2020 US presidential election

Well yeah for sure. 2024 would be the year we see any major shift to the left. That largely comes down to how a Biden administration would do in the years leading up.

I would've preferred that shift be this year, but such a swing from right-wing to left-wing wouldn't be feasible without stopping again in the center, I suppose.

BarrileteCosmico wrote:Overall I think Harris is a predictable, boring, competent choice, which kinda describes Biden as well. And I think after 4 years of crazy the American people want politics to go back to being predictable, boring and competent, so that's a virtue in Biden's book.

Seriously. Trump's whining is so draining. The memes were great in the first year but by this point it's just exhausting. The more boring the country, the better.

McLewis wrote:Well yeah for sure. 2024 would be the year we see any major shift to the left. That largely comes down to how a Biden administration would do in the years leading up.

I would've preferred that shift be this year, but such a swing from right-wing to left-wing wouldn't be feasible without stopping again in the center, I suppose.

I don't think so. The left are a minority, a very loud one albeit. There'll be a shift to the left but not a majour one.

Those republicans talk like they're from a different planet lmao I have no idea what they're on about. Man is flexing that his grandparents didnt have running water

I'm not sure when we'll see a major progressive candidate win.

Establishment politics is money politics. And people with a lot of money don't tend to just "give up" power.

It won't happen until major campaign finance reform, is my estimate. We'll see what lifetime that happens in

Pedram wrote:<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr" xml:lang="en"><a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/NEW?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#NEW</a> <a href="https://twitter.com/CNN?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@CNN</a> National Poll<br /><br />Biden/Harris 50% (+4)<br />Trump/Pence 46% <br /><br />That’s a 10 point shift towards Trump In a month</p>— Political Polls (@PpollingNumbers) <a href="https://twitter.com/PpollingNumbers/status/1295155505564966912?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">August 17, 2020</a></blockquote>  

Hmm this is kinda worrying.

Makes sense, the whole first day of the democratic meet was about Trump bashing, nothing else. Even Obama's wife contributed to the "cause". Pretty embarassing for a big party if you ask me. I get the feeling the democrats never sat down and thought why they lost against Trump last time. Hillary was all about "I ain't Trump". With an almost 80y old and a PC vice president candidate.. not gonna end up well. Sanders would've been the better choice.

Well, ABC has Biden at +12

If you average out all the polls from last week Biden is up about +9 so not bad.

Ultimately it's about whether Biden will be able to motivate the people to actually go out and vote.

Reminder that Hillary was +8 at this point last election

BarrileteCosmico wrote:Reminder that Hillary was +8 at this point last election

At this exact day last year, Hillary was up 5.8% on Trump according to RealClearPolitics. This is also not long after Trump took a very brief polling lead over Clinton (it widened after the Dem National Convention of 2016...Convention bounce).

As for Biden, he is over 50% and has maintained that position for a while in polling against Trump, which Hillary never reached (outside of like, July 2015). Part of this is that the # of undecideds is a LOT lower in 2020 than it was in 2016. While we should expect the race to tighten, the idea that it is going to move around as much as it did in the dog days of 2016 are unlikely. Keep in mind, too, that Biden is a lot more hardened than Hillary. He already survived sexual assault allegations with ease. That would have buried Hillary 6 feet underground given how much people disliked her.

Babun wrote:

Pedram wrote:

#NEW @CNN National Poll

Biden/Harris 50% (+4)
Trump/Pence 46%

That’s a 10 point shift towards Trump In a month

— Political Polls (@PpollingNumbers) August 17, 2020

 

Hmm this is kinda worrying.

Makes sense, the whole first day of the democratic meet was about Trump bashing, nothing else. Even Obama's wife contributed to the "cause". Pretty embarassing for a big party if you ask me. I get the feeling the democrats never sat down and thought why they lost against Trump last time. Hillary was all about "I ain't Trump". With an almost 80y old and a PC vice president candidate.. not gonna end up well. Sanders would've been the better choice.

I understand what you're saying (something along the lines of "stop bashing Trump/Republicans and be positive and talk about what you will do") but...

