Turkey and Erdogan Watch

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Post by Cruijf Fri Jul 15, 2016 11:03 pm

No matter how bad Erdogan is a coup is worse. Very bad news for this to happen to a NATO country. The world is falling apart it seems.

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Post by Robespierre Fri Jul 15, 2016 11:12 pm

Anyway the story of Turkey's coups ( basically a country used to it . Atatürk 'd support the militaries now, their foster father ) is different than Egypt for example.

on average, the military hold the power temporarily, then they make the new constitution and at the end they announce election. On paper it shouldn't be worse than Erdogan, the destroyer of civil rights

I fear just a thing : the civil war.
The real risk is this.
And at this moment we can't exclude it.
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Post by Hapless_Hans Fri Jul 15, 2016 11:14 pm

Turkey is member of NATO since the 50s and I think there's been a few coups since then.

In principle you're right. Obviously a military coup against an elected president is a complete breakdown of democracy. Turkey is tricky though. Some things are the other way round than in other countries.
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Post by InterMalia Fri Jul 15, 2016 11:14 pm

How can you guys who support democracy think this is in any way good? How the f is overthrowing a democratically elected government good? Only way for democracy to rule is to let a governments rule end by the ballots not by the barrel of a gun. This is a horrific news that's not uncommon in the mid-east. Anytime there's a democratically elected governments becomes a far right(in this case islamic party) it gets overthrown. I don't accept that as justice and only thing that works in a democracy is justice. W Bush was a bad president would you guys have supported him getting overthrown?
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Post by Hapless_Hans Fri Jul 15, 2016 11:16 pm

True Robes. Civil war would be so absolutely terrible.

And Erdogan has many, many supporters, in rural Turkey etc.

There is already a civil war going on with the Kurds, of course.
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Post by McAgger Fri Jul 15, 2016 11:18 pm

Coup is not worse.

This is not something unique in Turkey's history. The Turkish Military has done this before whenever a gov't regime goes against the secular focus of the country's founding. In turkey , unlike other countries, the military doesn't answer to the gov't. The police answers to the gov't and they've been ordered to stop and arrest the military. So this is what's going on, police and military are apparently clashing.
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Post by zigra Fri Jul 15, 2016 11:19 pm

@InterMalia wrote:How can you guys who support democracy think this is in any way good? How the f is overthrowing a democratically elected government good? Only way for democracy to rule is to let a governments rule end by the ballots not by the barrel of a gun. This is a horrific news that's not uncommon in the mid-east. Anytime there's a democratically elected governments becomes a far right(in this case islamic party) it gets overthrown. I don't accept that as justice and only thing that works in a democracy is justice. W Bush was a bad president would you guys have supported him getting overthrown?


Democracy is about more than just having a majority. Erdogan has been working on ending the democracy and most important for me he's been waging a war against a part of Turkeys own population - the kurds. Democracy can never legitimize you to slaughter your own minorities. Never.

Problem is - will it change for better? Or more of the same/worse?
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Post by McAgger Fri Jul 15, 2016 11:21 pm

@zigra wrote:
@InterMalia wrote:How can you guys who support democracy think this is in any way good? How the f is overthrowing a democratically elected government good? Only way for democracy to rule is to let a governments rule end by the ballots not by the barrel of a gun. This is a horrific news that's not uncommon in the mid-east. Anytime there's a democratically elected governments becomes a far right(in this case islamic party) it gets overthrown. I don't accept that as justice and only thing that works in a democracy is justice. W Bush was a bad president would you guys have supported him getting overthrown?


Democracy is about more than just having a majority. Erdogan has been working on ending the democracy and most important for me he's been waging a war against a part of Turkeys own population - the kurds. Democracy can never legitimize you to slaughter your own minorities. Never.

Problem is - will it change for better? Or more of the same/worse?


The reasoning that the military is giving behind this coup is exactly that. To protect the democracy from this ultra Islamic-gov't which has been pushing for religious laws as of late.
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Post by Hapless_Hans Fri Jul 15, 2016 11:21 pm

Seems like the coup is failing. This will be ugly.
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Post by Cruijf Fri Jul 15, 2016 11:23 pm

@zigra wrote:
Problem is - will it change for better? Or more of the same/worse?


The problem is these aren't even secularists. They're more extreme Islamists. Not good at all.
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Post by Hapless_Hans Fri Jul 15, 2016 11:27 pm

Who are more extreme Islamists? The parts of the military doing the coup?
Where do you get that from?
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Post by zigra Fri Jul 15, 2016 11:29 pm

I won't comment on the motive of the people behind the coup right now. I don't even know who they are exactly.

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Post by McAgger Fri Jul 15, 2016 11:30 pm

@Cruijf wrote:
@zigra wrote:
Problem is - will it change for better? Or more of the same/worse?


