Assessing Real Madrid's Transfer Policy Change Post-2015

by The Demon of Carthage Sun Oct 25, 2020 10:00 am

It's been roughly 5 years sine Florentino decided to make a radical change to his transfer policy and invest in young prospects instead of well-established world beaters. At first glance, it would seem like the right thing to do given how inflated the market has become, but now as we look around at how the team has shaped up to be, was it worth it? Or was it a grave mistake?

The first screaming fact here is that the current team is not a CL contender. So clearly, Florentino has already failed in replacing his multi-champions league winning policy with an equally successful one.

But, since it takes time to build an elite team (especially if you're not going after already established talent), let's take a look at all the signings he has made over the last 5 years and see how many have actually become elite or have the potential of becoming elite:

1. Kovacic: had a lot of potential. After lack of playing time, he was loaned out and eventually sold.
2. Danilo: Failed signing. Sold.
3. Vallejo: Failed signing. Has been on a series of loans ever since he signed for the club in 2015.
4. Asensio: Failed signing.
5. Lucas Vasquez: Wouldn't label him a complete failure because he helped us win many tough CL games when he came on as a sub. Still, he's definitely not good enough.
6. Lucas Silva: Failed signing.
7. Odegaard: One of the brighest signings Florentino has made during the new transfer policy. Has definitely the potential of becoming elite.
8. Ceballos: Failed signing.
9. Theo Hernandez: Failed signing.
10. Vinicius: Has fallen short of the club's expectations. Definitely not a failed signing, but if he doesn't improve his decision-making and end product, he'll definintely become one very soon.
11. Rodrygo: Failed signing.
12. Courtois: Successful signing.
13. Odriozola: Failed signing.
14. Brahim Diaz: One of the brightest signings Florentino has made since 2015. Got a lot of potential and talent to become elite. We will see how he does at Milan.
15. Reguilon: Sold to spurs. Not a failure per say, but Madrid failed in getting the best out of him and wasted time on someone they later sold. So yes, a failure all things considered.
16. Valverde: Successful time investment. One of the best Madrid performers this season. Definitely has the potential of becoming one of the best in his positions.
17. Hazard: Signing a 29-year old for 100m just because he's in his last year of contract is not always a good thing. Definitely an established world beater, but he still hasn't showed Madrid any of his talent. A failure until proven otherwise.
18. Militao: failed signing.
19. Mendy: Definitely not a failure. He has got a lot of potential.
20. Reinier: on loan at Dortmund. Can't label him a failure or success in the time being. We'll have to wait and see.
21. Soro: Out on loan. Just like Reinier, too early to say.
22. Kubo: a lot of potential and definitely one of the brighest signings Florentino has made during policy change.

So all things considered, and out of all the aforementioned 22 names, only five have been a success. That's roughly and after rounding up 23% success rate. That's definitely not enough to build a competitive team in Europe.

I think Florentino, and if he really wants to stick to this policy, he has to at least combine it by buying at least an established player every year and not wait until they reach the last year of their contract to make a move.

by Pedram Sun Oct 25, 2020 10:37 am

I wouldn't call Militao a failed signing, since he's a CB he needs regular playtime to build confidence.

I agree that this policy has mostly failed but don't put the blame squarely on players when the club simply doesn't have the balls to trust them and give them adequate playtime to grow.

by FennecFox7 Sun Oct 25, 2020 1:02 pm

You’re being a bit harsh with asensio, LV, and the Brazilian kids as well as odri. And I rip into them regularly. Also, kovacic played some big games and was pretty important

by futbol_bill Sun Oct 25, 2020 1:54 pm

What a BS thread! First off your assessments are not only a way off but also a year, at least too early. Given covid, and loss revenue, you have to wait to see what happens next year. And given your previous views on Flo, you have been anxious for past several years to make such a thread. Just because a player is eventually sold, does not make a player a failure. No club ever has all signings work out. The idea is bring internal competition plus you do need more than 11 players on team. And just because a player is out on loan, or with another team with a buy back option, does not mean he is a failure or that club has given up on him. There is need to develop, particularly with the youth signings and Castilla not able to get out of 3rd level futbol.

