Re: 2020 US presidential election

by VivaStPauli Mon Jan 04, 2021 7:55 pm

BarrileteCosmico wrote:The US might not be particularly trust-worthy, but if your other options for international heavy-weight allies are China and Putin, the EU is kind of stuck with them.

Oh they are sneaky, authoritarian, and basically criminal. But they've not been less stable than the US in the past 30 years.

by BarrileteCosmico Mon Jan 04, 2021 8:27 pm

Babun wrote:
futbol_bill wrote:You’re making an assumption that the only ‘big’ influential countries are USA, Russia and Chine. I would argue that the list includes UK and EU (given the economic strength and similar viewpoints, EU can be considered an influential bloc) and you can add countries like Japan, Australia and Canada not big but influential.

In other words the USA isn’t nearly as influential as it once was, there are alternatives without caving into Russia and China.

This! Financial and market power are just as important as military prowess.

I said "heavy-weight allies", so I didn't include the EU because they can't ally themselves. That said, the EU are structurally easy to make inefficient through internal division. Just look at how China exercises power through a few EU member states like Greece and stops the EU from taking action against them.

Japan could make the list, sure, are the rest "heavy weight" though? seem more to me like supplemental powers.

by Myesyats Mon Jan 04, 2021 8:59 pm

Babun wrote:
Myesyats wrote:
Babun wrote:There's a bilateral deal between China and the EU which is going to strengthen the economic bond between the two. Basically, Biden is shown the middle finger or cold shoulder (whichever way pleases you). After 4 years of Trump and the Nordstream 2 blackmail (Biden announced to continue with that), Europe is fed up with the US' unstable short sighted politics. Biden wanted to unite with Europe vs. China but no one in the EU trusts the US anymore.
US' degradation to 2nd/third tier world power is all but certain. The question is when.
https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/IP_20_2541

For us it's better Nordstream isn't finished. Russian influence over Europe would grow significantly and we're in the middle of it. I hope Berlin takes on a different course.

The US put a lot of effort into influence with money and gimmicks to blackmail the EU over the gas transport (Ukraine regularly steals substantional amount of gas which goes from Russia to central Europe through the pipes, Poland always threatens to block the transport to get away with their rightwing BS). With the Nordstream 2, Europe will bypass US influece completly and would also make the US retreat from Poland and Ukraine. Without the intervention, they can be easily brought in line with the rest of the EU.

What's the upside of being less dependant on US but in return being more prone to political pressure from Kreml? Germany will profit from this but we and other less influential states like Latvia and Lithuania are concerned about this and it transcends the left/right wing divide.

by BarrileteCosmico Tue Jan 05, 2021 2:17 am

https://reason.com/2021/01/04/as-key-georgia-senate-election-looms-republicans-are-making-it-difficult-to-root-for-divided-government/

So maybe the ideal outcome—even if an unlikely one—is a split decision.

If Republicans emerge from this run-off election with a 51–49 majority, that would still allow Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R–Ky.) to act as a needed roadblock. With a Democrat in the White House and a Democratic majority in the House, Republicans will probably rediscover their interest in fiscal conservatism. But putting that into practice—perhaps with a resurrection of the Obama-era spending caps that the Trump-era Republicans shattered—will require at least a slim GOP majority in the Senate.

A split decision Tuesday, pairing a single Republican victory with a single Republican loss, might do more to break the party's Trump fever than a wipeout loss would. A slim Republican Senate majority would maximize the leverage of moderate Republicans like Sens. Susan Collins (R–Maine) and Mitt Romney (R–Utah)—who happen to be some of the senators least corrupted by Trumpism.

Being in the minority, on the other hand, would elevate a different set of Republican senators. Rather than feeling like they've narrowly survived a bout with Trumpism, the party might sink further into that morass under the weight of Trump's grievances and (in his hardcore supporters' eyes) political martyrdom.

It's tempting to wish for Republicans to get swept on Tuesday. It's what they probably deserve after the past two months, to say nothing of the past four years. But for reasons centered in politics and policy, I'll spend Tuesday rooting—as usual—for both parties to lose.

