French Elections 2017

+25
M99
Blue
sportsczy
Freeza
Blue Barrett
urbaNRoots
Firenze
Robespierre
DeletedUser#1
footyfan01
Tomwin Lannister
Unique
Adit
rincon
RealGunner
iftikhar
McLewis
Arquitecto
VivaStPauli
DuringTheWar
Myesyats
zigra
BarrileteCosmico
Pedram
Nishankly
29 posters

Page 1 of 11 1, 2, 3 ... 9, 10, 11  Next

Go down

French Elections 2017 Empty French Elections 2017

Post by Nishankly Sun Feb 05, 2017 10:03 pm

Another election where the far right is trying to dominate power, Do we think Le Pen will take power this year?
Nishankly
Nishankly
Spicy Curry

Club Supported : Lyon
Posts : 20415
Join date : 2011-06-05
Age : 27

Back to top Go down

French Elections 2017 Empty Re: French Elections 2017

Post by Pedram Sun Feb 05, 2017 11:08 pm

Looks like Macron will easily beat her in the runoff.
Pedram
Pedram
Fan Favorite
Fan Favorite

Club Supported : Real Madrid
Posts : 6617
Join date : 2011-06-06
Age : 30

Back to top Go down

French Elections 2017 Empty Re: French Elections 2017

Post by BarrileteCosmico Mon Feb 06, 2017 1:01 am

Due to the run off structure it looks like Le Pen will take 1st minority in the first run and lose in the 2nd. But polls have been wrong before...
BarrileteCosmico
BarrileteCosmico
Admin
Admin

Club Supported : Barcelona
Posts : 27191
Join date : 2011-06-05
Age : 31

Back to top Go down

French Elections 2017 Empty Re: French Elections 2017

Post by Nishankly Mon Feb 06, 2017 1:09 am

She seems worse than Trump. Frexit on the cards.
Nishankly
Nishankly
Spicy Curry

Club Supported : Lyon
Posts : 20415
Join date : 2011-06-05
Age : 27

Back to top Go down

French Elections 2017 Empty Re: French Elections 2017

Post by zigra Mon Feb 06, 2017 1:12 am

Polls being slightly wrong is one thing but to that extent? Even Fillon still leads 60-40 and I expect Macron (who polls even better) to make the 2nd round. Still 3 months left of course.
zigra
zigra
First Team
First Team

Club Supported : Ajax
Posts : 4240
Join date : 2013-08-15

Back to top Go down

French Elections 2017 Empty Re: French Elections 2017

Post by Nishankly Mon Feb 06, 2017 5:56 am

I think Le Pen will take it, She's not exactly far right. Majority of her causes are for the French people, The added immigration laws and exit from the EU are only supported by people who don't understand major issue but feel important through this.

She's going to win, It'll start the demise of the EU and the Schengen and probably the fact the Europe will start to the take the same shape as it did in the 1930s, Where the borders were closed.
Nishankly
Nishankly
Spicy Curry

Club Supported : Lyon
Posts : 20415
Join date : 2011-06-05
Age : 27

Back to top Go down

French Elections 2017 Empty Re: French Elections 2017

Post by Myesyats Mon Feb 06, 2017 8:40 am

@Nishankly wrote:She seems worse than Trump. Frexit on the cards.


Leaving the EU is not a bad thing. It's an organization that's going to collapse soon anyway, one way or another.

Myesyats
World Class Contributor
World Class Contributor

Club Supported : PSG
Posts : 15590
Join date : 2015-05-03
Age : 22

Back to top Go down

French Elections 2017 Empty Re: French Elections 2017

Post by Nishankly Mon Feb 06, 2017 8:54 am

@Myesyats wrote:
@Nishankly wrote:She seems worse than Trump. Frexit on the cards.


Leaving the EU is not a bad thing. It's an organization that's going to collapse soon anyway, one way or another.


Yeah It probably is, I reckon its going to cause a huge amount of commotion and division in Europe.
Those sentences in the post before weren't interrelated.
Nishankly
Nishankly
Spicy Curry

Club Supported : Lyon
Posts : 20415
Join date : 2011-06-05
Age : 27

Back to top Go down

French Elections 2017 Empty Re: French Elections 2017

Post by Pedram Mon Feb 06, 2017 1:22 pm

@Nishankly wrote:I think Le Pen will take it, She's not exactly far right. Majority of her causes are for the French people, The added immigration laws and exit from the EU are only supported by people who don't understand major issue but feel important through this.

She's going to win, It'll start the demise of the EU and the Schengen and probably the fact the Europe will start to the take the same shape as it did in the 1930s, Where the borders were closed.


Check out the polls, she's already maxed out and can't expand her base beyond that 25% who are her fanatical supporters, the rest of the country absolutely despise Le Pen. far leftists, centrists, center right would rather unite behind a turd sandwich in order to beat her. a similar scenario happened in the 2002 election in which Marine Le Pen's father managed to get into the second round but then he got smashed by Jacques Chirac in the runoff.

