The US Economy Thread

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Post by RealGunner Wed May 15, 2013 4:09 pm

I'll put in something that automatically saves ur text. Wait for a week

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Post by Kaladin Wed May 15, 2013 4:13 pm

Agreed with swan, many misconceptions in that video
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Post by Grooverider Wed May 15, 2013 9:48 pm

@Swanhends wrote:I just wrote a f*cking novel about that video and I accidentally hit the delete key when not in the textbox....took me back to the previous screen :facepalm:

Long story short I got 1/2 way through the video and while the guy has some legitimate concerns, he's horribly wrong/misguided on a lot of this stuff (IMO), in addition to seemingly pulling numbers out of mid-air (does he source this stuff at the end?)

Seriously can't believe I just lost all that shit I just spent 35 minutes procrastinating studying for finals to write :facepalm: :facepalm: :facepalm:

Well at the end of the day its pretty obvious that the future does look grim, irrelevant if you agree with him or not, The 'next generation' basically anyone under the age of 30...is not going to have it 'all' with opportunities at every turn.
Thats the reality. The economic system that we currently live under can not be sustained, as there is not such thing as 'infinite growth' or resources.
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Post by Grooverider Wed May 15, 2013 9:51 pm

@zizzle wrote:^ that's the video i posted in the other thread but not a single comment was made.

Sorry mate, i didnt see the thread..but i think its a good indication of whats to come and the dire state of the economy in the U.S
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Post by BarrileteCosmico Wed May 15, 2013 9:59 pm

Can someone tell me where he covers the bulk of his argument? really don't want to spend an hour watching a crack pot theory.
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Post by Swanhends Wed May 15, 2013 10:14 pm

@Grooverider wrote:Well at the end of the day its pretty obvious that the future does look grim, irrelevant if you agree with him or not, The 'next generation' basically anyone under the age of 30...is not going to have it 'all' with opportunities at every turn.
Thats the reality. The economic system that we currently live under can not be sustained, as there is not such thing as 'infinite growth' or resources.

Red: Don't agree with that at all, I'm very optimistic about the future

Blue: Not sure there has ever been a time where there are opportunities at every turn...

Green: That depends on the timeline you're using ("In the long run were all dead" / "Use a long enough timeline and the survival rate is 0") etc so unless you are more specific with what you mean theres not much I can say to that


Back to the video: The guy reminds me of a psychic in his style of presentation...he sort of just says things and waits for the audience to make connections and reach conclusions on their own, removing the burden on him to prove (or even demonstrate) causation/correlation etc
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Post by CBarca Wed May 15, 2013 10:28 pm

@RealGunner wrote:I'll put in something that automatically saves ur text. Wait for a week couple years
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Post by Yuri Yukuv Wed May 15, 2013 11:04 pm

@Grooverider wrote:


Well at the end of the day its pretty obvious that the future does look grim, irrelevant if you agree with him or not, The 'next generation' basically anyone under the age of 30...is not going to have it 'all' with opportunities at every turn.
Thats the reality. The economic system that we currently live under can not be sustained, as there is not such thing as 'infinite growth' or resources.

Its very interesting that you and zizzle are swayed by Molynaux's view even though you are both not american, the man has very right wing views and I myself consider him to be extreme.

Can you both (Grooverider and zizzle) tell us in your own words what you think brought about the crisis, what is the current problem and how can we solve it?
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Post by RealGunner Wed May 15, 2013 11:08 pm

Pretty sure Zizzle lives in US
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Post by Yuri Yukuv Wed May 15, 2013 11:21 pm

@RealGunner wrote:Pretty sure Zizzle lives in US

Hes not american though, it is very strange for foreigners not from UK or US roots to take up these views. Its in fact rare for second generation immigrants to do as well, which I am one. Its just not a very popular opinion to have, especially as it is a bit counter intuitive to what we have been taught.
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Post by Yuri Yukuv Wed May 15, 2013 11:27 pm

Heres Krugmans recent post on Debt



About That Debt Crisis? Never Mind
Link fixed

OK, another toe dipped in reality. The new CBO numbers are out, and they scream “debt crisis? What debt crisis?” Here’s the actual and projected ratio of federal debt to GDP:

The US Economy Thread - Page 2 051513krugman1-blog480

Yes, debt rose substantially in the face of economic crisis — which is what is supposed to happen. But runaway deficits? Not a hint.

