Venezuela on the verge of collapse

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Post by rincon Thu Jan 24, 2019 9:57 am

Yesterday (and this last week) was the most positive time in Venezuela in a couple of years. It is still unlikely that anything will actually happen (or uncertain) but now there is a bit of hope where there hasn't been since Leopoldo turned himself in and it backfired years ago. Like Pedram says, with the military in power, we can't do shit.

The bullets leading up to this for those interested.

- 2 and a half years ago Maduro dismissed the referendum to revoke him (an electoral tool to remove the acting president if enough people sign, 10 times more than what was needed was delivered to the electoral council, but they refused to hold the referendum).

- Parliament was dissolved last year (huge majority opposition product of the last elections that were held). MPs continued to operate in name, but with no power of course, as the only legitimate branch of power in the country.

- Many protests occurred and many people died, more injured, and more arrested and "disappeared" by the military police.

- After a bunch of fuckery by the electoral council (everything but parliament is government-run), they ended up holding presidential elections last year but with no opposition candidates. Maduro obviously claims to win again.

- Since these elections were even more of a joke than usual, foreign countries that were usually quiet finally started speaking up against the collapse of venezuela.

- This January Maduro's term ended, and the new one is supposed to start. In the condition that there is a crisis and there is no elected president, the constitution says that the president of parliament must be the temporary president of the country until elections can be held.

- The organization of american states (OAS) had been increasingly denouncing Maduro (the chair, Almagro, has been the #1 bro to venezuelans for years). At this point they basically dismissed the Maduro-appointed Venezuelan representative and voted to kick us out.

- The Grupo Lima (neighboring countries + Canada united to address the Venezuelan situation) expressed support for recognizing parliament, and not Maduro, as the presidential term ended. The US and others joined in this move.

- The term ended ~2 weeks ago and the president of parliament, the unlikely Juan Guaido, announced that as law dictates they would assume power to transition out of the regime and call for elections as soon as possible.

- Parliament called for massive demonstrations on January 23rd (very significant date in our history, our other dictator was overthrown on 23/01/58).

- People, angry and desperate, protested for days and face repression by the military. Cabildos (open community street meetings) started happened everywhere. Guaido got captured on the way to one of this in his home states, and immediately released.

- Yesterday, 23rd, the whole country was flooded with people on the street and in Caracas in the middle of it, Guaido announced that as president of parliament, he was the acting president of the country.

- Minutes later every relevant country in the region recognized Guaido and called for Maduro to get out. The only ones supporting Maduro are Bolivia and Cuba of course + now Mexico with their new president.

- Maduro gave US diplomats 72 hours to leave the country (Pence and Rubio had been vocal about the situation, now Trump as well) and applying similar measures to other countries. Guaido says Maduro can't say shit and calls for all diplomatic missions to stay.

- The day ended with ~10 dead, more injured, more arrested, confrontations in the barrios (slums). Diosdado Cabello (Maduro's #2, or rather Venenzuela's #1 military hardman) called for people to surround the presidential palace in a vigil to defend them all night. No one showed up.

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Post by Doc Thu Jan 24, 2019 12:28 pm

As Vene's neighbour, this is most worrying at the moment. For us and Venezuela to be honest.
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Post by iftikhar Thu Jan 24, 2019 2:17 pm

Sounds very much like Bangladesh.

Except, we have been robbed-off the opportunity to protest as well.

My best wishes to the Venezuelans, may their sufferings end sooner than later.
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Post by BarrileteCosmico Fri Jan 25, 2019 12:04 am

Can't see Maduro leaving peacefully. He knows full well he will end up shot or in jail. Best case scenario is exile to Cuba.
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Post by BarrileteCosmico Tue Apr 30, 2019 7:14 pm

Looks like part of the military splintered. Riots, repression and "Operation Liberty"
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Post by Hapless_Hans Tue Apr 30, 2019 7:18 pm

Well, Trump put Elliott Abrams on the case. Atrocities will follow like the amen in church.
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Post by rincon Tue Apr 30, 2019 10:11 pm

@Hapless_Hans wrote:Well, Trump put Elliott Abrams on the case. Atrocities will follow like the amen in church.
worst post you've had on GL
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Post by Hapless_Hans Tue Apr 30, 2019 10:17 pm

@rincon wrote:
@Hapless_Hans wrote:Well, Trump put Elliott Abrams on the case. Atrocities will follow like the amen in church.
worst post you've had on GL


Pls elaborate
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Post by CBarca Tue Apr 30, 2019 10:27 pm

As a sidenote, there is a Venezuelan restaurant where I live and it's my favorite restaurant in the city

Amazing food. Hope everything turns out OK
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Post by rincon Tue Apr 30, 2019 10:42 pm

@Hapless_Hans wrote:
@rincon wrote:
@Hapless_Hans wrote:Well, Trump put Elliott Abrams on the case. Atrocities will follow like the amen in church.
worst post you've had on GL


Pls elaborate

No, not today. It's just the worst and less informed post you've had here. It contains 0 analysis or information venezuela, you are projecting an agenda on a situation you don't understand simply because it fits your narrative of unrelated events.

