2020 US presidential election

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Post by futbol_bill Sun Apr 19, 2020 2:29 pm

I think what my Junior was referring to, was how come people outside of the US are so interested in its elections.  I often wonder the same thing. In a way it’s comic relief but on the other hand Trump and his antics causes all kind of problems for the rest of the world.  I feel your statement Sports sums the America public very well

@sportsczy wrote:

How stupid can people be?!



If they end up electing this a**hole again, they get what they deserve, but for the rest of us, it’s bad news.

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Post by urbaNRoots Sun Apr 19, 2020 4:42 pm

I can't speak for others but I care because who wins can affect other countries as well and most likely will affect other countries. For example, the current US government is the first one in 20 years that has directly intervened in Kosovo's government and bullied some influential politicians into breaking the current government which has been constitutionally voted by the people (in the middle of a pandemic, mind). These kind of actions can lead to civil war because they didn't vote for the people who Richard Grenell backs. I can't believe I have to hear this idiot again as a special missionary for the Kosovo-Serbia dialogue after all that nonsense as an ambassador in Germany.

These dumb fucks affect the whole world with their incompetence, so I'm hoping the Americans make it right this time, although it might be too late already for some countries as this government has already done so much damage.
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Post by FennecFox7 Sun Apr 19, 2020 4:58 pm

The American public love faux machismo and dominance. In other words, they love abusive assholes.

There’s a lot of fundamentally fucked up people in this country due to previous family issues, Hollywood, herd mentality etc .. it’s all rooted in deeper underlying issues.
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Post by sportsczy Sun Apr 19, 2020 5:34 pm

The US isn't one country really... it's 50 different countries.  The urban centers HATE Trump and he gets no votes there.  The dumbass rural people love him because they've felt marginalized in the recent economic boom (and they were, unfortunately).

The way the Republicans remapped the electoral college over the past two decades...  the majority of the population in the US doesn't elect the president.  It's rigged so a slight minority, one that's friendly with Republican ideals, can win regardless of the popular vote.

It's called gerrymandering.  Here's what it means: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gerrymandering
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Post by futbol_bill Sun Apr 19, 2020 5:47 pm

@urbaNRoots wrote:I can't speak for others but I care because who wins can affect other countries as well and most likely will affect other countries. For example, the current US government is the first one in 20 years that has directly intervened in Kosovo's government and bullied some influential politicians into breaking the current government which has been constitutionally voted by the people (in the middle of a pandemic, mind). These kind of actions can lead to civil war because they didn't vote for the people who Richard Grenell backs. I can't believe I have to hear this idiot again as a special missionary for the Kosovo-Serbia dialogue after all that nonsense as an ambassador in Germany.

These dumb fucks affect the whole world with their incompetence, so I'm hoping the Americans make it right this time, although it might be too late already for some countries as this government has already done so much damage.


I think the days being the so called saviors or police for countries of abuse are over regardless who is the president. As someone posted here a while ago, their view of what is wrong or what is democracy or what is the correct system is highly debatable. Plus they have probably messed things up to be much worse than when they stepped in. It’s high time the UN stepped up to the task.
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Post by El Gunner Sun Apr 19, 2020 6:59 pm

@urbaNRoots wrote:I can't speak for others but I care because who wins can affect other countries as well and most likely will affect other countries. For example, the current US government is the first one in 20 years that has directly intervened in Kosovo's government and bullied some influential politicians into breaking the current government which has been constitutionally voted by the people (in the middle of a pandemic, mind). These kind of actions can lead to civil war because they didn't vote for the people who Richard Grenell backs. I can't believe I have to hear this idiot again as a special missionary for the Kosovo-Serbia dialogue after all that nonsense as an ambassador in Germany.

These dumb fucks affect the whole world with their incompetence, so I'm hoping the Americans make it right this time, although it might be too late already for some countries as this government has already done so much damage.


and how would they "make it right" my friend?
problems existed before Trump and they'll continue to exist

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Post by sportsczy Mon Apr 20, 2020 4:50 am

UN doesn't exist without the US.  We fund 2/3 of the annual budget.

Other than humanitarian aid, UN is useless and always will be as long the top nations can veto anything they want.  It's a place for voluntary discourse.... which is better than no discourse.  But you need to understand the limits of the institution.

The world has asked to be left to its own devices... and Trump has basically let that happen to a large extent.  The big caveat is that the US will remove its financial support of course too.

You can't have your cake and eat it.  Autonomy means exactly that.
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Post by futbol_bill Mon Apr 20, 2020 6:30 pm

So that just further emphases the point I was making to futbol’s question. The dumbshits in America are going to reelect the a**hole and while they get what they deserve, it has consequences to rest of world.