Yes, there are longer-term issues of health costs and demographics. As always, however, these have no relevance to what we should be doing now — and it’s far from clear why they should even be a priority for discussion. As I’ve written before, the VSP consensus seems to be that to avoid the possibility of future benefit cuts, we must commit ourselves now now now to … future cuts in benefits.

Why, it’s almost as if the real goal was to make sure that benefits get cut even if the fiscal outlook improves.

Meanwhile, our policy discourse has been dominated for years by what turns out to be a false alarm. To the millions of Americans who are out of work and may never get another job thanks to premature fiscal austerity, the VSPs would like to say, “oopsies!”

Or maybe not even that. I’m happy to report that the Times does place this fiscal news on page 1. But correspondents tell me that at VSP Central, aka The Washington Post — where deficit panic has pervaded the news pages as well as the opinion section — the stunning new deficit report is buried as a small item deep inside the paper.

And Bowles and Simpson, who are now 26 months into their prediction of fiscal crisis within two years, will continue to be treated as revered gurus.
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Post by Swanhends Thu May 16, 2013 12:55 am

Bloomberg News ‏@BloombergNews 2m

BREAKING: Japan's 1Q GDP Rose Annual 3.5% vs Forecast 2.7% Rise

GEETTTT IINNNN!!!
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Post by BarrileteCosmico Thu May 16, 2013 1:36 am

Liquidity trap Proud
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Post by Swanhends Thu May 16, 2013 2:00 am



omg rofl

22 seconds in: "governments and dragons and hippogriff's and unicorns and ghosts do not exist. There are really only people with guns and people running and hiding from them"

my sides Laughing

One part that I did find quite interesting though was 4:11-5:41

more nuttery 6:00-9:00

and another part that I found interesting again 9:04-9:48
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Post by kiranr Thu May 16, 2013 2:47 am


I just don't see the regulatory reforms to reverse the conditions that caused the loss of industrial/manufacturing productivity to other nations around the world. Without this, the US economy will always just limp ahead.
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Post by Kaladin Thu May 16, 2013 2:51 am

Kiranr pretty much summed it up
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Post by BarrileteCosmico Thu May 16, 2013 2:51 am

Why does the US need to be an industrial country? The US is a rich country therefore it requires higher wages, hence it has a comparative disadvantage in producing. It should focus on services, which requires a higher skill-set and is more productive.
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Post by CBarca Thu May 16, 2013 2:57 am

El Shaarawy wrote:I agree with Zizzle

El Shaarawy wrote:Pretty much what BC said

El Shaarawy wrote:Agreed with swan, many misconceptions in that video

El Shaarawy wrote:Kiranr pretty much summed it up

ES pls go lol people are actually trying to discuss things here Laughing
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Post by kiranr Thu May 16, 2013 4:29 am

@BarrileteCosmico wrote:Why does the US need to be an industrial country? The US is a rich country therefore it requires higher wages, hence it has a comparative disadvantage in producing. It should focus on services, which requires a higher skill-set and is more productive.

Yeah, that is true. I don't follow events in US as closely as i should, but i dont see many steps taken to reverse the conditions that led to the high unemployment in the first place. The government is still very large and there is no real movement in removing regulatory hurdles or other impediments that led to the loss of worker productivity in my opinion.

I think problems in the US are structural, but the way the government and the Fed are behaving seems to indicate that they think it is cyclical. I may not be right, but in my opinion, there is a reason why the corporates are still sitting on piles of cash.
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Post by zizzle Thu May 16, 2013 4:34 am

@Yuri Yukuv wrote:
Can you both (Grooverider and zizzle) tell us in your own words what you think brought about the crisis, what is the current problem and how can we solve it?
@Yuri Yukuv wrote:
@RealGunner wrote:Pretty sure Zizzle lives in US

Hes not american though, it is very strange for foreigners not from UK or US roots to take up these views. Its in fact rare for second generation immigrants to do as well, which I am one. Its just not a very popular opinion to have, especially as it is a bit counter intuitive to what we have been taught.

