Re: The Coronavirus Thread - Part 1

[Babun]

One can normalize with the overall population once the epidemy is over. Right now, it isn't, it takes from to 4 to 6 weeks for an outcome which is cured or dead. I made a mistake anyways, it should be deaths divided by the total number of outcomes.
3069/(3069+45531)*100% = 6.31%.
Of course, in reality, there is a huge amount of unreported, uncounted mild cases so the real mortality rate is probably between 1-2%, with good medical service in the regions between 0.5 - 1%.
However, one should note if the health care system is overwhelmed by the number of severe cases like China, Iran and soon Italy, the mortaly rate will be much higher. Still more dangerous than flu and will infect and kill more people in total due to the lack of any kind of herd immunity in the chain of transmission.

[rincon]

Still incorrect. You can't say 3 out of 50 people die. That's unnecessary skewing of the data. The rate is not calculated by normalizing with the number of definitive outcomes. It's disingenuous to say so since we know that the large majority of cases aren't at risk. The final number will be much closer to the rate calculated with the overall infected population, as is normally done. And it's even bound to be lower since more people are infected unknowingly and not dying from it.

There is no need to inflate numbers in an epidemic.

[Babun]

Still incorrect. You can't say 3 out of 50 people die. That's unnecessary skewing of the data. The rate is not calculated by normalizing with the number of definitive outcomes. It's disingenuous to say so since we know that the large majority of cases aren't at risk. The final number will be much closer to the rate calculated with the overall infected population, as is normally done. And it's even bound to be lower since more people are infected unknowingly and not dying from it.

There is no need to inflate numbers in an epidemic.

Of course, in reality, there is a huge amount of unreported, uncounted mild cases so the real mortality rate is probably between 1-2%, with good medical service in the regions between 0.5 - 1%.
However, one should note if the health care system is overwhelmed by the number of severe cases like China, Iran and soon Italy, the mortaly rate will be much higher. Still more dangerous than flu and will infect and kill more people in total due to the lack of any kind of herd immunity in the chain of transmission.

I think I answered that one already. Any number we get right now is a rough estimation. The real mortality rate can be calculated after an epidemic is over or enough statistical data ist present ( I don't trust Chinese numbers, outside of China, there isn't enough data).

The big problem with this sickness is that the severe cases need 4-6 weeks of care while the new ones arrive. It has got the potential to upset the health care system really fast if not fought against to slow down the infection rate. The mortality rate would be high then because other patients will also lack care and the medics themselves would get sick. As you see the mortality rate is intervened with the infection rate. To keep the total mortality down one has to keep the infection rate in check, anything else is pure speculation from all of the sides.

[futbol]

Seems all a bit hysterical. I've now read from several leading virologists that this is basically "harmless" (exactly the word they used). Mortality is between 0.3 and 0.7 % (probably lower due to unknown cases) and mostly elderly or already chronically ill people are dying because of it.

In Germany I've read from a case where the daughter from a physician came back from an Italy trip. She was infected and infected her father as well. Both are in isolation and basically have no symptoms other than a bit of throat itching.

Wonder how many people actually have this but think it's a common cold.

Pretty much but the correct time to buy stocks after markets have tanked recently.

[Babun]

Seems all a bit hysterical. I've now read from several leading virologists that this is basically "harmless" (exactly the word they used). Mortality is between 0.3 and 0.7 % (probably lower due to unknown cases) and mostly elderly or already chronically ill people are dying because of it.

In Germany I've read from a case where the daughter from a physician came back from an Italy trip. She was infected and infected her father as well. Both are in isolation and basically have no symptoms other than a bit of throat itching.

Wonder how many people actually have this but think it's a common cold.

Pretty much but the correct time to buy stocks after markets have tanked recently.

Assume the mortality rate of 0.5% and the total infection of the population in Germany for example at 60% within 2-3 years:
83000000 * 0.6 * 0.005 = 249000 deaths alone in Germany
Europe is full of sick, elderly and people with preconditions. The average age of people in Spain, Germany, Italy and France is over 44 years.