1) Your expectations are wildly out of line with how politics are run, for better or for worse

2) Did you really think the Democratic establishment was going to ignore Trump and Republicans after all he's done for 4 years? The US response to the pandemic has been embarrassing, his ability to heal the nation during a time of racial strife -- nonexistent. And so, so many norms being broken, illegal activity, impeached, handouts to large corporations, and right at this very moment, while people are struggling for money and food, McConnell and Republicans, who are as complicit as Trump in anything the administration has done, are in the way of getting people the help they need.

Yeah. They're gonna talk about that.

3) You don't seem to have a grasp on what is motivating people in the nation, and especially liberals, right now. It's getting Trump out of office. Hillary did spout the classic anti-Trump rhetoric, but the difference is that she was massively disliked herself, and the country didn't see what 4 years under Trump looked like. It had very little to do with how much or how little Hillary hated on Trump.

4) Sanders got face fucked by Biden in the primaries. Would I prefer to vote for Bernie? Yes. Would most progressives? Probably. However, the overall US population does not agree. As evidenced by the fact that Bernie couldn't even beat Biden in the first place...

Finally, the DNC rhetoric wouldn't be showing up in polls as it is too soon. And a single CNN poll does not reflect the overall polling average, and it's misleading to do so. Thank you to Myesyats for not pulling a single poll out of context.

Data from a week ago

The @FiveThirtyEight nat'l polling average with 84 days until E-Day:

2020: Biden+8.3
2016: Clinton+6.6
2012: Obama+0.5
2008: Obama+2.6
2004: Kerry+2.5
2000: Bush+10.0
1996: Clinton+11.3
1992: Clinton+20.1
1988: Dukakis+5.6
1984: Reagan+16.0
1980: Reagan+22.1
1976: Carter+26.6

— Nathaniel Rakich (@baseballot) August 11, 2020

Using the 538 polling average rather than the RCP one the difference between Biden and Hillary then is less than 2 points. I'll happily grant that Biden is doing better than Hillary ever did, just pointing out it's too early to call anything

We're not in disagreement, and RCP isn't even really disagreeing with you. RCP has Clinton at +6.9% on August 11, the day of that tweet. The only difference between us is that Clinton shrank by a percent a week later (today, Aug 18). The only thing I would certainly say is that Hillary wasn't up 8% at this point.

You have to reach back to the end of April to see Hillary up by that margin, and she never reached it for the entire rest of 2016 (although she got close during a very brief convention bump in early August, but that dissipated quickly).

Biden is in a much better position both in polling percentages, with certain voter groups, and in polling stability/# of undecideds.

It is too early to call anything, but I have (by and large), hated comparisons to 2016 and generally try to call out the differences when I see the comparisons being made.

The more you talk about Trump, the better it is for Trump...  good or bad.  People still don't understand how he gets votes:  It's me against the establishment that have eroded your standard of living over the past 20 years.  

It's all about deflecting.


I am worried.  Because plenty of people I know will not participate in polls since they're going to vote Trump... even Fox ones.  They're worried that their participation will somehow get leaked and, given the cancel culture, they will lose their jobs.  They will not say a word until the election.

Biden and co really really really need to put some kind of agenda out there that won't scare the shit out of moderates.  Stop appealing to the extreme left... you have their votes already!

sportsczy wrote:The more you talk about Trump, the better it is for Trump...  good or bad.  People still don't understand how he gets votes:  It's me against the establishment that have eroded your standard of living over the past 20 years.  

It's all about deflecting.


I am worried.  Because plenty of people I know will not participate in polls since they're going to vote Trump... even Fox ones.  They're worried that their participation will somehow get leaked and, given the cancel culture, they will lose their jobs.  They will not say a word until the election.

Biden and co really really really need to put some kind of agenda out there that won't scare the shit out of moderates.  Stop appealing to the extreme left... you have their votes already!

It's harder to make this argument when you have been in power for 4 years, 2 of them with complete control over congress to enact whatever reforms you want

I get that BC... but it's perception over facts. He's appealing to people's dislikes of certain groups and their fear. You can't logically dispel this kind of nonsense because it's.... nonsense.