Well i agree with you that some foreigners tend to have this gloomy opinion on the economy but im not just any foreigner. I recently graduated with a masters degree in finance with a 3.7 GPA so at least im capable of creating my own opinions. More importantly i have a job that i would starve without, i have invested the the bulk of my savings (which isnt much but still..) in the stock market to cash in on what is now referred to as the federal reserve bubble, and more importantly i dont want to be anywhere near Lebanon as long as the situation in syria is not resolved (which wouldn't happen any time soon). So dont tell me that i wish for the U.S economy to crash coz i would suffer more than any citizen.

As for your question, i could just paraphrase the first chapter of my investment policies textbook but we both know its pointless.
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Post by zizzle Thu May 16, 2013 4:58 am

@Swanhends wrote:

omg rofl

22 seconds in: "governments and dragons and hippogriff's and unicorns and ghosts do not exist. There are really only people with guns and people running and hiding from them"

my sides Laughing

One part that I did find quite interesting though was 4:11-5:41

more nuttery 6:00-9:00

and another part that I found interesting again 9:04-9:48

This guy is a conservative right wing Libertarian so nuttery is not unusual to him Laughing however that doesnt change the fact that the majority of his points in the previous video are valid

on this video:
1- He was being sarcastic here, his opinion on governments is better explained in other videos. I've been trying to form my own "philosophical" view on governments but i just cant find one fit for all solution

2- He was also let down by his analogies and cynical approach.

3- A very valid point.

4- Cant argue with that

5- We all know (or should know) that politicians are just representatives of the people who donate their campaign money. Countless examples of regulations that favor big corporations are there to prove this. sarbane and oxley is just one.

6- Laughing. But his point is that governments is not inherently evil but their actions are.

7- I dont totally agree but at least he makes a debatable point


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Post by Grooverider Thu May 16, 2013 8:30 am

@Yuri Yukuv wrote:
@Grooverider wrote:


Well at the end of the day its pretty obvious that the future does look grim, irrelevant if you agree with him or not, The 'next generation' basically anyone under the age of 30...is not going to have it 'all' with opportunities at every turn.
Thats the reality. The economic system that we currently live under can not be sustained, as there is not such thing as 'infinite growth' or resources.

Its very interesting that you and zizzle are swayed by Molynaux's view even though you are both not american, the man has very right wing views and I myself consider him to be extreme.

Can you both (Grooverider and zizzle) tell us in your own words what you think brought about the crisis, what is the current problem and how can we solve it?

Im actually a British and an American Citizen, To answer your question i would watch Mike Rupperts 'Collapse'. People will always try and twist your words with debates like these, but the fact reminds that all of us will enter a 'new age'...so basically change is coming whether you like it or not.
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Post by Swanhends Thu May 16, 2013 2:25 pm

@Zizzle care to elaborate on what you mean when you say SarbOx favors big coporations?

Accountants love SarbOx, I interviewed with a managing partner at one accounting firm who used to work at E&Y, and she said before SarbOx the corporations used to basically tell the *auditors* what the numbers had to be, and it was the auditors job to help get everything there

Outside of accountants though, who wound up with increased business and power, what other corporations are helped by SOX?
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Post by zizzle Thu May 16, 2013 3:56 pm

The cost of compliance is extremely high and that either hurts the compatitivness of mid to small sized businesses businesses and discourages smaller private businesses from ever becoming public. Dilisting has also increased after passing the law.
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Post by RealGunner Thu May 16, 2013 3:58 pm

So much information about the US economy in here. Learnt so much thanks to you all.


We need to charge for this
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Post by Swanhends Thu May 16, 2013 4:05 pm

@zizzle wrote:The cost of compliance is extremely high and that either hurts the compatitivness of mid to small sized businesses businesses and discourages smaller private businesses from ever becoming public. Dilisting has also increased after passing the law.

Hmm...Personally I am a huge supporter of SarbOx

Cost is compliance was highest during the transition period, I think its gone down quite a bit as it becomes more and more ingrained in the corporate world. Even with the cost of compliance, I think that's well worth it for more reliable financial statements and stronger internal controls - can't have things like Enron/Adelphia/WorldComs etc and I think SarbOx goes a long way in helping to achieve that aim

Auditor independence, increased disclosure requirements, and management accountability for financial statements are all indispensable IMO
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