When Possession Isn't

Have you ever looked at possession figures and wondered exactly how they're calculated? I have, and they've never really made much sense. How do you deal with the time elapsed between a pass, for example? Is a pass counted only as 'possession' if it's recovered at the end? How about clearances? Do people sit with stopwatches counting the time that they think a team's in control, and, if so, what does that mean?

http://www.weaintgotnohistory.com/2012/4/22/2966747/possession-analysis-football-statistics

Very interesting read...

I agree.

:shocK:

Volume of Passes are you kidding me?

I have been deceived.

I always wondered how it was calculated, and then ... :vagi:.

:vagi:

I just read through the article. Fascinating. I really have to admit I never really thought about this either - I always assumed it was the time thing, too. *shakes head* I guess just about everybody was deceived there!

I really won't look at this stat the same ever again tbh.

I found this article after doing a little research because to me it never really looked like Madrid were that far outdone with the ball, sure maybe 60-40 or something close but 72-28 seemed way too much for me.

Now that I know how it's calculated it makes sense, very deceiving though....

I've wondered about this before, thanks for posting the article to help put the statistic into perspective. I'd be interested to know of other methods which are employed to quantify the value, if they are in common usage and the results readily available.

:vagi:

Crimson wrote:I really won't look at this stat the same ever again tbh.

I found this article after doing a little research because to me it never really looked like Madrid were that far outdone with the ball, sure maybe 60-40 or something close but 72-28 seemed way too much for me.

Now that I know how it's calculated it makes sense, very deceiving though....

Barcelona's sideways passes :vagi:.

Great article. I've always thought the possession stat was dodgy. A "time in possession" stat would be simpler to calculate and wouldn't be misleading because it tells you exactly what is being measured.

Forza Rossoneri wrote:Great article. I've always thought the possession stat was dodgy. A "time in possession" stat would be simpler to calculate and wouldn't be misleading because it tells you exactly what is being measured.

Sometimes I see possession represented as perhaps 12 mins 33 to 10 mins 37 for the half, so I've often thought how rigid their definition and how rigorous they are when collecting data. It could potentially be equally spurious.

Where'd you pull those numbers from?

beatrixasdfghjk. wrote:Where'd you pull those numbers from?

Just a rough recollection of some figures I've seen displayed during broadcast, nothing specific.

i think in seria a they do actually use time.

Forza Rossoneri wrote:Great article. I've always thought the possession stat was dodgy. A "time in possession" stat would be simpler to calculate and wouldn't be misleading because it tells you exactly what is being measured.

'How do you deal with the time elapsed between a pass, for example? Is a pass counted only as 'possession' if it's recovered at the end? How about clearances?'

Yea i've seen that too. I think for those sorta stats they actually calculate how long a player is literally in possession for and when the ball is rolling like during a pass, it's not recorded.

beatrixasdfghjk. wrote:

Forza Rossoneri wrote:Great article. I've always thought the possession stat was dodgy. A "time in possession" stat would be simpler to calculate and wouldn't be misleading because it tells you exactly what is being measured.

'How do you deal with the time elapsed between a pass, for example? Is a pass counted only as 'possession' if it's recovered at the end? How about clearances?'

You can have 'disputed possession' for the moments in which neither team have control over the ball.

You mentioned a couple of examples...

Example #1: Passes
Passes should be counted as possession until they are intercepted/blocked. Technically, the passer is still in control of the ball because they are responsible for the path of the ball. Their possession continues until the moment the ball is blocked/intercepted, at which time it will become disputed possession/other team's possession.

Example #2: Clearances
Clearances with no target intended should be counted as disputed possession. After the ball has travelled, it is again able to be recovered by either team, at which point they could officially take possession again.

A team's collective control of a ball isn't really challenged necessarily when the ball isn't literally in contact rather than mid-pass, however either way, any statistic is meaningless without context. Possession's relation to territory, exploitation of the opposition's weaknesses with how you do use your possession could meaningfully justify the use of alternate definitions.

This does raise the question of how valid "territory" is as a statistic as well if it is also is derived for ease through pass volume and not time spent in regions of the pitch.

dostoevsky wrote:A team's collective control of a ball isn't really challenged necessarily when the ball isn't literally in contact rather than mid-pass, however either way, any statistic is meaningless without context. Possession's relation to territory, exploitation of the opposition's weaknesses with how you do use your possession could meaningfully justify the use of alternate definitions.

This does raise the question of how valid "territory" is as a statistic as well if it is also is derived for ease through pass volume and not time spent in regions of the pitch.

What about heat maps, would they be done from time or passes?

Forza Rossoneri wrote:Example #1: Passes
Passes should be counted as possession until they are intercepted/blocked. Technically, the passer is still in control of the ball because they are responsible for the path of the ball. Their possession continues until the moment the ball is blocked/intercepted, at which time it will become disputed possession/other team's possession.

What if a guy just tried to lob the ball over the back line, but the forward doesn't bother running for it, it's pretty obviously the other team's possession as soon as the ball's gone :L.

beatrixasdfghjk. wrote:

Forza Rossoneri wrote:Example #1: Passes
Passes should be counted as possession until they are intercepted/blocked. Technically, the passer is still in control of the ball because they are responsible for the path of the ball. Their possession continues until the moment the ball is blocked/intercepted, at which time it will become disputed possession/other team's possession.

What if a guy just tried to lob the ball over the back line, but the forward doesn't bother running for it, it's pretty obviously the other team's possession as soon as the ball's gone :L.

Key
Team A
Disputed
Team B

---

The ball is lobbed over the back-line
The striker sees the ball and could run for it
It becomes apparent that the striker is not running for it
The ball is in the air
The ball lands somewhere in between team B's defence and GK
Team B defender recovers the ball

---

What is my rationale behind this taxonomy?

We use possession stats to determine how much time the team has control of the ball. This leads to analysis of how they use their time in possession, e.g. passes, shots, territory.

The ball is 'wild' as soon as the striker does not run for the ball because he is 'abandoning' the ball- so it cannot be in team A's possession.

What about team B...?

It would be unhelpful to count the time that the ball is in the air and the time that the ball is sitting there on its own after it has landed as part of team B's possession because it is unable to be used at that time. It is not enough that team B will have control of the ball in the future for possession to be established. There is no actual possession in this scenario for team B- they have to claim the ball to use the ball.

Yeah, that works, but then you'd need a better word than disputed .

I always thought is was time on the ball :vagi:

I would have never thought it was:

(Pass by 1 team)/(Total passes in game) x 100.

Thanks for enlightening me Crimson because I honestly could have watched football for another 50 years and would never have known.

I always thought there was someone timing it lol.