Potential impact of Brexit vote on English football

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Post by S Wed Jun 22, 2016 10:50 am

http://www.goal.com/en/news/14312/features/2016/06/22/24871372/pogba-will-cost-an-extra-30m-how-the-premier-league-will?ICID=HP_HN_2

Interesting read. Thoughts ?
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Post by Hapless_Hans Wed Jun 22, 2016 11:14 am

not going to happen
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Post by rwo power Wed Jun 22, 2016 11:14 am

I posted this yesterday in the Brexit thread in the Politics section:

I just read a very interesting article in the current kicker print issue.

If the UK go through with the Brexit, this would make the EU footballers in the Premier League suddenly foreign, so that they would need a work permit and thus fall into the requirement of having at least 30% to 70% of international matches with their NT (depending on where they come from).

As things stand, it would be unlikely that the Premier League would get a free movement exception as this would be a precedent for other industries, so it would be more difficult to contract foreign players.

On the plus side, this would mean that the PL clubs would sign up less mediocre players from outside (as they wouldn't meet the NT requirement) and have to start producing  more domestic players, which would have a positive impact on the English national team.

They didn't mention what this would mean for the foreign coaches/managers, though, but I would expect effects on this, too.
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Post by Sri Wed Jun 22, 2016 12:04 pm

The buffoonery to follow a Leave majority would be popcorn-grab-worthy, even though it makes me cringe to think of the aftermath for the domestic, regional and global economy.

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Post by rwo power Wed Jun 22, 2016 12:34 pm

Well, personally, I think it would be actually beneficial for the EU if the UK leaves as they put a lot of wrenches into sensible ideas (like the tariffs on Chinese steel price dumping, the veto to a financial transaction tax etc.) In the end the money the UK pays into the EU coffers wouldn't really be missed as soon as the leave of the UK enables the transaction tax, which would yield a lot of money.

For the people within the UK, the results of a Brexit will very likely be far more noticeable as many foreign companies have already announced they would relocate from the UK to EU member countries as a loss of access to the single market would lead to loss of money for them. Similarly, the banks that trade within the EU would relocate as France already announced a veto on bank passports for the UK in case of a break away which would make it impossible for UK based financial institutes to trade within the EU. These developments will lead to quite some dent in the UK GDP, which will make the UK's position when trying to negotiate new trade deals with all the other countries in the world weaker, so the outcomes might be far less favourable than promised.

The big problem IMO is the fact that a lot of voters only go for "gut feeling" and what their politicians tell them as many of these explicitly repeated the credo "don't believe the experts" over and over again and just uttered hollow slogans most of the time which of course sound much better than economical extrapolations and numbers that look not so favourable.

But of course the UK people don't have to worry, Johnson already announced that he would apologize to the public if the Brexit would result in a recession...
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Post by nasir6371 Wed Jun 22, 2016 1:48 pm

If they do leave, the PL will either redefine the foreign player rules or more likely UK will have agreement in place with the EU similar to Norway. This is all assuming France and Germany want to be amicable about their exit :coffee:
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Post by BarrileteCosmico Wed Jun 22, 2016 1:58 pm

The Norway agreement would be untenable to Leavers because it would mean accepting all EU rules without a vote, and the entire point of leaving the EU is to get rid of those rules.
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Post by nasir6371 Wed Jun 22, 2016 2:49 pm

BC your right they probably won't get the Norway deal but the should get the Free Trade deal easily. EU and UK need each other, UK is the 5th largest economy in the world and 2nd in Europe. No way their isn't a Free Trade deal between the two parties.

Can't doesn't the Foreign Player rules be changed? I'm pretty sure FA rules and not a UEFA/FIFA rule.
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Post by Robespierre Wed Jun 22, 2016 3:43 pm

It' s difficult an English player leaves Premier League though
Surely it has not to do with Serie A .. passed those times of Platt, Gascoigne when Serie A was an arrival point and not the contrary
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Post by rwo power Wed Jun 22, 2016 4:41 pm

nasir6371 wrote:BC your right they probably won't get the Norway deal but the should get the Free Trade deal easily. EU and UK need each other, UK is the 5th largest economy in the world and 2nd in Europe. No way their isn't a Free Trade deal between the two parties.
You forget that the EU is not really "one party", but there are 27 countries involved (without the UK) and *each* of them has a separate veto that can block any deal.

