2020 US presidential election

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Post by McLewis Fri Dec 11, 2020 11:36 pm

Yeah that's good stuff from The Bulwark. I don't read them nearly as much as I should.

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Post by McLewis Sat Dec 12, 2020 12:00 am



The Right have dubbed these post-election lawuists "The Kraken", but really it's been more of a hydra. 1 gets knocked down, 2 more pop up in its place.

In the case above, this seems to have been the penultimate head of the hydra and now it's been cut off. Let's see if it can be sealed off so no more heads sprout up. This is rather definitive from the very conservative Supreme Court.
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Post by Myesyats Sun Dec 13, 2020 10:47 pm



:facepalm:
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Post by CBarca Mon Dec 14, 2020 2:09 am

None of the other Trump's will be successful.

People don't give a shit about the Trump's. They care about Donald Trump. And honestly being a trump would likely hurt them. They would constantly compared to the person they're not, and the person many conservatives REALLY want.

It's actually going to be really interesting what direction the GOP goes post 2020
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Post by McLewis Tue Dec 15, 2020 2:23 am

Biden officially elected via electoral college 306-232, same margin as Trump's win 4 years ago. Trump still won't concede. Biden has apparently moved on from that.

Trump's AG, William Barr, resigned immediately after the votes finished.

It's been over for weeks, but it's really really REALLY over now.

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Post by BarrileteCosmico Tue Dec 15, 2020 2:28 am

@CBarca wrote:None of the other Trump's will be successful.

People don't give a shit about the Trump's. They care about Donald Trump. And honestly being a trump would likely hurt them. They would constantly compared to the person they're not, and the person many conservatives REALLY want.

It's actually going to be really interesting what direction the GOP goes post 2020
Trump retains a huge base. Don't underestimate a populist's ability to create a dynasty. He's old af, Ivanka is very popular and could probably blast through the primaries (if many candidates show and she retains a significant portion of the Trumpers), she would have a fighting chance in 2024.

And this is already a country that loves political dynasties.
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Post by McLewis Tue Dec 15, 2020 2:35 am

There seems to be buzz around Ivanka running for Senate. I think it's only a matter of time.

She will hold public office in some capacity. This much I'm sure of.
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Post by CBarca Tue Dec 15, 2020 2:41 am

That's a good point, but Trump's dynasty is based on low propensity voters who's concept of government policy is "rile up the libtards".

I'll retain some skepticism that any of the Trump's will hold a significant office at some point
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Post by BarrileteCosmico Tue Dec 15, 2020 11:24 am

So back in September the dems rejected a 1.5T deal from Repubicans that was "insufficient" and now it looks like they're going to settle for half of that... wth
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Post by Babun Tue Dec 15, 2020 11:29 am

He done for or done for?
@BarrileteCosmico wrote:So back in September the dems rejected a 1.5T deal from Repubicans that was "insufficient" and now it looks like they're going to settle for half of that... wth

Well, the proposal was rejected to make Trump look bad.

The consequences:
Shoplifting Spikes In U.S. Amid Increasing Desperation As Pandemic Drags On
https://www.forbes.com/sites/tommybeer/2020/12/10/shoplifting-spikes-in-us-amid-increasing-desperation-as-pandemic-drags-on/?sh=679a35eb216e
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Post by elitedam Fri Dec 18, 2020 12:04 pm

https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2020/12/trump-betting-markets-sportsbooks-offshore-2020-election-gambling.html

Interesting article about the 2020 presidential betting odds.
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Post by Babun Sun Jan 03, 2021 4:02 pm

There's a bilateral deal between China and the EU which is going to strengthen the economic bond between the two. Basically, Biden is shown the middle finger or cold shoulder (whichever way pleases you). After 4 years of Trump and the Nordstream 2 blackmail (Biden announced to continue with that), Europe is fed up with the US' unstable short sighted politics. Biden wanted to unite with Europe vs. China but no one in the EU trusts the US anymore.
US' degradation to 2nd/third tier world power is all but certain. The question is when.
https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/IP_20_2541
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Post by Art Morte Sun Jan 03, 2021 4:08 pm

I reckon the Biden presidency will be good for the US and EU relations, but there's no knowing what will happen after that, another Trump-esque Republican might win the 2024 election, so the EU absolutely shouldn't be counting on the US.

