Donald Trump watch

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Post by iftikhar on Thu Sep 24, 2020 4:06 pm

I will ask a very cynical, serious, yet in the given context, very practical question.

Is USA sliding towards a civil war!!! Well civil war might be stretching it a bit too far, but a prolonged period of widespread violent conflicts.

Black Panther existed in a similar situation of morbid atrocities towards minority (all sorts) groups and things like KKK never really ceased to exist.

Scenario #1: Trump wins and an embolden federal officers, police forces and militia groups continues the legacy of atrocities, abuse and discrimination. Protests become more violent. Federal & local forces and militia groups responds with absolute sense of impunity; spraying protesters with bullets (pretty common in USA) and taking out key organizers in surgical strikes. More violent protests. The cycle continues.

Scenario #2: Trump loses (unlikely) and refuses to step down. Federal & local forces and militia groups tries to suppress widespread protests. Protests become violent. Trump declares state of emergency/martial law. More violent protests. The cycle continues.

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Post by CBarca on Fri Sep 25, 2020 2:30 am

Scenario #2 is very, very unlikely. For as many people as think that the US is sliding down the democracy scale (which isn't necessarily wrong), we're a long way away from having the first step of a dictatorship occur. Even Congressional Republicans are walking back the Presidents statements, as well as the press secretary.

As horrifying as his statements are, and as little respect as they show to democracy, the rule of law, and the office of the POTUS, there isn't any way that Trump manages to somehow corral the US Military and US Congress into strongarming his way into a third term.

I think he'll leave kicking and screaming (I'm assuming he will lose as that is the probable result at this point according to polling), but he'll leave.

Scenario #1 is more likely, but a pretty doomsday way of looking at a Trump win. In any case, no we are not sliding into a civil war. We are in a pretty historic time of civil unrest though, obviously. With the worst person to be in charge of it.
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Post by El Gunner on Fri Sep 25, 2020 3:23 am

well if they burn down the entire country it will probably be for betterment of the rest of the world and the prosperity of humanity

unfortunately it won't happen, but one can dream i suppose
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Post by Myesyats on Fri Sep 25, 2020 9:44 am

You just had the first black potus elected, a man with a middle name Hussein (miracle imo), and now you want to burn the place down? Sometimes you have to take one step back to move 2 steps forward. Manage your expectations hmm
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Post by BarrileteCosmico on Sun Sep 27, 2020 3:29 pm

@elitedam wrote:Did you read The Atlantic's version?

https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2020/11/what-if-trump-refuses-concede/616424/
finally got around finishing this article, many of the same points although a lot more detail on how it might take place. Let's hope for a landslide.
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Post by BarrileteCosmico on Sun Sep 27, 2020 4:58 pm

Kushner, seated at the head of the conference table, in a chair taller than all the others, was quick to strike a confrontational tone. “The federal government is not going to lead this response,” he announced. “It’s up to the states to figure out what they want to do.”

One attendee explained to Kushner that due to the finite supply of PPE, Americans were bidding against each other and driving prices up. To solve that, businesses eager to help were looking to the federal government for leadership and direction.

“Free markets will solve this,” Kushner said dismissively. “That is not the role of government.”

The same attendee explained that although he believed in open markets, he feared that the system was breaking. As evidence, he pointed to a CNN report about New York governor Andrew Cuomo and his desperate call for supplies.

“That’s the CNN bullshit,” Kushner snapped. “They lie.”

According to another attendee, Kushner then began to rail against the governor: “Cuomo didn’t pound the phones hard enough to get PPE for his state…. His people are going to suffer and that’s their problem.”

“That’s when I was like, We’re screwed,” the shocked attendee told Vanity Fair.

The group argued for invoking the Defense Production Act. “We were all saying, ‘Mr. Kushner, if you want to fix this problem for PPE and ventilators, there’s a path to do it, but you have to make a policy change,’” one person who attended the meeting recounted.

