The Coronavirus Thread - Part 3

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Post by BarrileteCosmico Thu Oct 01, 2020 6:18 pm

@Zagadka wrote:I appreciate your very specifically scientific and guideline-driven approach BC.

Maybe it's a cultural thing, but I haven't been to Anglosphere for over a year, but it appears as the public there is taking is A LOT more seriously and severely than Slavistan. They didn't let for example my mom on a plane from Canada to US even after her 14 day quarantine in Toronto, as they said the day they she arrived doesn't count, and hence she had to return to the airport on the 15th day.

So maybe I am a bit out of touch with reality of most people here, because frankly following to the tee what you described above would get you ridiculed and socially isolated here in Poland. People would treat you as a paranoid weirdo with no balls. Even the older generation here who are "at risk" don't go to such careful length of what you described. Laughing

That's why I genuinely think I'll feel like an alien zombie if I returned to Canada tomorrow, for example.

I don't really know the reality in Poland, maybe @myesyats can add additional context for what locals think there, but fear of being ridiculed doesn't seem like the smartest way to make decisions about a public health crisis.

I can understand refusing to quarantine or being upset at some of the other measures being used to curb Covid. Asking people not to work or see their loved ones is unreasonable for extended periods of time. Masks, though, seem like such a low-effort high-reward tool that I have a very hard time seeing why anyone cares that much about them.

I'm also not sure why you keep referring to the Anglosphere. If anything Anglo countries are behind the curve and Asian countries take it far more seriously, to much greater success.

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Post by Babun Thu Oct 01, 2020 6:26 pm

People refusing to wear a mask = kids with tantrums, never grew up to be a responsible adult, the real snowflakes of the current generation.

@Topic:
Spain and France regurally breach 10000+ new infections per day mark, the number of deaths in Spain is climbing to tripple digits. Also in Russia, the numbers are rising at an alarming rate (death numbers, the ones which count). Italy is doing the best as of now, I can guess they were shocked the first time enough so they wear their masks in public even if no one asks them. We've got some hotspots in Germany, managable as of now. The complicated clusters are in Berlin because the people don't listen the local politicians are kind of incompetent as well.
I don't have a good feeling come december. It looks like the start of the 2020 all over.
@Zagadka wrote:
So maybe I am a bit out of touch with reality of most people here, because frankly following to the tee what you described above would get you ridiculed and socially isolated here in Poland. People would treat you as a paranoid weirdo with no balls. Even the older generation here who are "at risk" don't go to such careful length of what you described. Laughing

Two wrongs don't make it right. You know it's wrong. Why are you joining the party then?
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Post by Zagadka Thu Oct 01, 2020 6:40 pm

^ Because I live alone in a completely foreign country and I much rather take my chances with a disease I have 99.99% chance of beating, than face depression, isolation, mental breakdown and at home alcoholism.

I am not responsible for any other young person who may want to party and if they are in touch with their elders. I am in close contact with absolutely ZERO elderly people here. This is a very young city by the way.

I wash my hands, wear mask in congested places...but sorry I can't sacrifice my entire social life and mental health when no one is yet to even tell us where is the end point and light at the end of the tunnel which could be years away...
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Post by El Gunner Thu Oct 01, 2020 7:05 pm

Sepp, to you, i raise a glass drinking
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Post by Babun Fri Oct 02, 2020 11:06 am

Argentine with a crazy death spike due to Wuhan virus (+3,352 in one day). Do they count differently or is it that bad?
@Zagadka wrote:^ Because I live alone in a completely foreign country and I much rather take my chances with a disease I have 99.99% chance of beating, than face depression, isolation, mental breakdown and at home alcoholism.

I am not responsible for any other young person who may want to party and if they are in touch with their elders. I am in close contact with absolutely ZERO elderly people here. This is a very young city by the way.

I wash my hands, wear mask in congested places...but sorry I can't sacrifice my entire social life and mental health when no one is yet to even tell us where is the end point and light at the end of the tunnel which could be years away...

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Post by BarrileteCosmico Fri Oct 02, 2020 1:22 pm

@Babun wrote:Argentine with a crazy death spike due to Wuhan virus (+3,352 in one day). Do they count differently or is it that bad?

I think that's a data adjustment for previously unreported cases (I think there were 2 of them in the 3k range).

