Referendums in Catalonia and Kurdistan

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Post by iftikhar Thu Oct 05, 2017 3:35 pm

Pretty surprised that there wasn't any threads for either. Would appreciate something insightful.

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Post by RealGunner Thu Oct 05, 2017 6:05 pm

Spain thing is quite interesting. Spain consider this referendum illegal but Catalonia consider themselves independent. Where does this lead to?

Talks need to be held between both sides. Violence isn't the answer but it looks like Spain won't shy away from starting a civil war.
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Post by futbol_bill Thu Oct 05, 2017 6:07 pm

That's a huge exaggeration!
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Post by RealGunner Thu Oct 05, 2017 6:08 pm

which bit?
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Post by rincon Thu Oct 05, 2017 6:13 pm

Spain isn't starting a civil war. I don't agree with how they handled things (Rajoy is screwed), but the referendum is indeed illegal. It went to court and lost. They had already had this kind of mock referendum in the past.

Puidgemont, Junqueras, et al. 100% planned for this to happen and are acting exactly as those who prepared for, and benefited, from the fiasco that happen with the people and the civil guard.

The moment they declare independence they should go to prison, if not already. Every poll made shows that Catalonia is divided on this issue, some even that the minority are the ones who would vote to leave, and yet they were willing to declare independence. Breaking Spain like that without a formal vote, without support from the state, and without overwhelming support of the people they represent (Catalans) is a huge abuse of power. Extremely irresponsible.
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Post by futbol_bill Thu Oct 05, 2017 6:37 pm

Leading to civil war!

Just to give you the other side of argument.

A referendum by a single province is against the constitution and has been declared illegal by the courts.

They have asked EU to mediate and the response was no way. By the way, EU also told them no way would they be accepted into EU if they did separate.

The police dealing with civil disobedience was no worst than has happened for G20 protests in other countries. I acknowledge it didn't look good and Puigdemont has made the most of it, but neither did the G20 protests. These are the same police that Catalans were praising just a few weeks ago for their quick resolution of the Barcelona terrorists.

Their politicans have been stating they contribute 20% of the Spanish GDP and that they give more to Spain than they receive. Both of these statements are not true. They have been repeating this for years now and the general public has heard it so many times they believe it is true. Fact is Spain under Franco invested heavily in Cataluña and although their contribution of 20% was once true, it has been declining for years. And today one of their institutions Banco Sabadell has announced it is leaving Cataluña for Alicante because of this separation talk. It will likely be the first of many!.

Their politicians have been robbing them for years. Puyol himself has billions stored away.  He and others are under review and charges for both fraud and tax evasion. Andorra, Monaco and Switzerland are all due in 2018 to end banking secrecy and that will mean Spain will get the actual amounts of tax fraud as well as the Catalan politicians who have hidden. Their plans has been to establish independence so that they can avoid this disclosure.

The head of Cataluña salary (not including the money these guys regularly steal from the public confers) is three times the salary of the USA president let alone vastly ahead of head of Spain or any other European country. Bottom line is they are as corrupt as it comes and somehow the general public seem to be unaware of this!

These are the same guys, as well as Barca board who practically practice and support tax evasion.

And lastly, the next step, happening next Monday is Cataluña parliament is being suspended.
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Post by rincon Thu Oct 05, 2017 6:44 pm

@bill on ElPais just now. Parliament may lay the ground for other companies (like Caixa) to leave Catalonia the same way as Sabadell.

It all just gonna go to shit because of corrupt politicians exploiting the Catalan sentiment.
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Post by Tomwin Lannister Thu Oct 05, 2017 6:51 pm

So in pushing for an illegal referendum, they're going to end up losing big business, a move backed by Spanish gov? Ouch.
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Post by iftikhar Thu Oct 05, 2017 7:41 pm

The post election reaction by the Catalan leadership seemed sheepish. As if they neither dreamed of facing such adversity nor do they have the stomach to force the issue.

However the actions and attitudes of the Spanish is appealing at best. I mean just imagine the reactions and rhetoric if the same happened in some non West European country.
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Post by rincon Thu Oct 05, 2017 7:45 pm

What are you referring to? the post election reaction by the Catalan leadership was extremely cynical and prepared. Puidgemont has acted one step ahead of everything so far.
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Post by Warrior Fri Oct 06, 2017 4:07 am

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Sad Sad Sad Sad

100% behind Catalonia and Kurdistan
Independance is a long and tortuous road, i hope they never stop believing.
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Post by rincon Fri Oct 06, 2017 7:47 am

(I live surrounded by Spanish, different regions, so I'm always hearing news discussions about this, that's why I'm always on the topic).

What does it mean to be behind Catalonia? The have yet to have a majority of people voting or being polled to say yes to independence.

In two votes made by the Catalan government (2015 and now) they've failed to get higher than 42%. And that's even by their own count and report, no one checks their numbers. In Barcelona or Girona for example they never break 50%, in the catalan urban population they score the lowest and the highest in rural areas.