In response Kushner got “very aggressive,” the attendee recalled. “He kept invoking the markets” and told the group they “only understood how entrepreneurship works, but didn’t understand how government worked.”

https://www.vanityfair.com/news/2020/09/jared-kushner-let-the-markets-decide-covid-19-fate

SMH not even surprised
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Post by Hapless_Hans on Sun Sep 27, 2020 5:01 pm

So Trump gets to make 3 lifetime appointments to the Supreme Court in one term, one whole third of the court

Really, there's only one solution to save the Supreme Court and with it American Democracy

and it's assassinations

think about it, it's terrible but it's true

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Post by CBarca on Sun Sep 27, 2020 6:42 pm

NYT/Siena with Biden +8 on Trump nationally.

Marist has Biden +10 in WI and +8 in MI, as we March relentlessly towards election day.

Both are A+ pollsters, according to 538.

Any idea of the race tightening has not really shown up in reality. I have expected a tightening and it's not occurring, at least not yet. But it was always going to be limited with the # of undecideds being so low.

Trump's odds are dwindling.
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Post by VivaStPauli on Mon Sep 28, 2020 5:11 pm

Doesn't matter.
Trump will probably just stop the count early, thus discounting most of the mail-in votes, which will heavily favor Biden.
He will use the Supreme Court that is stacked with his cronies to stop the count early, thus stealing the election and ending American Democracy.

RIP USA.
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Post by Duronto-Roddur on Wed Sep 30, 2020 1:59 pm

@CBarca wrote:Scenario #2 is very, very unlikely. For as many people as think that the US is sliding down the democracy scale (which isn't necessarily wrong), we're a long way away from having the first step of a dictatorship occur. Even Congressional Republicans are walking back the Presidents statements, as well as the press secretary.

As horrifying as his statements are, and as little respect as they show to democracy, the rule of law, and the office of the POTUS, there isn't any way that Trump manages to somehow corral the US Military and US Congress into strongarming his way into a third term.

I think he'll leave kicking and screaming (I'm assuming he will lose as that is the probable result at this point according to polling), but he'll leave.

Scenario #1 is more likely, but a pretty doomsday way of looking at a Trump win. In any case, no we are not sliding into a civil war. We are in a pretty historic time of civil unrest though, obviously. With the worst person to be in charge of it.
It will be best for the whole world if the situation is resolved peacefully.

Four years ago, did you perceive the chaos/atrocities you are witnessing today? I admire your positivism. But USA/Trump has spun-off the predictability curve for some time now, don't you agree!!!

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Post by BarrileteCosmico on Thu Oct 01, 2020 1:57 am

https://www.currentaffairs.org/2020/09/why-amy-coney-barrett-should-not-be-on-the-supreme-court

Let’s begin with an immigration case, one that shows very well how Barrett will undermine basic constitutional rights. Mohsin Yafai is a United States citizen whose wife, Zahoor Ahmed, is a citizen of Yemen. Yafai and Ahmed wanted to live together in the United States, so Ahmed and her children applied (using the correct legal process) for visas. The consular office denied Ahmed’s application on the grounds that she had “attempted to smuggle two children into the United States using the identities Yaqub Mohsin Yafai and Khaled Mohsin Yafai.” It’s not clear why the consular officer believed Ahmed was attempting to “smuggle” children (no evidence was provided to the family), but apparently the consular officer thought the children Ahmed had applied for visas for were not actually her children. In any case, the children, Yaqub and Khaled, had tragically drowned while the applications were pending. Yafai and Ahmed then submitted a large amount of evidence to the consulate, including “vaccination records for the deceased children, school records for the older deceased child, prenatal care and ultrasound records, publications concerning the drowning, a passport for the older deceased child, and complete family photos prior to the children’s deaths.” But the U.S. simply affirmed its existing visa denial, meaning that Mohsin (again, a citizen of this country) could not live here with his wife, Zahoor. The two took the matter to the courts.

Here is where Amy Coney Barrett comes in: she threw out the couple’s case. Writing for two judges on a three-judge panel, she said that it didn’t matter whether the accusation was based on no evidence. It didn’t matter whether Zahood Ahmed provided giant piles of counterevidence showing that the visa denial had been a mistake, and that she had fulfilled the legal requirements to come to the U.S. to live with her husband. It didn’t matter if the officer had just made the smuggling stuff up out of whole cloth. Barrett wrote that because the consular officer had cited a statute (the anti-smuggling one) in denying the visa, the decision was “facially legitimate and bona fide,” and therefore would not be reviewed by the court.

