Re: EURO 2020 Final: England - Italy

by Arquitecto Fri Jul 09, 2021 12:41 pm

So I have come to the conclusion this will be Italy's hardest test yet.

Not because England are better than them.
Not because of the nerves of being in a final and in the Lion's den of Wembley in front of fans seeing their country in a final in the first time in 55 years.
And not because England have the most dangerous front three of the tournament and more depth on bench above anyone.

But because they are a team above Spain and Belgium that exploit Italy's weaknesses above anyone.

We will begin with the midfield which really is the defining factor of Italy as the only times I see this Italy midfield struggle in offence is when physically they are bullied as Jorginho, Barella and Verratti are all relatively small, slight of frame and tend to become flustered when often bullied in a physical range. Against Spain it was a more tactical problem but England in their physical midfield should be able to disrupt their flow.

You disrupt that there will be no service to a front-line that is effectively the weakest segment of the team that has wowed the world.

The front three is highly talented but seem to be quite individualistic and at odd ends with another in ways to which goals are being scored more through individual brilliance than anything.

Insigne for me has been comfortably the best forward not just because he scored the best goal of the tournament for Italy and the arguably most crucial goal for them. But because he is consistently involved in the play and always looks in control of what he is doing along with being a creative spark on the left. His deft playmaking v Belgium to that chance he created for Emerson Palbidone's post shot v Spain is just an example.

Chiesa also has been brilliant but is not as involved at times given he can be a bit selfish but rises to the occassion one time or another in the 90 mins.

The sole problem is the lack of #9 as Immobile outside of the group stage and an impressive display has officially lost his confidence and is close to useless even in the things he does best. Scoring of course, being comfortable in all areas of the final third and of course what is his best trait, leading the line. Yes the system does not bring out his strengths but the only alternative is Belotti who has not looked like scoring at all and then Berardi who is not a natural goalscorer by any stretch.

So this front-three who is not producing beyond their individual efforts is bound to be nullified by the best defence so far in the tournament.

England have yet to concede in open play and the only goal was from a free-kick.

Then we have England in their ridiculously stacked front-three in Sterling-Kane and Sancho/Saka.

Sancho is likely to cause more problems then Saka given his pace will cause Emerson a lot of problems. On the other side we have Di Lorenzo who has brilliant reading of the game but is not the least bit comfortable against pace, as displayed by Doku's performance against him, in Italy v Belgium.

Southgate is average but is smart enough to see Italy's weakness is on the flanks as Spinazzola was a bigger loss than what I even imagined.

It isn't just Spinna's defensive ability its his sheer deftness to zip up the line and keep the opposition back in attack that also helps the team on BOTH ends.

Then we have Harry Kane who yes has a record of being made invisible by Chiellini but Kane has much evolved since then. And we know how as he is not just a #9 but very uncharacteristically for an English #9, one who drops deeps, links-up and draws out defenders due to his more intelligent movement so a past record means little.

Average Southgate also is intelligent enough to see Enrique literally created a gameplan against Italy for him to use. The defining factor on why Italy were so troubled was him eliminating any reference point and the lack of adaptation to that is what caused their organisation to be in disarray.

Kane will play the usual way but like against Denmark he will drop deep and not just look to score in the box. Do the math on what that may cause.

Italy's 4-3-3 simply has slowly been see game after game for what it does have in its weaknesses as Mancini has intelligently stuck to what's worked but it also has given coaches a lot to work with since he has yet to switch things up.

What would one suggest? I hope more for a 3-5-2 if I had to make a change with Bastoni slotting with Chiellini and Bonucci along with the fullbacks deployed as wingbacks, and Chiesa paired with Insigne up front.

The 3 would contain the front three preventing a weak split down the middle and the 5 would present a heavier midfield advantage.

Where it would be weak is that the 5 would be susceptible to counters and all in all its easy to say this formation would change that but that is why Mancini is the coach and I am not, for switching into a completely unfamiliar system would just be....impractical and a huge risk.

What I can see happening is that England, who've yet to truly be pressed and have their defence attacked head on, have the most skilled team they've faced by far. And Italy do press more than anyone this tournament. I also can see that if the midfield 3 do manage to find comfort against England's midfield in the first ten, in that, will set the tone for the game.

