UEFA Coefficient development for the next seasons

England got a pretty bad draw with Paris and Dortmund. So it's unlikely they will make up the entire 4 point difference. This makes next season do or die for the 4th spot.

BarrileteCosmico wrote:England got a pretty bad draw with Paris and Dortmund. So it's unlikely they will make up the entire 4 point difference. This makes next season do or die for the 4th spot.

Not sure what 4 point difference you're refering to?

England are by now clearly leading Italy again, even after 11/12 expires next season

http://kassiesa.home.xs4all.nl/bert/uefa/data/method4/crank2017.html

Italy blew it big time this season.
Only 11.5 points, that's worse than any of Spain, Germany, Englands season since many years.

With Conte at Chelsea, Moyes at Arsenal, Mourinho at United, Pep at City and Klopp at Liverpool PL will be back with 4 teams in the QF once again like god intended

Moyes

RealGunner wrote:With Conte at Chelsea, Moyes at Arsenal, Mourinho at United, Pep at City and Klopp at Liverpool PL will be back with 4 teams in the QF once again like god intended

RealGunner wrote:With Conte at Chelsea, Moyes at Arsenal, Mourinho at United, Pep at City and Klopp at Liverpool PL will be back with 4 teams in the QF once again like god intended

Indeed, the League Cup would be incredibly contested next season, cannot wait.

shame arsenal get to keep their 4th place trophy, when is the glorious day I see this club drown

Huh. Looks like you're right Hans. Even so 0.5 is a very small gap so it will still be a do or die campaign.

City and Liverpool keeping England in the game .

Remember earlier this season when people thought Serie A would take the 4th spot ?

Based on how things were going it was a very real possibility, if not this season then the next, but leave it to Serie A to screw themselves out of it

I'm positively surprised by Wolfsburg's point haul this season! Pity they didn't manage to get their away goal yesterday ^^

Italy

You and Adit can laugh all you want now but both of you will look like foolish bums once the format change kicks in Coefficient talk is redundant now.

In the meantime, i might as well join you guys and laugh along with you for now

Italy

No wonder people mock serie A just to wind up the fans. Their entitled mentality and belief that they are still some kind of top league is outrageous. After a decade of cycle excuses it is pretty evident that cycle is not coming anytime soon. Next French league .

Are you actually as uninformed as you appear to be? The burro league was in danger of losing its 4th team in the CL to Serie A.

From ESPN:

"The Premier League was in danger of losing one of its places to Serie A at the end of this season, particularly after Sassuolo qualified for this season's Europa League group stage while West Ham were eliminated, but both leagues will now get four Champions League spots."

http://www.espnfc.com/uefa-champions-league/story/2937658/uefa-agrees-to-extra-champions-league-spots-for-top-leagues

If you look at the coefficients.... they're a total of the previous 5 years.  So you need to look at how the leagues are going to replace or beat the point totals of the years that are going to drop off in the next 2 seasons.  Here are the point total that are dropping off for Serie A and EPL

http://fr.uefa.com/memberassociations/uefarankings/country/

EPL - 15.3 and 16.4
Serie A - 11.4 and 14.4

Here's the point totals from last season and the average for the middle 3 seasons of the last 5 (drop high and low years to remove outliers).

EPL - 14.2 ly and 15.3 avg
Serie A - 11.5 and 13.4

In the next 2 years based on this data:

EPL will likely lose 0-3 UEFA coefficient points...  so their point total should be in the 73-76 range

Serie A will likely lose 0-3 UEFA coefficient points...  so their point total should be in the 67-70 range.

Serie A was never going to catch EPL realistically or even if you weren't that realistic.  You would need to combine really poor seasons from the EPL and outstanding ones from Serie A in Europe over the next 2 years for things to get close.  The media that is writing these stories about Serie A catching EPL in the coefficients are just lazy and don't do any research.