But it really is that bad, last time I checked the % positive is 58% so there aren't enough tests to truly gauge how many cases there are.
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Post by sportsczy Fri Oct 02, 2020 5:10 pm

Love Argentina... but the politics and economics there are absolutely hilarious.

Fun fact: Real estate prices in Buenos Aires are more expensive than NY. Why you may ask? The currency is useless. Real estate is used as a bank basically.
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Post by Babun Fri Oct 02, 2020 6:51 pm

@BarrileteCosmico wrote:
@Babun wrote:Argentine with a crazy death spike due to Wuhan virus (+3,352 in one day). Do they count differently or is it that bad?

I think that's a data adjustment for previously unreported cases (I think there were 2 of them in the 3k range).

But it really is that bad, last time I checked the % positive is 58% so there aren't enough tests to truly gauge how many cases there are.

Shocked
@sportsczy wrote:Love Argentina... but the politics and economics there are absolutely hilarious.  

Fun fact:  Real estate prices in Buenos Aires are more expensive than NY.  Why you may ask?  The currency is useless.  Real estate is used as a bank basically.

If one puts aside the bogus prices in the markets, real estate is the safest investment for when one gets old but I would never get more than one. It's the same reason French and Italians are richer than Germans in reality.
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Post by BarrileteCosmico Fri Oct 02, 2020 10:15 pm

@sportsczy wrote:Love Argentina... but the politics and economics there are absolutely hilarious.  

Fun fact:  Real estate prices in Buenos Aires are more expensive than NY.  Why you may ask?  The currency is useless.  Real estate is used as a bank basically.
not to derail the thread, but everyone with money is moving to uruguay right now, although the arg govt is doing everything they can to block those moves. Seems like a good real estate investment opportunity to get in before covid ends and more flock there

https://www.economist.com/the-americas/2020/09/26/why-argentines-are-flocking-to-uruguay
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Post by Art Morte Wed Oct 07, 2020 12:18 pm

@Zagadka wrote:
So maybe I am a bit out of touch with reality of most people here, because frankly following to the tee what you described above would get you ridiculed and socially isolated here in Poland. People would treat you as a paranoid weirdo with no balls. Even the older generation here who are "at risk" don't go to such careful length of what you described.  Laughing

Cases in Poland rising rapidly now. Two weeks ago new daily cases went above 1000, today's figure is over 3000 for the first time during the pandemic. 75 daily deaths the latest number. If the Polish prefer fewer restrictions and more cases, fair enough, but that's how it's going to go.
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Post by CBarca Wed Oct 07, 2020 12:40 pm

Yeah art but if you wear a mask you're a pussy
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Post by Zagadka Wed Oct 07, 2020 1:02 pm

@Art Morte wrote:
@Zagadka wrote:
So maybe I am a bit out of touch with reality of most people here, because frankly following to the tee what you described above would get you ridiculed and socially isolated here in Poland. People would treat you as a paranoid weirdo with no balls. Even the older generation here who are "at risk" don't go to such careful length of what you described.  Laughing

Cases in Poland rising rapidly now. Two weeks ago new daily cases went above 1000, today's figure is over 3000 for the first time during the pandemic. 75 daily deaths the latest number. If the Polish prefer fewer restrictions and more cases, fair enough, but that's how it's going to go.


It's everywhere Art. not just Poland. Even in places that never opened up anywhere near as much as Poland did, the cases are going up at even a higher rate. so it has little to do with "restrictions in place". Also, I wish we had a better metric as opposed to "cases"...like how many are actually sick/need hospitalization/use of medical service.

We do have restrictions here by the way, depending on severity of affected areas.

In Red Zones, wearing a mask outside is mandatory and restaurants/bars are to be closed at 10pm (gov't is having issuing enforcing this mind you)

In Yellow zones, wearing a mask outside is mandatory.

I live in a normal zone, so far so good.

Again, I wrote a long blog post last night, a memoir of quarantine...and this is how I ended it. Please if anyone can answer this to me, I'll appreciate it. With my complete sincerity and honesty.

What is the endpoint? Where is the end of this runnel? What are we trying to achieve and how do we get there?

I see gov't of Australia is arranging 2021 budget with the assumption that international borders will remain close for the majority of 2021. Assuming this becomes a global trend....will any airlines/hospitality establishments even survive?

programs like CERB, furloughs don't look to be continuing...so are we ready for an economic massacre? from what I am seeing, if you thought 2020 was bad...well good luck. 2021 is when shit will go in the air.
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Post by Myesyats Wed Oct 07, 2020 1:10 pm

I can't speak for everyone but from what I've observed 99% of people wear masks in closed spaces like supermarket/post office, not sure about public transport though because I don't use it, that's where the issue may be in that people neglect covering their face in buses/trams.

