Re: The Coronavirus Thread - Part 1

[Art Morte]

That Italy death toll is weird to me, too. South Korea and Italy have roughly the same number of confirmed cases at the moment, but there are some 366 deaths in Italy and 53 in Korea. I guess the actual number of cases in Italy could be much higher?


I'm not personally too worried even if I catch it; an otherwise healthy 34-year-old has to be very unlucky to die from it. But I will be worried for some (older) relatives of mine if they catch the virus.

[rincon]

That Italy death toll is weird to me, too. South Korea and Italy have roughly the same number of confirmed cases at the moment, but there are some 366 deaths in Italy and 53 in Korea. I guess the actual number of cases in Italy could be much higher?

On saturday the number of confirmed cases in Italy jumped by 1200 to a total of 5900. Then jumped by another 1500 to the current number of 7400. It is a matter of testing. There are so many infected that the testing capabilities, instead of the infection itself, limits the number of confirmed cases.

133 were pronounced day yesterday, that's 50% of the previous number total of deaths. Makes it seem like the worst is yet to come with such an acceleration.

The current mortality rate is at 6.2%. Really high and twice as much as most other countries. Seems to me that it is a mixof too many cases undocumented yet, and a very old population. The people dying are very old, and there are so many older people in Italy.

The worst will, imo, come now that the hospitals are at capacity. There has been a lot of rearrangement and re-purposing of hospital space for this, but it cannot be enough. Once no more people can be taken to intensive care then even milder cases will result in complications and a higher death rate can follow.

[Babun]

1151 confirmed cases in Germany, 0 dead.

Meanwhile 366 dead in Italy.

Okay.

Wieler, Chief of RKI (Robert Koch Institue), Christian Drosten (Sars-CoV and Sars-CoV-2 test kit developer and chief virolog of Charite in Berlin) and Spahn health minister) held a conference today.
Wieler said he has got the number of bills paid for Covid-19 tests and 25 out of 1000 has been positive yet. It means Germany tested around 50000 times in all regions (decentralized). Out of the 1000+ positive cases more than 70% are under 50y old. The statistics from Italy are scewed because they test first when the symptoms of fever and respiratory problems surface which is dominated by elder population.
Drosten also said that the total number of the infected in Italy has to be multitudes higher than in the other European countries. He said something else which would have been considered doom mongering a month ago:
The virus cannot be stopped anymore, one can only try to slow down its spread so the health service system doesn't collapse. According to the new research, summer temperatures won't considerably slow down the spread. The RO might go down from 3 as of now to 2.5 ( one infected spreads to 2.5 infected instead of 3). He advised to lock out any person 65y upwards and isolate them as much as possible because they are the primary risk group. The immunization process of the community may take 3-4 months ( around 60-70% became sick and immunized), until then one has to protect the grandparents and elderly. The risk group includes also any young person with underlying conditions like diabetis, immune suppression etc. They have to be laid off for the time or work from home otherwise their life is at risk.
You can google who Christian Drosten is. He basicaly backstabbed the health ministir by telling the ugly truth.

[sportsczy]

100s of people have coronavirus in the US.... 100s!!!

Joking aside seems like children and women (regardless of age) are far less prone to become dangerously infected if infected at all.

Plenty of old men that the world could do without.  So it may not be a bad thing when it's all said and done.  For example, Qom is apparently one of the most impacted places in Iran.  The more old men this thing kills there, the better.  A lot of old men in politics in the US that nobody would shed a tear over either. Not that I wish death and/or illness on anyone... but if it's going to happen, it looks like the targeting is right lol.

[Robespierre]

1151 confirmed cases in Germany, 0 dead.

Meanwhile 366 dead in Italy.

Okay.

Wieler, Chief of RKI (Robert Koch Institue), Christian Drosten (Sars-CoV and Sars-CoV-2 test kit developer and chief virolog of Charite in Berlin) and Spahn  health minister) held a conference today.
Wieler said he has got the number of bills paid for Covid-19 tests and 25 out of 1000 has been positive yet. It means Germany tested around 50000 times in all regions (decentralized). Out of the 1000+ positive cases more than 70% are under 50y old. The statistics from Italy are scewed because they test first when the symptoms of fever and respiratory problems surface which is dominated by elder population.
Drosten also said that the total number of the infected in Italy has to be multitudes higher than in the other European countries. He said something else which would have been considered doom mongering a month ago:
The virus cannot be stopped anymore, one can only try to slow down its spread so the health service system doesn't collapse. According to the new research, summer temperatures won't considerably slow down the spread. The RO might go down from 3 as of now to 2.5 ( one infected spreads to 2.5 infected instead of 3). He advised to lock out any person 65y upwards and isolate them as much as possible because they are the primary risk group. The immunization process of the community may take 3-4 months ( around 60-70% became sick and immunized), until then one has to protect the grandparents and elderly. The risk group includes also any young person with underlying conditions like diabetis, immune suppression etc. They have to be laid off for the time or work from home otherwise their life is at risk.
You can google who Christian Drosten is. He basicaly backstabbed the health ministir by telling the ugly truth.

