The second year improvement myth

It is usually assumed that a player will tend to have a better second season than the first one. This is based on the hypothesis that the player requires a whole year to adapt to the new city and club. I always felt this was a big assumption for some reasons:

a) When I moved, it never took me more than weeks/months to settle in the new place. Humans are easily adpatable. If you settle, it won't take long. Otherwise you won't probably adapt at all.

b) Football wise, it doesn't necessarily take a year to adapt. You can explain a player how do you want him to play in half an hour. Football tactics are not that complicated and deep, and managers chew it and make it easier and understandable for their players. It will take some time to adjust to the things the coach asks, as the player does many things by "instinct", without thinking, as when you drive a car. However, these guys train a lot! So, as when you change from driving in Continental Europe to driving in England, you will get accostumed in a relatively short period. I haven't changed much football teams, but I've changed coaches, which is similar when it comes to adapting your football, and I've seen the team fully adapt in at most 2 months time, except for some individuals.

c) Humans like new things. People tend to be very motivated when they "change". You are very motivated when you change teams. The same way you are very motivated when you change jobs and you want to prove yourself. Or how horny you are when you swap girlfriends. But this motivation of "the new" wears out inevitably.

I think these assumptions are much more in line with human nature than assuming that it takes a whole year for a human to adapt to a new situation. Seems too much of a long time, especially for someone who plays so much football everyday. Off course, every person is different and to some it will take a whole year, but IMO, it is equally possible that a person will "unadapt" the next year. He can become unhappy for some reason, demotivated, can't adapt to a new coach, whatever.

Finally, empirical data to back up my claim. I've gone through all signings we've done since 90/91 that stayed minimum 2 seasons at the club and I made three groups: a) played better in their second season b) played aprox. at the same level in their second season c) played better in their first season.

I go by what I recall, and left out players I don't remember, so I might be wrong with some, but I tried not to be biased at all. Here is the list:

a) Koeman, Laudrup, Rivaldo, Marquez, Thierry Henry, Abidal. 6.

b) Goiko, Nadal, Juan Carlos, Laudrup, Miquel Soler (from my hometown), George hagi (both bad years), Abelardo, Popescu, Figo, Luis Enrique, Giovanni Silva, Michael reiziger, Ruud Hesp, (dutch pack Kluivert, Zenden, De boers...), Simao, Alfonso, Gerard Lopez (could go to c), Ronaldinho, Gio Van bronckhorst, Deco, Belletti, Eto'o, Giuly, Gudjohnsen, Toure, Pique, Alves, Keita, Maxwell, Adriano. 32.

C) Stoitchkov (could go to B, but his first season was just reseructing for us), Ivan Iglesias, Romario, Cuellar, Pizzi, Vitor Bahía, Fernando Couto, Winston Bogarde, Sonny Anderson, Cocu, Dani Garcia, Overmars, Dutruel, Saviola, Geovanni, Thuram, Zambrotta. 18.

(Prosinecki, Amunike, Larson, Edmilson, Milito, David Villa, Afellay excluded of the comparison because long injuries make their first/second season uncomparable. Note though that Villa was doing slightly worse).

So this is 6 players that improved in their second season, 32 that played as good in both seasons, and 18 that played worse in their second season.

I think that both the reasoning I provide + the empirical data is quite enough to once and forever disprove this myth that players tend to do better in their second season. There's no basis to believe that. They can do better, they can do as good (most likely), or they can do worse.

Another myth busted (visit my "home advantadge" thread for more football myth debunking - can't find the threat, suppose was erased).

Now, for fun: when did we sign worse in 06/07 or 09/10?

2006/2007: Thuram, Gudjohnsen, Zambrotta. (31 milion)
2009/10: Ibra, Chigrinski, Keirrison, Maxwell. (110 milion).

Again, not all players tend to do better in their second season. But a lot of them, as you pointed out do. Watching Alexis, he is improving day by day, while Ibrahimovic was declining day by day.

To be able to play football in Barcelona especially, not only you have to learn football the Barcelona way, you have to unlearn what you have learned in the past. And the latter is the most difficult part.

As for which year was worse, 2009-10 for sure. Considering the amount of money spent especially.

danyjr wrote:Again, not all players tend to do better in their second season. But a lot of them, as you pointed out do. Watching Alexis, he is improving day by day, while Ibrahimovic was declining day by day.

No, I pointed out that most of players don't improve in the second year. The shortest list is the list of players that improved.

free_cat wrote:No, I pointed out that most of players don't improve in the second year. The shortest list is the list of players that improved.

