The US Economy Thread

+12
I Have Mono
RedOranje
sportsczy
CBarca
RealGunner
Grooverider
Kaladin
zizzle
Swanhends
kiranr
Yuri Yukuv
BarrileteCosmico
16 posters

Page 5 of 8 Previous  1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8  Next

Go down

The US Economy Thread - Page 5 Empty Re: The US Economy Thread

Post by Yuri Yukuv Mon Jul 29, 2013 11:55 pm

@BarrileteCosmico wrote:So who do you guys want as the next Fed Chairman?

Also in the Japan news they've hit 0.5% inflation (a record in a few years) but employers are reluctant to adjust wages.

I am firmly behind yellen to be honest, she is the perfect candidate for this time and age. Had good judgement with greenspan and bernanke, while being the architect of recent positive changes.

0.5% without wage inflation is great and bad at the same time, great cuz it means if there is wage inflation we should easily get up to 2.0% but if not then this whole thing could crash. I cant follow Japan too much right now just because emerging markets seems like where its at. We have countries crashing and burning and we will have much more of that when tapering begins, it should be very interesting in three or four months when that happens.

Yuri Yukuv
First Team
First Team

Posts : 1974
Join date : 2011-06-05

Back to top Go down

The US Economy Thread - Page 5 Empty Re: The US Economy Thread

Post by Swanhends Tue Jul 30, 2013 2:45 am

@BarrileteCosmico wrote:So who do you guys want as the next Fed Chairman?

Romer or Yellen

As an aside, at my internship I got a lot of free time so I spend most of it reading economics and market based news, and every time I make the mistake of scrolling down too far and catching a glimpse of the comments section its like getting acid poured into my eyes

Legions of goldbug/conspiracy theorist/abolish the fed types...and not one of them seems to have a proper understanding of inflation
Swanhends
Swanhends
Fan Favorite
Fan Favorite

Club Supported : Juventus
Posts : 8451
Join date : 2011-06-05

Back to top Go down

The US Economy Thread - Page 5 Empty Re: The US Economy Thread

Post by RealGunner Tue Jul 30, 2013 3:10 am

@Swanhends wrote:
@BarrileteCosmico wrote:So who do you guys want as the next Fed Chairman?

Romer or Yellen

As an aside, at my internship I got a lot of free time so I spend most of it reading economics and market based news, and every time I make the mistake of scrolling down too far and catching a glimpse of the comments section its like getting acid poured into my eyes

Legions of goldbug/conspiracy theorist/abolish the fed types...and not one of them seems to have a proper understanding of inflation

tell me about it Laughing

I find it difficult to sleep at night after reading some of the comments on anything political/economics/religious
RealGunner
RealGunner
Admin
Admin

Club Supported : Arsenal
Posts : 89084
Join date : 2011-06-05

Back to top Go down

The US Economy Thread - Page 5 Empty Re: The US Economy Thread

Post by BarrileteCosmico Tue Jul 30, 2013 3:56 am

We have countries crashing and burning and we will have much more of that when tapering begins, it should be very interesting in three or four months when that happens.
Interesting. Why do you say that? Nearly every developing country's minister of finance has spoken out against QE and its effect on the dollar (S. Korea, Brazil come to my mind). I would assume they'd be happy to see the tapering begin (so long as it doesn't adversely affect US growth too much) and enjoy the benefits of a weaker currency.
BarrileteCosmico
BarrileteCosmico
Admin
Admin

Club Supported : Barcelona
Posts : 27296
Join date : 2011-06-05
Age : 31

Back to top Go down

The US Economy Thread - Page 5 Empty Re: The US Economy Thread

Post by BarrileteCosmico Tue Jul 30, 2013 3:58 am

@Swanhends wrote:
@BarrileteCosmico wrote:So who do you guys want as the next Fed Chairman?

Romer or Yellen

As an aside, at my internship I got a lot of free time so I spend most of it reading economics and market based news, and every time I make the mistake of scrolling down too far and catching a glimpse of the comments section its like getting acid poured into my eyes

Legions of goldbug/conspiracy theorist/abolish the fed types...and not one of them seems to have a proper understanding of inflation

Just saw this interview with Scott Sumner vs Typical Economics Pundit and he is exactly what I think of when I read those comments: http://video.cnbc.com/gallery/?play=1&video=3000186394
BarrileteCosmico
BarrileteCosmico
Admin
Admin

Club Supported : Barcelona
Posts : 27296
Join date : 2011-06-05
Age : 31

Back to top Go down

The US Economy Thread - Page 5 Empty Re: The US Economy Thread

Post by Swanhends Tue Jul 30, 2013 1:55 pm

that man is the personification of the target of my rage.
Swanhends
Swanhends
Fan Favorite
Fan Favorite

