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Who will take the elections?

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Total Votes : 35
 
 

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Post by BarrileteCosmico Wed Nov 07, 2012 8:05 pm

Yuri Yukuv wrote:Well Im not against all money printing to be honest, Im a big fan of QE3 for example. I think money printing should be done only when its very transparent, when its goals are well targeted and it has objective (QE3 did much of that) and it also has to accompanied by structural change. This didnt happen first two times as the money got clogged with most investors (banks and corps) not spending it the cash is still there, only money that seeped through was to basic consumer staple areas like food and energy (not in official inflation estimates). They didnt spend it because the structural environment sucks, as soon as economy strengthens the money will rush in and cause a good amount of inflation. Inflation itself is not that bad, but when it happens this way it will cause missalocation of capital and well be back in trouble again.

My point is that money printing is a great weapon but Obama wasnt able to use it properly because of his persona biases against business, in long term this will backfire against us.
So you're disappointed that Obama didn't get the fiscal act together while monetary policy was otherwise mostly sound? I could agree with that. There's a number of policies that could've/should've been taken to alleviate the housing crisis on the fiscal side that could've helped before QE3, of which I'm also a fan but only if it's a stepping stone to other more output oriented policy decisions. The large number of unused reserves is largely due to interest on reserves though - which was never very clear to me as to why they exist in the first place.

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Post by zizzle Wed Nov 07, 2012 8:15 pm

Libertarianism only works in theory, just like comunism. If you think the "invisible hand" can regulate everything then i have to disagree. Take the auto industry for example, during the 50's-70's American cars were the worse when it comes to safety, but did that stop Americans from buying them ? if it wasnt for regulations your fuel tank would still explode everytime someone bumps you from behind. Actually, until this day, Automakers still measure the cost of potential lawsuits against the cost of a recall, which makes our safety a metter of profit and loss.

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Post by Yuri Yukuv Wed Nov 07, 2012 8:19 pm

Swanhends wrote:I'm a registered Independent for what its worth, but I just don't see how Libertarianism would work in a practical sense...I would go back to my quote earlier

Everyone loves Libertarianism until theres a natural disaster, or their bank collapses, or theres some other crisis...

"There are no atheists in foxholes" is the religious version of the argument "There are no libertarians in a crisis/disaster"

I also think it gives humans in general too much credit...What do you do as a libertarian society when people eventually fall behind? Whether through their own laziness/incompetence, or through no fault of their own...what do you do?

Leave them behind? How long does that last? How stark can the gap between rich and poor grow before we wind up with a literal revolution on our hands? And if you're answer is "Of course not, we need to help them" - well then aren't you already straying from libertarianism?

Libertarianism is fantastic if you can trust everyone to be responsible...
Maybe I just have a low opinion of humans, but I don't....not even close

Edit: Those werent rhetorical questions btw...genuinely curious

Well for me the biggest fear is the political class, the businessmen around them and having an army of dependents who cant survive without the state. This eventually results in one part of the country abusing and racketeering the other.

I believe in bottom up approach to life, pluralism and competition. I think decisions should be made at the closest possible point to the person effected which is why I dread the federal government on domestic issues.

Main issues for me are ending war on drugs, police brutality, gay marriage, patriot act, federal government non defense non foreign service taxation, entrepreneurship, rule of law, currency competition and non discretion in government decisions.

I dont mind unemployment benefits or the such at state level or even closer as I can monitor whats happening and have bigger say when things are not going well. I also believe that as a society we should really try to help each other without the state through private organizations and charity, for one I actually give a really big part of pay check every month to charity. I think our project is cultural before it is political, I try to help people learn skills and get over things on a personal level alot. I think its much more important and compassionate than just giving money to bureaucrat. I think evolution of our culture cannot come through the force of government but rather through organic means.

About banks and the inequality gap I really believe that in our economy which is service/manufacturing oriented rather than agricultural a big part of why there is inequality is inflation, interest rates and other facets of macro environment controlled by government. Its just matter of fact big equity owners get the money before working class does. I would like to see money supply being controlled more by rules than men so as things are clear for everyone not just those who can afford consultants and analysts. With regard to banks they are actually one of most regulated industries, I think that allowing each bank or group of banks to print their own currency and then the population just pay federal taxes with USD would solve most problems, government doesnt like this because it cannot practice financial repression. I think we need to minimize herd mentality and decision by people turn it into rule based decision making with transparency.

Disaster releif, foreign service, defence, interstate commerce, immigration, federal courts and implementing constitution should be main objectives of federal government. Welfare certainly not.

I feel if more young people learn more about what libertarianism really means it would really change things to the better, unfortunately the masses see libertarianism through the eyes of politicians and media who form a rentier class threatened by it.