Best method is to silence it. People already dislike him. You're not going to make them dislike him more or like him less. It's all about appealing to people who have no political affiliation and, frankly, want to decide on what's best for them.

I haven't watched much of it, but my thoughts on the Democratic National Convention so far:

- I understand bringing in Republicans like John Kasich to attract moderates and Independents, but I don't like it.

- That was perhaps the most partisan I've ever heard Michelle Obama be. And yet she still struck all the right tones. I'm sure we'll see that same level from her husband.

- AOC using her paltry 1 minute (mad disrespect) to endorse Bernie was a flex. Never truly believed she'd endorse Biden.

Another thing, apparently Trump attacked Michelle Obama's response, in which she mentioned that over 150,000 Americans have died from Covid-19. Trump attacked her for having a pre-recorded video and said 170,000 have actually died. The crazy thing is he's not wrong. It's one of those times where saying nothing REALLY would've been better for him. But he can't help himself.

The stupidity of this man is breathtaking.

This appears to be some of the guests who will speak at the Republican National Convention next week:

Nicholas Sandmann - A Catholic school student who made headlines for a video showing him, with a MAGA hat on, smirking in the face of a Native American Elder at the Washington monument amid protests against Trump. Basicallly, CNN and the Washington Post accused him of racially abusing the older man and he sued them. They both settled so this was considered a major victory against the "MSM" for conservatives and Trump supporters.

The McCloskeys - A white couple from a suburb of St. Louis who made headlines for brandishing guns on BLM activists who dared walk down a road in front of their house to protest in front of the Mayor's house. They not only brandished the guns, they pointed them at protesters. For this, they were arrested. Trump called their treatment unfair.

Abby Johnson - Former director at Planned Parenthood who is now a leading anti-abortion activist.

Andrew Pollack - Father of one of the students killed in the Parkland school shooting.

There was a rumor circling that Brock Turner, a college student and swimmer who was convicted of sexually assaulting an unconscious woman and was given a 6 month jail sentence, was also scheduled to speak, but it's been proven false and was circulated as a joke.

So it appears Trump's RNC theme will be a response to legitimate cultural grievances with tone-deaf whataboutisms.

Trump voters tends to be anti establishment/elites; so what does the DNC do? They gather a bunch of Republicans and Democrats elites.

I thought COVID 19 was going to destroy Trump re-elections chances mainly due to the effect on the Stock market. Well the market has whipped its loses, so he can boost about the market again.

11% unemployment? Not a problem, since both party don’t really care and are at the whims of the stock market.

Many small businesses whipped out by the pandemic? Also not a problem, again since stock market is what both party care about.

CBarca wrote:

Babun wrote:

Pedram wrote:<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr" xml:lang="en"><a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/NEW?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#NEW</a> <a href="https://twitter.com/CNN?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@CNN</a> National Poll<br /><br />Biden/Harris 50% (+4)<br />Trump/Pence 46% <br /><br />That’s a 10 point shift towards Trump In a month</p>— Political Polls (@PpollingNumbers) <a href="https://twitter.com/PpollingNumbers/status/1295155505564966912?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">August 17, 2020</a></blockquote>  

Hmm this is kinda worrying.

Makes sense, the whole first day of the democratic meet was about Trump bashing, nothing else. Even Obama's wife contributed to the "cause". Pretty embarassing for a big party if you ask me. I get the feeling the democrats never sat down and thought why they lost against Trump last time. Hillary was all about "I ain't Trump". With an almost 80y old and a PC vice president candidate.. not gonna end up well. Sanders would've been the better choice.

I understand what you're saying (something along the lines of "stop bashing Trump/Republicans and be positive and talk about what you will do") but...

1) Your expectations are wildly out of line with how politics are run, for better or for worse

Nope, I'm not asking for an intelligent plan. In politics everywhere, not just in the US, a party needs a banner to unite its supporters for a cause. "No Trump" isn't enough and won't be enough again from my point of view. To give you an idea, Trump's banners were "America first" and "Mexico wall", both sound absurd but they united the people who cared about those topics without going into specifics. He was aiming at the anti establishment voters and won.

