2020 US presidential election

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Post by Myesyats Thu Apr 23, 2020 4:31 pm

How is this even a close race is beyond me. Trump is unbearable and should have 5% approval rating at best.

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Post by Vibe Thu Apr 23, 2020 6:16 pm

Trump inbred redneck voters don't participate in polls Laughing
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Post by sportsczy Thu Apr 23, 2020 6:33 pm

@Vibe wrote:Trump inbred redneck voters don't participate in polls Laughing

All of Wall Street (or at least 80% of them) are Trump supporters.  All business owners are Trump supporters...  Actually, it's not that they support Trump.  They are afraid of the policies that Pelosi/dems keeps talking about (and they're right; it's half baked).

That's why I keep saying that Biden has to appease these pragmatic voters.  He needs to find a way to not lose his dem votes while getting the center votes (like me). They could care less about the politics... they're looking at the economic impact of policies. Not many of them are humanists like me.
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Post by CBarca Thu Apr 23, 2020 6:36 pm

The "shy Trump voter" theory might hold water, but it's not really as cut and dry as you say it is. Trump didn't, on the whole, fare any better in online polls than he did in telephone polls. Unless people were anonymously scared to say they supported trump, then that doesn't make a whole lot of sense.

The other thing is that here in WI for example, Ron Johnson (the Senator) was also projected to lose. He won. But I don't think people were scared to admit that they wanted Ron Johnson to win. He was a relatively popular Republican in the state before the election and was well known. Didn't have the ludicrous "support Trump at all costs" association either.

Something was fundamentally wrong about Republicans in 2016 that goes beyond just being scared to vote for Trump (EDIT: I'm referring to fundamentally wrong in WI). Polls were great in a lot of places.

It only took a couple of states to be slightly off for the election to be an upset. The national polling ended up being very accurate.
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Post by Vibe Thu Apr 23, 2020 6:49 pm

I would've voted Trump if I was American tbh
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Post by Freeza Thu Apr 23, 2020 6:50 pm

@Vibe wrote:I would've voted Trump if I was American tbh


I still don't understand why Serbians are so fascinated with Trump. The majority absolutely loved him when I was down there.
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Post by Vibe Thu Apr 23, 2020 6:56 pm

Why the fuck would a Norwegian go to Serbia
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Post by Freeza Thu Apr 23, 2020 7:00 pm

@Vibe wrote:Why the fuck would a Norwegian go to Serbia


Educational trip with the journalism school. It was fun considering we wrote a culture magazine about Belgrade. And every citizen in the city basically said Serbia had no culture. Weird experience overall.

Main takeaway is that people hate turbofolk and love cigarettes and rakija.
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Post by McLewis Thu Apr 23, 2020 7:16 pm

Sports and CB are both correct in that the business world (both Wall Street and Main Street) are largely pro-Trump as well as voters who are not vocal supporters of Trump out of a sense of embarrassment. Both of these voters compile a fair amount of his base. The really outspoken ones are generally the minority.

What I'm not sure about is Independents. They went for Trump in larger than projected numbers in 2016, but I'm not so sure that will repeat this time around. That's just my own speculation. I have no data to support it though.

The other thing I've noted is that support for him among older voters is softening and Biden appears to be taking advantage of that. This illustrates that better than I can:

Similarly, Quinnipiac shows seniors approving of Trump’s handling of the coronavirus by a 48/45 margin in early March but disapproving by a 52/45 margin in early April. Quinnipiac also shows Biden’s lead among seniors swelling from 49/46 in March to 54/41 in April, even though the Democrat’s overall lead drops from 11 to eight points.

CNN, on the other hand, shows Trump’s approval rating among seniors for his handling of the coronavirus actually improving a bit between March and April, with Biden enjoying double-digit leads among seniors in both months (57/40 in March, 55/42 in April).

Took this from this article: Trump’s Coronavirus Response May Be Turning Off Older Voters

Trump dominated Clinton with older voters so if this continues, that's a very real problem for him.
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Post by CBarca Thu Apr 23, 2020 8:40 pm



It's one thing for it to be one poll, it's another for it to be multiple.

At the end of the day, I have no clue why anyone would say it's an easy win for Biden or for Trump other than to look back on their post and act smug and talk about how cool they were for predicting it way back when. Quite frankly, none of the data (and common sense) points to making a conclusion like that, which to me, makes me think that you're being foolish regardless of who you think will "easily" win it.

With that being said, my take right now is that it's pointing in a positive direction for Biden, and a negative direction for Trump. Current polling illustrates an easier path for Biden. Win PA and MI and then take any of WI, NC, AZ, FL, and Maine gives Biden the election.

Trump winning PA and MI put Dems in a tough spot, but they still have wiggle room. Would probably need to win FL, and again, current polling shows that's possible.
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Post by Zagadka Thu Apr 23, 2020 10:22 pm

@Freeza wrote:
@Vibe wrote:I would've voted Trump if I was American tbh


I still don't understand why Serbians are so fascinated with Trump. The majority absolutely loved him when I was down there.