Club Supported : Juventus
Posts : 8451
Join date : 2011-06-05

Back to top Go down

The US Economy Thread - Page 5 Empty Re: The US Economy Thread

Post by Yuri Yukuv Wed Jul 31, 2013 12:59 am

@BarrileteCosmico wrote:
We have countries crashing and burning and we will have much more of that when tapering begins, it should be very interesting in three or four months when that happens.
Interesting. Why do you say that? Nearly every developing country's minister of finance has spoken out against QE and its effect on the dollar (S. Korea, Brazil come to my mind). I would assume they'd be happy to see the tapering begin (so long as it doesn't adversely affect US growth too much) and enjoy the benefits of a weaker currency.

The reasons why such countries objected to QE are different from a cheapening dollar to imported inflation, but maybe most centrally hot money. As emerging markets are mostly capital starved they rely on the capital of others through debt, when there was interest rate differentials that was great. Developed world interest rates were going down while emerging markets were stable. That debt would be used to build infrastructure, business enterprises and other projects which would reinvigorate local economy and bring in hard currency. When interest rates in the US & Europe increase there will be less of an incentive to loan out to emerging markets and the newer more cost efficient projects will be in the developed world thus cutting both the flow of debt capital and the current account to emerging markets. That along with the slowing down in china as it rebalances to a consumer consumption economy will be devastating for the emerging markets. Last time I checked  emerging markets were underperforming the US by more than 25% this year, made some good money on NYSEARCA:EDZ and I think there will be more money to be made by the end of the year.

Long US durable goods such as autos/transport and housing as well as finance while shorting emerging markets and possibly gold will remain as the trade of the year me thinks.
Yuri Yukuv
Yuri Yukuv
First Team
First Team

Club Supported : Chelsea
Posts : 1974
Join date : 2011-06-05
Age : 76

Back to top Go down

The US Economy Thread - Page 5 Empty Re: The US Economy Thread

Post by Swanhends Wed Jul 31, 2013 2:06 am

Can someone explain to me in relatively simple terms the case for abolishing the FDA?

I've come to find many libertarian arguments convincing, but Im still not quite grasping how abolishing the FDA makes people safer (I think the efficiency argument is clear enough)
Swanhends
Swanhends
Fan Favorite
Fan Favorite

Club Supported : Juventus
Posts : 8451
Join date : 2011-06-05

Back to top Go down

The US Economy Thread - Page 5 Empty Re: The US Economy Thread

Post by Swanhends Wed Jul 31, 2013 7:36 pm

Been watching videos of Friedman and Sowell for like 36 hours now, I love listening to people who make me feel like a moron
Swanhends
Swanhends
Fan Favorite
Fan Favorite

Club Supported : Juventus
Posts : 8451
Join date : 2011-06-05

Back to top Go down

The US Economy Thread - Page 5 Empty Re: The US Economy Thread

Post by Yuri Yukuv Wed Jul 31, 2013 7:56 pm

@Swanhends wrote:Been watching videos of Friedman and Sowell for like 36 hours now, I love listening to people who make me feel like a moron

Wait, what? What made you change your mind like this?
Yuri Yukuv
Yuri Yukuv
First Team
First Team

Club Supported : Chelsea
Posts : 1974
Join date : 2011-06-05
Age : 76

Back to top Go down

The US Economy Thread - Page 5 Empty Re: The US Economy Thread

Post by Swanhends Wed Jul 31, 2013 11:05 pm

Im not sure I follow?
Swanhends
Swanhends
Fan Favorite
Fan Favorite

Club Supported : Juventus
Posts : 8451
Join date : 2011-06-05

Back to top Go down

The US Economy Thread - Page 5 Empty Re: The US Economy Thread

Post by Yuri Yukuv Thu Aug 01, 2013 2:49 pm

@Swanhends wrote:Im not sure I follow?

Werent you the biggest progressive on this forum?
Yuri Yukuv
Yuri Yukuv
First Team
First Team

Club Supported : Chelsea
Posts : 1974
Join date : 2011-06-05
Age : 76

Back to top Go down

The US Economy Thread - Page 5 Empty Re: The US Economy Thread

Post by Yuri Yukuv Thu Aug 01, 2013 2:50 pm

S&P 1,700 haters

Yuri Yukuv
Yuri Yukuv
First Team
First Team

Club Supported : Chelsea
Posts : 1974
Join date : 2011-06-05
Age : 76

Back to top Go down

The US Economy Thread - Page 5 Empty Re: The US Economy Thread

Post by Swanhends Sat Aug 03, 2013 12:46 am

@Yuri Yukuv wrote:
@Swanhends wrote:Im not sure I follow?

