2020 US presidential election

Let’s hope so. I really think the media finally succeeded in going after trump. The BLM (which I support the peaceful protests 100%) movement has made him look bad. His one saving grace was the economy which tanked early due to corona isn’t there anymore. People are tired of his shit. Only his vocal supporters support him now.

Let’s hope polls don’t give democrats a false sense of security.

Vote.

Didnt even realize tuesday was election day in Georgia.

First election since summer of 2008 that I missed..Oops.

I love these diagrams lmao and how they present race: the white race vs the non-white

While the presidential election is important, I'd like to shed light on something that is just as, if not more important, than that. The down ballot Senate races.

Here's some info:

- 35 Senate seats are up for re-election but there are 4 specific races that are absolutely critical for Democrats to win: Arizona, Colorado, Maine, and North Carolina.

- As it stands right now, the seat up for grabs in Arizona is currently held by Republican Martha McSally, who is serving the rest of John McCain's term, which is why it's up this year. She is currently losing in the polls to Democrat challenger Mark Kelly.

- Republican Cory Gardner holds Colorado's seat that's up this year and he's losing by 13 points to Democrat challenger (and former Governor) John Hickenlooper.

- Republican Susan Collins holds the up-for-grabs seat in Maine right now, but she's losing by 2.5 points (inside margin for error) to Democrat challenger Sara Gideon.

- In North Carolina, incumbent Republican Tom Tillis is basically tied with Democrat challenger Cal Cunningham. It's the toughest of the 4 to win right now though North Carolina remains essentially a purple state.

Basically - Dems must win at least 3 of these seats. This is contingent on all of the other races going the way they are expected to go (i.e no upsets). That's what makes these 4 so important.

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About the upsets.

These are considered the icing on top of the cake if Dems win 3 of the 4 battleground seats above. Winning even 1 of these seats below means it's a good night. More than that and Dems can not only flip the Senate, but begin building a clear advantage to keep it for the foreseeable future. Here are those potential upset races:

Montana - Steve Bullock (D) vs Incumbent Steve Daines (R)
Iowa - Theresa Greenfield (D) vs Incumbent Jodi Ernst (R)
Kansas - Dr. Barbara Bollier (D) vs Multiple GOP Candidates (seat vacant)
Georgia - Jon Ossoff (D) vs Incumbent David Perdue (R)
Texas - Democrats M.J Hegar and Royce West vs Incumbent John Cornyn (R)
Alabama - Incumbent Doug Jones (D) vs Multiple GOP Candidates
Kentucky - Katie McGrath (D) vs. Incumbent Mitch McConnell (R)
South Carolina - Jaime Harrison (D) vs Lindsey Graham (R)

Polling on all of these races is either too old to be accurate or still very scarce given how early it still is in the season. As it stands right now, the only seat the Democrats have a definitive shot at is Montana's with Bullock, who is also the outgoing governor. There is optiimism about Maine, Iowa and Georgia as well. The real coups would be Kentucky and South Carolina, given how powerful McConnell and Graham both are right now. Both are looking over their shoulders right now.

About Georgia, super important to point out that both of the state's senate seats are up for grabs this year, something that hasn't happened in who knows how long. Ossoff vs Perdue is the "regular" election while Republican Kelly Loeffler (who was appointed to the seat to replace Johnny Isaakson) will face the winner of the Democratic runoff in January. There is a chance for Democrats to flip both seats here, which would be huge.

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And then there are the absolute longshots, the states Democrats have no realistic chance of winning, but can still hope. That's - Idaho, Wyoming, South Dakota, Nebraska, Oklahoma, Arkansas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Tennessee and West Virginia. Alaska is perhaps the Democrats best shot at winning one of these states. That's about it though. If they end up flipping one of these seats, that's indicative of a historic night.

So as much as this is about Trump and Biden. It's every bit as much about what happens down ballot. For Democrats to have a real chance at having a historic night, Biden must not only beat Trump, he's gotta destroy him utterly. A narrow victory will likely result in Dems retaking the White House, but Republicans keeping the Senate and even flipping the House, which is not the result anyone blue wants.

Used this tweet for my source:

You might be wondering what's going on with the Senate and if we can win it. I've drawn up a quick and simple explainer for folks who don't have time to read through a bunch of electoral analysis. Here are three levels for Dems, from best to worst odds. (thread)

— Charlotte Clymer ️‍ (@cmclymer) June 12, 2020

Poll today showed the Dem candidate in Arkansas is only 2% behind the R candidate. Didn't actually read further because both Nate Cohn and Harry Enten didn't seem to be impressed by the pollster. Still, if that's even half accurate, Dems are in an amazing position.

We'll see what it looks like come election day. But right now I think Dems have to feel good

Great write up McLewis

Interesting article about how the American "liberals" are reinventing themselves once again, in a much more illiberal way:

https://taibbi.substack.com/p/the-news-media-is-destroying-itself

A lot of people thought Trump was a response to PC culture, and this seems like PC culture on steroids, wonder if this will help him?

I don't think it will help him now as it did back in 2016 because he stands for too many wrong things as a whole but I hope people realize that in the long run because that's one thing I agree with him about.

Although he goes about it the wrong way because he does more to divide rather than unite.

I really hope for the sake of all of us that Biden wins and brings Democrats and Republicans closer together. Because the bigger the divide, the bigger the descrution from the inside and we need more focus on the danger that is looming outside.

Also I wanted to add that this "PC culture on steroids" may be connected to the fact that these people who were in colleges at the time when that movement was gaining traction are now entering the workforce as journalists, editors etc. It's the side effect of the PC movement I talked about years ago already. It only deepens the polarization, and thats really, really bad.

