The Season Ahead

Posting this early since I had it all written up. With a good amount time left in the transfer window, a lot of this can and will change, but I think we can start discussing what our hopes and expectations are this season are since the majority of our business is complete and we're not long away from the start of the season.

If and when more transfers are made, I'll revise parts of this.

The Squad

Arsenal’s squad is large and experienced, something that wasn’t the case three or four seasons ago. Back then, it was the norm for young players, ranging from their late teens to early twenties, to be playing regularly; the likes of Kieran Gibbs, Denilson, Alex Song, Jack Wilshere, Abou Diaby, Theo Walcott, Samir Nasri and even Cesc Fabregas. Money was tight, and as much as everyone wanted an experienced, high quality player to get us up to the next level, it just wasn’t viable at the time.

How times have changed. Following on from the £42.5mil signing of Mesut Ozil, Arsenal spent £32mil on Alexis Sanchez, who’s just one of four new signings this summer that cost the club upwards of £60mil. The highest outlay before then was around £55mil back in the summer of 11/12, and that was funded by the sales of Fabregas and Nasri. This time, Arsenal have had to sell nobody. It’s refreshing.

UPDATE: Was refreshing. We’ve now reverted to type by ignoring clear squad deficiencies and are, once again, going into season handicapped. Arsenal have essentially left their business unfinished for reasons we can’t fathom.

UPDATED UPDATE: Made a deadline day signing. Business still unfinished.

Arsenal now have both quality and depth, especially in midfield and forward areas. If Aaron Ramsey, Mesut Ozil and Alexis Sanchez aren’t available, we can call upon the talents of Jack Wilshere, Tomas Rosicky and Oxlade-Chamberlain. Alternatively, there’s Santi Cazorla, Lukas Podolski and the returning Theo Walcott. Or how about Joel Campbell, joining up with the squad for the first time since signing three years ago? It’s a ridiculously talented and diverse set of players that give Arsenal a wealth of options.

Questions still remain over that central striking role, however. The club couldn’t obtain that top level striker everybody craved, so Olivier Giroud will continue as first choice. There’s not an awful lot wrong with that. Giroud has his limitations, but has proven he’s good enough to lead the line with 22 goals last season. Beyond him, however, there are concerns about the ability of Yaya Sanogo, while it’s unknown if Alexis is suited to the role. Likewise for our fourth option, Joel Campbell. No doubt we’d be sorted here if these players perform in the role, but it wouldn’t be surprising if, come the January window, we’re all begging for a striker again.

UPDATE: We didn’t need to wait until January.

UPDATED UPDATE: Welbz has come to save us from Sanogo. I don't who will save us from Welbz, though.

Moving on to the keepers and backline, Arsenal have had to replace three outgoing players and have, arguably, improved upon those players in the process. Fabianski and Sagna, who both departed after their contracts expired, were replaced by David Ospina and Mathieu Debuchy, while Carl Jenkinson, farmed out to West Ham for the season, was replaced by the promising Calum Chambers. Two experienced internationals, plus one of the brightest defensive prospects in the country isn’t bad at all. Meanwhile, the core of Szczesny, Mertesacker, Koscielny and Gibbs, and their able deputies Vermaelen and Monreal, has been retained.

UPDATE: Vermaelen’s gone and hasn’t been replaced. Typically, we are now a player short here and an injury away from being down to the bare bones. I don’t know about the rest of you, but I can’t wait until we travel to Anfield, Stamford Bridge or the Etihad with a centre back pairing of Chambers and Monreal.

If there’s one problem area, then it’s in defensive midfield. We’ve been calling for a proper holding player since 2008, when Gilberto, Flamini and Lass Diarra all left and we were treated to three years of the amazingly athletic and dominant Denilson and four years of Cesc-wannabe Alex Song. Mikel Arteta has done an admirably good job the last three seasons, but between him and Flamini, Arsenal a little short of quality here, and really, the first team and squad isn’t complete until we finally splash some cash here. Having said that, another season of Arteta is infinitely preferable to a season of Jack Wilshere attempting to defend and resist the urge to run into people.

UPDATE: Another year gone by without us signing a defensive midfielder. Wenger has something against defensive midfielders.

