2020 US presidential election

Blue wrote:I can’t take libertarian seriously, just like communism. Both ideology is so limited due to their absolutism. The issue with most of society is accumulation of power, nether ideology has answer to it. One toward private sector the other against government.

then you are not radical enough

there's nothing absolute about libertarianism lol, it's nothing but an illusion built upon existing structures of classism.

Latest Battleground state polls from Five Thirty Eight:

Wisconsin

Iowa

Pennsylvania

Minnesota

Nevada

Arizona

Georgia

Florida

North Carolina

Texas

TL;DR - Biden leading in all polls in the battleground states by varying margins, except for Texas, which has Trump in a slight lead. Some are well within the margin of error. For the states I didn't link above - New Hampshire, Virginia, Michigan, Colorado, and Maine - Biden has a lead well outside of the margin of error.

The fact that you can call Texas a battleground state on it's own is an achievement

Most people I know have already voted, I wonder how that will impact election day

Over 6 million in Texas alone have already voted. Seems to be split pretty evenly between Democrats and Republicans as well.

This election is already historic and we're still a week out from the actual day.

As far as I'm concerned, the election is over. What else is there to say? Trump has been unable to get back into it, people are voting like mad, and Biden has large, stable leads in the most important battleground states and even expanded into Texas, Georgia, Iowa, and North Carolina. Not to mention that he seems straight up favored in Arizona.

When you play around with the 538 interactive...it really makes it clear. I can give Trump Texas, NC, Ohio, Florida, Pennsylvania, Georgia, Iowa and you can STILL end up with a Biden win (if he managed AZ, WI, and MI). That's insane.

The circumstances that allowed Trump back in in 2916 are not there anymore. At this point the 2016 election was tightening. No such thing here. Undecideds are low. Hell polls show that undecideds are breaking more for BIDEN than Trump lol.

I won't say there isn't ANY Trump chance, but I just can't see it. Of course I looked like an ass after 2016, but I'm not seeing it this time. Fool me once, shame on you, fool me twice...

The only reason "this election is OVER" isn't the national narrative is she'll shock from 2016.

You're forgetting that republicans are world class at voter suppression, and with a 6-3 supermajority, they're gonna get some big victories soon.

Calling it here as I did two years before 2014, that Trump is to win again.

This has no reflection in my choice but a mere prediction and one that will not change.

Arquitecto wrote:Calling it here as I did two years before 2014, that Trump is to win again.

This has no reflection in my choice but a mere prediction and one that will not change.

Even a broken moral compass is right twice in history

CBarca wrote:As far as I'm concerned, the election is over. What else is there to say? Trump has been unable to get back into it, people are voting like mad, and Biden has large, stable leads in the most important battleground states and even expanded into Texas, Georgia, Iowa, and North Carolina. Not to mention that he seems straight up favored in Arizona.

When you play around with the 538 interactive...it really makes it clear. I can give Trump Texas, NC, Ohio, Florida, Pennsylvania, Georgia, Iowa and you can STILL end up with a Biden win (if he managed AZ, WI, and MI). That's insane.

The circumstances that allowed Trump back in in 2916 are not there anymore. At this point the 2016 election was tightening. No such thing here. Undecideds are low. Hell polls show that undecideds are breaking more for BIDEN than Trump lol.

I won't say there isn't ANY Trump chance, but I just can't see it. Of course I looked like an ass after 2016, but I'm not seeing it this time. Fool me once, shame on you, fool me twice...

Trump stands no chance. Nearly a quarter of a million people died on his watch after he promised it would be gone by easter.

ITS OVER

Hapless_Hans wrote:

Arquitecto wrote:Calling it here as I did two years before 2014, that Trump is to win again.

This has no reflection in my choice but a mere prediction and one that will not change.

Even a broken moral compass is right twice in history

If the idiom is directed to me then once again I have no direct preference to Trump as the post is of the prediction not whom I desire to win.


Bigger note I wonder what influences Texas to be how it is in which their preferences show no particular pattern but thats born out of ignorance from me as Im going to find that out, if not if anyone here can briefly explain it.

Per 538, Dems have a:

Presidential 88 in 100 chance of winning
Senate 75 in 100 chance of winning
House 96 in 100 chance of winning

Personally my focus has gone from worrying about Trump to the Senate. But if there is a blue sweep (as expected) Dems better live up to the promise of their platform rather than squander the opportunity like in 2008.

Btw, Dave Wasserman (the US House editor @CookPolitical) is a good follow on Twitter. He was sounding the alarm in 2016 while looking at district level polling.

Shared a tidbit yesterday: NY-22, which tied at 49% each for Obama and Romney went for Trump by 15% in 2016. A lot of white working class. Current polling has Biden at +1 in NY-22.

2020 isn't 2016.

Arquitecto wrote:

Hapless_Hans wrote:

Arquitecto wrote:Calling it here as I did two years before 2014, that Trump is to win again.

This has no reflection in my choice but a mere prediction and one that will not change.

Even a broken moral compass is right twice in history

If the idiom is directed to me then once again I have no direct preference to Trump as the post is of the prediction not whom I desire to win.


Bigger note I wonder what influences Texas to be how it is in which their preferences show no particular pattern but thats born out of ignorance from me as Im going to find that out, if not if anyone here can briefly explain it.

Would you like to explain, or are you just taking the hipster opinion like the media landscape at large is at the moment?