Yes, We Mean Literally Abolish the Police

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/06/12/opinion/sunday/floyd-abolish-defund-police.html

However, when I read this^, it may actually help Trump.

Myesyats wrote:I don't think it will help him now as it did back in 2016 because he stands for too many wrong things as a whole but I hope people realize that in the long run because that's one thing I agree with him about.

Although he goes about it the wrong way because he does more to divide rather than unite.

I really hope for the sake of all of us that Biden wins and brings Democrats and Republicans closer together. Because the bigger the divide, the bigger the descrution from the inside and we need more focus on the danger that is looming outside.

Also I wanted to add that this "PC culture on steroids" may be connected to the fact that these people who were in colleges at the time when that movement was gaining traction are now entering the workforce as journalists, editors etc. It's the side effect of the PC movement I talked about years ago already. It only deepens the polarization, and thats really, really bad.

Biden won't bring Republicans closer because that is impossible. In a sane world, Obama would have done that. He was from the right wing of the moderates in the Democrat party, couldn't have had more of a centrist in the White House. But the Tea Party reigns supreme in the republican party by now, plus racism. It's insurmountable. Unless the Republicans seriously re-invent themselves, you will not reduce the disparity.

It's actually not that unlikely (governors aside). Democrats are expected to carry both congress and the presidency, if polls are to be believed

VivaStPauli wrote:Biden won't bring Republicans closer because that is impossible. In a sane world, Obama would have done that. He was from the right wing of the moderates in the Democrat party, couldn't have had more of a centrist in the White House. But the Tea Party reigns supreme in the republican party by now, plus racism. It's insurmountable. Unless the Republicans seriously re-invent themselves, you will not reduce the disparity.

That may be true. Another big factor that drives the polarization is the way media operates.

Remember several years ago there was harsh criticism with regards to faculties of education for low academic standards and possession by ideology. It all starts at the educational level, because young people are developing at that stage, and then they enter the workforce while being ideologically possessed which poses a grave danger especially if they end up holding positions of power or in the media, which influences public opinion by and large.

Thus I would conclude that most of these issues are already incited at the education level. For example, it's now unacceptable to have students "challenge their beliefs" and many preposterous other standards. Your personal feelings, largely dictated by the feelings of your group, justify even the vilest of actions. The narrative is always: victim vs oppressor and so the "illiberals" were born. They mostly emerged from arts and social sciences, needless to say: faculties that are very much dispensable and not as sophisticated as the faculties of maths, physics and such.

This article touches upon some of those issues: I'm a liberal professor, and my liberal students terrify me

It has perhaps gotten worse since 2015, mostly behind the scenes, and will continue to get worse. And as it gets worse, republicans will drive further away into their delusion as well. Equally dangerous, though. Man, people really are more stupid than you think.

"When you do testing to that extent, you're going to find more people. You're going to find more cases. So I said to my people: slow the testing down please." - Donald Drumpf


He actually said that

Teenagers subscribe by millions to a Trump rally... but they didn't attend

So my teen daughter, who has Snapchat and TikTok accounts, walked in and said to me "So did it work? Did the teens get all the tickets to the Trump rally?" She's known about this ALL WEEK and I just learned this an hour ago... https://t.co/lcsB50zzoR

— Roberto Quinlan (@r_quinla) June 21, 2020

Lmaoo great troll

NYT/Siena (AKA the best polling you can get)

Biden +14 vs Trump

States
Michigan +11
Wisconsin +11
Pennsylvania +10
Florida +6
Arizona +7
North Carolina +9

Margin of sampling error = 4.1-4.6%

It's not voting day yet, but yikes, Trump is in huge trouble. The only bad thing to say is I can't imagine that things get any worse than this, so he'll probably improve as we get closer to election day

it's looking like no matter who the democrat candidate was trump would've been in the same amount of trouble

The election is certainly a referendum on Trump more than it is anything else, just like 2018. And just like 2018, things aren't good for Trump

Are there any decent republicans left? Decent like McCain was. Trump has really done a lot of damage and it'll be tough to recover

Myesyats wrote:Are there any decent republicans left? Decent like McCain was. Trump has really done a lot of damage and it'll be tough to recover

The closest we have on a national level is probably Romney

I am absolutely dead



Sasha Baron Cohen infiltrated “The Washington State Three Percenters” — a right-wing militia organisation in Washington state. A last-minute big donor paid to sponsor the event, and hire security... And then that security kept the organizers from getting on stage to stop Cohen.

Guy is a national treasure

SACHA BARON COHEN CAME BACK IN A DIFFERENT DISGUISE FOR THE INTERVIEWS OF THE ORGANIZERS TRYING TO FIGURE OUT WHAT HAPPENED. pic.twitter.com/o6Ywhsiuct

— Jan Hofdijk (@JanHofdijk) June 28, 2020

Fucking legend.

I got two questions and would appreciate some informative (if not in depth) replies.

#1. Would Biden (if he does get elected) be much different than Trump? Yes, I guess no one can be as obnoxious as Trump, but in terms of issues which matter, would there be much difference?

#2. Why the likes of AOC etc. running for re-elections after just TWO years? The tenure is Four years, right???

TIA

1. Yes he would be very different, although the particular answer depends on which issues you care about. In terms of international relations I imagine he will continue a policy of Chinese containment while being closer to the traditional US allies, so not much change.

2. In the US congresspeople run every 2 years, it's one of the reasons they depend on lobbyists so much