Who will win the WC?

Zizou wrote:I did vote for germany when WC started... (call me insane) and I did think Holland - Germany for the Final...
yet, my greatest hero of all times (Nate Silver) predicts Germany Argentinia with a win of Germany...

He also said Brazil had a 65% chance of winning against Germany. Doubt any of his 10,000 simulations had quite this result in mind...

In fairness he gives ARG-NED basically 50/50 odds, which sounds fine to me.

If the Dutch win the World Cup this year, they will have beaten each of the teams against whom they lost a World Cup Finals in reverse chronological order:
Spain (2010)
Argentina (1978)
Germany (1974)

please save us Netherlands from NR and MFB.Amen

BarrileteCosmico wrote:

Zizou wrote:I did vote for germany when WC started... (call me insane) and I did think Holland - Germany for the Final...
yet, my greatest hero of all times (Nate Silver) predicts Germany Argentinia with a win of Germany...

He also said Brazil had a 65% chance of winning against Germany. Doubt any of his 10,000 simulations had quite this result in mind...

In fairness he gives ARG-NED basically 50/50 odds, which sounds fine to me.

He did?

Quote from Five Thrity eight:

Our forecast, which gives Brazil a 54 percent chance of treating its home fans to a title, doesn’t account for these player absences. This article will attempt to measure their impact and recalculate the numbers.

That was before Neymar was out!

here is the up to date statistik...

http://fivethirtyeight.com/interactives/world-cup/

to my Knowledge Nate Silver never failed!

yet van persie is so much better looking than Messi...
I would love Holland - Germany for the final...

just got a message on FB from a old friend saying:

" I met a Dutch Guy at the Gas Station - he said: oh, you are playing Brazil - good luck - we will be playing Argentinia tomorrow - and I said: yeah... we'll be playing them on Sunday"

loved that!

Lupi wrote:If the Dutch win the World Cup this year, they will have beaten each of the teams against whom they lost a World Cup Finals in reverse chronological order:
Spain (2010)
Argentina (1978)
Germany (1974)

please save us Netherlands from NR and MFB.Amen

They won't

if they get passed Argentinia (which I highly doubt) we will NOT let them take the "Thing"...

Today was as much of a loss by Brazil as a win by Germany. The score-line doesn't really mean anything. Germany have a recent history of not backing up their big margin wins.

I still have this baseless suspicion Argentina will win the whole damn thing. Baseless because its hard to predict how the argentine midfield and defence will handle their real first test of the tournament, without Di Maria what's more. Just feel Higuain/Aguero/Messi will be too much for the Dutch to handle.

Zizou wrote:He did?

Quote from Five Thrity eight:

Our forecast, which gives Brazil a 54 percent chance of treating its home fans to a title, doesn’t account for these player absences. This article will attempt to measure their impact and recalculate the numbers.

That was before Neymar was out!

here is the up to date statistik...

http://fivethirtyeight.com/interactives/world-cup/

to my Knowledge Nate Silver never failed!

54% of winning the title, 73% of winning against Germany.

Then he adjusted for Neymar and TS's exit and gave them a 65% of winning against Germany.

http://espnfivethirtyeight.files.wordpress.com/2014/07/mccann-gamestowatch-7-8.png

http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/world-cup-semifinal-crib-notes-brazil-vs-germany/

He is now calling it the most shocking result in world cup history, but I think it's likelier his model was just flawed and didn't account for the possibility of teams getting demoralized.

http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/the-most-shocking-result-in-world-cup-history/

Moral of the story: the betting markets are still the best predictor of future results, even though they have flaws, rather than statistical rankings.

Don't call me James wrote:I think Germany will win it.

BarrileteCosmico wrote:

Zizou wrote:He did?

Quote from Five Thrity eight:

Our forecast, which gives Brazil a 54 percent chance of treating its home fans to a title, doesn’t account for these player absences. This article will attempt to measure their impact and recalculate the numbers.

That was before Neymar was out!

here is the up to date statistik...

http://fivethirtyeight.com/interactives/world-cup/

to my Knowledge Nate Silver never failed!

54% of winning the title, 73% of winning against Germany.

Then he adjusted for Neymar and TS's exit and gave them a 65% of winning against Germany.

http://espnfivethirtyeight.files.wordpress.com/2014/07/mccann-gamestowatch-7-8.png

http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/world-cup-semifinal-crib-notes-brazil-vs-germany/

He is now calling it the most shocking result in world cup history, but I think it's likelier his model was just flawed and didn't account for the possibility of teams getting demoralized.

http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/the-most-shocking-result-in-world-cup-history/

Moral of the story: the betting markets are still the best predictor of future results, even though they have flaws, rather than statistical rankings.

Thanks for correction...
interesting!

Natalie Portman wrote:I think Germany-Dutch final will be a lot more closer, than Germany-Argie.

Germant are just so damn good at exposing these South American holes in their naive tactics. They did it 4 years ago to Arg, and today to Brazil.  With Di Maria out as well, I fear for Argentina's midfield vs. Germany.

plus, Arg vs. Brazil 3rd match place will be decent. so come on Holland !

Argentina's tactics seem more European than South American to me.

In fact watching them against Belgium gave off a very Italian feel to me, its not like Maradona's team where it was 5 attackers plus the back 4 and Mascherano.

This team seems to be Messi plus 10 workhorses, even Higuain works hard for the team, i don't think Germany would cut them open like they did to Brazil.

Mind you i never thought Brazil would either so we'll wait and see.

l'd make a prediction, but l'm always wrong so it's cool

RealGunner wrote:Argentina still for me.

Same here. Years ago I said it will be Lionel Messi's date with destiny. Now he just needs to make my words come true.

Lupi wrote:If the Dutch win the World Cup this year, they will have beaten each of the teams against whom they lost a World Cup Finals in reverse chronological order:
Spain (2010)
Argentina (1978)
Germany (1974)

Excellent point

Never before had it happened in a world cup that both the semi finals featured teams from a final of the past. Now even the final will do the same.

Zizou wrote:
http://fivethirtyeight.com/interactives/world-cup/

Wish I had seen this site earlier. It would have been fun to follow.