With Trump’s naively and bullshit, I see Russia and China willing to step into world leadership for their own selfishness, I see the EU and UK stepping up as they are clearly fed up and pissed at Trump’s bullshit. That will work in some regards, but those people in authorization countries won’t have anyone coming to their rescue.

The main thing i foresee is with Trump, the USA will no longer be the global leader that they have been for decades. And when he is gone, it will takes years to undo the damage he has done.
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Post by McLewis Mon Apr 20, 2020 6:53 pm

Frankly, I already don't consider us the global leader as it stands today. We abdicated that role in Trump's first year effectively.
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Post by BarrileteCosmico Mon Apr 20, 2020 9:36 pm

It's already happening. Look at what Trump did with the WHO, and now he cries wolf once the consequences of his neglect come back to haunt him

https://www.vice.com/en_us/article/z3ba5j/trump-is-scapegoating-the-who-but-failed-to-confirm-a-us-representative-for-3-years
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Post by futbol_bill Mon Apr 20, 2020 11:55 pm

Same thing is true with his abandoning the Paris accord and the Iran deal. He is a complete asshole.

And yet, it seems at least according to US residents on this forum, he will be reelected! What a bunch of morons.

Some seem to think he has done some good things, but I would argue he hasn’t really done anything and most of what he claims is either outright lies or severe exaggerations.

He can claim the tax break, but in reality it was another tax break for the rich and businesses.

He can claim he got rid of obamacare, i would say he killed what ever health care there was.

He will claim his tariffs etc created new trade deals. Reality is the deals with Mexico, Canada and with China are basically minor changes to what existed before. Biggest change was name change.

He tries to claim the economy (what it was before the pandemic) is his success, but the reality is the upswing path was put in place by Obama after the banking mortgage crisis that the republicans created. I don’t see any notable action that Trump did that accelerated that upswing path.

Have I missed anything?


,
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Post by CBarca Thu Apr 23, 2020 3:45 am

US residents are not actually claiming he'll be reelected. Before coronavirus I think most of us had a nuanced view that it was probably a toss up. Trump is pretty heavily disliked but people will bite their lip if the economy is going well. The only actual US resident I can remember saying that is Sports, and I'm really not sure what he's on about with that one.

What you probably read were the overreacting (and understandably upset) responses to Biden essentially winning the nomination.

However, the economy is not going well, and neither is the health of the country.

I think it would be difficult to sell Trump as the favorite right now. Biden is killing it with older citizens (AKA the ones that vote). Just today, 3 polls out that have Biden ahead of Trump by 8 points in Pennsylvania and Michigan, and he's up 4 points in Florida. About a month ago, polling in WI had Biden ahead by 3 or 4 points (and that polling was taken during his rally around the flag effect).

Meanwhile, Trump's rally around the flag effect has pretty much disappeared. The fastest disappearance of the effect since we began recording President approval consistently.

It's too early to say anything. We have a lot of time to go before November elections (and a lot of fighting about how exactly those will go down), but early signs for Trump are not good.

Even in Wisconsin, in our most recent elections, which the Republicans tried their best to rig by forcing people out into the open during a pandemic, we elected a liberal WI Supreme Court judge. Milwaukee, which is a Democratic stronghold in the state, had 180 polling stations cut down to 5 and people STILL turned up, and may districts were much higher in their % share of votes for Democrats than usual. There is a lot of evidence both in the nation at large and in my home state that people, especially older individuals, are NOT happy about the way coronavirus has been handled.

I think that's starting to show in the polling data. Will that stick? We'll see.
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Post by sportsczy Thu Apr 23, 2020 4:45 am

Trump has done good things whether you like him personally or not... or whether you think he's done more bad than good (like me) or not.

Iran and Paris deals were both abortions.  The French think the Paris accord was an abortion after they saw their oil prices go through the roof (spark that started the Gillet Jaune movement)...

Good intentions don't make good policy.  At least with the Paris Accord, the intentions were extremely good.  The issue was that none of the other environmental deals were followed by China...  and neither would that one.  He couldn't articulate it (he barely speaks English lol), but when they refused to put strict compliance audits in the Paris Accord, the deal was dead in terms of the US participating.

I don't dislike Trump's economic policies.  They've mostly been good.  I hate his politics and his humanity... that supersedes his economic wins.
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Post by sportsczy Thu Apr 23, 2020 4:46 am

Only reason the economy isn't doing well is the Pandemic... and that's a world issue. Otherwise, the US economy was doing extremely well pre-pandemic.
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Post by sportsczy Thu Apr 23, 2020 4:53 am

@cbarca... very unlikely Biden beats Trump. Extremely unlikely. Similar to 2016 when there was a silent group that wouldn't participate in polls that voted for him (they just didn't want to admit it). Clinton was up 5-8 points in pre-election polls and then lost.