List B consists of names that played at top level for the majority of their career. There simply wasn't much room for improvement.

I'm optimistic about Alexis and I got enough reasons to be optimistic. Mind you, I'm not even a Barcelona supporter.

danyjr wrote:

free_cat wrote:No, I pointed out that most of players don't improve in the second year. The shortest list is the list of players that improved.

List B consists of names that played at top level for the majority of their career. There simply wasn't much room for improvement.

Not really, list b also include players that flopped both seasons: De Boers, Zenden, Simao, Alfonso, Gerard, Gudjohnsen, Hagi, Belletti, Juan Carlos.

I want to point out this has absolutely nothing to do with Alexis. I just thought of doing this because Barrilete mentioned it in the Leverkusen thread about Alexis, but it is something I've thought for a long time because it is a very spread way of thinking, not only in this forum, but all around. And I always thought it had no basis.

I used to think the same when Kizz said that Villa would have a better second season. All I'm saying is that there are no basis to believe that in general. In the contrary: it is more likely that the player will do equally good or worse.

a) When I moved, it never took me more than weeks/months to settle in the new place. Humans are easily adpatable. If you settle, it won't take long. Otherwise you won't probably adapt at all.

b) Football wise, it doesn't necessarily take a year to adapt. You can explain a player how do you want him to play in half an hour. Football tactics are not that complicated and deep, and managers chew it and make it easier and understandable for their players. It will take some time to adjust to the things the coach asks, as the player does many things by "instinct", without thinking, as when you drive a car. However, these guys train a lot! So, as when you change from driving in Continental Europe to driving in England, you will get accostumed in a relatively short period. I haven't changed much football teams, but I've changed coaches, which is similar when it comes to adapting your football, and I've seen the team fully adapt in at most 2 months time, except for some individuals.

A) When you moved where? You have to consider that most of these players don't move into another country until adulthood and that the education level of a football player is not very high. Just because it was easy for you to adapt elsewhere (you're at least bilingual to my knowlege, that probably helps, and helps learn other languages as well). Take Chyg's case. He had to learn a new language, I know life in Ukraine is pretty different than life in Barcelona, and on top of that he had to adapt to a new team (teammates, tactics, treatment coach, etc). I think to expect him to adapt within a few weeks is unreasonable.

I'm not saying there are cases where this is not the case. There obviously are. But it depends on a per person basis. It's not the same going from Valencia to Barcelona as a Spaniard in Villa's case (who adapted pretty quickly) to Chyg's story.

B) I feel like you're not taking into account possible language barriers, even with translators. Many of the great football associations come because the players themselves are very good friends, which helps their understanding, (think Puyol and Pique, Dani and Messi, Messi and Aguero, etc.). Again, the culture shock makes it harder for this.

Now I'm a pretty big supporter of the theory. I'm not saying that every player will have a better second season, but I do think that the ones that struggle will due to cultural reasons will. Or most of them, anyway.

BarrileteCosmico wrote:
A) When you moved where? You have to consider that most of these players don't move into another country until adulthood and that the education level of a football player is not very high. Just because it was easy for you to adapt elsewhere (you're at least bilingual to my knowlege, that probably helps, and helps learn other languages as well). Take Chyg's case. He had to learn a new language, I know life in Ukraine is pretty different than life in Barcelona, and on top of that he had to adapt to a new team (teammates, tactics, treatment coach, etc). I think to expect him to adapt within a few weeks is unreasonable.

I'm not saying there are cases where this is not the case. There obviously are. But it depends on a per person basis. It's not the same going from Valencia to Barcelona as a Spaniard in Villa's case (who adapted pretty quickly) to Chyg's story.

B) I feel like you're not taking into account possible language barriers, even with translators. Many of the great football associations come because the players themselves are very good friends, which helps their understanding, (think Puyol and Pique, Dani and Messi, Messi and Aguero, etc.). Again, the culture shock makes it harder for this.

Now I'm a pretty big supporter of the theory. I'm not saying that every player will have a better second season, but I do think that the ones that struggle will due to cultural reasons will. Or most of them, anyway.

A) I moved to Barcelona where I lived for seven years and to Miami for some months. Funnyly I settled easier in Miami (probably cause I was older), but both was done in less than two months.

B) Yeah, language barrier is important, I agree, but in the end this is about playing football, and football is pretty much a universal language. There's the case of players/coaches that when they learn the language they unadapt as well, cause people doesn't like what they say (happened to Juande Ramos for instance).