[BarrileteCosmico]

Yeah the disease in its own is not that severe. That said every country should make every effort to stop it as the 65+ population is at risk and that's a large part of the population.

Also at least I the US the common cold kills 25-50k people a year. I'm reading that this has twice the mortality rate which could lead to 50-100k deaths, certainly not insignificant.

[Babun]

Yeah the disease in its own is not that severe. That said every country should make every effort to stop it as the 65+ population is at risk and that's a large part of the population.

Also at least I the US the common cold kills 25-50k people a year. I'm reading that this has twice the mortality rate which could lead to 50-100k deaths, certainly not insignificant.

The spread of the common cold is halted somewhat by already immune people who don't get sick or transmit the disease, it is called the herd immunity. There is no such a thing with Covid-19. One has to develop the immunity first before stopping the transmission but sick people with Covid-19 infect other people during the incubation and sickness period sometimes with no obvious clinical symptoms. The infection rate is exponential if unchecked.

[Nishankly]

Iran reported 835 cases yesterday, they are finally owning up the numbers.

[Babun]

While many people globally have built up immunity to seasonal flu strains, COVID-19 is a new virus to which no one has immunity. That means more people are susceptible to infection, and some will suffer severe disease.

Globally, about 3.4% of reported COVID-19 cases have died. By comparison, seasonal flu generally kills far fewer than 1% of those infected.

Third, we have vaccines and therapeutics for seasonal flu, but at the moment there is no vaccine and no specific treatment for COVID-19. However, clinical trials of therapeutics are now being done, and more than 20 vaccines are in development.

Source:
https://www.who.int/dg/speeches/detail/who-director-general-s-opening-remarks-at-the-media-briefing-on-covid-19---3-march-2020

[The Demon of Carthage]

3.4% is not a negligible percentage. Also, it could be even worse because there's no guarantee that countries, especially China, are being honest with their number of confirmed cases or deaths.

[Warrior]

People are so soft these days ffs

[Perucho21]

6th death in the US, all in washington. I'm in NY, and they reported a second case.

I go to a supermarket and the staff had to wipe down the shopping cart before I entered. Never witnessed that before.

[CBarca]

Heard it's up to 9. Mind, these deaths are generally all in a senior living facility, so the numbers are a bit inflated.

However, it's clear that the numbers in the US are only really that low right now because we aren't testing. As it sounds that test kits are about to become widely available, my guess is that we're going to start looking like Italy soon (and I think the CDC has recently said as much...)

Stock will continue to fall...

[Robespierre]

Meanwhile Spain already had it on 13 February

"20.17 PRIMER FALLECIDO POR CORONAVIRUS (COVID-19) EN ESPAÑA. La Comunitat Valenciana ha informado de que el pasado 13 de febrero murió un hombre en esta región que tenía coronavirus. La causa del fallecimiento fue una neumonía grave de origen desconocido. La necropsia ha confirmado que tenía el virus. Se trata del primer fallecido que tenía el coronavirus en España, que registra 151 casos de la enfermedad, según el último balance del Ministerio de Sanidad. "


So before of that Atalanta- Valencia, before of that first official case in Italy...

I wonder if they 're hidding as much as possibile so as to  avoid what  Italy is  going through ... clogged hospitals, block of entire regions, stop flights, no tourists.
Just waiting that it 's spreaded everywhere and at that point quarantine and red areas will no longer be needed.

[Myesyats]

1st case confirmed in Poland, pretty sure there's many more that went unnoticed due to not very thorough examination by our medical department. I'm staying clear of big cities, thankfully i live in the countryside so i'm relatively secure for the time being

[Robespierre]

Seems all a bit hysterical. I've now read from several leading virologists that this is basically "harmless" (exactly the word they used). Mortality is between 0.3 and 0.7 % (probably lower due to unknown cases) and mostly elderly or already chronically ill people are dying because of it.

