2018/2019 Premier League Discussion Part III

Jay29 wrote:

rincon wrote:What's up with this importance placed on xG like its gospel? We are back to whoscored ratings I guess.

There's a world of difference between a statistic used by professional companies and gamblers (xG) and a single website's rating.

xG is by no means a perfect stat and there's plenty that needs refining (the name itself, for starters, doesn't communicate entirely what the stat is). However, it has so far proved to be a better predictive stat than any other stat used in football.

There's a logic behind it that I agree with. It assigns a value to chance quality, which can then be used to assess how good teams are at creating high quality chances and defending against those chances. It follows that the best teams create a high volume of good chances and concede very few of the same chances.

So when you see a team like Arsenal who have an xG of around 30 but who have actually scored 42 goals, the suggestion is that Arsenal's attackers have over-performed and/or gotten lucky relative to the actual quality of their play. Over-performance on that scale is concerning because it's not sustainable. Luck runs out, form dips, and so on, and Arsenal reverting back to their supposed level is the difference between 3rd and 6th place.

xG isn't prophetic, but it's a useful measure of how a team is actually performing.

I don't understand how when seeing a 50% error (Arsenal) the suggestion is that reality is so skewed, instead of the model being inaccurate. It's a number counting the amount of chances being created and assigning value to the perceived quality of those chances based on average results. So it's inherently flawed. It removes finishing from the game. Finishing isn't luck or an accident, clubs pay hundred of millions for strikers because it's a skill. So is a "quality chance" the same quality for Icardi as it is for Pepe? No. An average chance for Ronaldo can be a difficult chance for Morata and as such chances should be weighted differently depending on the players taking them as well as the GKs trying to save them. But for that, you need a much more advanced model than the current one.

That's of course assuming that the way to quantify chances and assign quality is close enough to being perfect. A big assumption as a chance for Robben looks very different than a chance for Lukaku for example, but that's ok for the most part.

It's good for averages and for fun, but to pin so much importance to it in a place like GL it's weird. How much more valuable is it to look at shoots/goal than it is to look at xG? it's similar.

Jay29 wrote:It's not a kneejerk at all. The attack and defence are demonstrably worse than it used to be.

xG is lower this year than last year
xGA is higher this year than last year
Chances created are down
Chances conceded are up
Last time Arsenal conceded this many goals after 20 league games? 1966.
Arsenal have conceded more goals than Brighton, Newcastle and Crystal Palace
In terms of xGA, Arsenal's defence is currently worse than Palace and Watford, and similar to Southampton and Bounemouth
Current xG is 30.36, which ranks us as the 6th best attack this season. Current goals scored? 42, 4th highest. That's a huge difference and unsustainable, as recent performances have shown.

And even if you're not a fan of stats, watching Arsenal play this season should show you that their performances have not reached a higher level than last season. We've been luckier, not better.

Last season was laughable and hurtful on the eye on many occasion, this season we've already started showing small differences and we actually discussed this in the Arsenal section, seems though you forgot those due to our poor month (which has largely been caused due to lack of depth and defensive injuries/suspensions).

xG is just another stat, I don't place much importance on it.

Like most stats xG is potentially useful and there's nothing wrong with using it but the whole idea of judging a team based on a single stat is simply flawed.

rincon wrote:I don't understand how when seeing a 50% error (Arsenal) the suggestion is that reality is so skewed, instead of the model being inaccurate. It's a number counting the amount of chances being created and assigning value to the perceived quality of those chances based on average results. So it's inherently flawed. It removes finishing from the game. Finishing isn't luck or an accident, clubs pay hundred of millions for strikers because it's a skill. So is a "quality chance" the same quality for Icardi as it is for Pepe? No. An average chance for Ronaldo can be a difficult chance for Morata and as such chances should be weighted differently depending on the players taking them as well as the GKs trying to save them. But for that, you need a much more advanced model than the current one.

That's of course assuming that the way to quantify chances and assign quality is close enough to being perfect. A big assumption as a chance for Robben looks very different than a chance for Lukaku for example, but that's ok for the most part.

It's good for averages and for fun, but to pin so much importance to it in a place like GL it's weird. How much more valuable is it to look at shoots/goal than it is to look at xG? it's similar.

Finishing is a skill, and indeed, the xG model does not account for the quality of individual players. A difficult chance for Messi is more likely to go in than it is for a defender, for example.

However, it's overrated as a commodity. Strikers don't have to be good finishers to score goals. That sounds paradoxical, but when you examine a player such as Raheem Sterling, or many of the great poachers over the years, you start to realise that finishing is far less important for goalscoring than anticipation and positioning are. To use Sterling as the example: as a finisher he's not that good, but he scored 20+ goals last season and will get close this season. Why? Because he anticipates and positions himself so he can get easy goals. Aubameyang is the same. The bulk of any goalscorer's tally are so-called "easy" goals.

This is why chance quality is more important than shots to goals. Teams like City and Liverpool are successful for their ability to create easy chances for their attackers (how many times do City work the ball to the byline and cut it back for a mid or striker to tap in, for example? They do it nearly every game). Whereas teams who rely on a forward scoring from tight angles, outside the penalty area or any other high-difficulty goal will struggle more over the course of a season. Because even great finishers can't do this every game. xG merely puts a number to all this. It helps communicate if a team converted "easy" chances or benefited from luck or outstanding finishing, which is great - I'm not saying we can't applaud the skill involved - but not as sustainable over a whole season.

El Gunner wrote:Last season was laughable and hurtful on the eye on many occasion, this season we've already started showing small differences and we actually discussed this in the Arsenal section, seems though you forgot those due to our poor month (which has largely been caused due to lack of depth and defensive injuries/suspensions).