Don't you think that for example Romania or Poland wouldn't like to stick a finger to the UK, especially when the leave campaign uses Romanian immigration in the UK as one of the big points why they want out?  They don't have to lose much in trade terms, but they lose when the free movement is cut, so they will have no qualms to veto the trade deal if the UK wants to have it on their terms without paying to the EU, without abiding to EU rules and without having free movement.

Both Norway and Switzerland have to allow this to be in the single market, so you can't expect the UK to get favourable special treatment, especially as the EU will *want* to punish the UK so that no other countries will try to break away any time soon.

Can't doesn't the Foreign Player rules be changed? I'm pretty sure FA rules and not a UEFA/FIFA rule.
The work permit thing is a UK rule, not an FA rule (you don't think the FA would voluntarily set up all the red tape to make transfers of possible superstars that would improve the PL brand more tedious?). And to change that would mean to allow sort of free movement, which is explicitly what the Leave campaign does not want to have. They can't risk an exemption for the Premier League, as then all other industries would follow suit and demand the same, and then the whole point of the campaign would be void.
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Post by Sri Wed Jun 22, 2016 5:46 pm

RWO typically talking a lot of sense.

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Post by BarrileteCosmico Fri Jun 24, 2016 10:04 pm

More comprehensive article: http://www.mills-reeve.com/files/Publication/a8160952-2df7-4d33-bb77-12781c308f33/Presentation/PublicationAttachment/09acac2d-e736-478b-a9f7-85fe27737051/216791132_1.pdf

At least English clubs will no longer be able to poach 16 year olds, not sure what Wenger's transfer policy will be from on though
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Post by Adit Sat Jun 25, 2016 5:01 am

BarrileteCosmico wrote:More comprehensive article: http://www.mills-reeve.com/files/Publication/a8160952-2df7-4d33-bb77-12781c308f33/Presentation/PublicationAttachment/09acac2d-e736-478b-a9f7-85fe27737051/216791132_1.pdf

At least English clubs will no longer be able to poach 16 year olds, not sure what Wenger's transfer policy will be from on though


What a massive cluster fk this brexit has created. Now they will have to play with English youngsters instead of the vast talent pool available to other EU countries.
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Post by Forza Sat Jun 25, 2016 5:21 am

This has created a massive problem for the EPL and for British players abroad.
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Post by S Sat Jun 25, 2016 6:23 am

On the bright side, it would at least mean investing heavily in grassroots football, improve the quality of English players which would help the national team. Don't know why everything needs to be looked at negatively.
This massive influx of foreign players has barely improved the quality of the national team. The only purpose its serving is marketing and the league is absolutely not a stage where it desperately needs that unlike some other leagues.
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Post by Robespierre Sat Jun 25, 2016 7:03 am

Effectively I underrated the matter .. Brexit happens exactly when Premier League is in its prime , and it's the league to gather the most number posslble of great foreign players
I feel FA never wants to give up this , and it will try to change nothing basically.
The greatest problem should be for UK players who want to play abroad ( anyway few want to leave Premier League, Bale was basically an exception )
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Post by S Sat Jun 25, 2016 7:17 am

Pound has already dropped by 6.4% against the Euro. Not sure by how much more its going to drop. Forecasters say its just the beginning.

Last year, a £30M transfer would be costing €42M. This year right now, a £30M transfer costs €36M. Exchange rates will no longer be seen as an advantage for EPL clubs. The FA can't do anything to control this aspect.
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Post by Jay29 Sat Jun 25, 2016 11:24 am

More comprehensive article: http://www.mills-reeve.com/files/Publication/a8160952-2df7-4d33-bb77-12781c308f33/Presentation/PublicationAttachment/09acac2d-e736-478b-a9f7-85fe27737051/216791132_1.pdf

At least English clubs will no longer be able to poach 16 year olds, not sure what Wenger's transfer policy will be from on though

I actually think this is a good thing. I'm all for foreign players in the league, but have always felt unsure about academy teams being full of foreign players. This happens partly because the home-grown players just aren't that good, but I also feel the big clubs have grown lazy over the years when it comes to producing talent - why work on home-grown players when they can sign much better educated 16 year olds from Europe or 18 year olds from South America?

Having said that, I don't think we'll see an end to this entirely. Transfer fee and wages are also part of the work permit criteria - it's possible we may see an increase in fees and wages for these players instead.