This.
And it's what it is going to happen in Italy  
Have you  a source where can I read what have they said on press Wieler,Dorsten,Spahn ?

[Nishankly]

That Italy death toll is weird to me, too. South Korea and Italy have roughly the same number of confirmed cases at the moment, but there are some 366 deaths in Italy and 53 in Korea. I guess the actual number of cases in Italy could be much higher?


I'm not personally too worried even if I catch it; an otherwise healthy 34-year-old has to be very unlucky to die from it. But I will be worried for some (older) relatives of mine if they catch the virus.

I think its because it hit the countryside first where older people live then later it came to Milan.

[Robespierre]

That Italy death toll is weird to me, too. South Korea and Italy have roughly the same number of confirmed cases at the moment, but there are some 366 deaths in Italy and 53 in Korea. I guess the actual number of cases in Italy could be much higher?


I'm not personally too worried even if I catch it; an otherwise healthy 34-year-old has to be very unlucky to die from it. But I will be worried for some (older) relatives of mine if they catch the virus.

Korea has designed a contact tracing to notify people that were at risk on smartphone , and it's working

[sportsczy]

Meanwhile, in the US, we don't have kits to test anywhere other than SOME emergency rooms... and not even for everyone... and it takes days to get results

[Vibe]

Just heard on TV that 27 people died in Iran, not from Coronavirus, but from alchohol poisoning because someone spread a rumor that alchohol kills it.

This true?

[El Gunner]

this virus has just shown again how fragile, fearful and selfish humans are been trying to avoid this thread like the plague

but im here to ask has it affected airline activity yet? I'm trying to go to South Africa before more cases are reported and countries go into shutdown

[futbol_bill]

I have just read that the virus doesn’t survive in temperatures well into 30s. Is this correct? I haven’t heard of any tropical country having any issues?

[Nishankly]

I have just read that the virus doesn’t survive in temperatures well into 30s. Is this correct? I haven’t heard of any tropical country having any issues?

Don't think so, Singapore and Malaysia have about 300 cases combined. Its started in Indonesia as well.

India has about 45 but it hasn't spread a lot there since they don't have any travel or business connections with China, its come through the European routes.

[rincon]

I have just read that the virus doesn’t survive in temperatures well into 30s. Is this correct? I haven’t heard of any tropical country having any issues?

It is not correct. We don't know, it's just people speculating. There are (very few) cases in south america at least.

[Hapless_Hans]

1151 confirmed cases in Germany, 0 dead.

Meanwhile 366 dead in Italy.

Okay.

Wieler, Chief of RKI (Robert Koch Institue), Christian Drosten (Sars-CoV and Sars-CoV-2 test kit developer and chief virolog of Charite in Berlin) and Spahn  health minister) held a conference today.
Wieler said he has got the number of bills paid for Covid-19 tests and 25 out of 1000 has been positive yet. It means Germany tested around 50000 times in all regions (decentralized). Out of the 1000+ positive cases more than 70% are under 50y old. The statistics from Italy are scewed because they test first when the symptoms of fever and respiratory problems surface which is dominated by elder population.
Drosten also said that the total number of the infected in Italy has to be multitudes higher than in the other European countries. He said something else which would have been considered doom mongering a month ago:
The virus cannot be stopped anymore, one can only try to slow down its spread so the health service system doesn't collapse. According to the new research, summer temperatures won't considerably slow down the spread. The RO might go down from 3 as of now to 2.5 ( one infected spreads to 2.5 infected instead of 3). He advised to lock out any person 65y upwards and isolate them as much as possible because they are the primary risk group. The immunization process of the community may take 3-4 months ( around 60-70% became sick and immunized), until then one has to protect the grandparents and elderly. The risk group includes also any young person with underlying conditions like diabetis, immune suppression etc. They have to be laid off for the time or work from home otherwise their life is at risk.
You can google who Christian Drosten is. He basicaly backstabbed the health ministir by telling the ugly truth.

This.
And it's what it is going to happen in Italy  
Have you  a source where can I read what have they said on press Wieler,Dorsten,Spahn ?