I see a similar thing happening. You have 45% that are going to vote for Trump no matter what and 45% that will vote against him no matter what. There's that 10% of undecided votes (and where they are) that swing the result.

I just don't see Biden inspiring anyone to vote for him unless he picks a great VP.

I'll vote for Biden just based on humanity. But I don't see him winning. Doesn't matter in NY anyhow.
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Post by Hapless_Hans Thu Apr 23, 2020 8:48 am

Biden is going to win this easily.
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Post by Myesyats Thu Apr 23, 2020 10:40 am

Uhh, thats a very bold claim. I reckon we should add a poll to this thread and allow GL to reveal its preference.

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Post by Pedram Thu Apr 23, 2020 11:40 am

@Hapless_Hans wrote:Biden is going to win this easily.


Too early to make bold predictions like this 6 months before the election day, lots of variables in play, anything can happen imo.

But based on early forecasts I'd say Biden has an easier route to the office than Trump. WI, NC, AZ, FL could swing this election either ways and Biden looks strong in three of them.
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Post by Hapless_Hans Thu Apr 23, 2020 1:29 pm

The Corona response has been a total shitshow (of course), and this time there's no coming back from this for Trump with the undecided.
Unemployment will be massive. People will go broke. There will be a recession.
He got away with all his shit before, but this is another level.
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Post by sportsczy Thu Apr 23, 2020 3:46 pm

Don't look at CNN or Fox for how the corona response has been... two extremes.  To me who lives in NYC where it's terrible, it hasn't been that bad.  They built up all the capacity so nobody will go without.  In fact, we released the hospital boat from the military because we won't need it.  They're likely going to re-convert the Javitz center back to a convention center very soon too.  Plenty of ventilators, ICU beds, beds and masks.  

Testing is going to be caught up this week too both in terms of positive/negative and antibodies.

The problem is unemployment administration... and that's a state-by-state issue, not a federal one.

The SBA loan issue is also a bank problem...  they're acting like, well, banks.  

I don't see how they could do anything different.
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Post by McLewis Thu Apr 23, 2020 3:52 pm

@sportsczy wrote:Only reason the economy isn't doing well is the Pandemic... and that's a world issue. Otherwise, the US economy was doing extremely well pre-pandemic.


Do you believe Independents and Republicans will see it this way in November after they've seen this virus ravage the US economy for 6 months?

Personally, I believe Independents won't be so easily swayed, but rank and file Republicans will be. Trump has already signaled that he's pivoting the blame for the collapse of our economy to 2 principal culprits:

- China for not containing the virus.

- Democratic Governors for their persistence on keeping their states under Stay-at-Home orders, which have brought the economy to a halt.

Trump and his allies continue to push the narrative that the SAH/SIP orders are being extended not to help flatten the curve, but to keep the economy shutdown long enough to beat Trump in November. That's the more nuanced reason driving these statewide protests. Republican governors (like DeWine in Ohio and Hogan in Maryland) have largely been spared such ire from Trump supporters however, despite enacting similar orders.

This is why it's going to come down to turnout from Democrats in November. Trump and the GOP will do their best to blunt that and force people to choose between their lives and their right to vote, knowing many Democrats will likely choose the former, which would guarantee him a 2nd term.
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Post by McLewis Thu Apr 23, 2020 3:54 pm

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Post by sportsczy Thu Apr 23, 2020 3:59 pm

That was the same with Clinton 4 years ago... you have this silent significant portion that lean Trump who won't participate in polls.

You can't rely on these things. 2016 showed that very clearly. There are fatal flaws with how these polls work. They're not random enough and they underestimate their error range.

The crazy part is that a majority of the Bernie Sanders supporters that I know will vote for Trump over Biden because a) they can't stand Biden and b) Trump's foreign trade policies are exactly in line with Bernie's. In a strange way, Trump has more in common with Bernie than Biden does.
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Post by sportsczy Thu Apr 23, 2020 4:01 pm

If Biden is smart, he takes an anti-China/protect US workers economic stance.  It's very very important and pragmatic in the current environment.  He can always move off of it later. It's suicide for him to stick to his track record on trade...
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Post by sportsczy Thu Apr 23, 2020 4:05 pm

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/trump-approval-ratings/

This is the poll I follow. His approval/disapproval rating. My estimate is that Trump's approval rating needs to sit around or below 41% and disapproval at 54% or more for Biden to stand a chance. Right now, the needle hasn't moved at all since the Pandemic start and Trump was going to win easily before that.
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Post by Myesyats Thu Apr 23, 2020 4:31 pm

How is this even a close race is beyond me. Trump is unbearable and should have 5% approval rating at best.

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