Here you can see the coefficient development better:

http://kassiesa.home.xs4all.nl/bert/uefa/data/method4/crank2017.html

sportsczy wrote:If you look at the coefficients.... they're a total of the previous 5 years.  So you need to look at how the leagues are going to replace or beat the point totals of the years that are going to drop off in the next 2 seasons.  Here are the point total that are dropping off for Serie A and EPL

http://fr.uefa.com/memberassociations/uefarankings/country/

EPL - 16.4 and 16.8
Serie A - 14.4 and 14.2

Here's the point totals from last season and the average for the middle 3 seasons of the last 5 (drop high and low years to remove outliers).

EPL - 14.2 ly and 15.3 avg
Serie A - 11.5 and 13.4

In the next 2 years based on this data:

EPL will likely lose 2-4 UEFA coefficient points...  so their point total should be in the 72-74 range

Serie A will likely lose 1-4 UEFA coefficient points...  so their point total should be in the 66-69 range.

Serie A was never going to catch EPL realistically or even if you weren't that realistic.  You would need to combine really poor seasons from the EPL and outstanding ones from Serie A in Europe over the next 2 years for things to get close.  The media that is writing these stories about Serie A catching EPL in the coefficients are just lazy and don't do any research.

Quite a lot nonsense, but it is mostly bullshit. The EPL will lose 2 points per year in the next 2 years even if no games are played. Italy is shedding 2 years in which England had a 2 point advantage in each year. If Italy matches or outscores England this year, Italy will overtake England. You just don't understand how it works. ESPN, apparently does.

Breva... figure out how it works and then take some math lessons.  Also work on reading comprehension.

I'm taking after the nest 2 seasons.  EPL has to equal or better the point totals of the 2 seasons that fall out of range to maintain the point total coming into this season and so will serie A.  For EPL, that's 15.3 and 16.4 (i looked one year too far forward in my last post)... and it's 11.4 and 14.4 for Serie A.  EPL had a 6 point advantage coming in.

Just looking at last year...  EPL got 14.2 points and Serie A 11.5.  If they duplicate that for the next 2 seasons, EPL will lose 3 points while Serie will also lose 3 points compared to the years coming off.  So the gap will still be 6 points.

6 points is a massive number unless outlier bad seasons are falling out of the range as you go forward... and you replace those with either your average season or a good one.  That's not the case for either of these leagues.

In essence, Serie A would need to equal EPL's point output for the next two seasons to catch up.  That's more than a long shot to me because I don't see any club from Serie A other than Juve really compete to play late in either European competitions.  On the other hand, EPL has City, Man U, Chelsea, etc.  They have more teams that will get them points.

Surprises can happen and EPL teams can crash out while Serie A teams can surprise. HOWEVER, it would take multiple instances of this... not just one or two. So it's highly, highly unlikely.

so has this been scraped now.

sportsczy wrote:Breva... figure out how it works and then take some math lessons.  Also work on reading comprehension.

I'm taking after the nest 2 seasons.  EPL has to equal or better the point totals of the 2 seasons that fall out of range to maintain the point total coming into this season and so will serie A.  For EPL, that's 15.3 and 16.4 (i looked one year too far forward in my last post)... and it's 11.4 and 14.4 for Serie A.  EPL had a 6 point advantage coming in.

Just looking at last year...  EPL got 14.2 points and Serie A 11.5.  If they duplicate that for the next 2 seasons, EPL will lose 3 points while Serie will also lose 3 points compared to the years coming off.  So the gap will still be 6 points.

6 points is a massive number unless outlier bad seasons are falling out of the range as you go forward... and you replace those with either your average season or a good one.  That's not the case for either of these leagues.

In essence, Serie A would need to equal EPL's point output for the next two seasons to catch up.  That's more than a long shot to me because I don't see any club from Serie A other than Juve really compete to play late in either European competitions.  On the other hand, EPL has City, Man U, Chelsea, etc.  They have more teams that will get them points.

Surprises can happen and EPL teams can crash out while Serie A teams can surprise.  HOWEVER, it would take multiple instances of this... not just one or two.  So it's highly, highly unlikely.

You are assuming that somehow, the Serie A teams will replicate the terrible points showing they had last year and the English teams will maintain the advantage they had last year.  It only takes a year like 2 years ago, where Serie A garnered 4 points more than the EPL to drop the EPL 4 points down relative to Serie A this year. Do you think ESPN are a bunch of morons and don't think these things through?