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Post by Yuri Yukuv Wed Nov 07, 2012 8:32 pm

BarrileteCosmico wrote:
Yuri Yukuv wrote:Well Im not against all money printing to be honest, Im a big fan of QE3 for example. I think money printing should be done only when its very transparent, when its goals are well targeted and it has objective (QE3 did much of that) and it also has to accompanied by structural change. This didnt happen first two times as the money got clogged with most investors (banks and corps) not spending it the cash is still there, only money that seeped through was to basic consumer staple areas like food and energy (not in official inflation estimates). They didnt spend it because the structural environment sucks, as soon as economy strengthens the money will rush in and cause a good amount of inflation. Inflation itself is not that bad, but when it happens this way it will cause missalocation of capital and well be back in trouble again.

My point is that money printing is a great weapon but Obama wasnt able to use it properly because of his persona biases against business, in long term this will backfire against us.
So you're disappointed that Obama didn't get the fiscal act together while monetary policy was otherwise mostly sound? I could agree with that. There's a number of policies that could've/should've been taken to alleviate the housing crisis on the fiscal side that could've helped before QE3, of which I'm also a fan but only if it's a stepping stone to other more output oriented policy decisions. The large number of unused reserves is largely due to interest on reserves though - which was never very clear to me as to why they exist in the first place.

No Im not talking fiscal, im talking structual and regulatory. Fiscally I only had problem with money being spent on green energy and other ideologically driven projects at a recession well maybe I would have liked to see government employees becoming more productive and transparent.

In structurally I mean I would have liked to see more (de)regulations helping small business, would like to see more visas given out to skilled workers especially high tech/education, would have made it easier for shale gas exploration, more transparent government, breaking up of vested interests so as to increase competitiveness etc. I think every single step that could be taken to increase productivity, foreign investment and foreign talent coming here should have been taken. Unfortunately we saw opposite happen, ideology came before business.

Housing is not going to come back unless productivity, capital stock and competitiveness go up.
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Post by kiranr Wed Nov 07, 2012 9:52 pm

VivaStPauli wrote:
kiranr wrote:I just want to get a general idea from you guys who like Obama. Until now, whatever i have read (not much) has given me the impression that Obama is increasing regulations and taxes which in general does not bode well for the economy. So i just want to know if there is something that i have missed about his last term.

And here is where you're wrong. History has shown that rampant deregulation has lead to crisis after crisis. The dotcom and housing bubbles, as well as the Great Depression and Japans deflation can all be pretty much attributed due to neo-liberal deregulation and free-market capitalism with lack of oversight and security.

I'm not saying that regulation is a great thing in of itself, but you do need some regulation, and being blindly against all forms of government oversight is going to invite the obvious kind of abuse that actually did take place.

I though the Fed's artificially low interest rates was responsible for the housing bubble in the first place.

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Post by VivaStPauli Wed Nov 07, 2012 9:58 pm

It certainly didn't help, but it wasn't responsible. Lack of regulation and oversight made the entire bubble possible in the first place.

And that aside, artificially low interest rates are a classic tool of the Monetarian ideology, which is closely associated to fiscal conservatives, so that's what you'd expect to come from Republicans together with deregulation either way.
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Post by BarrileteCosmico Thu Nov 08, 2012 1:37 am

@Vivas: It's not lack of regulations but lack of competent regulators. The rules were there, it's just that the people who were paid to do it either didn't have the resources or the will to go in and look at what the banks were putting their money into. Not to mention rampant fraud made by banks issuing mortgages they knew would never get repaid.

@Yuri: When I was talking about the fiscal side I should've made it clearer that I was also talking about regulatory and structural issues, not just deficit spending.
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Post by BarrileteCosmico Thu Nov 08, 2012 2:18 am

Btw since we have now somewhat shifted the conversation to libertarians here's an interesting link:

http://www.economist.com/node/21541391

Which is based off this idea: http://www.ted.com/talks/paul_romer_the_world_s_first_charter_city.html


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Post by Yuri Yukuv Thu Nov 08, 2012 2:30 am

VivaStPauli wrote:It certainly didn't help, but it wasn't responsible. Lack of regulation and oversight made the entire bubble possible in the first place.

And that aside, artificially low interest rates are a classic tool of the Monetarian ideology, which is closely associated to fiscal conservatives, so that's what you'd expect to come from Republicans together with deregulation either way.


actually monetarism advocates the kth percent rule as opposed to what greenspan did when he had interest rates below the taylor rule, actually in germany they used a modified kth rule for quite a while.