But that's nothing new.
The goal is to slow it down so sick people can be properly treated and the health system isn't strained.
The press conference really wasn't nearly as dramatic as @Babun makes it sound

But they were asked about why there are no (now there is one  I think) deaths in Germany as opposed to many deaths in Italy, and the response of both Drosten and Wieler was that the difference is likely in the focus, scope, and timing of testing in relation to the infected.
Apparently, Italy started testing when people started exhibited strong symptons (old people, vulnerable people) and thus the focus and context of testing was in this demographic.
Germany tested much more broadly, and also did extensive testing around clusters of young people infected, many of whom had little symptons.
Drosten said the uniquely extensive and widespread infrastructure of testing laboratories in Germany is responsible for the 'advantage' in early testing - university clinics and laboratories with the necessary expertise all over the country were instructed and authorized as early as January to do testing, as well as the test itself was made billable to the public health insurance system.
'Advantage' meaning, Germany now has a high number of diagnosed cases in relation to deaths, meaning the testing reaches and documents more parts of the infected population than just the ones with strong symptoms.
But they both said deaths in Germany among the vulnerable demographic are expected just as in Italy.

This however also means that in Italy, much more people must have been infected for much longer than in Germany, as obviously the epidemic is much more acute and advanced in northern Italy

Here's the video of the press conference

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rvbTAN1QQ28

couldn't find an English transcript yet, but you understand some German, don't you Robes

[Hapless_Hans]

I have just read that the virus doesn’t survive in temperatures well into 30s. Is this correct? I haven’t heard of any tropical country having any issues?

It is not correct. We don't know, it's just people speculating. There are (very few) cases in south america at least.

The most prominent virologist today in Germany said that with Covid the newest studies suggest that contrary to the flu or cold, seasonal changes (ie warmer weather) will likely have much less influence on the spread and potency of the virus
Not sure about tropical countries of course

[Art Morte]

I have just read that the virus doesn’t survive in temperatures well into 30s. Is this correct? I haven’t heard of any tropical country having any issues?

I hereby invite RG, Robes and Thimmy to live in my sauna 24/7. Hans is already there.

[Pedram]

US is definitely not testing enough people, that death rate doesn't seems right.

[Hapless_Hans]

US is definitely not testing enough people, that death rate doesn't seems right.

laboratories with the necessary expertise all over the country were instructed and authorized as early as January to do testing, as well as the test itself was made billable to the public health insurance system.

think the bolded part might play a role here

[RealGunner]

It really is a "what a time to be alive"

[El Gunner]

It really is a "what a time to be alive"

bro
it seems like we might have our own Great Depression after all, @Tyler Durden

[CBarca]

The US isn't testing enough but even if we were it's skewed slightly because the vast amount of testing has occurred in Washington after the outbreak in a nursing home.

Essentially the "Italy" effect. We only started testing when we saw the worst symptoms occur, and that happened with the most vulnerable population. So the death rate is skewed high.

It will come down as we test more I would imagine. Hans isn't wrong though, there are also probably a lot of people with symptoms who aren't going to the doctor because $$$

[Babun]

The US isn't testing enough but even if we were it's skewed slightly because the vast amount of testing has occurred in Washington after the outbreak in a nursing home.

Essentially the "Italy" effect. We only started testing when we saw the worst symptoms occur, and that happened with the most vulnerable population. So the death rate is skewed high.

It will come down as we test more I would imagine. Hans isn't wrong though, there are also probably a lot of people with symptoms who aren't going to the doctor because $$$

One cannot collapse a common health system which doesn't exist. The death toll will be very high in the USA. Whatever there is will be overrun within 2-3 weeks time.

But that's nothing new.
The goal is to slow it down so sick people can be properly treated and the health system isn't strained.
The press conference really wasn't nearly as dramatic as @Babun makes it sound

I didn't say the press conference itself was dramatic, the content was and Drosten basicaly gave out a warning to isolate the risk group. It means also that China will face the problem again in the near future because the Virus isn't going to disappear anytime soon.

[Robespierre]

Serie A Prime Minister is talking

Very hard statement
Basically the whole Italy is closed now ( not just Lombardia and some provinciae) , it means travel bans for cities etc and of course Serie A league has been supended.

[Robespierre]

BREAKING NEWS:

official:

for the first time since World War II,

on 9 March 2020,

Italy ordered to limit freedom of movements of citizens and put entire country on lockdown due to #coronavirus outbreak pic.twitter.com/nHrduj94xx

— Tancredi Palmeri (@tancredipalmeri) March 9, 2020

[Hapless_Hans]

he forgot to add

BOOM

[Pedram]

I like what Italy is doing, while it sounds extreme to quarantine an entire country it's probably the only way to slow down the spread of Coronavirus at this point.

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