Interesting take, would almost have me convinced if it didn't mean that universal health care would be dead on arrival (which the US urgently needs).

by McLewis Tue Jan 05, 2021 2:27 am

BarrileteCosmico wrote:So how does everyone think the Georgia election will play out? Polls have bot dems up but by the slimmest of margins, not exactly confidence expiring.

I hope for 2 Dem wins, believe it will be a split win (each party wins a seat) and am braced for the GOP to win both seats because it's Georgia.

I haven't been looking much at the polling. Collins keeping her seat in Maine erased what little faith I had left in them.

If 1 Dem wins, I tend to think it will be Warnock purely because Perdue is a tougher opponent for Ossoff and is less controversial than Loeffler has proven to be.

by Young Kaz Tue Jan 05, 2021 2:59 am

futbol_bill wrote:You’re making an assumption that the only ‘big’ influential countries are USA, Russia and Chine. I would argue that the list includes UK and EU (given the economic strength and similar viewpoints, EU can be considered an influential bloc) and you can add countries like Japan, Australia and Canada not big but influential.

In other words the USA isn’t nearly as influential as it once was, there are alternatives without caving into Russia and China.

Japan can barely prosecute American servicemen who rape women 2 blocks from the government seat. Japan is about as influential as your toilet seat.

by BarrileteCosmico Tue Jan 05, 2021 11:09 pm

In case any european posters were planning to stay up for this (unlikely), this is also expected to be a many day affair

by Pedram Wed Jan 06, 2021 1:29 am

BarrileteCosmico wrote:In case any european posters were planning to stay up for this (unlikely), this is also expected to be a many day affair

Democrats are doing quite well so far with 45% counted.

by BarrileteCosmico Wed Jan 06, 2021 2:27 am

Yeah looking good, but with a margin of only 1% who knows what we'll wake up to tomorrow. It's good Atlanta hasn't been counted yet tho.

by Freeza Wed Jan 06, 2021 4:15 am

The polls look like they were spot-on so far. Put some respect on them tbh.

by Young Kaz Wed Jan 06, 2021 4:21 am

BarrileteCosmico wrote:In case any european posters were planning to stay up for this (unlikely), this is also expected to be a many day affair

Its over honestly.

They didnt overperform in republican areas. Its like 85% democrat spots coming in now.

They need to forgive student loans day 1.

Long live the Democrat party. Eat Shit Kelly Loeffler.

by CBarca Wed Jan 06, 2021 5:03 am

Joe Manchin is the most powerful senator in the chamber

A Dem sweep in GA. Times are changing.

Congrats everybody and thank you to Black Americans even though America stomped on their heart once again today

by elitedam Wed Jan 06, 2021 10:32 am

Georgia

Stacey Abrams :bow:

by Myesyats Wed Jan 06, 2021 10:36 am

Kelly Loeffler blackened Warnock's skin on her campaign advertisement.
Perdue ran an ad with Ossoff's nose edited to appear longer alluding to his jewish roots.
and Trump made Biden look older in his ads.

I'm beginning to see a pattern here that I'm not sure I like. Scum of the earth!

by Young Kaz Wed Jan 06, 2021 12:50 pm

CBarca wrote:Joe Manchin is the most powerful senator in the chamber

A Dem sweep in GA. Times are changing.

Congrats everybody and thank you to Black Americans even though America stomped on their heart once again today

Dont forget Asian Americans, who solidified biden's large margins in places in the metro like Gwinett.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/11/25/us/georgia-asian-american-voters.html

I remember as a kid those places were hardcore red, and my grandparents would warn us never be there at night.....shits changed big time.

by BarrileteCosmico Wed Jan 06, 2021 2:10 pm

Myesyats wrote:Kelly Loeffler blackened Warnock's skin on her campaign advertisement.
Perdue ran an ad with Ossoff's nose edited to appear longer alluding to his jewish roots.
and Trump made Biden look older in his ads.