The crisis happened for a number of reasons, i dont thin regulation was a big part of it. The lack of transparency/limited opportunity that caused the dot com bubble and then enron caused alot of capital to be missoalocated to mortgages as they were considered real assets, further bush and his neo conservative administration mandated banks to make loans to minorities even if they were not credit worthy aka subprime crisis. Democrats were at forefron of this

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Post by free_cat Thu Nov 08, 2012 9:54 am

The biggest thing that America should tackle is their health care.
Currently, America spends 16% of their GDP in health, much more than any other country in the world in % and in $/capita. However, with that huge expense, they are not giving health coverage to everyone. American health care is extremely unefficient and unjust. I've never seen so many crippled people as when I'm in the US.
You want to save money? You want to increase equality? Make a universal public health care that spends 10% of the GDP. Better coverage for everyone and a big savings.
Unfortunately, not even Obama seems to be able to create a universal health care, although he wants some kind of reform of health care, does anyone know the details?
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Post by free_cat Thu Nov 08, 2012 9:57 am

No need to argue about economy Yury and BC. Don't know if you have noticed, but Economy is a pseudoscience. It has 0 predictibility capacity and sometimes can't even agree to explain the past. You have to concede that politicians are like a blind man when they are deciding their economic policies, so it's obvious that they will mess up.
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Post by RealGunner Thu Nov 08, 2012 10:07 am

Is the Fiscal crisis really worrying for the USA citizens ? What impact will it have on them ?

Has obama said anything about medicare ?
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Post by Forza Thu Nov 08, 2012 10:48 am

RealGunner wrote:Is the Fiscal crisis really worrying for the USA citizens ? What impact will it have on them ?

Has obama said anything about medicare ?
Yes, if they don't fix the 'fiscal cliff' situation by the end of the year, the country will instantly go into recession. That's how bad it is.

Obama introduced universal healthcare (some 40 million people had nothing before then). Romney would've got rid of it, if elected (because it's a socialist policy, blah, blah, blah). Fortunately, those poor people will get the care they need now.

More info: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Patient_Protection_and_Affordable_Care_Act

Obama's election has spared America from going into the dark ages as far as I'm concerned. I'm glad that they have given him 4 more years to fix decades worth of socio-economic problems.
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Post by BarrileteCosmico Thu Nov 08, 2012 6:27 pm

free_cat wrote:No need to argue about economy Yury and BC. Don't know if you have noticed, but Economy is a pseudoscience. It has 0 predictibility capacity and sometimes can't even agree to explain the past. You have to concede that politicians are like a blind man when they are deciding their economic policies, so it's obvious that they will mess up.
Lol no they are not. I 100% disagree with you, but it sounds like whatever I say will not change your mind, so let's just leave it at that Razz
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Post by free_cat Thu Nov 08, 2012 10:29 pm

BarrileteCosmico wrote:
free_cat wrote:No need to argue about economy Yury and BC. Don't know if you have noticed, but Economy is a pseudoscience. It has 0 predictibility capacity and sometimes can't even agree to explain the past. You have to concede that politicians are like a blind man when they are deciding their economic policies, so it's obvious that they will mess up.
Lol no they are not. I 100% disagree with you, but it sounds like whatever I say will not change your mind, so let's just leave it at that Razz

What has economical "science" predicted 100% accurately? I'm fed up of hearing economists fail every month, yet they are all the time on TV and radio. They could hire an astrologer and wouldn't do much worse.
Economists don't even agree if the New Deal was good or bad for economy. That's how bad is economy as a science.

But I'd love to hear reasons why I should change my mind. I've studied lot of economy and I can agree that some very basic macroeconomic principles are scientific and predictive, but generally economy is in shambles as a science.
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Post by CBarca Thu Nov 08, 2012 11:01 pm

BC is going to lecture Free on Economics?

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Post by VivaStPauli Fri Nov 09, 2012 1:39 pm

So... Americans... Are you communist yet?
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Post by Swanhends Fri Nov 09, 2012 1:45 pm

VivaStPauli wrote:So... Americans... Are you communist yet?

Laughing

It was bad enough that people said stupid shit like that before his first term...but just from a logic perspective, how did people jump through the mental hoops necessary to make that work after he completed his first term and nothing to that effect occurred?

"We haven't become communist yet, but I think his first term was just a misdirection to aimed at deceiving us, and then he would REALLY implement his secular-progressive-communist-socialist-radical agenda in his 2nd term!"
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Post by VivaStPauli Fri Nov 09, 2012 1:57 pm

Well he is a communist nazi. So it was obvious.

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Post by Swanhends Fri Nov 09, 2012 2:12 pm

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Post by BarrileteCosmico Fri Nov 09, 2012 8:11 pm

Free I'll reply when I'm feeling less lazy, I'm having an incredibly unmotivated day Razz
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Post by VivaStPauli Fri Nov 09, 2012 9:52 pm

I found a fun little opinion piece on the election from monday before the election. It's by Jacob Augstein, an influential German journalist, and SPIEGEL head honcho.