Who Plays Where?

This isn’t a particularly hard question since eight places in the 11 pretty much pick themselves right now. I don’t think many would dispute that our backline and midfield should look like this come the start of the season:


The real question is: who do we play as forwards? As I alluded to earlier, we’ve a wealth of options in those positions, thanks to the versatility of the players. The likes of Santi Cazorla and Alex Oxlade- Chamberlain can play on either flank or in midfield, while Alexis and Campbell can play on either flank or as centre forwards. Walcott and Podolski are right and left sided players respectively, but can also do a job through the middle. So who do we go with?

If you were to ask fans now, they’d probably suggest this as our best front three:



Walcott and Giroud have an established partnership and will both score and assist, whereas Alexis would take Cazorla’s free-role on the left hand, but add more pace and goal threat. It’s a potentially prolific front three, where Giroud occupies the centre backs while Walcott and Alexis make those runs from out-to-in and behind opposition defences. Most importantly of all, it gives Mesut Ozil much needed penetrative movement up front.

There has, however, been some suggestions that this could be our front three:



Wenger seemingly considers the Chilean amongst his options for the central role, but he’s unproven there. The central role he plays for Chile and played for Udinese was a support striker role where he played off another centre forward. The same effect could be replicated with Walcott’s tendency to occupy central positions, though doing so would narrow Arsenal’s attack, especially with Cazorla likely to drift inside. We saw last season the issues of having a narrow attack, and how it made us a less dangerous side.

Alternatively, Alexis could play as a pseudo-false nine:



With licence to roam around more, Alexis could create more space for two penetrative wide players. However, there would be the issue of lacking presence up front, which could lead to us struggling against deep, compact sides; an inevitable occurrence when sides see the likes of Walcott, Alexis and Campbell in the team.

The option of having pacey, creative wide players is also tempting:



This would certainly relieve Ozil of some of the creative burden, though would, perhaps, result in less goals from the flanks.

How about pure pace?



I’d hesitate to use this front-line in games where we need to break sides down, but in games where we’re defending or need to keep it tight, this could be potentially devastating on the counter attack.

Clearly, there’s lots we can do with our frontline. Personally, I think this line-up would be our best:



Ramsey, Walcott and Alexis provide the threat in behind while Ozil and Giroud create. Between Ramsey, Ozil and Alexis, there’s enough guile there to break defensive teams down, while with Ozil, Walcott and Alexis we’ll be potent on the counter attack. Walcott is accustomed to protecting his fullback, while Alexis has a very high work rate, so this team can easily drop into a 4-4-1-1 for when it needs to defend.

Ultimately, the goal is to increase the team’s offensive potency while keeping the side balanced and defensively solid, and I think the above line-up can accomplish that though, as always, I worry about defensive midfield, and I worry that it may be lacking in power.

UPDATE: The above only applies if Wenger stops being stupid by playing a 4-1-4-1 with his best players out of position.

Hopes and Expectations

Winning the league does, of course, require more than having a good starting eleven, though having one certainly helps. Arsenal finished seven points off the title last season, which was much closer than previous seasons. With the squad we have, can we reasonably expect us to finish even closer?

I’d say yes. Of course, City and Chelsea have added to their squads, United have strengthened and I don’t think Liverpool will go away even after losing Suarez, but if Arsenal retain the consistency they had against the weaker teams from last season, plus perform better in the big games, then it’s a realistic target. If Arsenal can keep their key players fit throughout the season they may even go further than that.

It is, of course, a big if. It’d be unrealistic to expect Shad Forsythe to solve all our injury problems, and even with a deep squad, we would keenly feel the absence of players like Ramsey, Ozil, Walcott and Alexis were they to spend lengthy periods on the sidelines. In my mind, Arsenal will find it tough to progress beyond where we are if the injury problems continue.

I also think we’ll struggle if we don’t start winning in the big games. Our defeats last season were costly, not just in terms of points lost but also in belief and morale. It’s my expectation that we show a lot less tactical naivety and a lot more fight in those games; that we learn from our mistakes and improve ourselves. Mainly, if we start badly in a game or have any sort of period where we’re under major pressure, then the team needs to dig in for a bit and ride out the storm, not continue to play the same way and leave themselves open.

