Re: The US Politics Thread

[VivaStPauli]

Eh, my nan at 79 worked two jobs, drove her grandkids around, and smoked two packs a day like a champ.

[Thimmy]

@Cbarca

What's going on in Wisconsin, man? We don't typically have American news all over the frontpage of the biggest news website here, but I feel like Wisconsin has been part of headlines a few times in recent years. Racism, riots.. sounds like a bad party

[Myesyats]

Eh, my nan at 79 worked two jobs, drove her grandkids around, and smoked two packs a day like a champ.

[Pedram]

https://thehill.com/homenews/senate/586450-manchin-says-he-will-not-vote-for-build-back-better-this-is-a-no

Looks like Manchin effectively killed Biden's agenda. Trump 2024 is really happening lol

[Myesyats]

This Munchin guy is a lobbyist money enthusiast i'm guessing?

[McLewis]

He's a coal baron of the highest order. He's deep in the pockets of corporations.

Somehow.....Centrists and moderates will blame this on us Progressives though.

[FennecFox7]

Well, progressives continuously ally themselves with dems and make absolutely nothing happen. And they alienate anyone to the right of them even if there are overlapping views on some instances (libertarian do this shit too and it angers me a LOT), for example, there is a strong overlap with libertarians on surveillance on Americans, the war on drugs, the corrupt police, lgbt rights, anti war and lobbyist money.. list goes on. A progressive-libertarian alliance could do more good in the long haul. The republicans and democrats will never fix this country.

[Myesyats]

It's astounding how the failed trumpian coup attempt was nearly a year ago now.

time flies

[VivaStPauli]

This is almost as sad as it was predictable. The States really need at least some kind of infrastructure bill.
But productive governing will remain impossible as long as corruption and bribery is basically legal via citizens united, and compromise will remain out of reach as long as the Republicans stay beholden to the Tea Party and it's successors - which is a result of the primary system and by extension gerrymandering.

[BarrileteCosmico]

They're going to try again and passed a scaled down version with what's most important. That seems fine with me?

Hard to see dems doing well in the upcoming elections though, shame to see such a historical opportunity wasted.

[Myesyats]

Meanwhile trump is installing his cronies in the party and getting rid of anyone who might oppose him so that when the coup attempt comes, everyone will comply and follow through with the plan

Dems cant get anything done so this will happen

[El Gunner]

the joker card

https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/976/cpsprodpb/0C47/production/_121134130_ye_getty.jpg

[McLewis]

Well, progressives continuously ally themselves with dems and make absolutely nothing happen. And they alienate anyone to the right of them even if there are overlapping views on some instances (libertarian do this shit too and it angers me a LOT), for example, there is a strong overlap with libertarians on surveillance on Americans, the war on drugs, the corrupt police, lgbt rights, anti war and lobbyist money.. list goes on. A progressive-libertarian alliance could do more good in the long haul. The republicans and democrats will never fix this country.

Progressive are doing what gives them the best chance at influencing how this country is governed. They have more influence to the left of Democrats than they ever will have to the left of Republicans. I frankly do not take Libertarians seriously. They may say good things and align with us on some of those things, but once they actually get into a position of actual influence, they get flaky.

For me, it's a matter of time. The large majority of Centrists are old. Boomers, Gen-X, etc. The large majority of Progressives are Millennials and Gen Z. Both generations will have their time to govern once the older generations die out.

I just hope we don't become our parents and grandparents by the time that time comes.

[McLewis]

When I hear the word "Centrist" and "Moderate", this is who I remember represents them. This is why I despise them politically.

[sportsczy]

Lindy Li is a political commentator for MSNBC, which is the same as using a commentator for Breitbart.

Unless an ACTUAL news source reports something and doesn't allege it, then whatever.  Just bullshit news like most news.

My take:  Similar to Mitt Romney and John McCain both not owing their vote to the Republican party when they disagreed in the past (such as repealing Obamacare), Manchin doesn't owe his vote to the Democratic party if he disagrees.

The problem with a 50/50 house or senate is that you need everyone to agree in a party. People are far more nuanced than that of course. There is no mandate on either side. As a result, in order to get things done, you need to avoid anything controversial. It's impossible to get it through otherwise, and rightly so. The country is literally 50/50 so neither side should be able to pass the extreme elements of their respective political agendas.

My view? The US is dead broke. That's why inflation is out of control and there's nothing the government can do to control it using monetary policy. Let's get our finances under control first. Once inflation is down to a reasonable level, then we can think about spending money. So I literally have no opinion on the actual bill other than we can't afford it.

In 2021, the US government spent $6.82 trillion and $4.79 trillion in 2020. It was $4.4 trillion in 2019. Our national debt as of 2021 is $19.23 trillion. 106.7% of our GDP needs to be spent on servicing our debt, which means that we're broke and we need to borrow money to make interest payments. It's debasing our currency.