England would be wise to play their game as defensively compact, patient in the midfield and letting the forwards do their own work.

They are not a great team by any means per say they've had a relatively easier path to the finals than Italy and also have played in Wembley basically all their matches including the coming final but them being just the team to match Italy's weaknesses, will cause more problems than one may think.

By the way I really want to hear thoughts on why England may lose to Italy from the ones who've watched England through the tournament.

Particularly from RG, CSpurs, and Jay.

by Arquitecto Fri Jul 09, 2021 1:51 pm

My bigger point beyond the ramble that is above is;

How the fuck has Unique not been unbanned to be with us on this final.

#RepriseUnique

by VivaStPauli Fri Jul 09, 2021 2:27 pm

Arquitecto wrote:My bigger point beyond the ramble that is above is;

How the fuck has Unique not been unbanned to be with us on this final.

#RepriseUnique

Because you dream of the banter, but his first post would just be blaming "the jews, gypsies and the commies" for some weird ref call, and he'd be docked 75%, then he'd call someone a *bleep* and be gone again.

by The Franchise Fri Jul 09, 2021 2:38 pm

I think England will certainly look to take aspects of what Spain have done.

With Olmo as a false 9, he could drop out of reach of the CBs and with Pedri looking to play in the advanced left halfspace, Jorginho is overloaded by 2 while Veratti and Barella are taking care of Koke and Busi. The fullbacks obviously pinned by Mikel and Ferran and again neither Chiellini or Bonnuci are willing to step so far forward, especially as Mikel and Ferran can make inside runs into that space.

Even when Morata came in we saw the same dynamics, that was how the goal came about as he was able to pick the ball up deep, turn and play the easy 1-2 with the winger who had come inside. He found that space because Jorginho was overloaded and neither CB was fully committed to stepping that far forward.

England naturally do the very same movements, we saw it against Denmark. Kane dropping in which immediately triggers Saka and Sterling's inside movement. They got behind 3 Danish CB's left alone 2 Italian ones. So this will be very difficult to overcome.

But that alone doesnt spell doom for Italy. England have been better against sides who dont pressure high and allow them to play the game in their own half. This dynamic England have used is only possible (as it was for Spain) when they control the opponant and can arrive into that half of the field without trouble.

In fact every side have allowed this so far and even Germany only passively used a midblock. I doubt England can effectively pass their way through the thirds in the same way Spain do so I would guess Italy will have more success using their own high pressure and wont be forced to sit into a deeper block as they did against Spain. I guess this is one of the first things i will look for in the game, how easily England are getting the ball into the Italian half and how passive/aggressive Italy are in terms of England's deeper build up.

England themselves are using more high pressure than their opponents, even Germany, but they do so mostly with man vs man marking, especially in the midfield. We saw against Germany, Rice especially, not as confident in this and Italy will be the best opponent England have faced in terms of playing through high pressure. It seems the refs are letting alot of physical play go without a foul called, which doesnt suit Italy's midfield as state but I think Cheisa's movements in these situations can cause problems. Damsgaard got behind Stones and Maguire on 3 different occasions and only Walker's incredible speed bailed them out. Chiesa will not make runs on that side (as he plays on the right not the left) of the field and it could be up to the slower Shaw to recover. If Bonnuci is given any time on the ball, I am quite sure he will play the ball over the top into Cheisa's path.

by Hapless_Hans Fri Jul 09, 2021 3:02 pm

Dear @The Franchise can you take a look at the training video I posted in the Nagelsmann thread and explain things to me?
Would love to understand that one exercise their doing, and AFAIK you're a coach aren't you?

by Arquitecto Fri Jul 09, 2021 3:17 pm

VivaStPauli wrote:
Arquitecto wrote:My bigger point beyond the ramble that is above is;

How the fuck has Unique not been unbanned to be with us on this final.

#RepriseUnique

Because you dream of the banter, but his first post would just be blaming "the jews, gypsies and the commies" for some weird ref call, and he'd be docked 75%, then he'd call someone a *bleep* and be gone again.