So as far as the league goes, I want us to challenge for the title, finish closer than we did last season and do considerably better against the bigger sides. That, for me, would represent progress from the previous season.

UPDATE: Without a complete squad and with Sanogo leading the line, challenging for the title is probably beyond us. Ah well, I didn’t want win the Premier League, anyway.

For the Champions League, I think progressing past the Last 16 would be an achievement considering we’ve not managed to do it for four seasons now. Our position as one of top seeded clubs is seriously under threat now, and if we can’t improve upon our co-efficient score we may well end up as second seeds before too long. Winning the Champions League is beyond us right now, but winning the group, getting a decent draw in the first knockout round and getting to the quarter-finals is not.

I never expect us to win a domestic trophy because it’s mostly down to luck of the draw, but with memories of Wembley still fresh in my mind, it’d be brilliant if we could win the FA Cup again. Capital One Cup would be nice but it’s not a competition I particularly care for.

Final Verdict

At this point, another season struggling for fourth place would be inexcusable and hugely disappointing. We’ve a deep squad with experience and quality that is, perhaps, missing a defensive midfielder for it to be as good as it can be, but should still be able to mount a title challenge, go on a decent run in the Champions League and win a domestic trophy. I don’t rule out winning the Premier League, but there’s some things that we still need to prove in order for us to win it, I feel.

UPDATE: It’s going to be another season struggling for fourth place.

My expectations for the next season are the same as Jay's, one thing I'd like to add is that I expect Wenger to learn from some of our big domestic games last season, we can't surely continue with such performances even if we win the rest of the games.

We're not done yet with the transfer window, I expect two more additions and if we do that, expectations will be even higher than they are now.

Very good read, Jay! I really liked the attacking options part.. Much to ponder over.. I will wait till the end of the window before judging though..

We have heard too much about 2 more signings, let's see if/when that happens..

Great post Jay.

You don't buy into A.Ws hints of experimenting Wilshere at DM?

With expectations I wouldn't say it would be inexcusable if we ultimately finish fourth.

This looks like its going to be an extremely competitive season with 6 very strong teams.. + Spuds who may surprise..

Being a realist I think 3rd is the expectation, with Utd recovering from a battering and Liverpool losing their star player, one would think we would be favourites for third.

But even then, Utd have a new and more than competent manager, have had a squad re-haul and wont have CL to worry about.

I don't mean to be a downer but I don't want to see people calling for Wengers head yet again if we don't get top two.

All I hope is for us to be far more competitive in big games, no more embarrassments, if we can carry on our form against weaker opposition from last season and add a few points here and there from top teams, then we will have every chance.

You don't buy into A.Ws hints of experimenting Wilshere at DM?

I feel it'd be a big transition for him and one that'd take a fair amount of time to accomplish. He's not the most disciplined player; he'll have to learn how to stay back and channel his aggression in more constructive ways. Not the easiest thing to do at his age.

I'm also of the belief that with the money available, we've got little reason not to buy someone for the position and very few excuses for experimenting.

I don't mean to be a downer but I don't want to see people calling for Wengers head yet again if we don't get top two.

A lot will depend on the points difference. Fourth is acceptable if, say, we were only four or five points off the top. But if we end up a good 10 or more points behind and spending the run-in looking over our shoulder then that's a different story.

Jay thoroughly enjoy reading your premeditated posts.

Got really excited while reading our attacking options. Though, I think you'd agree that it is better if we quickly settle on one frontline to establish solidity and understanding in the team. We can now and then revert to another frontline/formation if we find ourselves in particular situations which require a plan B. This will mainly be in the big games I presume. It might at the end of the day not pay off, but as long as Wenger tries something different for big games or when we're struggling to play our own game in big games which was the case everytime last season when pressure was involved in the game. Point being: trying something else is always a good thing and I'd like Wenger to do that.