Werent you the biggest progressive on this forum?

Socially, certainly - Economically I care mostly about the ends, the means are not quite as important
Swanhends
Swanhends
Fan Favorite
Fan Favorite

Club Supported : Juventus
Posts : 8451
Join date : 2011-06-05

Back to top Go down

The US Economy Thread - Page 5 Empty Re: The US Economy Thread

Post by BarrileteCosmico Wed Aug 14, 2013 4:27 am

Check out this presentation by James Bullard, it has some great graphs and insight: http://research.stlouisfed.org/econ/bullard/pdf/BullardBrandeisMunicipalFinanceConference2August2013.pdf

One in particular on page 33 stands out to me. The balance sheet of the fed is not even the highest as a % of ngdp in its history, even after 3 rounds of QE.
BarrileteCosmico
BarrileteCosmico
Admin
Admin

Club Supported : Barcelona
Posts : 27296
Join date : 2011-06-05
Age : 31

Back to top Go down

The US Economy Thread - Page 5 Empty Re: The US Economy Thread

Post by BarrileteCosmico Thu Sep 05, 2013 10:06 pm

Anyone got any ideas as to how to estimate "money supply" in the football world? It would be interesting to use it as a proxy for inflation since something like a CPI would be impossible to build due to the lack of constant goods.
BarrileteCosmico
BarrileteCosmico
Admin
Admin

Club Supported : Barcelona
Posts : 27296
Join date : 2011-06-05
Age : 31

Back to top Go down

The US Economy Thread - Page 5 Empty Re: The US Economy Thread

Post by Kaladin Thu Sep 05, 2013 10:31 pm

Yeah i have to agree with BC, it would come in handy
Kaladin
Kaladin
Stormblessed

Club Supported : Real Madrid
Posts : 24267
Join date : 2012-06-28
Age : 28

Back to top Go down

The US Economy Thread - Page 5 Empty Re: The US Economy Thread

Post by zizzle Fri Sep 06, 2013 8:36 pm

its almost impossible to estimate seeing how the amount depends on how deep the pockets of owners are and how much they are willing to invest. But if we're to use the FFP guidelines (lol) it makes it just a little but easier. We'll just add the Free Cash Flow for each team (free cash flow here will include all the amounts that UEFA dont calculate like youth investements) and then add 45m or whatever limit Uefa has to that amount. Of course we'll have to calculate how much of this 45 the team has used already (Inter has used all the amount for example). We'll also need to factor in the ability of each team to obtain cash AND we'll need to factor in whether they're willing to go into the red in the first place.


The GDP of the teams will be a much better measurement tool for inflation. Just add up the revenues of each team and you've got it. compare the growth of revenue with whatever anchor you'd like to use (% increase of average spent sounds reasonable) and you'll get the "real" inflation in the transfer market
zizzle
zizzle
Fan Favorite
Fan Favorite

Club Supported : Juventus
Posts : 6887
Join date : 2011-06-05
Age : 101

Back to top Go down

The US Economy Thread - Page 5 Empty Re: The US Economy Thread

Post by Swanhends Wed Sep 11, 2013 12:31 am

Wait what?

People just use "inflated market" to express the idea that certain players are being sold for prices that are too high, obviously the transfer market is not actually inflated...

Am I missing something here? scratch

Swanhends
Swanhends
Fan Favorite
Fan Favorite

Club Supported : Juventus
Posts : 8451
Join date : 2011-06-05

Back to top Go down

The US Economy Thread - Page 5 Empty Re: The US Economy Thread

Post by BarrileteCosmico Sun Sep 15, 2013 11:09 pm

Summer pulls name from consideration

Literally gasped at these news.


Last edited by BarrileteCosmico on Sun Sep 15, 2013 11:11 pm; edited 1 time in total
BarrileteCosmico
BarrileteCosmico
Admin
Admin

Club Supported : Barcelona
Posts : 27296
Join date : 2011-06-05
Age : 31

Back to top Go down

The US Economy Thread - Page 5 Empty Re: The US Economy Thread

Post by BarrileteCosmico Sun Sep 15, 2013 11:11 pm

@Swanhends wrote:Wait what?

People just use "inflated market" to express the idea that certain players are being sold for prices that are too high, obviously the transfer market is not actually inflated...