Probably depends on your environment but I haven't seen or heard about people ridiculing others for wearing a mask as if that would make one a pussy. I've seen people not give a fuck but they wouldn't tease others about it, it's more a case of not caring rather than not believing that masks help.

Restrictions are way tougher in places where there's a large number of cases. However, similarly to the US, Covid in Poland was for a long period of time used as a political tool since we also had presidential elections right before the summer.

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Post by Art Morte Wed Oct 07, 2020 4:36 pm

@Zagadka wrote:
What is the endpoint? Where is the end of this runnel? What are we trying to achieve and how do we get there?


Save lives and at the very least guarantee that hospitals can treat everyone who needs treatment. Apparently Paris hospitals ICU capacity is at 40% currently and that's just one of the things you don't want run out of. I'm all for a balanced approach, but I rather have over-the-top measures than measures that were too little and lead to loss of lives that could have been saved.
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Post by CBarca Wed Oct 07, 2020 5:25 pm

Pretty simple. End goal = vaccine. Until then, common sense restrictions like mask mandates + keeping really really high risk activities like bars, indoor weddings, theaters and other places of massive indoor congregation (schools should attempt to stay open but have a lot of restrictions in place) at a lower capacity (25%, extending up to 50 or even 75% in areas where coronavirus growth is small or in more rural areas) until a vaccine is found.

Majority of businesses can continue to operate like normal but with mask mandates.

People exercise social distancing often and generally try to keep to people within their pod of 5-10 people, which is most people's lives anyway. If you have contact with someone who is positive, or you get sick, get tested and quarantine.

With these common sense restrictions (and that's really not many restrictions), if people actually stick to them, it's going to be difficult for coronavirus to multiply enough to put hospitals at capacity. It can also keep coronavirus growth low enough to save countless lives.

Here in WI, with our insane drinking culture, we are seeing hospitals become overwhelmed (like we've seen how many times before?). Patients are having to be flown out to other hospitals around the state. Nurses are begging for people to listen to coronavirus guidelines, and deaths and hospitalizations are growing. It's worse here than it ever has been.

Will there be suffering? Sure. The other part of this plan is for govt to do it's job and keep people afloat while we get our vaccine trials done. That includes businesses.

And if things need to be shut down again, then that may need to happen. But if people follow these common sense guidelines, there is no need for a shutdown. Quite frankly, most people already live their lives this way anyway. The most people are giving up would be theaters and bars.
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Post by CBarca Wed Oct 07, 2020 5:31 pm

I still have no clue why people are doing the "coronavirus restrictions = economic decline" equation.

Here in the US, most places are open. Maybe they're restricted by a mask mandate and that's it. Life looks like it always has done. Economic decline has to do with the fact that a massive pandemic hit the globe earlier this year and is still around and influencing people's behavior because of it.

Economy was always going to tank in response. Getting coronavirus under control is something that needs to be done to ALLOW the economy to flourish. Not the other way around.
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Post by Art Morte Wed Oct 07, 2020 7:01 pm

^ I agree that the economy is going to tank whether or not there are restrictions although the exact numbers will be affected by restrictions. But it's never going to be a normal economic situation with a virus of this caliber going around.

I'm not 100% on the "a vaccine will end this" train. Because the challenges seem to be big in development, efficacy, distribution, duration... It's been 90% the politicians - rather than the scientists - who have been banging on about vaccine development and that's a worry. If anything, scientists have been always giving much more cautious statements about covid-19 vaccines than politicians.

There was a rather startling suggestion from the WHO about a week ago that about 10% of the world's population may have already had the virus. That's some 800m people while the confirmed cases are below 40m. I'm not sure I believe it's 10%, but I do believe it's much, much more than the confirmed cases number. Who knows, we might hit some level of herd immunity before a vaccine's been widely distributed.
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Post by CBarca Wed Oct 07, 2020 10:52 pm

Sure, I never said restrictions weren't contributing factors, but I don't like the idea that somehow they're the main contributing factor. This virus is in the world no matter your restrictions.

