is very accurate.

[Babun]

There is an official overmortality report from Italy: 54% more than the last 5y average in march for whole Italy. As all of the averages, the counting for whole Italy brings the average down too much. In Bergamo, there are places with 500% more overmortality, in south Italy not much more than usual.

So let's sum up a little: UK, Italy and France report massive overmortality even though the countries are under lockdown. Imagine what would have happened without the lockdown. I'm all for carefully easing into normality after the lockdown but physical distancing(not social distancing) and face masks should be mandatory for quite some time until the pandemic is truly over.
The states in Germany are rushing the easing of lockdown rules forgetting that it all started with 200 cases per day some months ago.

@nishanky
I'm very worried for India but I also think you guys will manage it.

@USA
new estimate for the death toll until august 2020 is 130000, highest infection rate is supposed to be 300000 per day if the business goes on as usual.

[Nishankly]

There is an official overmortality report from Italy: 54% more than the last 5y average in march for whole Italy. As all of the averages, the counting for whole Italy brings the average down too much. In Bergamo, there are places with 500% more overmortality, in south Italy not much more than usual.

So let's sum up a little: UK, Italy and France report massive overmortality even though the countries are under lockdown. .

That's purely because it hit the Nursing homes in those countries i think.

@India: We did everything right (still a bit late even though we shut the country down with 100 cases and with wrong laws, that fucked us since religion etc) but stupidity still won, so I don't think we can stop now that provinces are opening up after 1.5 months of lockdown.

[Babun]

There is an official overmortality report from Italy: 54% more than the last 5y average in march for whole Italy. As all of the averages, the counting for whole Italy brings the average down too much. In Bergamo, there are places with 500% more overmortality, in south Italy not much more than usual.

So let's sum up a little: UK, Italy and France report massive overmortality even though the countries are under lockdown. .

That's purely because it hit the Nursing homes in those countries i think.

@India: We did everything right (still a bit late even though we shut the country down with 100 cases and with wrong laws, that fucked us since religion etc) but stupidity still won, so I don't think we can stop now that provinces are opening up after 1.5 months of lockdown.

Still, India has got lots of experience with bacterial/viral outbreaks and the infrastructure/specialists for it. The death toll will be high like everywhere else but you'll manage it. I expect South America, Middle East and South East Asia to be hit much harder over the long run from all point of view (health, economy due to tourism, export etc.). Africa is mostly young population, I think they'll manage it. Even if the vaccine arrives, someone has to pay for it. You can produce your own or put terms to the production, for lots of medicaments are partially or fully made in India.

@nursery homes in Italy
The overmortality isn't caused by the Wuhan virus only. It might be due to the collaps of the health care system and/or people dying with the Wuhan virus at home without being tested. More than half of those deaths aren't officially because of to the Wuhan virus.

[McLewis]

Resistance to my state's governor's stay-at-home order has become violent:

Michigan State Police are looking into reports that an argument over a mask led to the fatal shooting of a Family Dollar guard in Flint.​ https://t.co/PyOHln6f2q

— FOX 32 News (@fox32news) May 5, 2020

TLDR - Woman trying to enter a dollar store was told by a security guard that she can't enter without a mask. They got into an argument and the woman left. She later returned with her husband and son. The son, 23, shot the security guard in the back of the head and killed him. All 3 got arrested for premeditated murder.

For clarity - As far as we know, this was NOT politically motivated. Also, Flint has a very high crime rate so it is not unusual for stores in the rougher parts of the city to have security guards.

The guard had a wife and 8 kids.

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