Am I missing something here? scratch
Well if you think of the more money that oil clubs, the EPL deal and as such are bringing to the player market it is definitely like an increase in the total amount of money in circulation, which should lead to inflated prices.
BarrileteCosmico
BarrileteCosmico
Admin
Admin

Club Supported : Barcelona
Posts : 27296
Join date : 2011-06-05
Age : 31

Back to top Go down

The US Economy Thread - Page 5 Empty Re: The US Economy Thread

Post by Swanhends Mon Sep 30, 2013 3:35 pm

government shutdown possibly incoming, leadership of both parties making me want to smash my head against the wall

my opinion has been flipped upside down since the election
Swanhends
Swanhends
Fan Favorite
Fan Favorite

Club Supported : Juventus
Posts : 8451
Join date : 2011-06-05

Back to top Go down

The US Economy Thread - Page 5 Empty Re: The US Economy Thread

Post by I Have Mono Tue Oct 01, 2013 1:11 am

@Swanhends wrote:government shutdown possibly incoming, leadership of both parties making me want to smash my head against the wall

my opinion has been flipped upside down since the election
Do you think we should just keep raising the debt ceiling everytime we reach it ? Or do you feel that maybe just once we should stop spending beyond our means to the tune of 1 trillion dollar a year deficits for the last 5 years ? that have the country 16 trillion dollars in debt ?

Do you realize that despite the fact that the military budget is out of control, even if we spent 0$ a year on our military we would strill run a 400 billion dollar deficit. Maybe the Military isn't the only problem rather it might have more to do with the social programs that politicans promise their communities and in essence buying people's votes is.
Just curious what your take on the whole situation is ?

And I'm not 100% up to date on the current years deficit because im being too lazy to look it up.

I Have Mono
Starlet
Starlet

Posts : 515
Join date : 2012-01-09

Back to top Go down

The US Economy Thread - Page 5 Empty Re: The US Economy Thread

Post by Swanhends Tue Oct 01, 2013 2:08 am

@I Have Mono wrote:Do you think we should just keep raising the debt ceiling everytime we reach it ?
As compared to what? Refusing to raise the ceiling and defaulting on our debt? Are you serious?

Do you have any idea what the consequences of that are? It would be an absolute catastrophe.

@I Have Mono wrote:Or do you feel that maybe just once we should stop spending beyond our means to the tune of 1 trillion dollar a year deficits for the last 5 years ? that have the country 16 trillion dollars in debt ?
I do believe we should stop spending beyond our means, but the debt ceiling does not permit the government to borrow more money. Raising the debt ceiling only enables the government to pay back money congress already borrowed.

Swanhends
Swanhends
Fan Favorite
Fan Favorite

Club Supported : Juventus
Posts : 8451
Join date : 2011-06-05

Back to top Go down

The US Economy Thread - Page 5 Empty Re: The US Economy Thread

Post by CBarca Tue Oct 01, 2013 5:39 am

@Swanhends wrote:government shutdown possibly incoming, leadership of both parties making me want to smash my head against the wall

my opinion has been flipped upside down since the election
Can you elaborate on that? More just because I'm curious rather than having a particular issue with it, or anything like that.

Also, with the government shutting down, does anybody have any decent articles on the economic repercussions of this government shutdown? Or the many repercussions in general? Again, out of curiosity.
CBarca
CBarca
NEVER a Mod

Club Supported : Athletic Bilbao
Posts : 20139
Join date : 2011-06-17
Age : 25

Back to top Go down

The US Economy Thread - Page 5 Empty Re: The US Economy Thread

Post by I Have Mono Tue Oct 01, 2013 5:46 am

No we definitely shouldn't allow the country to default on its debt. I understand what raising the debt level does sorry I didn't make that clear.

I just feel considering the circumstances a 400-500 billion deficit per year seems reasonable and do-able and feel that since the last time we raised the debt ceiling congress should have been constantly cutting cost in order to get us there.

I'm mad at both side like you, GOP for threating to let us default on our debts, and the Dems for refusing to cut any money off our debt.

The 2011 budget resolution or whatever you want to call it is complete bullshit 1.2 Trillion over 10 years really, 120 billion, 10% of our national deficit every year. The deal should be about 5x that and we should have been working towards that for the last year, only then would I feel comfortable raising the debt ceiling.

Were caught in a shitty position we have to raise the debt ceiling but at the same time that's just enabling what is currently going on and pushing and even larger national debt onto our generations shoulders(not sure how old you are) but our parents generation of politicians are *bleep* us.

I Have Mono
Starlet
Starlet

Posts : 515
Join date : 2012-01-09

Back to top Go down

The US Economy Thread - Page 5 Empty Re: The US Economy Thread

Post by Sponsored content


Sponsored content


Back to top Go down

Page 5 of 8 Previous  1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8  Next

Back to top


 
Permissions in this forum:
You cannot reply to topics in this forum