The third judge on the panel, Kenneth Ripple (a Reagan appointee), strongly dissented from Barrett’s judgment. The decision, Ripple said, showed “no respect for the Constitution or Congress” because it meant that the government could simply arbitrarily deny visas to people fully legally qualified for them, who had gone through the correct process and done everything right. And the government could do this based on vague accusations for which it provided no support, and without even pretending to review the applicant’s own evidence disproving the accusation. Under such a standard the law would become (even more of) an utterly meaningless fiction, because one’s rights could simply be trampled upon without it being possible to do anything about it. Ripple wrote:

Here, in a case where the Government asserts no national security interest and where the important familial rights of an American citizen are at stake, the Government asks us to rubber stamp the consular decision on the basis of a conclusory [a legal term meaning “stated as a fact without being proven”] assertion. Although Congress has tasked us, by statute, with the responsibility to prevent arbitrary and capricious government action, we look the other way despite the significant record evidence to refute the Government’s assertion and no suggestion that the consular officer even considered it. Congress did not, and would not, sanction consular officers’ making visa decisions in a purely arbitrary way that affects the basic rights of American citizens. We have the responsibility to ensure that such decisions, when born of laziness, prejudice or bureaucratic inertia, do not stand.

Barrett did not have to do this. Even the anti-immigration Center for Immigration Studies acknowledges that this area of law is “nowhere near settled.” Barrett made a choice to empower the government and disempower immigrants (and, remember, immigrants who follow the law to the letter). Ripple wasn’t the only one of Barrett’s fellow appellate judges to take her to task. In a dissent to an opinion denying Yafai and Ahmed a rehearing, judge Diane Wood (joined by Ilana Rovner and David Hamilton) called the ruling “a dangerous abdication of judicial responsibility” and “a deeply troubling extension of current law” because it “insulat[es the officer] from any shred of accountability.” Wood wrote:

At its root, due process requires that the person subject to a governmental action be given enough information to be able to know what the accusation against her is. A regime in which the consular official can just say“no,” and the US citizen spouse must guess both about the accusation that supposedly supported that decision and—critically—what facts lay behind the “no,” is not worthy of this country.

Judges are usually collegial types, so for one of them to call a decision “unworthy of this country” is a strong statement indeed. But it was necessary, because the implications of Barrett’s majority opinion so seriously threaten people’s basic legal protections.

Easy to see why Trump chose her...
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Post by sportsczy on Thu Oct 01, 2020 5:31 am

This isn't new btw.  If you come from a country that is designated by the State Department as hostile (that's not the term; I can't remember what it is), then the local consulate has the right to veto visas regardless of due process.  They don't even have to prove anything... just need suspicion. Reason for it is that a lot of these suspicions are based on intelligence or classified information that cannot be exposed in court.

When we had business operations in North Africa and the Middle East in the 00s, we ran into trouble with this when we wanted to bring employees to the US for training.  A few even had relatives in the US that were citizens.  It doesn't matter.

Similarly, my parents had the same problem in the 80s, hence the reason my mother and us (the kids) ended up in France while my father went to the US (to work).

Pretty sure this type of discrimination is common everywhere if we're honest. It's hard to go to a country that is hostile to the one you're trying to enter.

It's a shame... but that's how it is.
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Post by sportsczy on Thu Oct 01, 2020 5:38 am

My problem with Barrett is that she's a bible pusher...  that's the big no-no for me.  She seems a bit extreme about religion.

I think the separation of Church and State is fundamental in the US. We need leaders that respect that.
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Post by Art Morte on Thu Oct 01, 2020 9:20 am

@sportsczy wrote:My problem with Barrett is that she's a bible pusher...  that's the big no-no for me.  She seems a bit extreme about religion.

I think the separation of Church and State is fundamental in the US. We need leaders that respect that.


