Looking at the Long Term

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Post by Kick Sun Jan 18, 2015 6:36 am

So with Jose's recent comments about Thorgan Hazard:

He’s a good player. A player we like. He’s one of the few players that I travel to see play live.

If we don’t need [to sell] I don’t want to. He is one of the players we have on loan that has the potential to play for Chelsea one day.

I got to thinking about which other youth players has a future here, and which area's of the park we will be deficient in, in the coming seasons.

First, I'm going to skip over the Goal keepers, As Courtois is 22 and Blackman has just been recalled. If Cech leaves, we may buy another GK, or we could just stick with Blackman and Beeney.

The defence is one part of the field which worries me, to a degree. JT is now 34 and while he'll no doubt retire here, his place in the XI is not secure, long term. Cahill is now 29 and not as good as JT ever was, meaning, it's unlikely he'll retain a first XI spot for as long as JT has. Both would be fantastic back ups until they retire but whether or not they'll remain in the first team is less clear. Kalas, Zouma, Omeruo and Christensen are our top CB prospects. Kalas and Zouma are undoubtedly the top prospects of the four, both of which have the potential to be starting CB's for us. Omeruo seems to have stagnated a bit in recent times while Chirstensen is too young to be anything more than a youth prospect.
However, if neither Kalas or Zouma take the step up, we'll need to purchase some top CB's in the future.

The shining light of the full backs is Dave, while Luis and Ivanovic are fantastic, both are either nearing 30 or already over 30. I don't really consider Ake a fullback and the only youth player of note is Jay Dasilva. So I imagine changes will have to be made here, the high quality of Azpilicueta means we can search for either a RB or a LB in the future, knowing the other full back spot is secure.

Cesc and Matic make the ultimate pivot, Ramires, Mikel and Van Ginkel make 5 quality players for 2 positions. None are particularly old so we can see little changes over the next few seasons, perhaps the Khedira rumours will finally come true or maybe we'll purchase someone else to replace Mikel or Ramires. Perhaps Ake will finally make the move to DM.

The band of three will more than likely be spearheaded by Hazard and Oscar for the next 7-10 years. Willian is a very handy player to have around, so that makes 3 out of 5-6. The remaining places could be occupied by any combination of: Schurrle, T. Hazard, Baker, Bertrand Traore, Boga, Piazon, Atsu, Musonda, Palmer, or Izzy Brown.
I am inclined to give one spot to Thorgan, considering Jose's comments and the fact Salah has very little future with the club. So the last 1-2 spots could be taken up by one of our many youth AM's or a purchased player.
Ideal senario for 15/16 season:
Salah gets sold, Schurrle + cash for Reus.
E.Hazard, Oscar, Reus, Willian, T.Hazard and Boga are named as our 6 AM's.

Our CF's spot is an interesting one. Costa and Remy have two of the three CF spots on lock. Both have been fantastic and I can't see that changing anytime soon.
So who gets the third spot? Drogba won't be around much longer and Kramaric just signed for Leicester.
Perhaps Bamford will step up and take that spot? Maybe Solanke will come of age and take it? Or we'll buy someone like Alcacer, Icardi or another we've been linked to?

I have missed out on quite a few names here so I thought I'd seperate the youth players/loanees into four categories depending on their future with us:

No Chance
McEachran, Romeu, Cuevas, Bertrand, Kakuta, Swift, Moses, Marin, Delac, Kane

Last chance saloon
Wallace, Omeruo, Piazon, Atsu, Chalobah, Feruz, Kiwomya, Perica

Decent Chance
Bertrand Traore, Pašalić, Palmer, Musonda, Loftus-Cheek, Brown, Solanke, Baker, Boga, Dasilva, Christensen

Very Good Chance
Kalas, Ake, Bamford, Van Ginkel, Thorgan Hazard, Zouma




Have I missed anyone or do you guys disagree?
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Post by Katy Perry Sun Jan 18, 2015 3:14 pm

Kick, honestly, I'd want the players that you've listed to make it too but let's look at the reality, at the Courtois and Lukaku situation. We only integrate our loanees if they're better than what we already have and that who we're looking to buy for that position. Courtois was better than Cech so we integrated him and he's starting for us, Lukaku wasn't better than our strikers in the 12/13 and 13/14 so he was loaned out, and he wasn't better than the player we were going to buy in that position so we sold him.