I'm beginning to see a pattern here that I'm not sure I like. Scum of the earth!

Fail to see how this is a winning strategy for her, figures the people who have a problem with his race are already voting for them. ...Maybe a way to bring out the racist vote?

by Pedram Wed Jan 06, 2021 3:37 pm

Republicans have a amazing talent in making Democrats look cooler than they are. remember that time when they photoshopped Lee Carter's face into a USSR poster. Laughing

2020 US presidential election - Page 9 Dnu2RooXoAM2y9Y

by Hapless_Hans Wed Jan 06, 2021 3:58 pm

yeah we could only dream of a Democratic Party that's actually like the Republicans paint them

I fucking wish

take their fucking guns away PLEASE

by Myesyats Wed Jan 06, 2021 3:58 pm

so both Dems have won? or what?

by rincon Wed Jan 06, 2021 4:50 pm

It seems that one won and one is winning but its too close to call yet

by CBarca Wed Jan 06, 2021 5:07 pm

However, to be clear, the Democrat that is winning that hasn't had the race called yet (Ossof) will win. This is like the presidency where the outcome isn't in doubt. I haven't checked the numbers but I assume networks are waiting for it to leave the "recount" territory and then they'll call it.

by BarrileteCosmico Wed Jan 06, 2021 5:25 pm

Yeah most remaining districts to be counted are blue. So he'll win by a few thousand votes, looks like..

Once again the GOP could really use a few thousand elderly people in their pocket right now. Who knew being the anti-science party could cost you an election.

So what can we dare to dream of at this moment? A 50 person majority is weak AF and I'm sure some 'centrist' dems will be a pain for Biden's agenda, just like Collins, Romney and Markowski were for Trump.

Also, while Reps might not have the senate, they still have the fillibuster...

That said, I dare to dream of:
-Universal healthcare (most important by a country mile)
-Statehood for DC and/or Puerto Rico
-Nationwide carbon 'dividend'
-Some form of relief for student loans
-Cannabis legalization
-More open immigration policies

PS hate the 2000 stimulus checks that are now a reality. Totally a waste of funds, increasing the UI to 600 a month is way more important for people actually struggling from Covid and got less than 10% of the attention.

by rincon Wed Jan 06, 2021 6:18 pm

BarrileteCosmico wrote:
So what can we dare to dream of at this moment? A 50 person majority is weak AF and I'm sure some 'centrist' dems will be a pain for Biden's agenda, just like Collins, Romney and Markowski were for Trump.
.

This is good though. If the country is so divided it shouldn't be ruled by a one sided supermajority.

by McLewis Wed Jan 06, 2021 7:19 pm

Interesting that as Republicans in Congress call for fairness in how their objections to the electoral votes are handled, Trump's supporters are overwhelming Capitol Police and scaling the walls of the Capitol building itself. No military, no national guard. No tear gas, no rubber bullets. They have physically attacked police with no repercussions.

They tore down fencing (destruction of federal property) in order to storm the Capitol itself.

It's funny.....if they were were a few shades darker, it'd be a warzone down there.

The irony is I saw some pro-police flags flying, as they attack the Capitol police.

Trump fomented this and Republicans have largely been silent. To them, only the left destroys shit when it's pissed off. It's apparently inconceivable that their own supporters could do the same.

by Young Kaz Wed Jan 06, 2021 7:34 pm

Police would have killed minorities trying to do this blocks ago.

National guard needs to come in and lay waste to this trash. Im tired of it.

by BarrileteCosmico Wed Jan 06, 2021 7:38 pm

rincon wrote:
BarrileteCosmico wrote:
So what can we dare to dream of at this moment? A 50 person majority is weak AF and I'm sure some 'centrist' dems will be a pain for Biden's agenda, just like Collins, Romney and Markowski were for Trump.
.

This is good though. If the country is so divided it shouldn't be ruled by a one sided supermajority.

Don't disagree, but we may get some very watered down improvements as a result.

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