Trump is very popular through all Eastern Europe and ex-soviet countries. Even Ukrainians here I've met like Trump a lot.

In a way, Trump has managed to unite Russians, Poland and Ukrainians! lmao...what a guy :bow:

I was Trump for Halloween last year here in Poland, and people were literally queuing up for a photo at the bar. One guy's girlfriend, sat on my lap kissing my mask as her bf took a photo of us. What a cuck !!!
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Post by Myesyats Thu Apr 23, 2020 10:24 pm

@Vibe wrote:Why the fuck would a Norwegian go to Serbia

To get mugged and assaulted xD

BTW I don't get polls either, if some asshole asked me who i'm voting for I'd say "none of your f- business"

It's just probably some assholes in suits in a conference room making up imaginary numbers.
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Post by Myesyats Thu Apr 23, 2020 10:29 pm

@Zagadka wrote:
@Freeza wrote:
@Vibe wrote:I would've voted Trump if I was American tbh


I still don't understand why Serbians are so fascinated with Trump. The majority absolutely loved him when I was down there.


Trump is very popular through all Eastern Europe and ex-soviet countries. Even Ukrainians here I've met like Trump a lot.

In a way, Trump has managed to unite Russians, Poland and Ukrainians! lmao...what a guy :bow:

I was Trump for Halloween last year here in Poland, and people were literally queuing up for a photo at the bar. One guy's girlfriend, sat on my lap kissing my mask as her bf took a photo of us. What a cuck !!!

It's because eastern european people are nationalistic (post-communist traits) so they like Trump's america first attitude. Other than that, our news don't really cover much of what Trump does so people are either misinformed or uninformed.
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Post by Zagadka Thu Apr 23, 2020 10:32 pm

@Vibe wrote:I would've voted Trump if I was American tbh


tbh 4 years ago it was an absolute no-brainer.

My best friend and future room-mate flew from Toronto to New York to be with me for election night and the 2 nights leading up. I was living in Soho, Manhattan and I took him to several local bars and he was surprised how many latinos and blacks supported Trump in DEEP BLUE Manhattan.

we had a big bet going into the election and I saw doubts creeping in him in the 2 nights leading up to the election. He knew he had lost the bet when news came in that Trump is leading in Florida and our mexican bartender did a big fist pump. it was then when First time New York Times predictor swang for Trump. what an unforgettable night...we were interviewed by German TV at Times Square....out til 5am. A true once in a life time experience.
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Post by Zagadka Thu Apr 23, 2020 10:44 pm

@Myesyats wrote:
@Zagadka wrote:
@Freeza wrote:

I still don't understand why Serbians are so fascinated with Trump. The majority absolutely loved him when I was down there.


Trump is very popular through all Eastern Europe and ex-soviet countries. Even Ukrainians here I've met like Trump a lot.

In a way, Trump has managed to unite Russians, Poland and Ukrainians! lmao...what a guy :bow:

I was Trump for Halloween last year here in Poland, and people were literally queuing up for a photo at the bar. One guy's girlfriend, sat on my lap kissing my mask as her bf took a photo of us. What a cuck !!!

It's because eastern european people are nationalistic (post-communist traits) so they like Trump's america first attitude. Other than that, our news don't really cover much of what Trump does so people are either misinformed or uninformed.


I don't think so.

as Sports said, despite what some believe, not everything trump does is evil and terrible. and i totally oppose this black and white attitude as well. It's led to a climate that if Trump nukes half the world, he'll still ahve some hard core fans....and if on the other hand, he cures Covid and Cancer and ends all wars in the world and brings peace and equality, still you'll have some haters. That's not a healthy environment and that's why we are hovering in the extremes.

You're right his nationalist mantra resonates well in ex-soviet countries, but I also think his non-PC talk is popular here, and his taste and appreciation of slavic women...he's got sepi's taste banana
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Post by Hapless_Hans Thu Apr 23, 2020 11:45 pm

no brainer as in noone with a brain would even consider it

well done
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Post by Myesyats Fri Apr 24, 2020 1:58 am

@Zagadka wrote:
You're right his nationalist mantra resonates well in ex-soviet countries, but I also think his non-PC talk is popular here, and his taste and appreciation of slavic women...he's got sepi's taste banana

Tbh people here dont give a shit about American politics. Nobody here reads his tweets and nothing is being said on TV about his terrible response to corona. Most folks don't know anything thats going on in Murica so whether they like or don't like Trump is irrelevant. I also like his anti-PC attitude but the fact that he can't formulate a coherent sentence speaks volumes. It's embarrasing that the president loses his train of thought every time and goes on nonsensical rants.

I don't know if you follow the news but Kidawa said this (not even publicly), "The constitution is more important than human lives", and she lost most of her voters there. It was enough for her to drop from 2nd to last in the polls. Considering the amount of brutally stupid things Trump has uttered and tweeted, he'd get nearly zero votes here. The pussy grabbing tape would have been enough to ensure he doesn't even get to run.  Not to mention other sexist stuff that he said, "windmill noise causes cancer", going on about not actually being a politican, attacking people left and right, name calling, "It's snowing and freezing in NY, we could use some global warming!" etc. etc.