It's very early so we don't know if it will be successful, but this last 3 months have been the most positive and hopeful we've had in many years.
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Post by Hapless_Hans Tue Apr 30, 2019 10:52 pm

Alright. Will take it to heart.
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Post by Blue Wed May 01, 2019 1:05 am

You may not like Hans point, but history is definitely on his side. There is one certain outcome, more atrocities will follow.

I say this as a Kurd who came from northern Iraq, i thought bringing down Saddam would bring a better future for Iraq. It didn't, US has repeatedly screwed over the Kurds, and the rest of Iraq is a shit show. From that regime change brought the condition for ISIS, and some of the worst atrocities in that region. Oh btw Saddam was in power, because US and Britain supported the Ba'ath party and he was on the payroll of the CIA.

Its truly sad when i think of Baghdad, when most think of that place as a shit hole and spewing with terrorists. There was a time when Baghdad was one of the most prominent cities in the world, center of trade and education. Some of the most highly minds around the world came there, and one of the center of intellectuals.

You may say that is unrelated event, but that is the only certain outcome from all of these US backed regime changes, in the ME, Africa, and South/Central America.

If the US wanted to help the Venezuelans; first would be strip the sanctions on the country and allow them to self determine their own fate.

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Post by BarrileteCosmico Wed May 01, 2019 1:40 am

The US is not sending troops in for regime change. They're supporting it economically and politically, but it's the Venezuelans themselves that are asking for and rising up. Russia on the other hand did send troops...

You would do well to remember that Venezuela is currently destroyed, people are repressed every week, basic foodstuffs and necessities are missing, even their deep oil reserves are not enough to prevent this. Unfortunately civil war looks likelier by the day.
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Post by Unique Wed May 01, 2019 1:57 am

No matter what happens in the world some people will always find a way to blame it on Britain the US and trump. One day someone is gonna say remember that time the USA and Britain did that thing. Well that’s why the dinosaurs got killed.
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Post by Blue Wed May 01, 2019 2:09 am

@BarrileteCosmico wrote:The US is not sending troops in for regime change. They're supporting it economically and politically, but it's the Venezuelans themselves that are asking for and rising up. Russia on the other hand did send troops...

You would do well to remember that Venezuela is currently destroyed, people are repressed every week, basic foodstuffs and necessities are missing, even their deep oil reserves are not enough to prevent this. Unfortunately civil war looks likelier by the day.


You do not need to send troops for regime change in many cases US never did, they start with sanctions that create the atmosphere and unrest in these countries. While the CIA recruits the opposition and arm rebels.

Seriously are we to believe that Trump, Abrams, and Bolsonaro are attempting to liberate a foreign nation. Trump is locking up kids at the border, and just recently vetoed a bipartisan effort to end US backed genocide in Yemen.

Solution is lifting these sanctions, efforts of sanctions ultimately hinders the population much greater. diplomacy is the solution not a CIA backed regime change.
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Post by BarrileteCosmico Wed May 01, 2019 2:21 am

Wait, what. Are you suggesting the unrest began with the sanctions? Laughing that's not what we have here. What we have is a military dictatorship taking over a democracy where the will of the people is being ignored. No amount of diplomacy will ever get them to give it back.
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Post by Blue Wed May 01, 2019 2:46 am

You are under estimating the role of sanctions, and how regimes in response act to keep their power.

Diplomacy is the answer, but not when ones comes to the table in bad faith. You cannot have a country on sanction, also plotting their demise and think the other side will bargain and persuaded to your ideas.

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Post by rincon Wed May 01, 2019 9:21 am

@Unique wrote:No matter what happens in the world some people will always find a way to blame it on Britain the US and trump. One day someone is gonna say remember that time the USA and Britain did that thing. Well that’s why the dinosaurs got killed.

Seriously this Laughing

@BC of course is right, as a neighbor who I'm sure has been paying attention for the better part of the millennium.