Yes but....the banter.... Proud

by Arquitecto Fri Jul 09, 2021 3:24 pm

The Franchise wrote:I think England will certainly look to take aspects of what Spain have done.

With Olmo as a false 9, he could drop out of reach of the CBs and with Pedri looking to play in the advanced left halfspace, Jorginho is overloaded by 2 while Veratti and Barella are taking care of Koke and Busi. The fullbacks obviously pinned by Mikel and Ferran and again neither Chiellini or Bonnuci are willing to step so far forward, especially as Mikel and Ferran can make inside runs into that space.

Even when Morata came in we saw the same dynamics, that was how the goal came about as he was able to pick the ball up deep, turn and play the easy 1-2 with the winger who had come inside. He found that space because Jorginho was overloaded and neither CB was fully committed to stepping that far forward.

England naturally do the very same movements, we saw it against Denmark. Kane dropping in which immediately triggers Saka and Sterling's inside movement. They got behind 3 Danish CB's left alone 2 Italian ones. So this will be very difficult to overcome.

But that alone doesnt spell doom for Italy. England have been better against sides who dont pressure high and allow them to play the game in their own half. This dynamic England have used is only possible (as it was for Spain) when they control the opponant and can arrive into that half of the field without trouble.

In fact every side have allowed this so far and even Germany only passively used a midblock. I doubt England can effectively pass their way through the thirds in the same way Spain do so I would guess Italy will have more success using their own high pressure and wont be forced to sit into a deeper block as they did against Spain. I guess this is one of the first things i will look for in the game, how easily England are getting the ball into the Italian half and how passive/aggressive Italy are in terms of England's deeper build up.

England themselves are using more high pressure than their opponents, even Germany, but they do so mostly with man vs man marking, especially in the midfield. We saw against Germany, Rice especially, not as confident in this and Italy will be the best opponent England have faced in terms of playing through high pressure. It seems the refs are letting alot of physical play go without a foul called, which doesnt suit Italy's midfield as state but I think Cheisa's movements in these situations can cause problems. Damsgaard got behind Stones and Maguire on 3 different occasions and only Walker's incredible speed bailed them out. Chiesa will not make runs on that side (as he plays on the right not the left) of the field and it could be up to the slower Shaw to recover. If Bonnuci is given any time on the ball, I am quite sure he will play the ball over the top into Cheisa's path.

Brilliant analysis.

My post is mostly based on little basis outside of the complementary difference as it does not account what changes can be made in the final and the minute factors that prevented Italy looking better against Spain.

England do not seem to be a side that know how to pass themselves out of trouble as if they take Italy directly on in that I cannot see that going successfully but a direct deep springboard that is distributed to the wings first will hurt them as my biggest worry are the Italian fullbacks ability to deal with Sterling & Sancho/Saka.

Advantage of Italian midfield or their team in general is basically each player is pretty much two-footed bar current fullbacks in the final, Cheillini, Jorginho (he passes well with the left) and thats it. Otherwise Immobile to Barella to Verratti etc all are so its also the unmentioned factor of why their midfield works so well.

What is your prediction Dani and how do you see it panning out

by The Franchise Fri Jul 09, 2021 3:45 pm

Thanks Arq.

Agree about the winger vs fullback dynamics. The problems Doku caused, I can see very similar from Sterling and Saka.

I think my prediction of the game is very clouded, because quite frankly I dont want England to win (though I really like most of the players) due mostly to their conduct in this Denmark game (fans booing the anthem, the fake penalty, Kane and Sterling theatrics, laser pens, justification by fans for the dive) and I have appreciated the way Italy have played from game 1 and therefore i am strongly rooting for Italy to win.

So, in the prediction game I have predicted Italy to win but I think the game really could go either way really easily.

I trust Italy more, I think they have players with a stronger mentality, but I will admit, England are potentially a very bad match up for Italy in particular.

by Superstone Mariomintsch Fri Jul 09, 2021 3:57 pm

VivaStPauli wrote:I was honestly prepared to get on the It's Coming Home Train, and if you guys remember I briefly actually was rooting for England in 2018.

But fuck me, those dives, those fans, the final being in Wembley just because BoJo doesn't care about Covid.

FORZA ITALIA!