So the only player that as of now has showed to have at least the quality of the players in the club that are already there is Thorgan. I expect a better future for him than what happened to KDB as last season we had 6 AMs, we had the Mata-Oscar-Hazard trio + the new signings Willy and Shirley, that's why he struggled to get first team action and left. Now we have Salah who's sheet, Shirley who's struggling and is rumoured to leave, Willy who's good, but lacks end product. So if he was at Chelsea right now he could very well be our 4th choice AM or even start, hence he's the only one with Zouma that has a very good chance, and with very good chance I mean that a catastrophe needs to happen to prevent them to have a future with Chelsea.

Then I'd put those who are not ready yet but clearly have the potential and need to fulfill it by gaining gametime elsewhere in the good chance bracket:
Mourinho wrote:My conscience tells me that if, for example, Baker, Brown, and Solanke are not national team players in a few years, I should blame myself
these three plus Van Ginkel as he was already in the first team roster last season, but his injury and his unsuccesfull loan spell at Milan slowed down his career, Bamford as I recall that half of Shed's 21271 posts have been updates in the Patrick Bamford's thread like this:
@Shed wrote:GOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOAAAAAAAAAAAAAAALLLLL!!!!! cheers


Bamfordinho scores
but he still needs to prove himself in the PL. Pasalic as he was one of the best midfielders in Croatia and has been called up by the NT and has secured a starting spot for Elche, Kalas I thought he had a very good chance as he did well with Vitesse and in that one majestic performance at Anfield but flopping at Koln and needing to go in the Championship to find game time is not promising. I'm going to put Ake there despite not knowing him because I trust your Kick, you've put McEachran in the no chance bracket, so you must have been very objective and rational in your pust. hmm

The rest either I don't know or I don't think they have a future.


Oh and what's certain is that we're going to buy a GK, we recalled Blackman because Middlesborough didn't mind as he was the second keeper and only because we needed a number. We're going to buy someone like Schwarzer like we did last season for the second keeper. And a fullback too as except Wallace, who's disappeared since his loan at Inter, we don't have anyone worthy.
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Post by Kick Mon Jan 19, 2015 7:53 am

@Katy Perry wrote:Kick, honestly, I'd want the players that you've listed to make it too but let's look at the reality, at the Courtois and Lukaku situation. We only integrate our loanees if they're better than what we already have and that who we're looking to buy for that position. Courtois was better than Cech so we integrated him and he's starting for us, Lukaku wasn't better than our strikers in the 12/13 and 13/14 so he was loaned out, and he wasn't better than the player we were going to buy in that position so we sold him.
I'd argue Lukaku would have been intergrated if he didn't want first team action. We only got Remy and Drogba after Lukaku was sold, I bet we wouldn't have signed Remy if Lukaku was content with playing second fiddle.

I think we're more likely to integrate youth if they're good enough. Regardless of whether they'd make the starting XI or not.

@Katy Perry wrote:So the only player that as of now has showed to have at least the quality of the players in the club that are already there is Thorgan. I expect a better future for him than what happened to KDB as last season we had 6 AMs, we had the Mata-Oscar-Hazard trio + the new signings Willy and Shirley, that's why he struggled to get first team action and left. Now we have Salah who's sheet, Shirley who's struggling and is rumoured to leave, Willy who's good, but lacks end product. So if he was at Chelsea right now he could very well be our 4th choice AM or even start, hence he's the only one with Zouma that has a very good chance, and with very good chance I mean that a catastrophe needs to happen to prevent them to have a future with Chelsea.
Thorgan, Zouma, Ake and Kalas have all shown the ability to play for us well. All of them should, be a regular in the future.