Nothing is set in stone though, a lot can happen in this three months.
Pedram
Pedram
Fan Favorite
Fan Favorite

Club Supported : Real Madrid
Posts : 6617
Join date : 2011-06-06
Age : 30

Back to top Go down

French Elections 2017 Empty Re: French Elections 2017

Post by DuringTheWar Mon Feb 06, 2017 3:11 pm

After the polling during the US election, and the fact that the phone polls in Britain showed remain winning while online polls showed leave winning, I think it's probably true that politically correct social pressure has made polling completely useless to gauge public opinion, unless it's done in a way that is completely anonymous, because people clearly havent been telling the truth.

It's stupid to bet on the polls, wishful thinking I guess.
DuringTheWar
DuringTheWar
First Team
First Team

Club Supported : Arsenal
Posts : 2870
Join date : 2012-01-03

Back to top Go down

French Elections 2017 Empty Re: French Elections 2017

Post by zigra Mon Feb 06, 2017 3:46 pm

@DuringTheWar wrote:After the polling during the US election, and the fact that the phone polls in Britain showed remain winning while online polls showed leave winning, I think it's probably true that politically correct social pressure has made polling completely useless to gauge public opinion, unless it's done in a way that is completely anonymous, because people clearly havent been telling the truth.

It's stupid to bet on the polls, wishful thinking I guess.


https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_United_Kingdom_European_Union_membership_referendum#Polls_of_polls
Polls of polls showed a very small (0% up to 4%) lead of remain and up to 10% undecided.
Leave won with a 3.8 lead.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nationwide_opinion_polling_for_the_United_States_presidential_election,_2016
Polls showed a nationwide lead of ~2-5 points for Clinton. She won by 2.1%.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_French_presidential_election,_2017
The worst poll for 2017 has Macron leading le Pen by 63-37 in a 2nd round vote.

Can you spot the difference?

Polls always have a margin of error. I hope you know what that is. They also don't predict how many people will actually go to vote (they could ask to be fair) and there are always people who are still undecided. This is why leading by a few points can still easily see you end up losing a vote.
But Macron is not leading by a few points. You see the lead.

Of course the situation can change. There are 3 months left after all.
zigra
zigra
First Team
First Team

Club Supported : Ajax
Posts : 4240
Join date : 2013-08-15

Back to top Go down

French Elections 2017 Empty Re: French Elections 2017

Post by VivaStPauli Tue Feb 07, 2017 9:54 pm

Fillons scandals might really save France from this mess, I really hope they rally around Macron for now.


Last edited by VivaStPauli on Tue Feb 07, 2017 9:57 pm; edited 1 time in total (Reason for editing : typo)
VivaStPauli
VivaStPauli
Fan Favorite
Fan Favorite

Club Supported : FC St. Pauli
Posts : 8829
Join date : 2011-06-05
Age : 37

Back to top Go down

French Elections 2017 Empty Re: French Elections 2017

Post by Arquitecto Wed Feb 08, 2017 2:15 pm

Le Pen will take this one, mark these words.
Arquitecto
Arquitecto
World Class Contributor
World Class Contributor

Club Supported : Real Sociedad
Posts : 11447
Join date : 2011-06-05

Back to top Go down

French Elections 2017 Empty Re: French Elections 2017

Post by Nishankly Wed Feb 08, 2017 2:37 pm

Arquitescu wrote:Le Pen will take this one, mark these words.


Don't say that ffs, Well yeah given the recent events I would expect Le Pen to just about edge with some fiery speeches at the end.

I have offers from top Grand Ecoles, I need to make a decision very soon. Horrible situation I am in.
Nishankly
Nishankly
Spicy Curry

Club Supported : Lyon
Posts : 20415
Join date : 2011-06-05
Age : 27

Back to top Go down

French Elections 2017 Empty Re: French Elections 2017

Post by DuringTheWar Wed Feb 08, 2017 3:29 pm

Zigra

The 'poll of polls' on that link completely ignores the point I was making: that phone and online polls were different. 78% of phone polls put remain in the lead, 63% of online polls put leave in the lead. Please tell me what the margin of victory was for remain from a poll of phone polls...
And every single aggregate or 'poll of polls' had Clinton/remain winning so please don't bother blaming the margin of error.

I take your point that the difference in these French polls is greater. In no way am I suggesting people on the left or liberals should become less arrogant. I've experienced much amusement watching them inflict pain on themselves through their own gargantuan hubris. So by all means, for all I care be 100% certain le pen will lose.
DuringTheWar
DuringTheWar
First Team
First Team

Club Supported : Arsenal
Posts : 2870
Join date : 2012-01-03

Back to top Go down

French Elections 2017 Empty Re: French Elections 2017

Post by zigra Wed Feb 08, 2017 4:28 pm

BTW Clinton won the public vote. Not sure why you want to use polls predicting that against polls but whatever...

