If you had to put your entire savings/mortgage on one European comeback next week?

Over the last 4 days, 4 European semi-finals were played. None of the ties are exactly over, but there are heavy-ish favourites for each match.

As someone who monitors real-world risk, If you had to actually put all your savings on ONE comeback (and by that, I mean the team in disadvantage progressing to the European final), which team would you back to do it next week ?! (And you have to bet nearly all your savings on it, so no betting for the sake of it or just cause you have a hunch). Consider relative strengths of the teams, conditions of the second leg, history, overall environment.

Bayern knocking Madrid out

Roma.

They havn't conceded a single goal at home in the CL and they've played A. Madrid, Chelsea and Barcelona. All the KO rounds they lost the away leg 2-1 to Shaktar and won 1-0 at home advanced on away goal. Lost 4-1 to us and won 3-0 at home and advanced on away goals.

Not saying it'll happen as I believe that kind of luck will run out one way or another especially the form Salah is on, so don't @ me Pool fans.

Arsenal.

All they need is one goal to offset Atletico's advantage.

Definitely Bayern. Interesting stat about Roma not conceding at home. I think Salah will end that within 20 mins, would be amazing if they pulled off the comeback though.

Roma have 0,0 chances imo

Easily Arsenal among these 4.

At the end it is just 1-1.

Agreed with Arsenal.While 1-1 might feel like a win to Atlético, Its still a draw lol. One Arsenal goal and it's even.

Liverpool Roma has to be another anomaly so no way I'd bet anything there.

Bayern just seem headless and tackling their own players atm so I'd not put my money on them.

Football is unpredictable and anything can happen, true. But you know what will not happen? Roma making a comeback. They absolutely have no chance of coming back, not against a Klopp-led Liverpool with a Salah in God Mode.

If I had to bet on a comeback to happen, the most likely one would be is Bayern's. We have a narrow advantage, and we had serious trouble holding on to a 3-away-goal lead let alone a mere goal.

The tie is still open between the two teams whereas in Liverpool and Roma's case, there's absolutely zero chance for Roma to make a comeback. The tie is already over and Liverpool are already in the final.

The Demon of Carthage wrote:Football is unpredictable and anything can happen, true. But you know what will not happen? Roma making a comeback. They absolutely have no chance of coming back, not against a Klopp-led Liverpool with a Salah in God Mode.

If I had to bet on a comeback to happen, the most likely one would be is Bayern's. We have a narrow advantage, and we had serious trouble holding on to a 3-away-goal lead let alone a mere goal.

The tie is still open between the two teams whereas in Liverpool and Roma's case, there's absolutely zero chance for Roma to make a comeback. The tie is already over and Liverpool are already in the final.

Gotta love RM fans. The only uncertainly you'd have is against us. Bayern is done.

^ People also said Juventus were done and look what happened in the return leg.

Madrid is leaking goals like a waterfall this season, and considering what happened against Juventus, it really is not illogical or outrageous to suggest that the Germans are still in it. They still are and the tie is the furthest thing from being over. I'm actually surprised you don't feel the same way.

I hereby put my entire savings/mortgage on Bayern.

The Demon of Carthage wrote:^ People also said Juventus were done and look what happened in the return leg.

Madrid is leaking goals like a waterfall this season, and considering what happened against Juventus, it really is not illogical or outrageous to suggest that the Germans are still in it. They still are and the tie is the furthest thing from being over. I'm actually surprised you don't feel the same way.

Because I've been watching you for 3 years, you leave so much space, your defense is bad, yet no one has taken advantage of that... We are the only ones would you've at least prevent one CL title. Don't have anymore faith in anyone else until we can meet.

Demon often sounds as pessimist
you hadn't Ramos against Juve but Vallejo ( two Juve goals because of him). Terrible downgrade because Real can't defend as squad but just individually. . It is not going to happen now

You can't possibly mean that. You can't really say that no one has taken advantage of our bad defending when we're conceding an average of two goals per game. Juventus almost knocked us out and Bayern are still pretty much in it.

I respect your opinion though, but I completely disagree with it. Madrid's record at the Bernabeu this season is absolutely horrendous. We conceded three against Juventus, one against PSG and a gazillion others every week against Spanish teams. It would be a mistake to say that the tie is over.

rg, pls change my vote to Salzburg, wanted to looks edgy.

Bayern, and it’s not even close.

Madrid have been dreadful at home. All the other options are pretty unlikely. Bayern overturning a 1 goal deficit on the other hand is actually the likely outcome IMO.

Robespierre wrote:Demon often sounds as pessimist
you hadn't Ramos against Juve but Vallejo ( two Juve goals because of him). Terrible downgrade because Real can't defend as squad but just individually. . It is not going to happen now

I prefer "wary" instead of "pessimist"

No but honestly, I'm genuinely being sincere when I say the tie is far from over. It's better to be extra-careful than confident and complacent.

Also this:

vanDEEZ wrote:Bayern, and it’s not even close.

Madrid have been dreadful at home. All the other options are pretty unlikely. Bayern overturning a 1 goal deficit on the other hand is actually the likely outcome IMO.

I believe Atletico have conceded 4 goals at home all year. As much as I want Arsenal to go through, this has 0-0 or 1-0 to Atletico written all over it.

vanDEEZ wrote:I believe Atletico have conceded 4 goals at home all year. As much as I want Arsenal to go through, this has 0-0 or 1-0 to Atletico written all over it.

Don't underestimate Arsenal when they are extremely motivated. This is wenger's last year at the club and the players will kill themselves to give him a proper send-off. That Europa League trophy would be the perfect farewell gift to him.

I expect them to go Super Sayan mode in the return leg.

Considering the stakes and Mkhitaryan’s return, I would bet on Arsenal but then I‘m a horrible gambler.

Salzburg going to quietly make that comeback

You should definitively not bet your entire savings/mortgage on anything, let alone on something so improbable and volatile as one of those games

The thread starts with a "If", Hans.

I'm just saying, don't accept the premise. Don't do it.

No one's doing it ffs, Especially considering GL jinx is involved plus GL tax if there is any winnings.