If people just altered their behavior more than what happens to be extremely convenient for them, and I mean everyone collectively, we could be like New Zealand and covid would be something we don't have to think about all that much. But people don't give a flying fuck
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Post by Babun Wed Oct 14, 2020 8:19 pm

The second wave has arrived in Europe. The correlation between cold weather and the Wuhan virus' spike is undeniable thus I think the wave will subside somewhere in April 2021.
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Post by Jay29 Wed Oct 14, 2020 9:30 pm

Update from the UK: still a shambles.

So the current government has introduced a new three-tier system for imposing restrictions:
- Medium: "Rule of Six" comes into effect, meaning no more than six people from different households can mix. Pubs/restaurants must close at 10.
- High: No mixing of different households at all, either outside or inside.
- Very High: Pubs not serving food must close completely + no mixing, even in outdoor areas.

This is being applied locally, rather than for the whole country. Liverpool and Nottingham are currently "very high" risk and are the current hotspots for the virus. My own county, Essex, has actually requested to have their level increase from medium to high as the council here believes cases are increasing exponentially soon and want to head it off.

Labour has been arguing for a circuit breaker for the whole country. Basically a short lockdown to halt the spread's momentum. Tories are against it and think their current system is "robust" enough to handle it. Problem is, local lockdowns are undermined by no travel restrictions and a dodgy track and trace system.

There's a rightful targeting of the hospitality sector as a big driver of infection, but nothing for universities. Most of the major hotspots are university cities and infection has been driven by students socialising and partying.

Hospital admissions and deaths are unfortunately increasing. While the worst case scenario predicted by the chief medical officer hasn't come to pass, it's only a matter of time, at the rate we're going, that hospitals will fill.

Generally, the UK is vulnerable to this virus. There's a lot of obesity and overweight people. Diets are poor with a lack of proper nutrition. Vitamin D levels are low due to the weather and it's going to stay that way because it's been raining a lot recently. There's a pub-going culture. Mask wearing still isn't universal. I went to ASDA last weekend and saw plenty of masks, yet still lots of people without anything covering their face and nobody was refusing them entry. I drive past a secondary school on the way to work and I see no masks on the kids whatsoever, yet they're all gathering in their year bubbles.

And we've yet to even reach our cold season yet. It's been wet but temperatures are still lingering between 13 and 17 on most days. Hate to think what might happen when we move into December and it drops closer to zero.

Northern Ireland are entering a short lockdown next week, Wales have imposed stricter restrictions on travel and Scotland are considering a circuit breaker as well. The scientists here recommend England do the same but the gov is resisting it.


Last edited by Jay29 on Thu Oct 15, 2020 8:41 am; edited 1 time in total

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Post by Art Morte Thu Oct 15, 2020 7:03 am

Finland's daily numbers have been steady for a week or two now, high 200s. It feels inevitable that the numbers will keep on growing, here and elsewhere. Some expert was saying the other day that this will be the new normal until at least the summer. I've a feeling people - and not just the young - might start to accept the risk of infection more and more.
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Post by BarrileteCosmico Thu Oct 15, 2020 11:45 pm

- Very High: Pubs not serving food must close completely + no mixing, even in outdoor areas.

We have a very similar rule here, every pub started serving food so it made no difference
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Post by Jay29 Thu Oct 15, 2020 11:57 pm

That's exactly what's happening here. Pubs are just selling cornish pasties now. Laughing

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Post by CBarca Fri Oct 16, 2020 12:27 am

WI is getting slammed right now. We've set the new cases daily record probably 5 times in the last two weeks, if not more. We just broke the record for most deaths in a day in consecutive days.

We've had more positive cases since Sep 1 than the entire pandemic prior. We actually have thousands more cases since Sep 1 than the entire pandemic prior.

Things are not well, here. There is no sign of it improving, either. Things are just getting worse.
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Post by Art Morte Fri Oct 16, 2020 7:15 am

There is this feeling right now that this thing won't be stopped. There doesn't seem to be appetite anywhere for the sort of lockdown measures that brought the numbers way down in the summer. These half-measures that I'm reading about from everywhere probably are not enough to stop the growing numbers.
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Post by Myesyats Fri Oct 16, 2020 11:08 am

Yeah rapid rise in cases in Poland too because of the gvmt being stupid, the rise kinda correlates with schools re-opening tho, so they're closing schools, gyms etc.

Schools should have never re-opened after the summer, I talked about this in august smh

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