That said, I'm not a fan of getting close with China, either. China can't be trusted and will break all the rules if it suits them.
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Post by BarrileteCosmico Sun Jan 03, 2021 5:14 pm

You have more of a chance to influence China's behavior by trading with them than by ignoring them.

The flip side is that they have more influence over you too, so you have to be careful.
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Post by Myesyats Sun Jan 03, 2021 11:24 pm

@Babun wrote:There's a bilateral deal between China and the EU which is going to strengthen the economic bond between the two. Basically, Biden is shown the middle finger or cold shoulder (whichever way pleases you). After 4 years of Trump and the Nordstream 2 blackmail (Biden announced to continue with that), Europe is fed up with the US' unstable short sighted politics. Biden wanted to unite with Europe vs. China but no one in the EU trusts the US anymore.
US' degradation to 2nd/third tier world power is all but certain. The question is when.
https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/IP_20_2541

For us it's better Nordstream isn't finished. Russian influence over Europe would grow significantly and we're in the middle of it. I hope Berlin takes on a different course.
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Post by BarrileteCosmico Mon Jan 04, 2021 12:54 am

So how does everyone think the Georgia election will play out? Polls have bot dems up but by the slimmest of margins, not exactly confidence expiring.
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Post by Young Kaz Mon Jan 04, 2021 1:27 am

@BarrileteCosmico wrote:So how does everyone think the Georgia election will play out? Polls have bot dems up but by the slimmest of margins, not exactly confidence expiring.


No chance I think, which is sad because while I am indifferent on how much of a scumbag Perdue is, Kelly Loeffler is truly the scum of the earth. Textbook woman who slept her way into a job, used millions to get a seat she was never elected for, and spends her free time indulging her vanity and pal'ling around with former Klan members.
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Post by CBarca Mon Jan 04, 2021 1:37 am

Dems have reason to be optimistic regarding polling + data, but whether that's enough for them to get over the hump is another question.

I think there is a very real chance for Dems here, but I wouldn't blame anyone for being pessimistic (I am feeling that way myself, even if I see room for optimism).

I'll hope for the best and expect the worst
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Post by BarrileteCosmico Mon Jan 04, 2021 2:36 am

Audio: Trump berates Georgia secretary of state, urges him to ‘find’ votes

https://www.washingtonpost.com/video/politics/audio-trump-berates-georgia-secretary-of-state-urges-him-to-find-votes/2021/01/03/aba64f5f-8c3c-490f-af34-618ccea732d7_video.html

Yikes.

Hope trumpers are so disillusioned they never show.
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Post by Myesyats Mon Jan 04, 2021 10:18 am

Georgians will vote against their own self interests just to make others life miserable as well. How generous. I can't believe Mitch basically openly says fuck these peasants, give tax cuts to the rich instead, but they still vote for them. How loyal to the party can you be. And to think Mitch's state of Kentucky is home to 10 of the 25 poorest counties in US really is just perfectly splendid.
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Post by VivaStPauli Mon Jan 04, 2021 6:27 pm

@Art Morte wrote:I reckon the Biden presidency will be good for the US and EU relations, but there's no knowing what will happen after that, another Trump-esque Republican might win the 2024 election, so the EU absolutely shouldn't be counting on the US.

That said, I'm not a fan of getting close with China, either. China can't be trusted and will break all the rules if it suits them.


The thing is, with Republicans being the way they are, and the US switching parties every 8 years at the latest, nobody is gonna trust the US now, not after what the Trump administration did to the Iran Nuclear Deal and the Paris Climate Agreement;
why would you?
To just break international agreements, because you disagree with them, instead of honoring commitments your country made while helmed by a democratically elected government, and all of that for domestic politics reasons?