@Katy Perry wrote:Then I'd put those who are not ready yet but clearly have the potential and need to fulfill it by gaining gametime elsewhere in the good chance bracket:
Mourinho wrote:My conscience tells me that if, for example, Baker, Brown, and Solanke are not national team players in a few years, I should blame myself
these three plus Van Ginkel as he was already in the first team roster last season, but his injury and his unsuccesfull loan spell at Milan slowed down his career, Bamford as I recall that half of Shed's 21271 posts have been updates in the Patrick Bamford's thread like this:
@Shed wrote:GOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOAAAAAAAAAAAAAAALLLLL!!!!! cheers


Bamfordinho scores
but he still needs to prove himself in the PL. Pasalic as he was one of the best midfielders in Croatia and has been called up by the NT and has secured a starting spot for Elche, Kalas I thought he had a very good chance as he did well with Vitesse and in that one majestic performance at Anfield but flopping at Koln and needing to go in the Championship to find game time is not promising. I'm going to put Ake there despite not knowing him because I trust your Kick, you've put McEachran in the no chance bracket, so you must have been very objective and rational in your pust. hmm
I can agree with this, I hope Jose is right with those youngsters, but they have a lot of work to do before they'll be in the first team.
Van Ginkel still has a lot of talent, hopefully 2015 will be better for him, I still have faith.
I can agree with you on Bamford, he needs to prove himself but I think he will, I'd love to see him become our third choice, tbh.
Pasalic establishing himself in the first team is fantastic, I do have high hopes for him.
Kalas was praised on debut at Boro so I think that loan will go well, he is, in my mind, better than the championship, it's just a shame he didn't get game time at Koln, otherwise he'd be in the same boat as Thorgan.
Ake is quality, however, he has to play DM, he's too small for CB and not a LB. The club giving him No.6 is a sign of their faith in him.

McEachran has not improved since his debut for us in 2010.
@Katy Perry wrote:The rest either I don't know or I don't think they have a future.


Oh and what's certain is that we're going to buy a GK, we recalled Blackman because Middlesborough didn't mind as he was the second keeper and only because we needed a number. We're going to buy someone like Schwarzer like we did last season for the second keeper. And a fullback too as except Wallace, who's disappeared since his loan at Inter, we don't have anyone worthy.
I can agree with that. Cech, I feel, with leave in the summer. Blackman will remain third choice and we should go for a decent young English player as a back up. Someone like Alex McCarthy or Ruddy.
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Post by Kick Thu Feb 05, 2015 12:01 am

The fact we signed Cuadrado but let two wingers go means we are light in AM's. Perhaps opening the door to Thorgan?
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Post by Katy Perry Thu Feb 05, 2015 12:05 am

I was hoping that we would've brought him back home in this january, but that wasn't the case. It doesn't look bright for him to return this june as well, Gladbach's official twitter twitted that they were talking with us about making the move permanent and they were confident about it.

I'm personally against selling him.
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Post by Kick Thu Feb 05, 2015 12:10 am

I doubt we would have, he is playing well at BMG, so leave him there for now.

We don't NEED him, so better to go without.

I think, if that 5th spot is his, we will fight to keep him since we have no need to sell. But if we have other plans, we'll probably fetch 10-15m for him.
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Post by Katy Perry Thu Feb 05, 2015 12:14 am

Yea, but like you said we're a bit short in AMs, 4 for three position. One injury and we'll be forced to play the same AMs even when we'll play 3 games in a week when CL will be back. I guess Remy and Ramires can play there in case of emergencies.
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Post by Kick Thu Feb 05, 2015 12:18 am

And Cesc.

Basically, RLC and Brown have been brought in to ensure we have the numbers incase of injury.
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Post by Shed Thu Feb 05, 2015 12:36 am

Forgot to respond to this Looking at the Long Term Couch
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Post by Kick Thu Feb 05, 2015 1:11 am

You can now Laughing
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Post by fatman123 Thu Feb 05, 2015 5:26 am

@Kick wrote:You can now Laughing

No, he can't
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Post by Kick Thu Feb 05, 2015 5:37 am

Clearly.
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Post by Shed Thu Feb 05, 2015 9:05 am

I was sleeping ffs
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Post by fatman123 Thu Feb 05, 2015 10:06 am

Still can't reply
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Post by fatman123 Thu Feb 05, 2015 10:20 am

In many ways, what Mou is doing now isn't too different to what he did during his first spell at Chelsea, albeit slightly differently

In his first spell Mou bought a mountain of talent eg Carvahlo, Colex2, Essien, Drogba etc and built a core of young-middle aged players who we could build a team around, and after Mou left we continued to use this core of players