CBarca wrote:
2) Did you really think the Democratic establishment was going to ignore Trump and Republicans after all he's done for 4 years? The US response to the pandemic has been embarrassing, his ability to heal the nation during a time of racial strife -- nonexistent. And so, so many norms being broken, illegal activity, impeached, handouts to large corporations, and right at this very moment, while people are struggling for money and food, McConnell and Republicans, who are as complicit as Trump in anything the administration has done, are in the way of getting people the help they need.

Yeah. They're gonna talk about that.

Not ignoring isn't the same as basing the entire campaign about him. They indirectly promote Trump

CBarca wrote:
3) You don't seem to have a grasp on what is motivating people in the nation, and especially liberals, right now. It's getting Trump out of office. Hillary did spout the classic anti-Trump rhetoric, but the difference is that she was massively disliked herself, and the country didn't see what 4 years under Trump looked like. It had very little to do with how much or how little Hillary hated on Trump.

Biden has been in the congress for a century (figurativly speaking) and also a vice of Obama. Whatever went bad during those times he's also one of the resposibles for the situation. The moderate people whose votes the democrats need aren't as intellectually challenged as extreme left or right, for them Biden is no better than Hillary, even worse, he's too old to actively lead the US without the help of his vice president. Harris as the choice.. we'll see. Both of us are speculating anyways.

CBarca wrote:
4) Sanders got face fucked by Biden in the primaries. Would I prefer to vote for Bernie? Yes. Would most progressives? Probably. However, the overall US population does not agree. As evidenced by the fact that Bernie couldn't even beat Biden in the first place...

There was a huge anti Sanders campaign because he wasn't the "right one" while all allegations against Biden (sniffling little kids' hair and the invisible woman) were swiftly put under the carpet. #meToo died with Biden

CBarca wrote:
Finally, the DNC rhetoric wouldn't be showing up in polls as it is too soon. And a single CNN poll does not reflect the overall polling average, and it's misleading to do so. Thank you to Myesyats for not pulling a single poll out of context.

CNN poll is important for two reason:
1). They're 100% pro democrats.
2). The poll was anonymous.

All Trump cares about is the stock markets. It's recovering = huge danger of Trump being elected again. I'm fed up with Trump, really

Also, I noticed dems don't use the internet nearly as much as trumpists do. They do only for indirect censorship reasons by using PC, a huge weakness if you ask me. There's great potential in social media platforms.

Shy Trump voter has been proven to not be a thing in 2016 and I'd be surprised if it's a thing in 2020. Polling has gotten better, and every Trump supporter I've met in the last 4 years is generally relatively loud and proud about it. Way more than in 2016

Yeah that's an anecdote but like I said, statistics don't back up shy Trump voter as a theory.

Biden is in the strongest position a challenger has ever been in historically. That's what the numbers show. It can change, but that's the facts.

As for Babun, no I'm sorry. We're both not speculating. I'm basing my arguments in polling, both general election polling and issues polling. There is no debating that getting Trump out of office is huge for Dems and Dem leaning independents. The biggest thing. It feels like for you, you're just projecting your own feelings on the Dems.

I don't particularly like the Dems. That doesn't mean what they're doing at the DNC is destroying their appeal. The biggest blunder is the AOC thing.

Sorry just realized what you said about the CNN poll

You're literally talking out of your ass. "100% pro Dems". A poll wouldn't be published if the sample was all Dems. Only SRS gets published. Once again. It sounds like projecting. You saw CNN and thought "must be biased for Dems", and that was the whole thought process.

I understand your concern but it needs to come from a place that's grounded in what we know empirically.

CNN used to be smack in the middle between the two parties, it's the GOP that kept inching more to the right until all mainstream media seemed to have a liberal bias.
By now, from the view of the GOP and FOX, reality itself has a left-wing bias. They've just gotten far right over the past years. CNN is not a partisan network. It's a sensationalist, idiotic network. But not partisan.