On the two mentioned positions that we're still pondering about.
DM - you said you'd be okay with Arteta in that position again. And that's cool for the majority of the games in the league - against the lesser sides. But as seen last season in the big games. Arteta is an outright liability in the high pressure, fast paced games in which athleticism and a true defensive mind for the game is required and that's where Arteta falls short. I am still hoping that we get in a good DM to replace Arteta.
CF - Giroud isn't world class. He is not that magnificent goal poacher which we sometimes crave for. But as you said, Giroud is capable of coming up with a good goals return. So providing he stays fit and our alternative options work out when Giroud needs a rest then I see no problem here. I still have faith in Giroud that he can improve and become more potent in front of goal.
If things don't work out, then expect him and Wenger's decision on not improving in this position to be the scapegoat I guess. Even though, there are not a lot of options out there.

As far as expectations go for this season. I agree pretty much with what you said.
So much depends on our players staying fit. So if we can, for once, at least have a better season fitness wise then a lot is possible imo with this squad.

GoonerJay29 wrote:

You don't buy into A.Ws hints of experimenting Wilshere at DM?

I feel it'd be a big transition for him and one that'd take a fair amount of time to accomplish. He's not the most disciplined player; he'll have to learn how to stay back and channel his aggression in more constructive ways. Not the easiest thing to do at his age.

I'm also of the belief that with the money available, we've got little reason not to buy someone for the position and very few excuses for experimenting.

I don't mean to be a downer but I don't want to see people calling for Wengers head yet again if we don't get top two.

A lot will depend on the points difference. Fourth is acceptable if, say, we were only four or five points off the top. But if we end up a good 10 or more points behind and spending the run-in looking over our shoulder then that's a different story.

Agree.
Wilshere at DM doesn't rock my boat at all.
Don't get me wrong, I think something can always work out with thorough planning, but it's a bit of a stretch a lot of things need to be looked at if it is to work out.

We last won the league 10 years back. Just saying.

Well done, everyone.

All four transfers to date have either been approximate like-for-like in terms of quality, or upgrades. So the squad is stronger than before. Plus all these young players ... we can reasonably expect most of them to be improving. I think we'll see more from Sanogo this year, more from Ox. Also, Özil now has a full PL season and a World Cup to his name, so he should--let's hope--set the league ablaze with his passes to Alexis, Theo, etc.

The league competition will be very tough. I think there are five teams with very legitimate shots at the top 4, and Everton & Spurs (maybe) will be serious outside spoilers. Some hearts will be broken. That said, all I am looking for in the league is a serious title challenge and respectable displays against title rivals. Last season, we had the former, but fell short way too often (and too badly) on the latter. This season, I wouldn't put Arsenal as favorites to win the league (that'd be Chelsea for my money), but I don't think it is entirely out of the question.

Another cup trophy would be great.

In the CL, I think that winning the group (unless drawn with e.g. Real Madrid - is that a possibility?) is a priority, and from there, making quarterfinals at least, should be the target.

Basically, what it always boils down to for me is that the team plays in a way that I'm proud to watch. This has to do with style & aesthetics, sure, but also with effort and competitive seriousness.

Another 4th place battle will be absolutely disappointing for me. We've added £60m or so on top of the team that finished 7 points behind the League winners with only one major loss in the squad, and while other teams have added aswell, it is expected that we do much better than we did in the past few seasons. Last season was great but we need to really kick on, we're financially strong, what's stopping us now?

Fighting for a CL place is not good enough after spending so much money on the squad, Everton almost did secure a CL place with a bunch of loaned players, surely Wenger must do much better with such a squad as ours? It's about time we win the league again and go far in the CL as we used to when we weren't financially strong, there's no excuse for us now with this squad.

My Hopes are:

CL is also a bit dependent on the draw, not just our group performances. Saying that, I would expect us to have improved to among the top 5 teams in Europe, by the end of the window. That means, we should realistically be aiming to get to the QF and past it.

Another FA Cup would be good. It's imperative that we establish a lead in the number of FA Cups, and start catching up on the number of league titles.

Jay that was a good read.

I think this will be one of the hardest years in EPL, all our rivals have really improved and so have we. We can win the league and go far in the CL if we get our tactics right.  Every player on the team has to step up and score more. More importantly Giroud has to step up because it’s primarily his job.

I will be patient with Alexis as it is new league, but others have no excuse. Top 3 and FA cup would be a great season imo.