Because context is a nice thing: he's center-left, a moderate social democrat. Or, in American context, a raging commie.

He's written a rather venomous opinion piece on American democracy and capitalism. I don't wholeheartedly agree, but it is an interesting read, and it's in English.

So maybe some people want to know the Europena perspective, here it is:
http://www.spiegel.de/international/world/commentary-total-capitalism-and-the-downfall-of-america-a-865437.html

There is a rebuttal from a collegue of his as well, I'll post the link later.
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Post by Yuri Yukuv Sat Nov 10, 2012 8:28 am

I loved this comment to the article

As an American living in Europe, I can tell you that Augstein makes the same mistake about America that almost every European, especially those of the German speaking countries, make. That is, they have a profound misunderstanding of separation of powers and the system of checks and balances in the U.S. As a result of this misunderstanding, they simply cannot make any sense of things that happen in the U.S., and therefore jump to the easy conclusion that the U.S. must be dysfunctional.

Let's just take one of Augstein's many examples:

"The United States Army is developing a weapon that can reach -- and destroy -- any location on Earth within an hour. At the same time, power lines held up by wooden poles dangle over the streets of Brooklyn, Queens and New Jersey."

Augstein, like most German's imagine that the U.S. is ruled from a central authority in Washington D.C. (most imagine this to be the President of the USA). Germans and Austrians can't help thinking this way because this is how their own countries are organized, i.e., in a very hierarchical political system, with a powerful leader at the top that calls all the shots. They fail to understand that in the American federal system, the federal government in Washington D.C. DOES NOT rule the states, and that the states are politically independent and sovereign entities.

In Germany, the federal government is supreme. It calls all the shots and is headed by one single person, the Chancellor, that wields both executive and parliamentary power. The German federal government is responsible for almost all important aspects of German life. The German mind therefore, simply CANNOT understand or comprehend, that the American federal government has no say in the domestic affairs of the State of New York. Germans imagine that the President of the United States, and by extension, the government of the United States is somehow responsible for the dismal state of the power lines in Brooklyn. Hence the constant criticism of the "United States" by German intellectual.

I spend a lot of time here explaining to my German and Austrian friends the strict separation of powers in the United States. I explain how the federal government is a distinct political entity from the states, and that the US Constitution guarantees the states autonomy in all areas not explicitly ceded to the federal government. I try to explain to them that the federal government's power is severely restricted by the constitution and that it's only responsible for foreign policy, currency, postal system, patents, national defense and trade between the states. All other areas of responsibility belong to the states.

The federal government therefore has absolutely nothing to do with the cities of New York. If Augstein has a complaint about the power lines in Brooklyn, the proper venue to vent this complaint is the government of the State of New York, not the government of the United States. Similarly, the government of the United States has exclusive rights to conduct foreign policy. If has the right to develop new weapons and no U.S. state can object. The United States government has its own budget, which differs entirely from the budget of the State of New York. There is no overlap.

To blast the United States therefore, for the condition in Brooklyn is like someone complaining to the European Union about the ghettos of Paris. Apples and oranges.

But then again, hating the U.S. is a favorite pastime of German intellectuals nowadays. Augstein delights in the destruction of America by "Total Capitalism", however he conveniently forgets that it was Germany that destroyed the world. Twice. It was America, with it's "Total Capitalism" rescued and rebuilt Europe and it's the capitalist American military, funded by capitalist American taxes, that continues to safeguard Europe's security and prosperity. It is America that does all the dirty, back-breaking work around the globe that Europeans consider themselves too refined and civilized to undertake. Let's not forget that almost all the world's current major problems are a direct result of Europe's adventures of the 19th century.

These facts are far too painful for German intellectuals to ponder. It's much easier, and more satisfying, to point the finger at America. Bad, bad America!

As another American that lived in europe I have the same sentiment
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Post by VivaStPauli Sat Nov 10, 2012 1:17 pm

Also a rebuttal to Augstein, and probably agreeing with Yuri and the commenter he quoted:
http://www.spiegel.de/international/world/commentary-on-why-germans-want-america-s-downfall-a-866153.html

That being said I think the above comment still isn't quite right, and I'll elaborate, but I got a coffee date in like half an hour and need polish my penis.
If there's time I'll explain what I meant, if not I'll do it tonight. For the record, I don't agree with Augstein either.
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Post by RedOranje Sat Nov 10, 2012 6:14 pm

Please do NOT take the time to explain what you mean by "Polishing your penis," thanks.
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Post by Potential Sat Nov 10, 2012 7:05 pm

RedOranje wrote:Please do NOT take the time to explain what you mean by "Polishing your penis," thanks.

No please do, I am interested...

OT: So, how long till the next war searching for WMD occur?
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