It's unfathomable.
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Post by Freeza Fri Apr 24, 2020 2:36 am

Trump really just said drinking bleach was a possible Covid19 cure.

I 100% believe Biden will win. Trump is trying to kill off his supporters because he wants out of the job.

Can’t feel too bad for anyone dying because of this.
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Post by sportsczy Fri Apr 24, 2020 3:09 am

He didn't say that...  he asked the doctors/scientists if there's a way to make the agents that were found to kill coronavirus, such as UV light and the other disinfectants mentioned by the person before him, safe medically to use.  He didn't suggest that anyone drink bleach ffs.  He probably heard in passing about UV light therapy does exist in dermatology.  It just wouldn't have any application here. Naive question.

I really really really am starting to get as disgusted with CNN etc. as much as I have been with Fox.  Complete stupidity on both sides.

In any case, there was some good info there.  Sunlight, due to UV, kills the virus in a few minutes according the research.  So the likelihood of getting Coronavirus outdoors in sunny weather is far less likely.  Also, C19 also does not fare well in warmer and more humid settings.  Cold and dry is the ideal condition for it.  Finally, regular alcohol and disenfectants kill the virus in 30 seconds.  This is without applying them... just spraying them on.  So if you wipe with the disenfectants, it's likely immediate.

Worth listening to the scientist who spoke.

Bottom line, summer will likely pause the virus and you want to live in warmer climates lol.
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Post by Blue Fri Apr 24, 2020 6:03 am

Both parties are the party of Wall Street without a doubt, Lloyd Blankfein and Jamie Dimon are two of the most influential heads in Wall Street, they both considers themselves democrats. Democrat is as much of the party of wall street as republicans, it is stupid to deny it. They have to be invested in both parties, if not they would face an opposition to their power. If they become partisan, one party would grow to become increasing hostile to their interest. WS are all aways playing with house money, whether it is Biden or Trump it is all the same.


Actually Wall Steet did not want Trump, they wanted Hilary because they saw Trump as a risk and unpredictable.
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Post by Art Morte Fri Apr 24, 2020 1:25 pm

Trump is an ideas guy. He likes to throw ideas in the air without really thinking about them. There isn't anything wrong with that per se. But for any sane human to even entertain the idea of injecting disinfectant into the body is totally incredulous. I struggle to understand how a person's mind even goes there.
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Post by Hapless_Hans Fri Apr 24, 2020 1:27 pm

It's true, even unbelievably dumb and lazy ideas are, in fact, ideas.
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Post by CBarca Fri Apr 24, 2020 1:31 pm

I think Freeza was exaggerating

He said that we should study putting UV light inside of the body and suggested that we should study injecting disinfectant into our body.

It was maybe the most batshit crazy thing he's said since the beginning of his presidency. He's so fucking stupid, it's often difficult to believe just how stupid he is. People portray him as a moron and it's because he actually legitimately is not a smart person. There isn't an individual on earth over the age of 6-8 that would consider injecting disinfectant into their body as something that could cure them of a virus
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Post by BarrileteCosmico Fri Apr 24, 2020 1:51 pm

@sportsczy wrote:That was the same with Clinton 4 years ago... you have this silent significant portion that lean Trump who won't participate in polls.

You can't rely on these things. 2016 showed that very clearly. There are fatal flaws with how these polls work. They're not random enough and they underestimate their error range.

The crazy part is that a majority of the Bernie Sanders supporters that I know will vote for Trump over Biden because a) they can't stand Biden and b) Trump's foreign trade policies are exactly in line with Bernie's. In a strange way, Trump has more in common with Bernie than Biden does.
With Clinton it was national polls, these are polls of swing states.

I also think there's no longer as much "Trump shame". I have several coworkers who told us they didn't vote 3 years ago and now admit they voted for Trump openly.

Anyways I still see it as a toss up. If most people end up blaming China and not Trump then they could give him a pass for the current situation. It's why he keeps calling it the Chinese disease, etc, efforts to derail his personal blame.
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Post by Art Morte Fri Apr 24, 2020 1:58 pm

If the pandemic / economic situation is still bad - like it most likely will be - a couple of months before November, Trump's blame shifting will become monumental. It might be some of his best creative work yet.
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Post by Myesyats Fri Apr 24, 2020 2:04 pm

@CBarca wrote:I think Freeza was exaggerating

He said that we should study putting UV light inside of the body and suggested that we should study injecting disinfectant into our body.

It was maybe the most batshit crazy thing he's said since the beginning of his presidency. He's so fucking stupid, it's often difficult to believe just how stupid he is. People portray him as a moron and it's because he actually legitimately is not a smart person. There isn't an individual on earth over the age of 6-8 that would consider injecting disinfectant into their body as something that could cure them of a virus

He isnt even qualified to comment on that. Leave that shit to the health minister ffs.
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