Why would any sane politician trust the US now? Better wait 20 years and see if future Republicans are less insane.
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Post by BarrileteCosmico Mon Jan 04, 2021 6:34 pm

The US might not be particularly trust-worthy, but if your other options for international heavy-weight allies are China and Putin, the EU is kind of stuck with them.
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Post by Babun Mon Jan 04, 2021 6:47 pm

@Myesyats wrote:
@Babun wrote:There's a bilateral deal between China and the EU which is going to strengthen the economic bond between the two. Basically, Biden is shown the middle finger or cold shoulder (whichever way pleases you). After 4 years of Trump and the Nordstream 2 blackmail (Biden announced to continue with that), Europe is fed up with the US' unstable short sighted politics. Biden wanted to unite with Europe vs. China but no one in the EU trusts the US anymore.
US' degradation to 2nd/third tier world power is all but certain. The question is when.
https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/IP_20_2541

For us it's better Nordstream isn't finished. Russian influence over Europe would grow significantly and we're in the middle of it. I hope Berlin takes on a different course.

The US put a lot of effort into influence with money and gimmicks to blackmail the EU over the gas transport (Ukraine regularly steals substantional amount of gas which goes from Russia to central Europe through the pipes, Poland always threatens to block the transport to get away with their rightwing BS). With the Nordstream 2, Europe will bypass US influece completly and would also make the US retreat from Poland and Ukraine. Without the intervention, they can be easily brought in line with the rest of the EU.
@BarrileteCosmico wrote:You have more of a chance to influence China's behavior by trading with them than by ignoring them.

The flip side is that they have more influence over you too, so you have to be careful.

It was the same with Iran. Take Iraq as an example, what did a military intervention bring for the peace in the region? Do you know how Isis was created? They were mostly remnants of Saddam's army who served as mercenaries. Violence creates more violences, was true throughout all of the ages in the human history.
Through the nuclear deal  with Iran and cultural exchange one can change a regime from the within. You can't change the mentality of people who grew up repressed by cutting them off from the world's cultural heritage. The idea is to make them part of that heritage so "they care" in the end. The deal was so hard to reach over years then Trump came and just threw everything out of the window. The refugees? USA don't care, Europe's problem. China is far worse for me but I understand countries who slowly back off from the US influence and come to closer to China. Pakistan would be the most prominent example as of now.
And yes, only through financial influence as a market one can influence China's behaviour unless you guys want a full sclae nuclear 3rd word war. We'd very much like to do the bidding with the US but the US politicians are too busy with themselves so European politicians decided to ditch cooperation with the US administration henceforth. The long term damage to the US would be huge.


Last edited by Babun on Mon Jan 04, 2021 6:57 pm; edited 1 time in total
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Post by futbol_bill Mon Jan 04, 2021 6:54 pm

You’re making an assumption that the only ‘big’ influential countries are USA, Russia and Chine. I would argue that the list includes UK and EU (given the economic strength and similar viewpoints, EU can be considered an influential bloc) and you can add countries like Japan, Australia and Canada not big but influential.

In other words the USA isn’t nearly as influential as it once was, there are alternatives without caving into Russia and China.
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Post by Babun Mon Jan 04, 2021 7:00 pm

@futbol_bill wrote:You’re making an assumption that the only ‘big’ influential countries are USA, Russia and Chine. I would argue that the list includes UK and EU (given the economic strength and similar viewpoints, EU can be considered an influential bloc) and you can add countries like Japan, Australia and Canada not big but influential.

In other words the USA isn’t nearly as influential as it once was, there are alternatives without caving into Russia and China.

This! Financial and market power are just as important as military prowess.
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Post by VivaStPauli Mon Jan 04, 2021 7:55 pm

@BarrileteCosmico wrote:The US might not be particularly trust-worthy, but if your other options for international heavy-weight allies are China and Putin, the EU is kind of stuck with them.


Oh they are sneaky, authoritarian, and basically criminal. But they've not been less stable than the US in the past 30 years.
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