The problem is these aren't even secularists. They're more extreme Islamists. Not good at all.


Elaborate because you're totally wrong if you think the military are extreme islamists.
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Post by Pedram Fri Jul 15, 2016 11:31 pm

@Cruijf wrote:
@zigra wrote:
Problem is - will it change for better? Or more of the same/worse?


The problem is these aren't even secularists. They're more extreme Islamists. Not good at all.

The Turkish military has always been pro Kemal Ataturk, they're mostly secular.
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Post by McAgger Fri Jul 15, 2016 11:31 pm

@zigra wrote:I won't comment on the motive of the people behind the coup right now. I don't even know who they are exactly.



They already stated their motive. This is not some hardcore puzzle. Read my post in this page.
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Post by McAgger Fri Jul 15, 2016 11:38 pm

Also here you can read this article that explains the situation pretty well. the article was written about 4-5 months ago discussing this exact possibility of a coup.

http://europe.newsweek.com/will-there-be-coup-against-erdogan-turkey-439181
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Post by Pedram Fri Jul 15, 2016 11:38 pm

Apparently Fethullah Gülen, the Islamist guy who lives in Pennsylvania is condemning the coup, one more reason to believe that the military is acting on its own independently.
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Post by zigra Fri Jul 15, 2016 11:41 pm

Don't call me James wrote:
@zigra wrote:I won't comment on the motive of the people behind the coup right now. I don't even know who they are exactly.



They already stated their motive. This is not some hardcore puzzle. Read my post in this page.


I read it, I just don't know if there's any confirmation?
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Post by Hapless_Hans Fri Jul 15, 2016 11:44 pm

Apparently Erdogan and his cabinet members are accusing army elements close to the Gülen movement to be behind the coup, which is a moderate Muslim movement which has been targeted by Erdogan in recent months.

Also statements from political parties, including opposition parties, denouncing the coup.
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Post by Cruijf Fri Jul 15, 2016 11:51 pm

http://qz.com/733802/a-reclusive-religious-scholar-in-pennsylvania-may-be-behind-the-attempted-coup-in-turkey/

Basically Erdogan accused Fethullah of being behind this. Didn't realize he had denied it, my friend just told me it was Fethullah as if it was a fact. Fethullah is a more conservative Islamic cleric that used to be politically aligned with Erdogan but broke off and led the moves against him in 2014.

This is actually very interesting then, albeit terrifying. Turkey is probably going to shit regardless of what happens.
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Post by RealGunner Fri Jul 15, 2016 11:54 pm

Seems like the coup is failing. The number is quite small.

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Post by Hapless_Hans Fri Jul 15, 2016 11:57 pm

Just because Erdogan is blaming this on Gülen really should not lead us to take this anywhere near face value.

Erdogan has been cracking down on Gülen's supporters lately.
The guy is quite simply power mad.

Usually, the Turkish military is secularist on principle, see themselves as the protectors of Atatürk's heritage, which is a secular, explicitly anti-islamist republic.

That's why I guess it would be surprising if the Army in this case had a religious agenda.
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Post by Pedram Sat Jul 16, 2016 12:00 am

This coup has nothing to do with Gülen, the military is just tired of Erdogan's Islamist policies.
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Post by Robespierre Sat Jul 16, 2016 12:04 am

@Hapless_Hans wrote:Turkey is member of NATO since the 50s and I think there's been a few coups since then.

In principle you're right. Obviously a military coup against an elected president is a complete breakdown of democracy. Turkey is tricky though. Some things are the other way round than in other countries.


4 in last 50 years are a relevant " score " for a country inside NATO. In Turkey the real democratic turn always missed, and regardless of Erdogan .. Erdogan has just accelerated the authoritarian turn. In these years Erdogan has made everything to purge the armed forces , that in Turkey, are  the main guarantor of the laic  constitution of Atatürk. If we don't get this passage it's even more difficult to understand the Turkish situation .  and therefore, on paper, now they should having intervened to restore that stability (always bearing in mind the particular Turkish reason of state... it's surely immoral for us Europeans, but basically.. they 've never stoped to be a "military dictatorship" ) that Erdogan was breaking down towards his aim to transform the Turkey from laic country to Islamist country, with all the consequences such as deprivation of rights etc...

My real concern relates to the fact that the situation is much more similar to a civil war than a successful coup .....
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Post by Hapless_Hans Sat Jul 16, 2016 12:15 am

Interesting, Robes. Especially since it's probably safe to say there are conflicting factions in the military these days, surely Erdogan has substantial support in the military as well (and as you say, he-s been working hard the last decade to strengthen his supporters in the military). If not he#d not survived as long as president, with all the shit he's pulled.
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Post by Adit Sat Jul 16, 2016 12:17 am

As if the world doesn't have enough 'Islamic' problems. Laughing
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