Three players are worrying me:
We need a big strong DM as Monaco easily over ran Arteta and jack.
1. Arteta
2. Wilshere
3.Giroud

Expectation:top 4 and not far off the top

most 2 important issues of XI haven't been addressed yet

and even if we got That DM i would feel our midfield is more suited to play contain and counter for big games than trying to control which be false dominance-passing in front of opposition
+as many goal threats in line up like Ramsey/Theo/Alexis etc that we field still the best chances in big games could be few and fall to Giroud who has let us down numerous times and cant see how it will change

Adaptation period will be tough for Alexis even tougher if we expect him to perform up top

obviously a bit of luck in fixture list could help too as we played some tough back to back away games in CL in midweek&then PL in weekend
domestic cup would still depend on how we perform against rivals

efficiency vs bottom half sides is key
did some research on that and if my calculation are rights:
last time any team dropped atleast 10+ pts vs bottom 10 was in 10-11 and last season ,quality of those sides was quite poor and we got 53/60 pts which was highest in that regard

but V Top Half
eventual winners have managed 1.98 pts per game on average from last 4 seasons
66% of total points gained
Arsenal,in the mean time,1.52[50.6%]

although since our team has changed a lot,its  last 2 seasons that matter

Spoiler:

so if we were looking at it from that point of view
maintaining record vs bottom 10
and getting better results @ home vs top 10

I expect us to improve on our fourth place finish last season and challenge for the title once again.Last year we made good progress in terms of consistency but fell short due to injuries and poor performances in big game.Our poor performances in the big games last season was not only due to poor tactics but also a mental block, the team seems to suffer from a lack of belief against the likes of Chelsea and City.
The interesting thing is last season we didn't lose a single home game in the league against any of the top four or top 6 last season, also looking at the fixture list we don't have any of the death runs we had last year so i expect us to do better this time around.I don't expect us to beat every team in the top four but i expect us to perform better and take a point or more from the likes of Chelsea or City, if we can do that and maintain the same level of consistency in the second half of the season then i will be quietly optimistic.

I will be happy with top 2 finish which is not impossible, a cup run ( Carling cup or Fa cup) and a semi final in the champions league, quarter final is just not enough in my opinion we can do better.
The likes of Dortmund and atletico have gone all the way to the final in the past, why can't we do the same.

Regarding the attacking side of thing, Giroud will probably be leading the line this season again but i think Arsene will rotate a bit more this time around with the likes of Theo, Sanchez, Sanogoal and Campbell all getting a shot upfront.Think Sanchez and Theo will play against the less physical teams, its good because it keeps the opposition guessing and makes us less predictable. I don't think everyone including the fans will be happy but this will be the case until we get that elusive world class striker (not Remy).

I don't know about you guys but I am concerned about the defensive side of things, we have lost Sagna who provided us some good defensive solidity while Mert has missed pre season and we are yet to sign a back up centre half (Vermaelen doesn't count).We were lucky last season that Mert and Koscielny managed to play such a huge amount of games. In midfield I Think Arteta will be fine as long as he plays alongside Ramsey in the pivot, without him he struggles badly.

Great Thread and replies. Fantastic to read such quality posts.


I will start by echoing what Usmanov said yesterday. We are starting a new era. What Arsene n Co planned 10 years ago, it's come to fruition and we have moved in a new era. A superior era. An era that will re-establish our place amongst the very best out there. And this is not an exaggeration because with the way our club is moving, these expectations are to be expected. The times we hoped for 4th place should be removed from our expectations because that was the old Arsenal which was struggling in a world that was ruthless and disproportionate. We survived because we had a manager who could lead us through those times while keeping our honour intact. But this new era means there are no excuses. We are financially amongst the very best. There is no player we can't get who is attainable as long as we want him. There is nothing we can't do anymore.