Now you have protests vs Puidgemont in Barcelona and bigger one planned for sunday (Puidgemont said that they might claim independence by monday)
https://elpais.com/ccaa/2017/10/05/catalunya/1507204713_891699.html

If you are going to declare independence just like that, your support needs to be massive. All this is doing is costing Catalonia, its a sham.
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Post by VivaStPauli Fri Oct 06, 2017 10:21 am

Yeah I agree with the people pointing to the numbers. I empathize with people wanting independence, but the Catalan referendum didn't even manage to get a 50% participation, and you can be pretty sure that those who didn't vote, would have voted against it to the degree of 90%ish.

I disagree though that the police wasn't "that bad", the police also being bad at G20 protests isn't an excuse, they overreacted horribly, and shouldn't have gone after the protesters, they should've gone after the politicians.

As I side point, I don't think the situations of Catalans and Kurds are comparable.

My general notion on this is, if you want to enact vast changes, you ought to have a stable majority, which is what I also said to Brexit. Making huge, disruptive changes because you got 50.1% of the vote or something like that is just disruptive for an entire political system. Talk again when two-thirds want it.

At least that's my two cents.
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Post by Warrior Fri Oct 06, 2017 12:08 pm

Everybody knew this referendum meant jack shit, that's why they don't bother voting. On my part, it's a symbolic support to those who really want independance, we're brothers in a lost cause.
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Post by rincon Fri Oct 06, 2017 12:38 pm

This referendum was made as binding by the Catalan government, that's why it was ruled illegal as a unilateral act. Before (in 2014/15) they had the non binding one and in both cases they failed to reach majorities.

It's not just the referendums though, they do pollings almost every year from Spanish and Catalan agencies. From all sources, yes to independence never reaches beyond 55%, in almost all cases it's below 50%.

If polls don't show a majority, referendums don't show a majority, then what's the argument for independence?

The Catalan government is the big responsible party for this mess.

They are trying to blackmail the Spanish government. They had a non-binding referendum, didn't achieve huge results. They made a new referendum and proclaimed it binding knowing the consequences. The state acted, they used the repression they were expecting to create this victim narrative. Their referendum again didn't achieve a majority. Then they threaten with a declaration of independence. It's BS.

All this accomplishes is to hurt the people living in Catalonia once the smokes settles. Big (Catalan) business are already moving out of Catalonia because of the independence threat. The Catalan parliament has been suspended, and likely the executive posts will have to be reshuffled.
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Post by Warrior Fri Oct 06, 2017 1:55 pm

Let me clarify one more thing, because i think you understand me wrong.

The people inside Catalonia that want independance for the right reasons, the minority you are referring to, those are the ones whom i offer my symbolic support. If the results prove majority want to remain in Spain, i don't have a problem with that. You have to respect the votes. And i have a problem with the government of Catalonia forcing the thing if the NO camp won.

The vote is deemed illegal, so this is all symbolic talking here.

That being said, i wonder what is the proportion of catalan people inside Catalonia ? And of them what is the proportion that voted "yes" ?
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Post by BarrileteCosmico Fri Oct 06, 2017 2:19 pm

Does it matter what ethnic catalans want? It should be based off everyone living there, not an ethnic group.
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Post by Babun Fri Oct 06, 2017 2:29 pm

@Warrior wrote:Let me clarify one more thing, because i think you understand me wrong.

The people inside Catalonia that want independance for the right reasons, the minority you are referring to, those are the ones whom i offer my symbolic support. If the results prove majority want to remain in Spain, i don't have a problem with that. You have to respect the votes. And i have a problem with the government of Catalonia forcing the thing if the NO camp won.

The vote is deemed illegal, so this is all symbolic talking here.

That being said, i wonder what is the proportion of catalan people inside Catalonia ? And of them what is the proportion that voted "yes" ?

That is what a non binding referendum ist meant for ( a legit one ). The local politicians get the backing by the majourity of people THEN they have a case for discussion with the gouvernment, a democratic, non violent, peaceful process.  
What wasn't told here: the separatists didn't get the majourity in their own Catalan parliament (47%). The Catalan court ruled the referendum as illegal then the Spanish one on top of it. By the looks of it, a minority is trying to force its will onto the rest of the population. The Spanish gouvernment is entitled to upheld law and order, to defend the rights of its citizens. Catalan local authority behaves no different from a fascist, oppressive regime towards people who are against the session.
Actions speak more than 1000 words:
1. Catalan loc. authority making the referendum binding without a majourity at all.
2. They go through with it even though it's illegal.
3. The voting is rigged because there are no international observers, people could vote multiple times, lots of irregularities.
4. If they have a proper backing by the people, they would push for another legit referendum where all Catalans can take part with international observers. They don't want that. A clear sign they wouldn't get the majourity in that case.
5. Spain MP handled the situation like an idiot but one has to upheld the law. Without the military presence, Catalan politicians could declare independence any minute causing lots of bloodshed in the aftermaths (Coup d' Etat). Right now,  the local regime can be dissolved any time -> less harm.

