Futbol after the pandemic

I’m wondering how futbol will be after this pandemic. I think we all were assuming it would pick up right where we left it a month or two ago!

But it’s now obvious we will be in a deep recession and possibly a depression economically. There will be large unemployment, despite governments going massively into debt trying to shore up the impact. There will be bankruptcies both business and personnel. There will be less spending and likely some restriction on large gathering for a while, which in futbol terms will be stadiums not full.

Futbol teams are no different than other businesses. They have lost revenues that affect their bottom line and ability to spend.

The only comparison we have is the economic impact after World War II. It was a recession that lasted several years. I’m thinking that will be the case. In other words, things will eventually get back to the way it was, but it won’t be immediate and will likely take at least a couple of years.

So in futbol terms, does anyone see a reluctance to spend? Will it mean that the recent escalation of transfer prices to fall or level out? Will the TV deals hold up, or possible increase given people may be reluctant to go to stadiums but willing to watch at home or if pay tv, at the pub?

I'm 100% confident in predicting there'll be a drastic reduction in spending for every club not bankrolled by a country.

It's not just the revenue they're losing now, but also the revenue they'll lose when football eventually restarts as fans stay away from stadiums, either by law or by choice.

One scenario is that football restarts, but behind closed doors. That's a loss of gate revenue for all involved.

Alternatively, football restarts, and fans are allowed to attend, but people naturally stay away, or perhaps only those who have been vaccinated can attend. Again, that's a loss of revenue.

TV money will be interesting because I see it as a case by case thing. Sky Sports in the UK, for example, have said they won't ask for any money back due to games not being broadcast, but will instead look to televise even more games and get more value for its money. But other companies might have different approaches. That'd soften the blow at the elite level, but lower levels won't be lucky.

We might also see a higher number of out of contract players.

If football is played before a vaccine, I think it can only be in empty stadiums. A football crowd - with their singing and shouting = aerosols spreading - is one of the best situations for a virus to spread.

I don't think there's going to be much of a transfer window this summer. Players who become free agents this summer will probably struggle to get offers that match their previous wages. Players' wage cuts may have to go on to next season.

What happens with the big leagues' TV money is going to be very interesting. This could be a lifeline if matches can be played in empty stadiums.

Lower & smaller league clubs who need ticket sales are another matter. If they survive this season, can they really start the next one if it's in empty stadiums? I don't think so. Can you put crowds in stadiums this year, before a vaccine? I'm sceptical. If you can not, I don't see how leagues without TV money can play (unless the players agree to cut the majority of their wages).


If we get a working vaccine, that's when football will get back to normal, but just how big the financial impact will have been by then, it's anyone's guess.

And yet yesterday's news was Levy has to sell someone and has put a price tag on Kane at 227M???????

and Marca reporting Madrid plans to buy both Haaland and Mbappe?????

It will take a while for reality to set in and be accepted!

Another factor, you guys didn't mention is the general public will not be able to afford the stadium prices for some time. Not everyone will go back to work nor have the same spending capability.

Transfermarkt has predicted the entire transfer market has collapsed and that we won't see the recent high transfer prices for some time. They say all player values have dropped and they have estimated 10% for players born 1998 or later and 20% for all others.

Biggest question will there be any buyers and will there be a lot of players who contracts simply run out?

I think the net effect on the futbol market is going to be quite substantial. I wonder how some of the plastic fans on this forum are going to react when their favorite don't have money to buy the latest desire?

https://consequenceofsound.net/2020/04/health-expert-concerts-wont-return-fall-2021/
"Large-scale gatherings such as conferences, sport events, and live concerts won’t be safe to attend until “fall 2021 at the earliest,” according to Zeke Emanuel, director of the Healthcare Transformation Institute at the University of Pennsylvania."

So it seems likely we won't have open stadiums until the 2021/22 season

Next season will be bizarre

BarrileteCosmico wrote:https://consequenceofsound.net/2020/04/health-expert-concerts-wont-return-fall-2021/
"Large-scale gatherings such as conferences, sport events, and live concerts won’t be safe to attend until “fall 2021 at the earliest,” according to Zeke Emanuel, director of the Healthcare Transformation Institute at the University of Pennsylvania."

So it seems likely we won't have open stadiums until the 2021/22 season

Next season will be bizarre

Like I said in my post: how can lower & smaller leagues play if there's no ticket sales? I don't see how.