How much would Lamela have gone for if Roma kept him for another 2 years?

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How much would Lamela have gone for if Roma kept him for another 2 years?

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How much would Lamela have gone for if Roma kept him for another 2 years? Vote_lcap5%How much would Lamela have gone for if Roma kept him for another 2 years? Vote_rcap 5% 
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How much would Lamela have gone for if Roma kept him for another 2 years? Vote_lcap5%How much would Lamela have gone for if Roma kept him for another 2 years? Vote_rcap 5% 
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How much would Lamela have gone for if Roma kept him for another 2 years? Vote_lcap5%How much would Lamela have gone for if Roma kept him for another 2 years? Vote_rcap 5% 
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How much would Lamela have gone for if Roma kept him for another 2 years? Empty How much would Lamela have gone for if Roma kept him for another 2 years?

Post by BarrileteCosmico Fri Aug 23, 2013 4:15 pm

Di Marzio claiming the price is 30m euros + 2 in bonuses, without agent fees. He was brought from River Plate at 17m. I think Roma really jumped the gun on this one, they just sold Argentina's most promising talent since Aguero for a measly fee in this transfer market. Had they matched tottenham's offered wages and kept him I'm sure they could have sold him for much more, especially when players like Bale are going for 100m.
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How much would Lamela have gone for if Roma kept him for another 2 years? Empty Re: How much would Lamela have gone for if Roma kept him for another 2 years?

Post by Red Alert Fri Aug 23, 2013 4:18 pm

Depends on the market.

In this current market, probably around 50-60m.

Markets just going to get inflated now with "above average" players going for close to 100m...
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How much would Lamela have gone for if Roma kept him for another 2 years? Empty Re: How much would Lamela have gone for if Roma kept him for another 2 years?

Post by S Fri Aug 23, 2013 4:21 pm

I always felt that he'll be a Monaco player eventually in a season or two.

With the way he's progressing ,he wouldnt have gone for anything less than 50m.
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How much would Lamela have gone for if Roma kept him for another 2 years? Empty Re: How much would Lamela have gone for if Roma kept him for another 2 years?

Post by BarrileteCosmico Fri Aug 23, 2013 4:32 pm

Agreed Surag. I think 50m is a good price estimate. And considering that the market is still inflating ridiculously I could even see it go above that. The thing that surprises me is that even if Lamela stops progressing altogether and stays as he is now for the next 2 years, which is of course incredibly unlikely, I really doubt they wouldn't on the very least break even on his purchase. So I see a lot of upside and not that much downside.

Really puzzling business decision by Roma's management. The only explanation I can think of is that they're scrapped for cash.
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How much would Lamela have gone for if Roma kept him for another 2 years? Empty Re: How much would Lamela have gone for if Roma kept him for another 2 years?

Post by Casciavit Fri Aug 23, 2013 4:34 pm

These type of threads never make sense to me, you don't know whether a player would do good in another 2 years or whether he would do bad.

If he did good =50-60 million

If he did bad = 20-30
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How much would Lamela have gone for if Roma kept him for another 2 years? Empty Re: How much would Lamela have gone for if Roma kept him for another 2 years?

Post by serieAkings Fri Aug 23, 2013 5:37 pm

Either way they would profit or break even, Roma ruined what couldve been a great mercato for them by selling Lamela.
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How much would Lamela have gone for if Roma kept him for another 2 years? Empty Re: How much would Lamela have gone for if Roma kept him for another 2 years?

Post by Onyx Fri Aug 23, 2013 5:45 pm

He could have declined in two years, so no one would know. However if he kept up his current level, then I'd say around 45-50m.

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How much would Lamela have gone for if Roma kept him for another 2 years? Empty Re: How much would Lamela have gone for if Roma kept him for another 2 years?

Post by The_Badger Fri Aug 23, 2013 7:41 pm

Yohan Modric wrote:He could have declined in two years, so no one would know.
Exactly. Roma have got a good fee for him. As long as they put it to good use, they won't look back.

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How much would Lamela have gone for if Roma kept him for another 2 years? Empty Re: How much would Lamela have gone for if Roma kept him for another 2 years?

Post by BarrileteCosmico Fri Aug 23, 2013 9:32 pm

Casciavit wrote:These type of threads never make sense to me, you don't know whether a player would do good in another 2 years or whether he would do bad.

If he did good =50-60 million

If he did bad = 20-30
Weighted average of probability x prospected price.

Suppose you think the following:
25% chance he does bad and gets sold for 25m
75% chance he does well and gets sold for 55m

Then his current value is (.25*25)+(.75*55)= 47.5m
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How much would Lamela have gone for if Roma kept him for another 2 years? Empty Re: How much would Lamela have gone for if Roma kept him for another 2 years?