There is also a reason why there are no discussions at the moment. Puigdemont sets session as condition for the talks. Of course, Spain isn't going to start any talks under those conditions.

Metaview:
Catalunia has got vast autonomy, its own language etc. They are not oppressed by any means. The only problem could be that they want to pay less into the state called Spain. That's ok but why separate?
And why can Catalunia decide a matter by itself that concerns the whole Spain?

There is nothing democratic about the process. Those are some corrupt loonies.
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Post by Warrior Fri Oct 06, 2017 2:46 pm

@BarrileteCosmico wrote:Does it matter what ethnic catalans want? It should be based off everyone living there, not an ethnic group.



To me it matters. If they feel like the autonomy/recognition Spain gives them as a nation is not enough, and they manifest the desire to have an independant state of their own, how is that unimportant ?

To me there are only 2 sine qua non conditions:
- proof that the new country will be a sustainable state
- peaceful negociations with Spain (the most difficult part)

Non-catalans who live in Catalonia will have the right to give their opinion like everyone else. Democracy is 50%+ wins, not 60 or 66.
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Post by Warrior Fri Oct 06, 2017 2:58 pm

Corrupt politicians who serve a nationalist propaganda to the people for the sake of their own interests is another thing. That's not righteous.

That's why i asked

"what is the proportion of catalan people inside Catalonia ? And of them what is the proportion that voted "yes" ?"
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Post by Babun Fri Oct 06, 2017 3:22 pm

@Warrior wrote:Corrupt politicians who serve a nationalist propaganda to the people for the sake of their own interests is another thing. That's not righteous.

That's why i asked

"what is the proportion of catalan people inside Catalonia ? And of them what is the proportion that voted "yes" ?"

It is very easy to solve the problem in a democratic way. Dissolve the current parliament, let all Catalans vote for their representatives in a legitimate voting system (new parliament). The resulting gouvernment can discuss the issue of independence with Spain. There is no need for a referendum then. You will get the true vote of the people and a legitimate mandate to push for the independence if a majourity votes for that.

I`m 100% sure Spain will offer this and local parliament will resist the election with hands and feet Very Happy
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Post by futbol Fri Oct 06, 2017 3:39 pm

In general and especially in the case of Catalunya I'm against secession.

Catalunya aren't a supressed region. They are an autonomous region with their own language, rules, parliament, police unites etc. If every region of a state that feels "we're rich and paying too much for the rest of the country" wants indepence the world will be back to scattered regionalism pre 19th century.

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Post by rincon Fri Oct 06, 2017 3:40 pm

@Warrior wrote:Corrupt politicians who serve a nationalist propaganda to the people for the sake of their own interests is another thing. That's not righteous.

That's why i asked

"what is the proportion of catalan people inside Catalonia ? And of them what is the proportion that voted "yes" ?"


I'm not sure I understand that question, do you mean what proportion of people was born there as opposed to moved there?

I'm sure you can find numbers around. If its a cultural question then its harder to answer, as its entirely up to each person what being a Catalan means (past being born in Catalonia).

There is no "ethnic Catalan" that is different from a Valencian or an Andorran, or basically anyone from the peninsula and south of France. So its pretty much 100% up to a person what they consider themselves to be there. Other than of course having the papers that say you reside in Catalonia, as that is all that being Catalan means legally.
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Post by iftikhar Fri Oct 06, 2017 3:57 pm

@VivaStPauli wrote:Yeah I agree with the people pointing to the numbers. I empathize with people wanting independence, but the Catalan referendum didn't even manage to get a 50% participation, and you can be pretty sure that those who didn't vote, would have voted against it to the degree of 90%ish.

I disagree though that the police wasn't "that bad", the police also being bad at G20 protests isn't an excuse, they overreacted horribly, and shouldn't have gone after the protesters, they should've gone after the politicians.

As I side point, I don't think the situations of Catalans and Kurds are comparable. scratch

My general notion on this is, if you want to enact vast changes, you ought to have a stable majority, which is what I also said to Brexit. Making huge, disruptive changes because you got 50.1% of the vote or something like that is just disruptive for an entire political system. Talk again when two-thirds want it.

At least that's my two cents.
:bow:

Great post, as always
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Post by Warrior Fri Oct 06, 2017 4:04 pm

My opinion is and has been clear, catalan people should have the right to discuss a peaceful exit from Spain. Your solution would fulfill the second sine qua non condition i was talking about 1 or 2 posts before.

However, i can't help but see your solution as a monumental loss of time. You are asking the parliament to dissolve itself, of course they will resist. The time of negociations is right now.

Only Madrid government who fears losing the centralized power and they create a big mess out of it. Catalonia has made its choice i believe.
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