It's coming Rome
It's coming Rome
It's coming Rome
FOOTBALL'S COMING ROME

Italians dive too. Immobile, that Donnarumma dive when he couldn't parry the ball properly, and some others to waste time. But yeah, how Sterling fell down before being touched led to their winning goal. And how Kane fell down everytime anyone touched him. That was worse. Added with those other stuffs you said which lead to England's advantage.

FORZA ITALIA!!!

But seriously, this might not be an attractive match as most finals do, but this is a great meeting between the two best teams of the tournament. England's defensive solidity will be tested with Italy's waves of relentless attack, we'll see how their functional midfield cope with Italy's more technical one, could Kane & Sterling raise their game to punish Italy's wall, and how well they would cope with Italy's pressing.

I don't think Mancini would stray from 4-3-3 which brought them success up to this point. And I think he'd still start Immobile as that's his main choice. Immobile, though he couldn't score lately and seems inconfident, he didn't actually miss sitters like Spanish forwards. He led the line well, in fact when he's on the pitch Italy's goals have his involvement. Against Spain it was his run who forced Laporte to make last ditch tackle which fell to Chiesa. Against Belgium, his dive rofl

distracted Vermaelen and his presence made Vermaelen afraid to close down Insigne (though Alderweireld should've close him down). Then Locatelli's first goal and Demiral's own goal, he distracted defenders with his run which was his job. Yeah it would be great for Italy if they have better striker, but he'd make do for now. He'd just be the 1st man to be subbed out Laughing

This is England's best achievement in decades. They have never reached another final since 1966 and they did reach some semifinals. Southgate is at the helm of the two of them (3 if you count Nations League), so he's not bad as many fans said. Yes they did have easier routes on the bracket, but England under Southgate have conquered many of their old demons. Winning penalty shootout and beating a big team in the knockout stage; things they haven't done since I watch them play. Southgate knew what he had to do, though how unattractive it might be and how many people slander him, he has the balls to still stick by his choices and execute it well. He might not be that good tactically, but he delivered so far. About Grealish and Sancho, well you couldn't force to put all your best players in the same 11. We saw what happened with Gerrard and Lampard. And I don't get how people rever Grealish as if he's Ronaldinho. He's done well as an impact sub, but his defensive deficiency might hinder England.

So yeah, hopefully it would be a good game. And if England were to win, please don't let it be from a controversial penalty. If Italy were the one to win that way, then that's Karma Twisted Evil

Nah, hopefully the football will be the main talking point of the final Thumbs up

by Arquitecto Fri Jul 09, 2021 4:04 pm

That is a good point Dani. In the end if emotional investment is involved within a game for rooting for a team and or against predictions generally are skewed and same goes for me here.

@Superstone. I feel the fullbacks will be the biggest difference in the game if not most important.

England would be stupid to directly take a midfield battle with Italy and should work to their weaknesses rather than competing with their strengths but the current fullback line-up of England is better than the broken fullback line-up Italy have.

Florenzi was injured in game 1 v Turkey. Spinazzola v Belgium, i.e the best player of the tournament.

It leaves them with two serviceable fullbacks who dont look too comfortable against pace.

England have the super fast Walker and then a very in-form Shaw.

Tough times ahead for Mancio.

by CBarca Fri Jul 09, 2021 4:11 pm

Jay29 wrote:
Honestly not impressed by England

Fair. England have played results football all tournament. They've been pragmatic rather than try to outplay teams and it's gone surprisingly well. The fact we've got this far makes every Southgate decision look amazing.

There's no reason Italy should feel inferior, even at Wembley.

Italy should look at how the Denmark forwards found space in front of Stones and Maguire and exploit the hell of it. Jorginho and Verratti can control the middle of the park, so you should be able to find Barella and Insigne in those spaces. That's my biggest fear for the game.

On the flip side, if Kane plays as he did vs Denmark, dropping deep and looking for through balls to Sterling or Saka, I think we can trouble Italy's backline. As Spain showed, Bonucci and Chiellini aren't 100% comfortable when there's no traditional 9 to mark and I fancy our wingers to get some joy against Italy's full-backs.

