Futbol Bill experienced predictions

I'm headed out for the next two weeks (without any internet access), just when I think the deals will begin to happen so I giving you the value of my experience with my predictions!!!

First off let's clarify that there are only 3 players that we are (or have) actively pursued. These 3 are Coentrao, Aquero and Neymar. With the Varane signing, it could be argued that we are done and it's just a matter of getting rid of the lightweights. We have 22 players confirmed, including Benz, Lass and Kaka (goal -2, defense - 7, midfield - 8, wingers / strikers - 5). The lightweights to go (or lent) are Garay, Mateos, Gago, Canales, Drenthe and Leon.

We also have 3 players at Castilla that are likely to be practicing and getting call-ups. (Morata, Mejias and Nacho).
Re Morata with his new contract, I don't believe we will sign a 3rd striker. They would have had to give him some hope and promises about 1st team action to keep him, plus telling him they need him at Castilla to finally get to Liga Adelante (this is essential if they are ever going to get academy to barca level). He won't make 1st team since he is with U19 team for most of training camp.

So to the deals:

Coentrao - I firmly believe this will be announced in next week.

Aquero - I also think this one is pending, but the additional persuit of Neymar has confused me. Is it one or the other or is it both? I predict this one is happening.Timing may wait until Copa America is over.

Neymar - I really uncertain about this one. One is how young he is and the huge price tag. The second is the statements coming out of brasil in past few days and the 3rd is the heavy competition for him. I initially thought it would be a futures deal, but as someone said, you don't pay that kind of money and then loan out. So my prediction is this is not Kun or him, it's both if they can get him.

Coentrao does not result in anyone leaving (other than the fore mentioned Mateos, Garay and Drenthe), meaning we will have 8 defense plus Nacho on sidelines.

Aquero and Neymar coming result in Benz being sold and if Neymar as well, then Kaka also will be sold.

And then finally the question is what happens with both Lass and Kaka. Lass will definitely go if someone pays the price. Kaka is quietly being shopped around. There are 2 questions about him, one is can we get a decent price for him and the second is we don't have to sell him unless we get Neymar. If both go, we will try for replacement players (my inclination says one player only). The question is do they go for a defensive minded MF or an attacking MF. I don't have a prediction on this, but I would like to see another attacking MF (my favour is Cazorla).

Jack Daniels wrote:No need to call others opinion as BS.

It wasn't his opinion, it's the various newspapers that are literally making things up to sell papers. He just persists in putting anything he sees out there as a post claiming it's a rumour. In any event he isn't about to stop so I'll just ignore the thread and concentrate on real deals and intelligent or logical discussion.

Well, I'm back and see that I was right about Coentrao plus departures of Mateos and Garay.

It does look like Neymar is close but whether he comes now or after June 2012 is the more likely discussion rather than whether he comes or not. I think it's beginning to look like Kaka might stay (I believe he's the player to go once Neymar is signed (and comes)) and therefore I'm inclined to accept that Madrid will make the deal giving Santos what they are asking.

Lass does appear to be out. Mourinho leaving him behind is putting the pressure on lass to make his move. Sportczy was right! It also looks like they don't feel a need to replace him.

I still believe Aquero is coming, but they won't agree on this until after next weekend (end of Copa America) and that gives Benzema one last chance to show he's better than Aquero. Aquero starting along side Di Maria and Higuain although shows how good he will be here.

I've heard the renewed rumours about Adebayor. I hope that doesn't happen as I'm still hoping Morata is the 3rd striker (from Castilla).

And the remaining predictions of Leon, Drenthe and Canales departing are still in the works. Both Drenthe and Leon need someone to give them decent advise. Drenthe now doesn't want to go to Benfica, he wants to go back to Feyoord and similarly Leon doesn't want o go back to Getafe, he wants to try to convince Mou? Hard to do when he's left you behind. In any event both will be gone before end of July. Canales is in a bit of a situation. He wants to stay in Spain with both Villareal and Valencia offering to buy him with option for Madrid to reaquire. Madrid wants a loan deal and so far only teams in England and Germany agreeing, but Canales doesn'T want to leave Spain. I hope they end up making a deal with either of Valencia or Villareal.

So I believe all my predictions are still right.

I see I left one out - Gago. I haven't seen any news about him at all. Maybe Mou is evaluating how he does with Argentina in Copa America before deciding if they get rid of him. He also could be the back-up plan with lass about to go. However I still think I'm right that he will go, likely after next weekend when Copa America ends.

theaguia wrote:benz has done so well, i feel like this could be his season, and now we are thinking to offload him, its just preposterous

Done well in 2 months (out of 2 years). He may have potential but he hasn't earned his keep (aquistion costs and salary). Bottom line is there is more to Aquero than there is to Benzema.

chad4401 wrote:^^^nah that just your opinion

Stay tuned. I'm not wrong on any predictions thus far. I not predicting based on bias, it what I've been able to detect from club.

St_Nick09_of_Goal wrote:good to have you back bill, i have a question for you, are you familiar with "eleconomista"? are they reliable?

Thanks for the comment Nick and No, I'm not very familiar with El economista at all. By name it should be a business publication not deportes.