S wrote:On  the bright side, it would at least mean investing heavily in grassroots football,  improve the quality of English players which would help the national team. Don't know why everything needs to be looked at negatively.
This massive influx of foreign players has barely improved the quality of the national team. The only purpose its serving is marketing and the league is absolutely not a stage where it desperately needs that unlike some other leagues.

This is wishful thinking, though. Greg Dyke (current head of the FA) believes that the problem has always been foreign players blocking the path of home-grown players and genuinely thinks the reserve system is full of players like Harry Kane who just need an opportunity to shine (it's not). Now that fewer EU players are going to be playing in the UK he'll likely think the problem has been resolved.

The FA's manta as a whole has never been "let's make our young players as good as the foreign players", but rather "let's limit the number of foreign players to give our not-as-good young players more opportunities". And sure, players can get better playing consistently at a high level... but the level is only high because of these foreign players. That level will drop steadily as the effects of Brexit really kick in.

The Premier League won't like it all because this is damaging their product, but I don't think the FA would be too upset about Brexit.

And what I think will end up happening anyway is that instead of scouting for EU players clubs will now look for more Africans and Asians because they'll have a greater chance of meeting the work permit criteria.

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Post by Valkyrja Sat Jun 25, 2016 1:33 pm

S wrote:Pound has already dropped by 6.4% against the Euro. Not sure by how much more its going to drop. Forecasters say its just the beginning.

Last year, a £30M transfer would be costing €42M. This year right now, a £30M transfer costs €36M. Exchange rates will no longer be seen as an advantage for EPL clubs. The FA can't do anything to control this aspect.


That's actually good for football imo, as English clubs already have tons of money from that new TV deal.
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Post by Guest Sat Jun 25, 2016 1:48 pm

The foreign rule seems so arbitrary with the way they would automatically give some guys a work permit, but others had to jump through hoops of hoops.

Like I remember for african players, like Bertrand Traore of Chelsea, not being eligible because Burkina Faso was not rated high enough in FIFA(stupid rankings) when he played for them. Then in the same vein a guy who never played for his national team(Miyaichi Ryo), whose entire career to that point was having a rich dad and getting his ass kicked on NTV in the very first round of the high school tournament was given a work permit without playing for Japan at all just because.......reasons? I am still trying to figure it out.

The government should get out of it all together and let clubs use who they think are talented without having to deal with government interference.

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Post by Jay29 Sat Jun 25, 2016 2:04 pm

That's to do with the "special talent" exception that has seen a lot of young non-EU players play in the UK. Clubs present their case to a panel and most of the time it gets accepted, although based on what exactly we don't know.

For example, Arsenal were able to get a special talent visa for Miyaichi, but was unable to get one for Carlos Vela despite Vela being one the best players at an U17 Wolrd Cup.

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Post by S Sat Jun 25, 2016 3:07 pm

I think there are huge exaggerations regarding the potential ramifications it could cause to the EPL. The big clubs will do fine as they generate bucketloads of money. Foreign player rules shouldn't affect them in the immediate future. What this would do is encourage smaller clubs to invest the revenue they get from the PL to improve their youth systems, put more emphasis on local talent which creates a larger talent English pool as opposed to buying overrated foreign players from other leagues which is what is happening now. All the money is being directed towards buying foreign talent but opportunities are.not being created for English players at lower level clubs. They're just taking the easier route.
You're in denial if you disagree.

Regarding the quality of the talent, if Germany can invest millions to create an endless talent pool, England can too. Germany these days are associated a lot with their flair and fancy players (which would be pretty unthinkable say 10-20 yrs ago) is a result of their youth programme developed some years ago.
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Post by Great Leader Sprucenuce Sat Jun 25, 2016 3:24 pm

S wrote:What this would do is encourage smaller clubs to invest the revenue they get from the PL to improve their youth systems, put more emphasis on local talent which creates a larger talent English pool as opposed to buying overrated foreign players from other leagues which is what is happening now. All the money is being directed towards buying foreign talent but opportunities are.not being created for English players at lower level clubs. They're just taking the easier route.
You're in denial if you disagree.



I don't really disagree completely, but i do a little bit. Personally if the players were good enough they would come through regardless, i think it's just a poor excuse to use when there's enough top quality players being produced. So it's easier to blame it on Johnny Foreigner instead of accepting blame for what the real problems are.

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