Disagree on Southgate. England were a dive away from penalties against Denmark. England got to face a drained Ukraine in the QF's. England by and large played like crap in the groups and won extremely unconvincingly against Croatia to put them in a good position. The game against Germany is the only standout, but even then the Germans missed two one on ones, including the potential go ahead goal which would have put a wrench in England's gameplan.

Southgates defining feature as a manager is being lucky. He reminds me of present day Mourinho, actually

by Superstone Mariomintsch Fri Jul 09, 2021 4:15 pm

Arquitecto wrote:That is a good point Dani. In the end if emotional investment is involved within a game for rooting for a team and or against predictions generally are skewed and same goes for me here.

@Superstone. I feel the fullbacks will be the biggest difference in the game if not most important.

England would be stupid to directly take a midfield battle with Italy and should work to their weaknesses rather than competing with their strengths but the current fullback line-up of England is better than the broken fullback line-up Italy have.

Florenzi was injured in game 1 v Turkey. Spinazzola v Belgium, i.e the best player of the tournament.

It leaves them with two serviceable fullbacks who dont look too comfortable against pace.

England have the super fast Walker and then a very in-form Shaw.

Tough times ahead for Mancio.

Yes Arq, I agree the fullbacks would be key in the final. Spinazzola's injury affected Italy a whole lot. How he galloped down the left and confused defenses as he can cut in and became Insigne-lite as well, also his incredible engine. Emerson is servicable but indeed he's a weak point for Italy. Di Lorenzo who defended well against Spain was tortured by Doku that forced him to commit a silly push. Vs Turbo Walker and Sharp Shaw. Yeah on paper England really do have advantage here. It won't be easy for Mancio really

by farfan Fri Jul 09, 2021 5:10 pm

duplicate smh

by farfan Fri Jul 09, 2021 5:11 pm

CBarca wrote:
Southgates defining feature as a manager is being lucky. He reminds me of present day Mourinho, actually

What a unique way to spell Guardiola. hmm

Luck had fuck all to do with his Inter and Porto accomplishments.

by Arquitecto Fri Jul 09, 2021 5:30 pm

Agreed I can't see how Mourinho was lucky in his wins.

His Porto win was the last true team whom no one expected to win.

His Inter was the best CL win I've ever seen.

by Superstone Mariomintsch Fri Jul 09, 2021 5:33 pm

farfan wrote:
CBarca wrote:
Southgates defining feature as a manager is being lucky. He reminds me of present day Mourinho, actually

What a unique way to spell Guardiola.

Luck had fuck all to do with his Inter and Porto accomplishments.

Inter and Porto accomplisments was not in present day though hmm

And I don't think Mourinho's lucky these days, he gets sacked all the time Laughing

But I also don't think luck is the only thing pushing you forward if you did well continuously. The lucky guy must have done something right to get to that stage, though he might not be your cup of tea :coffee:

by CBarca Fri Jul 09, 2021 6:01 pm

Yeah, I said present day Mourinho

Mourinho in Porto-Inter-Chelsea (and Madrid, to a slightly lesser extent) was a different beast and certainly was one of the best if not the best in the world at that time.

This thread isn't about Mou anyway and I don't mean to detract from the overall point which is that sometimes it's better to be lucky than good, and Southgate has admittedly done a great job at limiting mistakes in the team and playing 7 defenders on the pitch while still grinding out occasional shots. They're stout defensively and you'll always have a chance to win or go into penalty shootouts in tournaments like this and that has been his strategy and it's worked. England fans won't give a fuck about the football if it wins them the Euros and if they win then Southgate deserves praise.

But personally i think Southgate is the prime example of failing upwards

by Jay29 Fri Jul 09, 2021 6:10 pm

CBarca wrote:
Jay29 wrote:
Honestly not impressed by England

Fair. England have played results football all tournament. They've been pragmatic rather than try to outplay teams and it's gone surprisingly well. The fact we've got this far makes every Southgate decision look amazing.

There's no reason Italy should feel inferior, even at Wembley.

Italy should look at how the Denmark forwards found space in front of Stones and Maguire and exploit the hell of it. Jorginho and Verratti can control the middle of the park, so you should be able to find Barella and Insigne in those spaces. That's my biggest fear for the game.