That's the reality.

[Myesyats]

You're so naive if you believe this is about policies and not corporate donations

[sportsczy]

You're so naive if you believe this is about policies and not corporate donations

It's about votes.  That's all politicians care about... winning elections and staying in power.  West Virginia is a predominantly conservative state since 2000.  At best, Manchin needs to be moderate, or else a Republican wins.  That's his personal reality.

Bush (twice), John McCain, Mitt Romney, and Donald Trump (twice) have won the state in presidential elections since 2000, just to put it in perspective.  It's a shock that Manchin, a moderate democrat, is there honestly.

So you can't ask him to vote for controversial bills.  He can't do it and survive politically in his own state.

[McLewis]

My view? The US is dead broke. That's why inflation is out of control and there's nothing the government can do to control it using monetary policy. Let's get our finances under control first. Once inflation is down to a reasonable level, then we can think about spending money. So I literally have no opinion on the actual bill other than we can't afford it.

Let's expand on this. I have 2 questions:

1. What, in your opinion, does "getting our finances under control entail?

2. What does life look like for the average American while the government "gets its finances under control."? Paint that picture for me.

[BarrileteCosmico]

Sports what makes you think the US is broke? And how dies being broke lead to the current inflation problems?

[sportsczy]

Sports what makes you think the US is broke? And how dies being broke lead to the current inflation problems?

The issue is that we have to increase interest rates to curb inflation.  That's how you control it.  This has three impacts:

-  Economy tanks because the cost of capital goes up.
-  Stock markets typically retract because there's less money in the economy so growth projections are negatively impacted
-  Rise in interest rates = T-bill rates go up = government needs to pay a higher interest rate to holders

Since 106.7% of our GDP needs to be spent on servicing our debt even without the rate hikes, imagine having to pay a higher interest rate on new debt.  By definition, we'll need to borrow to cover the interest... it's a vicious circle.  

Now, if our debt as a % of revenue wasn't so high, no problem.  Also, if the economy was cranking and revenue projections allowed for additional spending, again, no problem.  You have wiggle room.

What you CANNOT do is ignore the problem, continue to borrow money despite the fact that you're way underwater... and then have a larger disaster on your hands if inflation is still running rampant and the economy slows (which very well might happen with Covid).  And you cannot expect the rest of the world to keep doing as bad or worse than the US so that, comparatively speaking, the value of the USD isn't eroding.  Imagine the world turning it around and the US economy staying flat... it could happen.

That's what happened in Europe leading to austerity measures:  Declining government revenues, unsustainable spending and no ability to inject more capital reasonably since you already spent all those bullets.

The US is in a very precarious position fiscally.  You need to, at least, get some clear positive outlook (not hopium) on either the economy or inflation before substantially increasing the debt burden.

If either one of these two things get solved, then yes, the US can borrow and spend some more.

[sportsczy]

To answer your question McLewis... the average American needs to have predictability in terms of buying power.  If you're making 4k a month and 3.8k is a person's cost of living, you can't have that 4k need to cover 4.2k in expenses within 12 months.  Most Americans live paycheck to paycheck because we live beyond our means... so it's a bigger problem in the US than in most places.  

That can't happen.  If the USD is losing 10% of its value annually (which is actually what it is if not more), then wages need to increase by 10%.  But the economy isn't growing by 10% for a lot of reasons (it's an unreasonable number anyhow by a factor of 3x) and, hence, wages will not rise that much... so you have to take measures to bring inflation down to near the growth rate of the economy (3-3.5% optimistically covid permitting).

People have to be able to pay for their cost of living.  That's the most important thing to the average American.  Hence the inflation and economic growth are the top concerns since they're completely out of whack with each other.

Forget the fact that if your country's growth rate and inflation rate cancel each other out, you're just standing in place while the rest of the world is growing.  So the relative wealth of the US and its citizens would in fact decrease relative to the world.

Things are really really really dangerous right now.  Most people don't realize because it could cause a panic.  I can see an implosion in 2022 if we're not careful.

If we can get inflation down to 2-3% or so, we're ok.  That's my target.

[sportsczy]

Last point... we flooded the economy with capital which, along with the supply chain crisis, caused massive inflation. The economy hasn't really recovered. People took all the cash and played the stock/crypto markets and made a killing. As a result, they're not going back to work since they make more money playing the markets.

So the economy isn't only slowed by supply chain issues, covid, etc... but labor shortages. However, we may see the perfect storm of:

- markets no longer providing the income
- economy slowing down
- high inflation rate

I can easily see a ton of people suddenly needing jobs, but a lof of those jobs no longer being there because the economy stalled. Then what? With inflation to boot so that things get more and more expensive every day?