I haven't forgotten. I've been saying this whole time that our form has been deceptive and that we'd face a slump if we didn't improve... and that's precisely what's happening.

Okay, Morpheus.

I was a xG non believer earlier this season, during our winning run I was deluded enough to think that Aubameyang and Lacazette could maintain their ridiculous finishing stats, especially Aubameyang who historically fails to finish some easy chances let alone the chances he was finishing.

Now that the new manager effect has worn off we‘re seeing Emerys real Arsenal, which does not look that different to Arsènes.

I've tried to reason with Arsenal fans since the day Emery signed. Did they actually think a manager with a 17 year reign will get overturned overnight? When Klopp signed, best I expected was 5th and I still think he needs more time.

Arsenal fans expect too much and I'd go on to call them stupid. It's gonna take time, A long time. If you can't accept that might as well keep shifting managers expecting nothing.

Nishankly wrote:I've tried to reason with Arsenal fans since the day Emery signed. Did they actually think a manager with a 17 year reign will get overturned overnight? When Klopp signed, best I expected was 5th and I still think he needs more time.

Arsenal fans expect too much and I'd go on to call them stupid. It's gonna take time, A long time. If you can't accept that might as well keep shifting managers expecting nothing.

Emery is not Klopp dude, I trusted Klopp more when he was in the relegation zone with Dortmund than I did Emery during our „winning“ run.

Klopp won the league with Dortmund, Emery is a cup specialist and a big failure in most of his league campaigns. They are not even close.

You don‘t ever see Klopp play literally 9 defenders against one of the worst teams in the league. Emery did because his mentality is crap.

The man is closer to Juande Ramos than Klopp, I would say.

I understand, I'm sure. But what did Klopp achieve minutely important that warrants him to deserve more time than Emery as of now.

I still think any manager regardless of the squad needs his time to integrate his players and his system. I am not forgetting this lad winning 17 ELs, not many managers can do that.

Time for Everton to bring back Big Sam, imo.

What does it mean xG

@Robes

Carroll starting. West Ham might yet grab a Europe spot.

Ah Carroll.

Still remember when all of us LFC fans panicked at the 40 million pound transfer and tried to find the smallest hope or solace in it from his heading ability, small handful of goals, youth to even him being a northerner therefore at home at LFC.

What an utter disaster he turned out to be for us and as a player overall.

Based upon the standings, the West Ham v Brighton seemed the game to watch.
Along with Andy Caroll, the late great Sami Nasri is also involved in this game, OK not yet, he is on the bench, but he is there. Marko Arnautovic also making his glorious return and has been the best player in a lacklustre game. I would say denied a half decent penalty call, otherwise nothing really happening.

We are now 6 points from 4th.

Still impossible?

New manager bump for Chelsea is starting to wear off now, as I suspected.

They're pretty shit on paper. Definitely weaker team than us. We'll definitely finish above them and Arsenal, I think.

Granted we've played muppets since Ole came in. But I'm optimistic.

So United official again on CL race
6 points are recoverable
Who'd have expected this .I admitt not. Fantastic fight now

ffs Pogba missing an open goal after rounding the GK (not the best angle) but still

Look I dont want to dampen your mood but you are the only team in top 6 who does not have a double digit goal difference.
And you were really aggressive last time when I pointed out the similarities between you and Leicester. But you are 6 points off the 4th but also only 7 points away from a team like Leicester. So I think you should enjoy the football under Ole right now than thinking about anything else.

could OGS get the job full time. the team are playing the best football since fergie left ffs.

Arsenal had so many injuries but players are slowly getting back, Man Utd had Mourinho and now he‘s gone.

Both teams slowly improving but not sure what Chelsea‘s excuse is for the performances against Southampton/Leicester/Crystal Palace, they are not missing anyone important and they don’t have Mourinho to sack in order to improve.

urbaNRoots wrote:Arsenal had so many injuries but players are slowly getting back, Man Utd had Mourinho and now he‘s gone.

Both teams slowly improving but not sure what Chelsea‘s excuse is for the performances against Southampton/Leicester/Crystal Palace, they are not missing anyone important and they don’t have Mourinho to sack in order to improve.

chelsea lack a goal scorer. hazard gets goals in batches so you cant rely on him to win tight games all the time.

Newcastle - ManUnited (Mi.) 0:2 (0:0)
Watched the last 15-20 mins of this, Could have been 3-0 if Pogba had passed to Lukaku instead of trying to score himself. It looked like even Sanchez was playing well. Mourinho really did kill this team when he was manager, it is frickin incredible the difference now.

Bournemouth - Watford 3:3 (3:3)

Wolves - Palace 0:2 (0:0)

Huddersfield - Burnley 1:2 (1:1)
I guess the EPL party is over for Huddersfield, no surprise, they have the weakest team on paper again this season

Chelsea - Southampton 0:0 (0:0)
Really, Chelsea should be winning these games.

West Ham - Brighton 2:2 (0:0)
Arnautovic rescued West Ham after they went down 2-0 and he scored a quick double. West Ham really should be doing better, regardless of the comeback.

EPL
One week, Wolves beat Spurs 3-1 away and then lose 0-2 to Palace at home

Helmer wrote:Look I dont want to dampen your mood but you are the only team in top 6 who does not have a double digit goal difference.

why would that dampen my mood? it just goes to show that Mourinho was a POS. Lad had us going to jobbers (the likes of who we have been smashing under Ole) and PTB and not letting players have any freedom. Look at us vs Newcastle tonight vs them earlier in the season. We're bouncing back now.

There's no way we're actually worse than Chelsea or Arsenal quality wise.