On the flip side, if Kane plays as he did vs Denmark, dropping deep and looking for through balls to Sterling or Saka, I think we can trouble Italy's backline. As Spain showed, Bonucci and Chiellini aren't 100% comfortable when there's no traditional 9 to mark and I fancy our wingers to get some joy against Italy's full-backs.

Disagree on Southgate. England were a dive away from penalties against Denmark. England got to face a drained Ukraine in the QF's. England by and large played like crap in the groups and won extremely unconvincingly against Croatia to put them in a good position. The game against Germany is the only standout, but even then the Germans missed two one on ones, including the potential go ahead goal which would have put a wrench in England's gameplan.

Southgates defining feature as a manager is being lucky. He reminds me of present day Mourinho, actually

Which is why I said "looks" amazing. His decisions have been vindicated by the outcomes so far in the tournament but are not necessarily responsible for them. Hence I agreed with Robes about England being an unimpressive team and not someone to fear.

Arq wrote:Particularly from RG, CSpurs, and Jay.

There's not much for me to add on the tactical side of the game.

England's approach to the game probably won't change. They'll start plays with Stones and Maguire, build-up with six and likely take their time moving the ball into midfield. Italy can hurt England in that phase because unlike Spain, the danger of the press being picked off isn't as high. We haven't seen Stones really carry the ball in this tournament, and Maguire only does so when he's given the space. They're not going to carry vs a high press. Pickford will see a lot of the ball and his kicking can be erratic, especially under pressure. If they're under pressure, England will look for long-balls to Kane and that's where Bonucci and Chiellini can come into their own. Or they'll rely on Shaw and Walker bringing the ball up instead.

One thing about England is, their attacks are biased to the left hand side. When they build-up, Walker takes up a narrow position next to the centre backs, and Shaw stays deep on the wide left, to help gain access to Sterling. Sterling cutting inside is the trigger for Shaw to overlap, at which point the role of Chiesa becomes important. If the England attack breaks down, that diagonal is on and it's up to Rice and Maguire to stop it rather than Walker. So I'd be concerned about that, as well as the high press.

I guess the other key area is in the middle, because Rice and Phillips step-up to win the ball a lot rather than sit. There's potential for one of them to follow Verratti if he drops deep which would leave a gap. I also think a third-man run from deep will cause problems because of this as well.

by Superstone Mariomintsch Fri Jul 09, 2021 7:11 pm

CBarca wrote:Yeah, I said present day Mourinho

Mourinho in Porto-Inter-Chelsea (and Madrid, to a slightly lesser extent) was a different beast and certainly was one of the best if not the best in the world at that time.

This thread isn't about Mou anyway and I don't mean to detract from the overall point which is that sometimes it's better to be lucky than good, and Southgate has admittedly done a great job at limiting mistakes in the team and playing 7 defenders on the pitch while still grinding out occasional shots. They're stout defensively and you'll always have a chance to win or go into penalty shootouts in tournaments like this and that has been his strategy and it's worked. England fans won't give a fuck about the football if it wins them the Euros and if they win then Southgate deserves praise.

But personally i think Southgate is the prime example of failing upwards

Croatia are good, they drew with Spain in 90 minutes, and 1st matches are usually cagey. Denmark as you said on the other thread, were impressive. They didn't just defend with 7 players against them, they went behind, fought back, equalize and continued to attack, forcing that ugly dive to happen. The only blip was against Scotland, they could've been more attacking. I don't think he's a great coach, simply that he isn't as dumb as most people think and purely relied on luck.

I don't want to argue with you as I'm also not a big fan of him. I just want to know, if you were England coach, what Southgate's mistakes would you rectify and what would you do?

by Robespierre Fri Jul 09, 2021 7:28 pm

Jay29 wrote:
Honestly not impressed by England

Fair. England have played results football all tournament. They've been pragmatic rather than try to outplay teams and it's gone surprisingly well. The fact we've got this far makes every Southgate decision look amazing.

There's no reason Italy should feel inferior, even at Wembley.

Italy should look at how the Denmark forwards found space in front of Stones and Maguire and exploit the hell of it. Jorginho and Verratti can control the middle of the park, so you should be able to find Barella and Insigne in those spaces. That's my biggest fear for the game.