I - like surely many others - was pleasantly surprised that Trump's pick was a woman... but then I learnt she's very religious and yeah, that's terrible. The last thing there should in the Supreme Court is a nutter who looks to a fairy tale book for answers.
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Post by Blue on Thu Oct 01, 2020 7:48 pm

Nathan Robinson is supposed to be one of the intellect on the left, he embodies what is wrong with the left. They simply do not understand power and the motivation of their rivals.

Point blank the reason Barrett is being nominated is because her record of favoring corporation and the powerful. It is the reason why many of the elites are lobbying to get her on the court, even those who have objected to Trump.

Everything else is smoke and mirrors, it is to con the ordinary man and women from what is really going on. Feeding the culture war it is the reason why Trump and billionaires can pay $750 in taxes, which by the way was tax policies was set under Obama. It is also the reason why thr rich have gotten richer during a global pandemic; while unemployment rose to double digits, and destroyed many small businesses.

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Post by M99 on Thu Oct 01, 2020 7:58 pm

Telling Proud Boys to "stand by" is biggest YIKES moment so far.

Sadly that probably endeared him more to his supporters.
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Post by McLewis on Thu Oct 01, 2020 10:57 pm

@Blue wrote:Nathan Robinson is supposed to be one of the intellect on the left, he embodies what is wrong with the left. They simply do not understand power and the motivation of their rivals.

Point blank the reason Barrett is being nominated is because her record of favoring corporation and the powerful. It is the reason why many of the elites are lobbying to get her on the court, even those who have objected to Trump.

Everything else is smoke and mirrors, it is to con the ordinary man and women from what is really going on. Feeding the culture war it is the reason why Trump and billionaires can pay $750 in taxes, which by the way was tax policies was set under Obama. It is also the reason why thr rich have gotten richer during a global pandemic; while unemployment rose to double digits, and destroyed many small businesses.



In your opinion, what would be an effective tactic(s) the left could take to counter such a strategy from the right?
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Post by Art Morte on Fri Oct 02, 2020 9:13 am

I'm hearing that Biden used a Huawei-manufactured 5G device to give Trump covid at the debate.
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Post by Hapless_Hans on Fri Oct 02, 2020 9:14 am

well well well

once again, fingers crossed

the Donald is indestructible though so I'm not getting my hopes up

70+ years of fast food and diet coke didn't kill him, don't think CoVid can
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Post by Myesyats on Fri Oct 02, 2020 9:37 am

doesnt have to kill him, just weaken him enough so that he can't continue hmm
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Post by Babun on Fri Oct 02, 2020 12:03 pm

@Myesyats wrote:doesnt have to kill him, just weaken him enough so that he can't continue hmm

Politics don't work that way. Trump's team will milk the situaiton one way or another:
1. If he becomes seriously sick they'll play the victim support role for his core electors. He'll be going through the same difficulties the general public does etc.
2. If nothing serious happens they'll blow the pipe how they always said Wuhan virus isn't as bad as experts make it out to be.

Biden attacking a sick man would be regarded as low. I don't know whether there'll be a zoom debate during the Trump quarantine.
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Post by Pedram on Fri Oct 02, 2020 12:05 pm

@Art Morte wrote:I'm hearing that Biden used a Huawei-manufactured 5G device to give Trump covid at the debate.

He should be careful about the CIA heart attack gun now, the deep state is coming for him. eco smile
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Post by BarrileteCosmico on Fri Oct 02, 2020 2:20 pm

couldn't have happened to a nicer man...

That said, like when it happened to Boris and Bolsonaro, I wish him a speedy recovery, maybe with a different perspective at the end.
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Post by El Gunner on Fri Oct 02, 2020 3:16 pm

lol
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Post by McLewis on Fri Oct 02, 2020 3:51 pm

Unless he has symptoms, a recovery from this virus will be weaponized against the media by his supporters.

There is also the fact that he spent 90 minutes yelling directly at Biden, who now needs to get tested again himself, though he's been getting tested regularly.

Biden is as high a risk as Trump. This is precarious.
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Post by Art Morte on Fri Oct 02, 2020 4:20 pm

Would be hilarious if both candidates dropped dead days before the election.
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