Post by Firenze Fri Aug 23, 2013 9:40 pm

If he kept up his current rate of progress, 60m.

Roma bought him for 17? huh..I figured they got him for a couple of mil or something..bad business selling him IMO
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How much would Lamela have gone for if Roma kept him for another 2 years? Empty Re: How much would Lamela have gone for if Roma kept him for another 2 years?

Post by The_Badger Fri Aug 23, 2013 9:47 pm

BarrileteCosmico wrote:
Casciavit wrote:These type of threads never make sense to me, you don't know whether a player would do good in another 2 years or whether he would do bad.

If he did good =50-60 million

If he did bad = 20-30
Weighted average of probability x prospected price.

Suppose you think the following:
25% chance he does bad and gets sold for 25m
75% chance he does well and gets sold for 55m

Then his current value is (.25*25)+(.75*55)= 47.5m
rofl

You simply cannot make up stats to validate your argument.

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How much would Lamela have gone for if Roma kept him for another 2 years? Empty Re: How much would Lamela have gone for if Roma kept him for another 2 years?

Post by CBarca Fri Aug 23, 2013 9:48 pm

Erm, what?
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How much would Lamela have gone for if Roma kept him for another 2 years? Empty Re: How much would Lamela have gone for if Roma kept him for another 2 years?

Post by The_Badger Fri Aug 23, 2013 9:51 pm

Didn't ask you a thing, so run along boy.

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How much would Lamela have gone for if Roma kept him for another 2 years? Empty Re: How much would Lamela have gone for if Roma kept him for another 2 years?

Post by BarrileteCosmico Fri Aug 23, 2013 9:52 pm

What stats? It was an example.
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How much would Lamela have gone for if Roma kept him for another 2 years? Empty Re: How much would Lamela have gone for if Roma kept him for another 2 years?

Post by The_Badger Fri Aug 23, 2013 9:54 pm

BarrileteCosmico wrote:What stats? It was an example.
So you just pull percentages from thin air to calculate a current value? Interesting. hmm 

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How much would Lamela have gone for if Roma kept him for another 2 years? Empty Re: How much would Lamela have gone for if Roma kept him for another 2 years?

Post by BarrileteCosmico Fri Aug 23, 2013 9:58 pm

It depends on your assessment. Different people would have different assessments of the likelihood of Lamela fulfilling his potential, or even about his potential roof. If you try to make that kind of analysis you have to assign probabilities. These can be educated guesses but yeah in football it would come down to a lot of guesswork.
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How much would Lamela have gone for if Roma kept him for another 2 years? Empty Re: How much would Lamela have gone for if Roma kept him for another 2 years?

Post by The_Badger Fri Aug 23, 2013 10:02 pm

So you calculate a player's current value using an equation, which relies upon totally made up figures, which themselves are heavily biased depending upon your own opinion of the player?

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How much would Lamela have gone for if Roma kept him for another 2 years? Empty Re: How much would Lamela have gone for if Roma kept him for another 2 years?

Post by BarrileteCosmico Fri Aug 23, 2013 10:06 pm

Isn't any prediction of his future value entirely based on "your own opinion of the player"?

Don't see what's so controversial about what I did.
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How much would Lamela have gone for if Roma kept him for another 2 years? Empty Re: How much would Lamela have gone for if Roma kept him for another 2 years?

Post by The_Badger Fri Aug 23, 2013 10:10 pm

Except you're using your biased opinion of his potential to calculate his current value, which interestingly is way higher than the fee Spurs are reportedly paying.

Anyway, I just wanted clarification as so in future I can steal this crackpot idea for my own means.

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How much would Lamela have gone for if Roma kept him for another 2 years? Empty Re: How much would Lamela have gone for if Roma kept him for another 2 years?

Post by zizzle Fri Aug 23, 2013 10:27 pm

The_Badger wrote:
BarrileteCosmico wrote:
Casciavit wrote:These type of threads never make sense to me, you don't know whether a player would do good in another 2 years or whether he would do bad.

If he did good =50-60 million

If he did bad = 20-30
Weighted average of probability x prospected price.

Suppose you think the following:
25% chance he does bad and gets sold for 25m
75% chance he does well and gets sold for 55m

Then his current value is (.25*25)+(.75*55)= 47.5m
rofl

You simply cannot make up stats to validate your argument.
he didnt even discount the time value of money
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Post by BarrileteCosmico Fri Aug 23, 2013 10:30 pm

Didn't feel the need to bring up that level of (admittedly low) sophistication as I would have to explain it and that was simply too much effort for very little reward Razz
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Post by DeviAngel Sat Aug 24, 2013 3:26 am

if he stays fit and doesn't get a serious injury than 45-50 maybe more he is hell of a talent even thou his character is not among the best but he is a winner something I like
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