On the flip side, if Kane plays as he did vs Denmark, dropping deep and looking for through balls to Sterling or Saka, I think we can trouble Italy's backline. As Spain showed, Bonucci and Chiellini aren't 100% comfortable when there's no traditional 9 to mark and I fancy our wingers to get some joy against Italy's full-backs.

55 % England, 45 % Italy for me

for me England hasn't " playmakers", you can suffer pressure, so we need to go you to pressure very high
Italy must have courage , especially in a final, where players tend to be more "conservative"
I'm worried more about the individual battles, because it's where England is very strong, and you are really good on athletic view.
You 've outclassed athletically Denmark on extra-time, Denmark players had lost energy while you not, your phisical condition is very good and that's a factor too

by Superstone Mariomintsch Fri Jul 09, 2021 7:40 pm

Robespierre wrote:
Jay29 wrote:
Honestly not impressed by England

Fair. England have played results football all tournament. They've been pragmatic rather than try to outplay teams and it's gone surprisingly well. The fact we've got this far makes every Southgate decision look amazing.

There's no reason Italy should feel inferior, even at Wembley.

Italy should look at how the Denmark forwards found space in front of Stones and Maguire and exploit the hell of it. Jorginho and Verratti can control the middle of the park, so you should be able to find Barella and Insigne in those spaces. That's my biggest fear for the game.

On the flip side, if Kane plays as he did vs Denmark, dropping deep and looking for through balls to Sterling or Saka, I think we can trouble Italy's backline. As Spain showed, Bonucci and Chiellini aren't 100% comfortable when there's no traditional 9 to mark and I fancy our wingers to get some joy against Italy's full-backs.

55 % England, 45 % Italy for me

for me England hasn't " playmakers", you can suffer pressure, so we need to go you to pressure very high
Italy must have courage , especially in a final, where players tend to be more "conservative"
I'm worried more about the individual battles, because it's where England is very strong, and you are really good on athletic view.
You 've outclassed athletically Denmark on extra-time, Denmark players had lost energy while you not, your phisical condition is very good and that's a factor too

I think the traveling plays major factor here. At first I didn't think so, but after seeing how very tired Denmark were compared to England, I believe so. Playing almost all their games in Wembley gave England preparation and stamina advantage compared to other teams who travel, even worse if you travel far to Baku.

I guess it would be better to just let England host the tournament as that would give them home supporter advantage, but wouldn't give them the preparation and stamina advantage. But yeah, it has happened so...

Anyway I think Italy have quite a good chance as England haven't encountered pressure from team such as Italy. And the players must be confident and more mentally prepared after beating those big teams.

by rincon Fri Jul 09, 2021 8:05 pm

Robespierre wrote:
Jay29 wrote:
Honestly not impressed by England

Fair. England have played results football all tournament. They've been pragmatic rather than try to outplay teams and it's gone surprisingly well. The fact we've got this far makes every Southgate decision look amazing.

There's no reason Italy should feel inferior, even at Wembley.

Italy should look at how the Denmark forwards found space in front of Stones and Maguire and exploit the hell of it. Jorginho and Verratti can control the middle of the park, so you should be able to find Barella and Insigne in those spaces. That's my biggest fear for the game.

On the flip side, if Kane plays as he did vs Denmark, dropping deep and looking for through balls to Sterling or Saka, I think we can trouble Italy's backline. As Spain showed, Bonucci and Chiellini aren't 100% comfortable when there's no traditional 9 to mark and I fancy our wingers to get some joy against Italy's full-backs.

55 % England, 45 % Italy for me

for me England hasn't " playmakers", you can suffer pressure, so we need to go you to pressure very high
Italy must have courage , especially in a final, where players tend to be more "conservative"
I'm worried more about the individual battles, because it's where England is very strong, and you are really good on athletic view.
You 've outclassed athletically Denmark on extra-time, Denmark players had lost energy while you not, your phisical condition is very good and that's a factor too

I'm mainly fearing the physical condition. England will be much fitter, the longer the game is open the worse for us, especially extra time. I hope Mancini will use the subs early-ish if necessary to keep the energy up.