As we saw yesterday, and yes we all know that you seldom watch team anymore, the same players that are shit one day, play well the next. Inconsistency, not necessarily a bad team. That’s what you should expect from a developing team. This year, they sold off all of the players that won’t make it with the exceptions of Mariano and Vallejo (who is on a loan in which they hope his resale value will increase). And just to correct your list, Soro is one of the sales. So we are left with a squad of vets and young promises plus Kubo, Reiner, Brahim, Ceballos, Reguilion in reserve, that have this year to demonstrate they belong. The objective for this year is to compete In all competition and well as evaluate who belongs and what holes need to be filled.

How come you don’t make a similar thread about Barca’s signing. You have repeatedly expressed admiration for their signing philosophy! I think you will be hard pressed to find any of their signings a success.

by The Demon of Carthage Sun Oct 25, 2020 3:05 pm

futbol_bill wrote:What a BS thread!

No, it's not.

First off your assessments are not only a way off but also a year, at least too early. Given covid, and loss revenue, you have to wait to see what happens next year.

Invalid excuse. All clubs were hit hard financially by the pandemic, but it didn't stop some of them from staying competitive with smart signings and competent managers.

And given your previous views on Flo, you have been anxious for past several years to make such a thread.

My criticism of Flo is valid, and it only started with the radical change of his transfer policy. It's not like I have a personal problem with him.

Just because a player is eventually sold, does not make a player a failure.

Yes, it does. The said player was signed specifically to be put to good use in the team, whether as a sub or an undisputed starter depending on their level. The fact that they were sold means they were deemed not good enough which renders the entire transfer a failure.

No club ever has all signings work out.

Of course, but when only 23% of your signings work out, you have a problem.

The idea is bring internal competition plus you do need more than 11 players on team.

And how are you going to promote internal competition when the kids you signed are either warming the bench or rarely ever play?! The current system is not set to promote competition. There are players who will always start regardless of their form. And Madrid is not exactly known for being great at developing young talent.

And just because a player is out on loan, or with another team with a buy back option, does not mean he is a failure or that club has given up on him. There is need to develop, particularly with the youth signings and Castilla not able to get out of 3rd level futbol.

The stats disagree with you. Most of the players Madrid sent out on loan where either sold or glued to the bench eventually.

As we saw yesterday, and yes we all know that you seldom watch team anymore, the same players that are shit one day, play well the next.

First of all, bravo on your baseless assumptions. I mean, it's not like I could always go back to watching the replay or something, right? But to address your point, inconsistency is one of the main reasons we are struggling. So I wouldn't take it lightly if I were you.

This year, they sold off all of the players that won’t make it with the exceptions of Mariano and Vallejo (who is on a loan in which they hope his resale value will increase). And just to correct your list, Soro is one of the sales. So we are left with a squad of vets and young promises plus Kubo, Reiner, Brahim, Ceballos, Reguilion in reserve, that have this year to demonstrate they belong. The objective for this year is to compete In all competition and well as evaluate who belongs and what holes need to be filled.

This is not what the thread is about. We're here to assess the players that the club has brought in since the transfer policy change after 5 years and see whether or not they should stick to it or change it.

How come you don’t make a similar thread about Barca’s signing. You have repeatedly expressed admiration for their signing philosophy! I think you will be hard pressed to find any of their signings a success.

First of all, I only said that I admire the fact that they don't seem reluctant to spend when they really want someone. That's it. But if you look at their signings, you'll see a long list of failed ones as well. And you don't see me making a similar thread about them because I'm not a Barcelona fan.

I hope you realize that I want Madrid to get back to being competitive again in Europe as much as you do. I wouldn't mind being proven wrong about all of this if they win the CL this year. I even hope that I'll be proven wrong.