A lot of risk out there. The government needs to keep some ammunition in case of a new great crisis. Need to reach some semblance of stability first.

[McLewis]

To answer your question McLewis... the average American needs to have predictability in terms of buying power.  If you're making 4k a month and 3.8k is a person's cost of living, you can't have that 4k need to cover 4.2k in expenses within 12 months.  Most Americans live paycheck to paycheck because we live beyond our means... so it's a bigger problem in the US than in most places.  

That can't happen.  If the USD is losing 10% of its value annually (which is actually what it is if not more), then wages need to increase by 10%.  But the economy isn't growing by 10% for a lot of reasons (it's an unreasonable number anyhow by a factor of 3x) and, hence, wages will not rise that much... so you have to take measures to bring inflation down to near the growth rate of the economy (3-3.5% optimistically covid permitting).

People have to be able to pay for their cost of living.  That's the most important thing to the average American.  Hence the inflation and economic growth are the top concerns since they're completely out of whack with each other.

Forget the fact that if your country's growth rate and inflation rate cancel each other out, you're just standing in place while the rest of the world is growing.  So the relative wealth of the US and its citizens would in fact decrease relative to the world.

Things are really really really dangerous right now.  Most people don't realize because it could cause a panic.  I can see an implosion in 2022 if we're not careful.

If we can get inflation down to 2-3% or so, we're ok.  That's my target.

Given that it's well known that Americans spend the majority of their money on Housing, Shelter, Transportation and Food, how exactly are we living beyond our means when all of these are absolute necessities for survival? Is it that we're buying houses instead of renting apartments and thus paying more for repairs? Are we buying cars with monthly payments? Are we eating more fast food instead of cooking more at home? Where can any of this be improved? Where do stagnant to lower working wages play into this equation?

[sportsczy]

oh gosh.

Let's drop this.  I'm not interested in whatever manifesto you're spewing.  I'm discussing basic economic theory in a capitalist society (which is what the US is) and you're talking about whatever it is you're talking about.

My initial point is that Manchin has the right to vote however he wants to, as did Mitt Romney and others before.  Everything doesn't fall within party lines.  Many broke ranks and will do so in the future. Obamacare would have disappeared in 2016 if this hadn't happened. And if you do a little research about his constituents in West Virginia, you'd realize that he's just representing the people that voted for him.  He's being pragmatic.

[McLewis]

You said the majority of Americans live beyond their means. I challenged that assertion and you apparently can't stand it.

Must be nice to browbeat people for just trying to survive while also not explaining why the way forward to prosperity (for everyone else, not them) will make it even harder for them to survive in the immediate sense.

[BarrileteCosmico]

The issue is that we have to increase interest rates to curb inflation.  That's how you control it.  This has three impacts:

-  Economy tanks because the cost of capital goes up.
-  Stock markets typically retract because there's less money in the economy so growth projections are negatively impacted
-  Rise in interest rates = T-bill rates go up = government needs to pay a higher interest rate to holders

Ok with you so far

Since 106.7% of our GDP needs to be spent on servicing our debt even without the rate hikes, imagine having to pay a higher interest rate on new debt.  By definition, we'll need to borrow to cover the interest... it's a vicious circle.  

You present this like a problem but it's not really. This is already happening all the time, even when rates are lower. Typically the US govt will never pay off the debt, they will just roll it over into the next issuance, so the principal never really matters. And even if rates do go up not all debt is expiring in the short term, there's a mix of maturities so it would only have a limited impact.

Now, if our debt as a % of revenue wasn't so high, no problem. Also, if the economy was cranking and revenue projections allowed for additional spending, again, no problem. You have wiggle room.

What you CANNOT do is ignore the problem, continue to borrow money despite the fact that you're way underwater... and then have a larger disaster on your hands if inflation is still running rampant and the economy slows (which very well might happen with Covid). And you cannot expect the rest of the world to keep doing as bad or worse than the US so that, comparatively speaking, the value of the USD isn't eroding. Imagine the world turning it around and the US economy staying flat... it could happen.

I think this is where you go wrong. Yes, debt to GDP is historically high, but so what? As discussed earlier the only thing that really matters is the interest paid, and that's less than 2% of GDP. It's hardly an insurmountable amount, even if it were to double (which it won't). This is the same reason for why countries like Japan are able to have such high debt/gdp numbers and continue to be trustworthy investments.

Also growth is strong right now (6%, highest in a very long time), unemployment is back to pre-covid levels, wages are rising, the economy is booming. So the wiggle room is definitely there.

Could omicron stop that? Seems unlikely, people are covid fatigued and unlikely to change their habits much more.

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