That said, Spain were the possible kryptonite with how they can starve our midfielders of the ball, England's midfield will be easier to handle. I expect a game like against Belgium: high quality back and forth with chances on both sides, but with a more uneven midfield battle.

I trust Barella, Jorginho, and Verratti with this one. They can make the difference and control the game. The biggest threat can be England's speed with the fullbacks and wingers. I can imagine dangerous counters and a couple of cards accumulating to stop them.

Berardi looked very good coming on vs Spain. Impossible to bench Chiesa at this point but I would be interested to start with Berardi to ensure more control of the match and creating chances vs a solid defense packed at the back. Then bringing Chiesa later.

70% Italy - 30% England
:coffee:

by M99 Fri Jul 09, 2021 9:39 pm

Antonio Conte wrote:Italy fully deserve to be in the final because they proved themselves more complete a team than any of the opponents they faced, capable of dealing with various different situations, both with and without the ball. They always tried to maintain their own ideas, identity, and style but were also able to adapt to the physical, technical, and tactical qualities of their opponents, finding the best way to get the maximum result.

The way I see it, dominance means creating scoring opportunities and dangerous situations. In that sense, the Spanish ‘domination’ of Italy was not remotely clear. If possession doesn’t use vertical channels to approach the goal or create one-on-one situations on the wings, then it becomes sterile. The xG is more fundamental than possession statistics because you can keep the ball as long as you like, but if you don’t create chances, don’t shoot, and don’t score, you won’t win.

Italy are tough to beat because we are hardly ever unprepared, we don’t leave spaces and always force complicated approaches. We also have that wall formed by Gianluigi Donnarumma, Leonardo Bonucci, and Giorgio Chiellini. I consider Donnarumma to be one of the three best goalkeepers in the world. What can we say of Bonucci and Chiellini? Even after a thousand battles, they still smell blood. Winning mentality, character, strength. In dealing with difficult moments, they are absolutely the top players in their role.

Unlike Spain, who tended to pass it backward, they always try to hit you in one-on-one situations. Many praise Harry Kane for his ability to go get the ball and play with the team, such as with the equalizer against Denmark. Of course, he’s good at that too, but it’s in the box where he’s clinical and as a coach, I would always keep him in there because he’s devastating.

There are two very physical midfielders like Rice and Phillips, who bring balance, but very few vertical passes, often going for the simple option. A weak spot for England is that if their defence is pressed when building out from the back, they aren’t as good as Spain at escaping the press. However, if you are ultra-attacking in your press and they do escape, then watch out for their pace up front. Again, this is when Italy must show their experience at reading the various moments of the game.

We will have fewer fans in the stadium, but more experience than them on the pitch. We know what it means to play finals. We also know how to win them.

by Zagadka Fri Jul 09, 2021 10:20 pm

Forza Azzuri!

I was a die-hard Italy fan since childhood up until end of Euro 2008 where I became neutral internationally.

but those old childhood memories of the most handsome and good-looking team ever assembled coming back and Italians are simply a lot more fun than Brits...so go Italy !!

by McLewis Fri Jul 09, 2021 11:31 pm

I think I'm going to root for players, but not an actual team. Both teams' fanbases are problematic to me for very different reasons, which I won't discuss here.

People hating Sterling makes me like him more so I'm rooting for him. I like Saka a lot so I'm rooting for him too. On the Italian side, Jorginho is definitely one I stan him along with Barella, Insigne and Belotti. Emerson's the closest thing we have to a Roma player on the field so he gets my support as well.

As for as predictions go, I think I'll go with Italy in extra time. I don't see this one going to penalties.

by Robespierre Sat Jul 10, 2021 8:48 am

Zagadka wrote:Forza Azzuri!

I was a die-hard Italy fan since childhood up until end of Euro 2008 where I became neutral internationally.

but those old childhood memories of the most handsome and good-looking team ever assembled coming back and Italians are simply a lot more fun than Brits...so go Italy !!

Wow I didn't know it , curiously it's similar with me, my peak for NT was 1998-2008 , it was at levels comparable with club, after it went to wane and from that moment clear egemony for club ( as it is still ) . But now I want double Scudetto - Euro eheh

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