All I'm saying is that with the way the club is going right now, I can't see us becoming a CL contender and staying consistent at the very top for many, many years like in the last decade. It's just my opinion and I'd be happy to be proven wrong.

by sportsczy Sun Oct 25, 2020 10:42 pm

There's also that Ukrainian goalkeeper... Lunin?

Jovic also.

To be fair, I think a lot of these signings were made with the HOPE they could maybe make Madrid... but young enough that the resale value would be there (except in Hazard's case). So it feels more like business in a lot of these cases as opposed to thinking any of these dudes was going to make a real difference.

The true signings meant to impact Madrid were:

Courtois
Hazard
Jovic
Kovacic
Danilo
Mendy

I would give these:

2 wins (Courtois and Mendy), 2 losses (Kova and Danilo)... and the rest are TBD.

by Perucho21 Sun Oct 25, 2020 11:16 pm

A lot of clubs have rich owners so I would think the pandemic was a non factor. Real Madrid doesn't have that luxury. Only funds we can use are funds we generate, which took a huge hit since fans arent allowed in live games and that's a huge source of revenue.

Then you add that fact that targets (Mbappe, Haaland) are very costly players and that is something to wait on.

by futbol_bill Sun Oct 25, 2020 11:39 pm

Has there ever been a club that won 3 or 4 CLs in 5 to 6 years and was able to instantly rebuild to win more CLs? Of course not!

The rebuilding takes time and the loss of 150M due to empty stadiums plus rebuilding stadium definitely limits funds for acquisitions unless you are a club with Russian mafia or oil nations money or totally inept financial management. And what have these clubs with that financial spending won?

You keep writing off the kids. The recruitment is simply a change due to the changing marketplace and fifa youth rules. It’s a crap shoot, hoping that some will pan out, meanwhile making money off of those who don’t.

I still say your assessment is too premature and obviously I don’t agree with your viewpoint.

Plus , bit early to say, but I believe these kids are good enough to win us la liga!

by Nivash Mon Oct 26, 2020 12:26 am

The Demon of Carthage wrote:It's been roughly 5 years sine Florentino decided to make a radical change to his transfer policy and invest in young prospects instead of well-established world beaters. At first glance, it would seem like the right thing to do given how inflated the market has become, but now as we look around at how the team has shaped up to be, was it worth it? Or was it a grave mistake?

The first screaming fact here is that the current team is not a CL contender. So clearly, Florentino has already failed in replacing his multi-champions league winning policy with an equally successful one.

But, since it takes time to build an elite team (especially if you're not going after already established talent), let's take a look at all the signings he has made over the last 5 years and see how many have actually become elite or have the potential of becoming elite:

1. Kovacic: had a lot of potential. After lack of playing time, he was loaned out and eventually sold. Can't see how this is a failure. He came in, performed a role, and when he outgrew it, he moved on.
2. Danilo: Failed signing. Sold.
3. Vallejo: Failed signing. Has been on a series of loans ever since he signed for the club in 2015.
4. Asensio: Failed signing. At the cost we bought him for, even if he does nothing else in his career, he's already paid it off. He's tapered off, but we got a decent return for the capital outlay, even if he hasn't turned into the world beater he showed promise of becoming
5. Lucas Vasquez: Wouldn't label him a complete failure because he helped us win many tough CL games when he came on as a sub. Still, he's definitely not good enough. He was never brought in to be a starter. He's absolutely fantastic for the role that he's intended to fill
6. Lucas Silva: Failed signing.
7. Odegaard: One of the brighest signings Florentino has made during the new transfer policy. Has definitely the potential of becoming elite.
8. Ceballos: Failed signing. This is less a failed signing than it is a mismatch with the coach. He performed well when given the chance but was never intended to be a starter, just a good player with potential, which is what he is.
9. Theo Hernandez: Failed signing.
10. Vinicius: Has fallen short of the club's expectations. Definitely not a failed signing, but if he doesn't improve his decision-making and end product, he'll definitely become one very soon. He's 20, it's extremely short-sighted to write him off as a failed signing
11. Rodrygo: Failed signing. At 19? With one season in a new league and country?
12. Courtois: Successful signing.
13. Odriozola: Failed signing. How? He was never intended as a starter. At best, a hopeful prospect, but far from a failure
14. Brahim Diaz: One of the brightest signings Florentino has made since 2015. Got a lot of potential and talent to become elite. We will see how he does at Milan.
15. Reguilon: Sold to spurs. Not a failure per say, but Madrid failed in getting the best out of him and wasted time on someone they later sold. So yes, a failure all things considered. Sold with a buyback. Besides, he was a youth team prospect that graduated and made the club money
16. Valverde: Successful time investment. One of the best Madrid performers this season. Definitely has the potential of becoming one of the best in his positions.
17. Hazard: Signing a 29-year old for 100m just because he's in his last year of contract is not always a good thing. Definitely an established world beater, but he still hasn't showed Madrid any of his talent. A failure until proven otherwise.
18. Militao: failed signing. He is 22 in his 2nd season, how is he a failure?
19. Mendy: Definitely not a failure. He has got a lot of potential.
20. Reinier: on loan at Dortmund. Can't label him a failure or success in the time being. We'll have to wait and see.
21. Soro: Out on loan. Just like Reinier, too early to say.
22. Kubo: a lot of potential and definitely one of the brighest signings Florentino has made during policy change.

So all things considered, and out of all the aforementioned 22 names, only five have been a success. That's roughly and after rounding up 23% success rate. That's definitely not enough to build a competitive team in Europe.

I think Florentino, and if he really wants to stick to this policy, he has to at least combine it by buying at least an established player every year and not wait until they reach the last year of their contract to make a move.

Having a youth focussed strategy by definition will have a high failure rate, but these ratings are knee jerk reactions that are actually pretty silly considering that they were either brought in for a role that they fulfilled, or are way too young to expect any kind of consistency, or are still in the very early stages of their career. Throwing money around just for the sake of it is not a better strategy, particularly not when the business aspect of professional sports is impacted the way it has been.

by Thimmy Mon Oct 26, 2020 4:03 am

The Demon of Carthage wrote:The idea is bring internal competition plus you do need more than 11 players on team.
And how are you going to promote internal competition when the kids you signed are either warming the bench or rarely ever play?! The current system is not set to promote competition. There are players who will always start regardless of their form. And Madrid is not exactly known for being great at developing young talent.

I think this is a very valid point. There's also the issue of players like, Kovacic, who in addition to not getting much consecutive playing time, was hardly ever used in his preferred position. Whenever I saw him at Chelsea last season, he was very good, easily among their best players in my eyes. No wonder he didn't want to return to us after seeing out his loan spell. Of course, that doesn't necessarily mean that he would be that good for us, but I believe the confidence from being a frequent starter, as well as being able to play in positions that he's comfortable with, gave him the momentum he needed in order to adapt, develop, and perform. From what I recall, he mostly only played when we had injuries. Guy even played as a CDM with the task of man-marking Messi in El Clasico, and he was still wet behind the ears at the time Laughing

I don't know why we bought him, when we weren't prepared to give him the environment needed to succeed.

We can criticize Jovic all we want for his failings so far, and who knows? Maybe he was never the right player for us. But he went from being one of the hottest prospects in Europe, to almost instantly becoming bench material. That's really not a good environment if you consider yourself good enough to be a starter. Especially, not if you're also adapting to a new team. Before I had formed any opinion of him, he was aleady watching our matches from the bench, and he was not injured. If we're going to put our faith in young prospects, we need to have a plan for how to make them develop under ideal conditions. This new business strategy of ours seems like it's been stuck in it's alpha phase since it started, from a sporting point of view. Many of these players should have been loaned out from the start, and that includes Martin Ødegaard. Even Mariano looked much better in a team that had faith in him. I don't know what you guys think, but purely from observing how our youth strategy is unfolding, it seems clear to me that we need to be more decisive in how we plan on developing them or easing them into the team. Sporadic inclusions and utility responsibilities is a plan that's destined to fail when you're dealing with players who presumably arrived with high confidence.

by The Demon of Carthage Mon Oct 26, 2020 11:20 am

I think there are a couple things I need to clarify here:

1. A failed signing doesn't necessarily mean that the player is a failure. It only means that their time with Madrid was a failure. There are many examples out there of ex-Madrid players who went on elsewhere and achieved greatness.