@Blue wrote:If the US wanted to help the Venezuelans; first would be strip the sanctions on the country and allow them to self determine their own fate.

Nope, no, no ,no. US and EU sanctions this year have been one of the few tools that have allowed Venezuelans to have finally an attempt to determine our own faith. The whole country has been screaming for help and action for years. The sad part is not that the other countries are looking to Venezuela now, it's that it took 20 years of massacres and oppression before we finally got help.
@Blue wrote:Solution is lifting these sanctions, efforts of sanctions ultimately hinders the population much greater. diplomacy is the solution not a CIA backed regime change.

Please @Blue. Use your knowledge of the situation to explain here how this is a solution. How in the world are sanctions hindering the population. Again, just like Hans you are just projection unrelated events.
@BarrileteCosmico wrote:Wait, what. Are you suggesting the unrest began with the sanctions? Laughing that's not what we have here. What we have is a military dictatorship taking over a democracy where the will of the people is being ignored. No amount of diplomacy will ever get them to give it back.

This Laughing

20 years of destroying the country with the military. More people die in Venezuela than in warzones. Caracas basically became the world's capital in murders, kidnapping and crime. We've had paramilitary militia and gang lords (colectivos y pranes) patrolling for Maduro and attacking protesters for a decade since Chavez created them. Corruption and hiperinflation brought the country to literal starvation. They were calling it the "Maduro diet" as on average the people had lost 11 kilos last year, average life expectancy is at child's age as newborns and kids just die of malnutrition and lack of medical care. Hospitals have no funding and thus no supply. We had 1 week of blackouts that killed so many people in hospitals across the country. There is no hope for education anymore as universities closed or are understaffed due to not being able to pay profs. Not to mentioned schools where the situation is even worse, even private schools have little teachers anymore. A whole generation of young people fled to earn money outside and support their families, now a whole generation of kids is lost literally.

But please tell me how 2 months of sanctions are to blame.
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Post by rincon Wed May 01, 2019 9:35 am

@Blue wrote:You are under estimating the role of sanctions, and how regimes in response act to keep their power.

Diplomacy is the answer, but not when ones comes to the table in bad faith. You cannot have a country on sanction, also plotting their demise and think the other side will bargain and persuaded to your ideas.

This post sums it up. I'ts a phenomena we face on the internet where outside people who only began to hear the word "Venezuela" maybe in the last year try to explain the situation to Venezuelans.

Let's go through what you say.

What is the role of sanctions and how has the regime responded?
I'd love to hear about this. In my last post I gave more details of the situation. The sanctions (which again, were just imposed a couple of months ago) have had no effect on the people. Venezuelan institutions received no money from the government and continue not to receive any. All of the country's income went to the top brass, the military and Cuba. It's the reason why we have hyperinflation and why have no working institutions. I know this first hand of course.

You say diplomacy is the answer unless you come to the table in bad faith.
As @BC and everyone else looking at the situation say, no amount of dialogue will work. This of course is shared by every single one of our neighbors except for the ones we pay (Cuba, Bolivia, Nicaragua). The Grupo Lima which has been acting wonderfully in front of all of this is composed of basically everyone relevant in the region (Brazil, Argentina, COlombia, Canada, Peur, etc.) except for the US. The US of course also agrees with Venezuelans, Grupo Lima, @BC and I.

How do we all know? because we tried diplomacy. The tried it again, then again, and then to the dismay of all Venezuelans, tried it again. Every single time Chavez/Maduro ignored every single tenant of every negotiation and concession agreed. No matter how many expresidents Spain sent to create negotiation tables, how much Venezuelans conceded to Maduro, nothing. They would agree to something and never implement it. This happened as late as last year. But this is evident. Someone with 0 regard for democracy and people's lives is not interested in good faith.
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Post by rincon Wed May 01, 2019 9:54 am

No one is actually looking at Venezuela. You are reading the word "US sanctions" and automatically entrenching yourself on a pre-chosen stance.

The only reason why Guaido is alive is because of the international threat. If the US and the Grupo Lima had not immediately backed him up on Jan 23rd then he follows every other leader we had and disappears to prison. Unless of course February 2019 sanctions had a Bran/Hodor-like effect and led to the arrests of Capriles in 2004, of Leopoldo in 2014, etc.