"Online polls, on average, predicted a "leave" win with a 1.2% margin, whereas phone polls had "remain" win with a 2.6% margin." (same link)
Not a lot of time so I stick to the simplest facts: Phone calls were 6.4 percent off the correct result which was considered a shock.
In his worst poll Macron has a 26 point lead.


And I've already said polls can change till May.
zigra
zigra
First Team
First Team

Club Supported : Ajax
Posts : 4240
Join date : 2013-08-15

Back to top Go down

French Elections 2017 Empty Re: French Elections 2017

Post by McLewis Thu Feb 09, 2017 11:36 am

There isn't a French version of the Electoral college, is there?
McLewis
McLewis
Admin
Admin

Club Supported : Roma
Posts : 12677
Join date : 2011-06-05
Age : 33

Back to top Go down

French Elections 2017 Empty Re: French Elections 2017

Post by zigra Thu Feb 09, 2017 12:37 pm

No. They had it till 1962 but got rid and now the president is directly elected by the people.
zigra
zigra
First Team
First Team

Club Supported : Ajax
Posts : 4240
Join date : 2013-08-15

Back to top Go down

French Elections 2017 Empty Re: French Elections 2017

Post by VivaStPauli Tue Feb 14, 2017 12:19 pm

France has almost always been very centralized, too. They don't bother with Federalism at all, like the US, or Germany, have to.
VivaStPauli
VivaStPauli
Fan Favorite
Fan Favorite

Club Supported : FC St. Pauli
Posts : 8829
Join date : 2011-06-05
Age : 37

Back to top Go down

French Elections 2017 Empty Re: French Elections 2017

Post by Myesyats Tue Feb 14, 2017 2:28 pm

Arquitescu wrote:Le Pen will take this one, mark these words.

If people are aware and brave enough.

Myesyats
World Class Contributor
World Class Contributor

Club Supported : PSG
Posts : 15590
Join date : 2015-05-03
Age : 22

Back to top Go down

French Elections 2017 Empty Re: French Elections 2017

Post by DuringTheWar Thu Feb 16, 2017 7:17 pm

Le Pen massively popular with young French people

https://davidbellefx.com/2017/02/13/the-young-are-voting-for-marine-le-pen-more-than-any-other-age-group-why/

Optimistically (naively) explains it away as 'unemployment'. Heaven forbid we talk about the deeper issues.
DuringTheWar
DuringTheWar
First Team
First Team

Club Supported : Arsenal
Posts : 2870
Join date : 2012-01-03

Back to top Go down

French Elections 2017 Empty Re: French Elections 2017

Post by Nishankly Fri Feb 24, 2017 10:09 pm

What do you guys in France think about this?
@Farfan @Sportsczy
Nishankly
Nishankly
Spicy Curry

Club Supported : Lyon
Posts : 20415
Join date : 2011-06-05
Age : 27

Back to top Go down

French Elections 2017 Empty Re: French Elections 2017

Post by iftikhar Tue Mar 07, 2017 12:36 pm

Isn't there any leftist candidate in the French presidential election???
iftikhar
iftikhar
Fan Favorite
Fan Favorite

Club Supported : Liverpool
Posts : 9317
Join date : 2011-06-06
Age : 49

Back to top Go down

French Elections 2017 Empty Re: French Elections 2017

Post by Nishankly Tue Mar 07, 2017 2:14 pm

@iftikhar wrote:Isn't there any leftist candidate in the French presidential election???


Emmanuel Macron in a way. He's polling second atm, We are yet to see where Fillon's popularity is supposed to go once he's out of the race after the scandal unless something else has transpired.
Nishankly
Nishankly
Spicy Curry

Club Supported : Lyon
Posts : 20415
Join date : 2011-06-05
Age : 27

Back to top Go down

French Elections 2017 Empty Re: French Elections 2017

Post by Pedram Tue Mar 07, 2017 11:25 pm

@iftikhar wrote:Isn't there any leftist candidate in the French presidential election???


Hamon and Melenchon. Hamon is basically the french Bernie Sanders, a left-wing populist who wants to introduce basic income, tax robots and reduce the 35-hour working week. Melenchon is a borderline communist and is currently polling at around 10%. neither has any chance of winning though.

Macron is a centrist. pro-EU, pro-business, socially liberal, fiscally conservative.
Pedram
Pedram
Fan Favorite
Fan Favorite

Club Supported : Real Madrid
Posts : 6617
Join date : 2011-06-06
Age : 30

Back to top Go down

French Elections 2017 Empty Re: French Elections 2017

Post by Sponsored content


Sponsored content


Back to top Go down

Page 1 of 11 1, 2, 3 ... 9, 10, 11  Next

Back to top


 
Permissions in this forum:
You cannot reply to topics in this forum