All in all, I think the evidence is pretty strong. You can go and check the lists, and argue for some player going to another of the lists, but I'm sure it won't change significantly.

I added a new and powerful reason that I'm pretty sure anyone has suffered when changing teams, girlfriends or jobs.

Take a look at the 6 that you consider to have done better in their second season. None of them are Spaniards. I'd say that the chances of them having a better second season are for instances in which players change leagues and haven't played in the Spanish league before.

I generally agree with Free and find like 90% of what he says logical and true, maybe more.

I think1 thing though.

The guys who you said stayed roughly the same level, some of them played slightly better. Its not leaps and bounds better, however, when your at a certain level its going to be pretty hard to be considerably better.

For example.

Etoo was better in his second season, if only marginally. The first perhaps 2 months, he seemed to understand his role, struggled with goals and generally how to connect with other players. After those 2 months, he got it and started playing excellently. The next season, I believe he scored more goals than ever and was very consistent.

This is minor improvement, but as much as you can expect for someone of that age.

I also think the Keita of right now, is a better player then he arrived. Thats more because of us than him, but I still believe that.


Overall, I agree that its a bit of a myth. If anything, its true in certain cases and not true in others..most others in fact.

However, you have to look at each individual situation I think.

BarrileteCosmico wrote:Take a look at the 6 that you consider to have done better in their second season. None of them are Spaniards. I'd say that the chances of them having a better second season are for instances in which players change leagues and haven't played in the Spanish league before.

That's a very good point, as well as the language barrier. It's very possible and makes sense that players from abroad and who don't speak the language need more time to adapt.

However, all I want to prove is that the general assumption that says "signings tend to do better in their second season" is probably baseless.

@Dani: Maybe Eto'o was slightly better in his second season, but he was a beast with us since the begining. I don't think the change was noticeable enough, while in the players in both groups a) and c), the change was, I think, noticeable enough.

On Sanchez. I know this isnt directly about him, but he was signed this season..so along with Cesc, he is the only one who this is relevant for now.

If he doesnt improve next season much, I wouldnt be surprised. Firstly, he is doing alot of running in behind and finishing..he is doing that aspect better than I expected.

Will he improve in terms of getting the ball, being more confident, taking on defenders and things like this which he hasnt done much? Probably not, he could, but I dont expect it really.

However, I do still see the possibility of improvement.

At 22/23 and more importantly, his 1st season in La Liga and 1st season at the Champions League type of level I think it will be a learning experience of some kind and I do think he will get a better level of comfort generally speaking.

I think at his age and experience, he will naturally improve as an all around player just like normal 22 or 23 year olds improve.

There is just 1 question. Will he be around long enough for that?

I believe, most players get to their best levels if given time at a club...when I say time, I mean if they are young/inexperienced and get years to improve. I can think of some examples too.

Another point. Many players improve when a new coach comes in, many go the other way.

Without Pep, I dont think Abidal improves to reach his Lyon level and then past that to the level he is now...I think if we go a lesser coach, he would of stayed the same level he was before, which wasnt good enough.

Henry I think likewise.

free_cat wrote:

BarrileteCosmico wrote:Take a look at the 6 that you consider to have done better in their second season. None of them are Spaniards. I'd say that the chances of them having a better second season are for instances in which players change leagues and haven't played in the Spanish league before.

That's a very good point, as well as the language barrier. It's very possible and makes sense that players from abroad and who don't speak the language need more time to adapt.

However, all I want to prove is that the general assumption that says "signings tend to do better in their second season" is probably baseless.

@Dani: Maybe Eto'o was slightly better in his second season, but he was a beast with us since the begining. I don't think the change was noticeable enough, while in the players in both groups a) and c), the change was, I think, noticeable enough.

I agree.

But I think if someone says "I think he will improve in his second season" it is possible that the improvement they mean (or dont mean) is minimal...like Eto'os...somewhat noticeable.

I'm pretty confident that both Cesc and Sanchez can improve. Mostly because they are both young, and can naturally get better.

I don't expect a major imrpovement though, and I think their adaptation process is basically done. Alexis IMO adapted to our game almost instantly, while Cesc it has taken longer, probably because Pep designed a system that revolved around letting Cesc not adapting (343).

About Guardiola being important for Henry and Abidal, I agree completely, and I think that both would have probably gone on flopping with another coach, especially Henry who was very close to being finished.

I agree actually, Sanchez doesnt have a complicated role and it was easy for him to adapt to it because of the previous style he has played in plus his natural game. Agree, Cesc has had a harder time and its been more complex.