This time around Mou has built/in building a similar core of players, although this time has to buy much more carefully (ie no more Sheva, Crespo and other risky transfers) and has had to rely much more heavily on both selling players (KdB, Lukaku, Luiz, Mata) who in his first spell he would have tried his hardest to keep as squad players, and on youth/academy players like Hazard, RLC etc

By the start of next season Mou will have built the team/squad he wants, which will have him just about at the point where he ended his first spell with Chelsea. What will be really interesting to see is what will happen if Mou stay around for four, five, six seasons and has to continue to grow and evolve the squad he built in his first two seasons-something we haven’t seen him do at any club

Irrespective of where mou is in the next 1-3 seasons, it is important that Chelsea as a club continue to grow as a club. After Mou built our first world class squad we sat back on it, and windows such as the one where we lost Ballack and Essien and replaced them with Zhirkov and Ramires are what forced us into the period of rebuilding that went on from when AVB came in untill the end of last season (despite us winning a CL in that period).

The clubs aim should be to put together a squad that could compete at the top level for two or three consecutive seasons (like Mou did in his first spell), and if we continue to buy players in the same vein as Hazard, Oscar and Zouma we'll get there, but we're not quite there yet I dont think

I got slightly off topic :there, but it's something I've been thinking about for a while now
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Post by Shed Thu Feb 05, 2015 11:12 am

What's this? I 100% agree with a fitty post? What is going on here? Shocked
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Post by Kick Thu Feb 05, 2015 11:24 am

Well, he is right.

Also, I think, regardless of manager, we will continue to build on this foundation we have. Emanelo and Roman have been doing a great job and I imagine they will continue to do so.
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Post by fatman123 Thu Feb 05, 2015 6:56 pm

@Shed wrote:What's this? I 100% agree with a fitty post? What is going on here? Shocked


Suck it you stupid jerk
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Post by Kick Thu Feb 05, 2015 11:13 pm

He is wrong about one thing, we got Zhirkov before Ballack and Cole left, he is thinking of Benayoun.

Sidenote, we went from buying Benayoun to buying players like Oscar, the Hazard bros and other great young players, all in the space of 5 years. :bow:
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Post by Shed Thu Feb 05, 2015 11:17 pm

@Kick wrote:He is wrong about one thing, we got Zhirkov before Ballack and Cole left, he is thinking of Benayoun.


I knew there was something worthy of dislike in it :coffee:

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Post by Kick Thu Feb 05, 2015 11:30 pm

The idea of the post is correct.

This road we have taken is a good one, and it is also untraveled by many big clubs, Utd, Liverpool, Everton, Juve, Milan, Inter, even Barca all take the route of buying big name stop gaps instead of building a successful future like we have.

The loan system we have, as a whole, is working (despite what many people think) and Lukaku, Bamford, Courtois and Hazard are all proof of that. Hell, even the profit we got on Bertrand is a good indication of it's success.

I would like us to sell some of our youth a bit sooner (McEachran, Davila et al.) to cut down the massive army of loaned players, but as a whole, the system works.

We often get a nice profit, OR a player to integrate with the first team, win win.

I would also like to see us continuing to buy young talented players to compete in the first team, (Oscar, Hazard, Azpilicueta, Zouma).

So hopefully we'll never have to get excited about signing someone like Benayoun or Zhirkov again. Laughing
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Post by Shed Thu Feb 05, 2015 11:31 pm

Agree 100%
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Post by Shed Thu Feb 05, 2015 11:44 pm

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sport/football/article-2937796/It-s-not-quite-Jody-Morris-cleaning-Dennis-Wise-s-boots-Chelsea-filling-youth-teams-local-heroes.html
-

On this topic, here's a great article from Neil Ashton (not often you get to say those words) on the increasingly English, locally-born and raised population in our academy, the Chelsea-affiliated make-up of the youth coaching staffs, and the day-to-day lives of the lads at the club.
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Post by Kick Fri Feb 06, 2015 12:40 am

I love how he talks about local players then refers to Christensen being on the bench Laughing

It is a good point, though. Especially the fact we smashed one of the best academies in England in Southampton.
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Post by Abramovich Fri Feb 06, 2015 1:31 pm

I can''t see any great long term future with Mou at the helm, maybe he will prove us wrong.

I really want the young English talent to break into our X11 sometime in the future, sure it depends on them as well but they need chances.
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