We need help. Europe hasn't given a damn about Venezuela. Turning a blind to the hundreds of thousands dying and the refugee crisis in Venezuela. So no, Europe doesn't get to criticize the US on this one. America (the continent) finally stopped taking our money and is addressing the humanitarian crisis that has been going on for years. We see unarmed, peaceful, protests every year or every other year. Venezuelans cannot depose this military dictatorship alone. Now we've had some help and as such some better results. More than 3 million people have left looking for refuge in Colombia, Peru, Brazil, etc and countless died before anyone started to care. And we need more help. Without foreign action this will never end.
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Post by rincon Wed May 01, 2019 10:02 am

@BarrileteCosmico wrote:The US is not sending troops in for regime change. They're supporting it economically and politically, but it's the Venezuelans themselves that are asking for and rising up. Russia on the other hand did send troops...

You would do well to remember that Venezuela is currently destroyed, people are repressed every week, basic foodstuffs and necessities are missing, even their deep oil reserves are not enough to prevent this. Unfortunately civil war looks likelier by the day.

Something people choose to ignore. Chavez brought Cuban troops 17 years ago and we've been run by Cuba ever since. Russia got in some ~10 years ago and over the last few years has supplied troops and weaponry to sustain Maduro but no one outside of America cares. How many times do we have to see Russian intervene in Caracas whenever there is unrest before people realize what's going on.
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Post by Blue Wed May 01, 2019 1:29 pm

2 months on sanctions? Why are you willfully ignoring decades of sanctions going back to the days of Bush, and long standing attempt by the US to overthrow the Venezuela regime.

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Post by BarrileteCosmico Wed May 01, 2019 1:35 pm

Lmao. These "decades of sanctions" where the US was the biggest importer of Venezuelan oil.
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Post by Blue Wed May 01, 2019 2:07 pm

@BarrileteCosmico wrote:Lmao. These "decades of sanctions" where the US was the biggest importer of Venezuelan oil.


ugh operating at fractions of its capacity.


I have to get to work, but it is amazing you think you are in the right. Where every empirical data backs my viewpoint, in fact can you even cite a successful regime backed by US?

John Bolton has openly said this is about Venezuela Oils, point blank. The motive of these saviors and liberators are quite clear.

https://www.globalresearch.ca/john-bolton-admits-us-backed-coup-venezuela-oil-not-democracy/5667083

The record of austerity committed by Elliott Abrams in Central/South America and the regimes that he advocated for is long and horrendous.

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Post by rincon Wed May 01, 2019 2:10 pm

@Blue wrote:2 months on sanctions? Why are you willfully ignoring decades of sanctions going back to the days of Bush, and long standing attempt by the US to overthrow the Venezuela regime.


Decades of sanctions? Laughing Literally our biggest clients.

Imagine supporting a military dictator like Maduro just to further your agenda.

Don't click unless you don't want to see tanquets running over unarmed civilians from yesterday:
https://www.abc.es/internacional/abci-vehiculo-militar-arolla-manifestantes-carlota-201904301842_video.html

We can go back to 2001 when Chavez started doing such things^ I guess as a result of mystical sanctions that exist only on GL.
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Post by rincon Wed May 01, 2019 2:32 pm

@Blue wrote:
@BarrileteCosmico wrote:Lmao. These "decades of sanctions" where the US was the biggest importer of Venezuelan oil.


ugh operating at fractions of its capacity.


I have to get to work, but it is amazing you think you are in the right.

The irony of this. Do you know who Luis Tascon is and what he did in 2004? do you know what happened in 2003?

15000+ workers of PDVSA and associates where fired in 2003 following the general strike, and replaced entirely by loyalists who knew fuck all of engineering. As such the entire oil industry of Venezuela fell in disrepair and every year we lost production capacity.

Followed of course by the beauty that is Luis Tascon. Chavez changed the constitution and introduced the referendum revocatorio (referendum to change the president halfway through the term if enough people sign and vote on it). The people, obviously afraid, still signed to trigger the referendum in 2004. What was the result of that? Tascon released the should-be-secret vote in his infamous list and Chavez proclaimed that "everyone whose signature is in Tascon's list signed against the country". So he ordered everyone on the list to be fired from public office, works, and contracts. Purging everyone disloyal to him from the oil industry (for example) and preventing them to be even subcontracted for services. Deeply worsening our entire industry.

Tell us again on the causes of what has been occurring in Venezuela these last 2 decades. Cause I was there during the strikes in 2003, and my dad was prohibited to work as a construction contractor due to appearing in Tascon's list since he signed to trigger the vote.

This caused the first wave of emigrants from Venezuela as people couldn't work anymore, where the country lost all the expertise in oil and the industry decayed. PDVSA became the always-decaying checkbook of the regime.
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