And when I say that they were a failed signing, it doesn't mean that the fault was entirely theirs or even at all. Some of those players were treated unfairly from the get-go (lack of play time, playing out of position,...). So I label the entire transfer as a failure because it means that neither them nor Madrid got what they initially hoped they would get from the transfer.

2. Please understand that I don't want Madrid to throw money around like Barcelona does. Our club is rich, but not that rich and can't possibly compete with state-backed clubs, pandemic or no pandemic. However, they need to spend their money intelligently.

Case in point, those 300m they spent the summer before last were enough to make the team competitive again, but they didn't spend it wisely and completely neglected the areas of the team that are in dire need of strengthening.

Then you have the second problem which Thimmy highlighted in the above post and which I completely agree with. If you want to commit to this youth policy, then commit to it. Don't buy young players and leave them in the cold. Use them. Play them regularly. Otherwise, when the day the old guards retire, you'll find yourself surrounded by underdeveloped players with no experience at the highest level.

Lastly, and this is something I strongly believe in, you can't build a competitive team by relying solely on youngsters. I mean, it could work, but it rarely ever does. A better solution would be to make sure you always have world class players in the most important parts of the pitch to stay competitive even during the crucial part of the youth's development phase.

by futbol_bill Mon Oct 26, 2020 1:16 pm

Again you guys are ignoring reality. In the past few years, they, specifically Zidane, were not doing what both DoC and Timmy have said. But look at what happened in last season’s reboot and this season. Everyone one on squad is being given opportunities to play and they have put on loan (good loan deals) or sold with buyback all remaining promises where they are offered good opportunities to play and develop.

I accept the criticism in past few years, but I believe they have now addressed the issue.

This question of how has the rebuilding strategy worked will be answered after next summer, in which we will see which kids survive (and thrive) and who do they sign to fill the gaps!

by Freeza Mon Oct 26, 2020 1:20 pm

One of the all time worst OP's

Out here calling 19-year old kids flops.

Hell, he's even harsher on Lucas Vazquez than I am. I wouldn't call him a faillure as a transfer. He's a faillure only because of how much the manager values him.

by The Demon of Carthage Mon Oct 26, 2020 1:23 pm

I'm sorry you feel that way and completely respect your opinion. But I stand by every single assessment I made. But just to correct you, I didn't call Vasquez a failure. In fact, I specifically said that I wouldn't call him a complete failure because he helped us win many CL games. All I said was that he wasn't good enough. I don't think I can be any fairer than that.

I hope I'll be proven wrong, but I doubt it.

by AlphaBeast Tue Oct 27, 2020 1:45 am

Best signings -
- Vini
- Thibuu
- Mendy
- Brahim
- Kovacic (even if he left)
- Valvarde

Failures -

Rodrygo
Theo Hernandez
Odriozola
Cebaollos

by titosantill Tue Oct 27, 2020 2:31 am

i get confused by what we consider failed signings. if you sign a bench guy for peanuts and the guy eventually leaves, i'm not sure that's a failed signing. its not like you moved the whole world to get him. someone like james, would be a failed signing. or even danilo cos of the fee. but some of these other names, its just meh; its hit and miss, tbh i even forgot some of em played at madrid, couldnt even remember their names. unless you expected major things from them or they came at huge market price, its more of just hit and miss than failed signing

and anyone still on the team, even hazard (who i'm not a fan of at all), can't be considered a failed signing yet as things can always change.....unless they start effing up all over the pitch come rain sunshine or snow every minute of every day

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