I agree though, I dont expect major improvement at all.

I think it goes with the coach. He gives each player a role based on what he thinks they can do, then they take a bit of time (depends on the role, player ect) and then they get it or are not talented enough and we see that.

If one day Pep changes that role then it starts over, but I dont think he will, only perhaps in a one off situation.

Yeah, im certain Henry would of failed with someone less talented as Pep and Abidal would probably been back in France or something by now.

Thing is with Villa is that he started badly then broke his leg. The logic makes sense though, he has adapted now, understands his role better, and therefore should improve. If he doesn't I believe it will be because he's lost some footballing ability and not that adaption hasnt helped him. However, I want to be positive and believe he'll do well for us.

Slightly disagree on Alexis, see what I wrote in the match review thread. I think he changed his game and kept things simple after his first game to help him understand his role. I think he and Pep now have confidence in his ability to play it and he's naturally going to start playing with more freedom. Hopefully we'll see more a combination of the 'New Alexis' and the 'Old Sanchez' from now on. I'm not a fortune teller, I'm just trying to be optimistic, because I would like to see more of the dribbling free always talks about, as well as his passing which I think is better than Pedro and Villa's.

Villa was adapted to our game from day 1. He didn't need any adaptation as he already knew our ways and most of his teammates from Spain. I didn't notice any adaptation change in his first season. With his age, it was naturally that he had at most an equally good season this year.

About Alexis, I would also like to see if he can drible and pass. That he has a better pass than Pedro and Villa is also an assumption as of now.

• Your list does not include every transfer since early 90s. Only a handful. Why?
  
• Your "empirical data" is vastly influenced by your 'personal' judgement regarding whether a player has done better in a second season or not. I could make a list that proves the exact opposite to what you say. I might in fact do that.
  
• It is not a valid conclusion using those statistics on their own. There are plenty of variables that need to be considered before you can make any conclusion. Age, history, language, country of origin, experience in Europe, experience in La Liga, adaptation to style just to name a few.

In the end, I want to reaffirm that I don't believe all players improve in their second season. But I strongly believe given the player's intent, the environment and the style of play, every player can improve.

Nice write up by free And probably goes some ways to show the second year myth thing...Im having no opinion, but its more natural to improve in certain amount of time then initially, how long? Depends.

There are loads of examples...players who dont work out at first, dont work out ever at a new club, but then there are those who stick it out and eventually adapt and improve etc... I dont think its a matter of second year or not so, its got a lot more to do with many factors that come together - the individual itself and compared with suitability of the team, luck, timing, injuries, manager's preference, etc, etc....

I just hope they continue to improve and give us even more next year

And forgot Zambrotta was with us...but probably was past his best already...

danyjr wrote:

• Your list does not include every transfer since early 90s. Only a handful. Why?
  
• Your "empirical data" is vastly influenced by your 'personal' judgement regarding whether a player has done better in a second season or not. I could make a list that proves the exact opposite to what you say. I might in fact do that.
  
• It is not a valid conclusion using those statistics on their own. There are plenty of variables that need to be considered before you can make any conclusion. Age, history, language, country of origin, experience in Europe, experience in La Liga, adaptation to style just to name a few.

In the end, I want to reaffirm that I don't believe all players improve in their second season. But I strongly believe given the player's intent, the environment and the style of play, every player can improve.

a) My list includes ALL the transfer since the 90s that stayed at least two seasons and that I clearly recall. 65 players, clearly not a "handful". You won't find more than 4-5 names I left out. I'm getting tired of you not even checking the data or doubting me personally when you counterargue.
b) Off course it's my own personal list, but I tried to be completely unbiased and I have no reason not to. Also, I checked stats, games, etc when I was dubious. You can go on and do it, no worries, it'll be different for sure, but won't change the results significantly unless you judge the players with bias.
c) it is a completely valid conclusion "IN GENERAL". Those factors you mention are all good points that Alfred has mentioned, but would require separate analysis for each, and a big sample for each.

So, Danyjr... no list of yours?

Amic, I will when I have time. Or will I?

I don't know what "amic" means. Don't ask me if you will make a list or not, it's you who know if you can.

free_cat wrote:I don't know what "amic" means. Don't ask me if you will make a list or not, it's you who know if you can.

'Amic' means 'friend' in Catalan. Told you I had my doubts about your identity

Several posters on this board have met Free in real life and can assure you he is Catalan.

Let's just drop this argument unless there is anything actually relating to the topic to be added.