It's time for New Arsenal. A superior Arsenal. And A Superior Arsenal requires a new core of players who would lead us into this era. Sagna is gone, and Vermaelen will most likely leave too. That's basically all the players gone from the years we struggled. Granted Sagna helped us win the FA Cup and was a fantastic player for us. But it's better to go into the new era with players who would be with us for the good few years and are fully committed to Arsenal. We can now boast that we have the best CAM in the world with Ozil and have excellent wide forwards in Sanchez and Walcott. We have some great potential in the team with Chambers, Wilshere, Oxlade and Ramsey. While we have experience in Mertesacker and Arteta. Our squad really is complete in many ways. Is it amongst the very best? Don't know. It often doesn't matter if you have 11 world class players as long as your mentality is right. Atletico for example. And that mentality comes with the belief within the squad. The belief initiated by the manager and which runs across the players. Arsene always shared that belief but somewhere it was lacking. Maybe it was the mental block in everyone's head that we can't compete with the other big clubs. Or maybe it was just the players like Fabregas and Van Persie who were weak mentally. But it was lacking.

However it shouldn't be the case anymore. This coming season, it should be different. We won a trophy after 8 years. It should give the team belief and improve mentality. It should drive the hunger more. It should spur the team forward. With new players and stronger competition, the players should be more fired up. Because they need to understand and hopefully do understand that our time is now.

But as they say, with great powers comes great responsibilities. We can head in a new era with high expectations, but those expectations can also be proved negative. If the team underperforms, then the blame game will be fierce. Arsene won't have any excuse. The team will have no excuse. I hope they understand that. It's not to say that we think Arsenal should be winning the treble next season because that will be stupid. But I think I can speak for everyone and say that what we want from Arsenal is to give in everything in every single competition and avoid performances like against Chelsea, City, Liverpool etc. Stop being complacent at times. These are basic things really but these are also the things which are our downfall most of the times. Let's just hope with the better mentality in the team, we will do better in that regard too.

Not much to add to the squad discussion as Jay explained it pretty well. I just hope we can manage to get Carvalho in. Not that I have seen him play but if Arsene wants him at 30m then he must be good. A ST would have been great but there are not many available who would be an improvement on Giroud. Plus Sanchez could work upfront I guess so that's there to see. A CB when Vermaelen leaves. Not fussed who comes in there.

My personal expectations are

PL: Finish top 2. I know the competition is fierce and not even 80+ points could get us to top 2 next year but I really do expect us to challenge for the title. And avoid a dogfight for the 4th. Anything over that will be an improvement.

Cups: Hopefully make it past the R16 for once. Win either the CoC or FA.


It's a new Era lads. Let us walk into the new Era together.

I am not optimistic, after the horrendous way we ended last season (fa cup aside). We have the same crippling problems in midfield and up front. I expect fourth place, but not before the typical up down rollercoaster of emotions. Looking forward to the Arsenal Fan TV rage in the new year already   

what a wonderful, wonderful song Chumlum

will put on the vinyl right now

its got forgotten Stax legend Judy Clay on backing vocals too   

RG should be the spokesperson for the Arsenal board. That was an inspired post, and inspiring too

Wenger confirms Arteta #afc captain, Mertesacker vice-captain this season

Remember when Cazorla & Arteta gave that interview together, and Cazorla talked about how when he first showed up, it was instantly clear that players considered Arteta "the real captain"? It didn't come across as a slight to Vermaelen or anything, it was just as if it were something the squad tacitly acknowledged. Arteta is a leader for the group, including behind the scenes.

Would have been happy with Per as captain, too, but I'm honestly not bothered by Arteta getting the captaincy, especially if there is a graceful way to have him rotate a lot of matches with a powerful new DM signing.

Glad Arteta got the captaincy even if I preferred Per over him, Arteta was my 2nd choice. Arteta has pretty much been our captain in recent years and him continuing to do so makes me happy.

Great read

http://arseblog.com/2014/08/how-arsenal-have-been-shaping-for-201415/

Yeah read the article this morning - good read...

I still get the concern with Giroud personally.. Would Giroud have made that run Sanogo did for the second against City?

"As Joachim Low said during the World Cup; “players must be mobile nowadays. Static strikers do not exist anymore.” That seemingly spells bad news for Olivier Giroud who lacks that filibustering quality typically known in the English football lexicon as just “running around a bit.”

Completely agree with the benefits of being able to mix it up between 433 and 4231. That's the kind of tactical pliability that we have been accused of lacking in the past.