In Germany I've read from a case where the daughter from a physician came back from an Italy trip. She was infected and infected her father as well. Both are in isolation and basically have no symptoms other than a bit of throat itching.

Wonder how many people actually have this but think it's a common cold.

Pretty much but the correct time to buy stocks after markets have tanked recently.

Sadly situation is pretty  serious and it can't be "banalized " as if it is  a normal influence.

Ppl focuses on " mortality rate " but it doesn't say so much.

I'll go fast about the point.

The coronavirus takes  many more people ( than influence)  to intensive care (ok, especially old people and weak ppl ).
Intensive care is a serious matter.

If the intensive care places got  saturated, the risk increase also  for other pathologies that require  intensive care too..

And of course  healing times about " intensive care"  are long and in the meantime the sick  people accumulate.

For example  in Italy   There are 230 people in intensive care due to coronavirus. In Lombardy there are 650 places between public and private health.
( ah , Lombardia is the most organized place on it, imagine if South Italy..)

The whole healthcare system risks to collapse and I feel it's not so different for other places.

[Babun]

Increasing evidence shows that coronavriruses are not always confined to the respiratory tract and that they may also invade the central nervous system inducing neurological diseases. The infection of SARS‐CoV has been reported in the brains from both patients and experimental animals, where the brainstem was heavily infected. Furthermore, some coronaviruses have been demonstrated able to spread via a synapse‐connected route to the medullary cardiorespiratory center from the mechano‐ and chemoreceptors in the lung and lower respiratory airways.

Source:
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It means there is a high possibility the virus attacks the CNS ( central nervous system) and that the breathing difficulties aren't induced by the damage to the lungs only. Cardic failure due to this reason would explain mysterious outcomes where patients with still intact lungs died anyways.

[Nishankly]

28 cases in India now. Jumps by 22 in 2 days.

15 Italian tourists, who enjoyed 3 days before becoming symptomatic while 1 case in Delhi but his relatives numbering 6 in a different city called Agra.

Italian tourists toured some big cities in Rajasthan and how did the Delhi case make it to Agra which is about 250 kms away.

Its going to blow in India.

[Robespierre]

Italy to close all schools and universities across the country for two weeks to control coronavirus outbreak, Italian news agency reportshttps://t.co/WxExbLXW9j pic.twitter.com/SiLzvZfjt3

— BBC Breaking News (@BBCBreaking) March 4, 2020

[BarrileteCosmico]

First case in Argentina, from man that had recently been to Italy

Imagine being named and shamed as the first in 40m to bring the virus to a country

Meanwhile in the US the cdc refuses to give mes test kits to anyone that had not recently been to China. but they all say they have the "best medical professionals in the world"

[CBarca]

US response has been comically terrible

We are absolutely depressing numbers by not testing as much as we should.

[Robespierre]

Pretty serious situation. Pretty serious.

[RealGunner]

2 cases reported in my county.

As fabreezo romano says....Here we go!

[The Demon of Carthage]

Robes, I just read that the number of confirmed deaths of patients who tested positive for coronavirus in Italy has risen to 107 from 79.

That's a lot. Were they all old?

[Babun]

There are two mutated strains of Covid-19 right now. L-Type is the severe version, S-Type is supposed to be milder. The probability is high that Italy has gotten the L-Type because they closed the border with China in January.
Source:
https://fortune.com/2020/03/04/coronavirus-mutating-second-strain-covid-19-wuhan-china/

[Nishankly]

Robes, I just read that the number of confirmed deaths of patients who tested positive for coronavirus in Italy has risen to 107 from 79.

That's a lot. Were they all old?

its true, 107 deaths (In 3000) for Italy compared to 35 for 5000 cases for South Korea.

I have to travel to Paris next week for a conference . France at 290 now with 70 new cases today.

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