Here in my state, Macomb County was one of the major contributors to Trump winning here in 2016. They were, in turn, a contributor to flipping the Governor's seat to blue back in 2018. I don't see any specific polling for that county, but that indicator alone is bad news for Trump. This country is largely white and blue collar with a high amount of high school graduates without college degrees, very similar to Biden's home region that includes Scranton. His working class background is gelling well with these voters.

Trump won this state by 11K votes, and they largely came from this country. Given he's down 8 points here statewide, the chances of that happening again are virtually 0.

His best hope is winning Ohio, Pennsylvania and the Sun Belt. The only states he has anything approaching a definitive lead in out of those states is Ohio and that's by roughly 4 points.

It's looking very grim for him.

Some new polling from 538 on the Senate races down ballot. For me, these matter as much as the Presidential race as it will determine just how much Biden will be able to get done before the 2022 Midterms.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/senate/

The Democrats need 4 GOP seats to flip the Senate. As it stands, the following look like solid pickups:

Loeffler - Georgia
McSally - Arizona
Gardner - Colorado
Collins - Maine

These look likely, but are less solid. If Dems get these 3, that gives them a commanding majority.

Tillis - North Carolina
Perdue - Georgia
Ernst - Iowa

Winning as many of these seats is imperative as the Dems do look likely to lose a seat, as Doug Jones is down by as much as 15 points in Alabama. That was always going to be a tough seat to keep. He's running against a real shithead in Tuberville, but record turnout in Alabama doesn't appear to be enough down there. Another race in the Deep South I'm watching is Mike Espy and incumbent GOP Cindy Hyde-Smith in Mississippi. Espy has pulled to within 8 points of her, making that race a lot more competitive than it once was (he was down by as much as 30 a few months back). Would be great to keep the Alabama seat, flip both Georgia seats and take this one in Mississippi as well to add to the above. I doubt that happens though.

Lindsey Graham's seat in South Carolina is in danger as well from Jaime Harrison, but that one's a real toss up. Harrison has a very narrow lead, but Graham still has the overall advantage despite his fingerprints being all over the ACB confirmation. I think Graham will narrowly hold on to it, but I really hope I'm wrong as I like Harrison alot. Man has run a flawless campaign.

Unfortunately, John Cornyn and Mitch McConnell look set to keep their seats as their Dem challengers are double-digits behind. I really like Hegar (Cornyn's challenger) and I don't think this is the last we'll see of her.

538 doesn't appear to have Graham/Harrison as a toss up. Although their model isn't purely based on polls. They give 20% for Harrison.

I think Graham will keep his seat, and it will not be super close. Still, Harrison is a powerhouse in fundraising and this is a stepping stone for a potentially bright future for him, even if he loses

Beating Donald Trump is such a low bar. Lol. Freaking unbelievable man That is really the state of this country, after 4 years it is still surreal. I remember that no one( obvious hyperbole) took him seriously when he first announced his intention. Shockingly won the GOP nomination, and i recall the democrats were salivating at their chances to win the White House, this was their dream scenario. Lol

4 years later no reflection by the dems or the media. The focus has been on the people. How they are raciest, sexiest, Progressive fault or mislead by Putin(Russia disinformation).

Clearly not enough energy has been focused on how poor and incompetent our politicians are that freaking Trump won the presidency.

CBarca wrote:

Arquitecto wrote:

Hapless_Hans wrote:


Even a broken moral compass is right twice in history

If the idiom is directed to me then once again I have no direct preference to Trump as the post is of the prediction not whom I desire to win.


Bigger note I wonder what influences Texas to be how it is in which their preferences show no particular pattern but thats born out of ignorance from me as Im going to find that out, if not if anyone here can briefly explain it.

Would you like to explain, or are you just taking the hipster opinion like the media landscape at large is at the moment?

Ive no clue what the media scope is saying as I learned they are the last sources to go by and mostly are hit in hope so many can look back and confirm that they were right, thus more clout.

My prediction is akin to what we predict who wins the CL in the section above, not to be taken seriously especially given it is just based on what I see happening based on my political viewership experience and or patterns, not data and stats, like the last election.

This opinion of mine barely has any weight as it is nor was it intended to.

Texas is reliably republican, though lately they've been trending towards becoming a battleground state. Their cities are experiencing a lot of growth, and the democrats have made great strides in the suburbs.

while the establishment continues to establish, our TRUE LEADER is busy laying the groundwork for REAL CHANGE

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qxOeWuAHOiw

visionary shit
so inspirational
when i hear him speak i am inspired
i would do anything to work for him

For anyone who doesn't want to waste time with his lunatic ramblings, here is a 1 minute summary of the interview:

hateful vulture

just like the media tabloids bitesizing a leader's entire vision-explaining into a 1-minute video with an agenda. You should be ashamed of yourself

i'll never understand cowards who hear the word "God" and then freakout as if the biggest curse was just said in the conversation, dumbbells

God isn't real and shouldnt be involved in politics even as a joking matter

rincon wrote:For anyone who doesn't want to waste time with his lunatic ramblings

Kanye, Rogan, or ElG?

Joe Rogan just had Alex Jones on his show. If you don't know who that is, Alex Jones is a known far-right conspiracy theorist. He pushed a very dangerous theory that the Sandy Hook Massacre (26 children and teachers killed by a gunman) did not happen and that the parents of those children were crisis actors, which led to them getting death threats. Alex Jones is scum and Rogan giving him a platform on his very popular show is extremely dangerous. Jones is also a proponent of QANON.

I had no interest in his show before this, but now I vehemently won't listen to it now. Having such a vile person on has killed any curiosity I had in his show.