Re: The 2011 Summer Transfer Rumours Thread

[Jay29]

How long have we been in "advanced negotiations" with Gervinho?

If Jagielka is signed we can forget about Leighton Baines as a potential Clichy replacement, which suits me just fine.

Incidentally, Jagielka can play as a midfielder. He used to play there very often for Sheffield United.

[lenear1030]

i find it funny, wenger always tries to bring french players... and everyone is screaming for some domestic talent. Now, he tries to bring an EPL defender, but majority wants Sakho, a french guy!

it'd be different if the EPL defenders we're after were better than Sakho but they aren't.......

[Jay29]

It does seem a bit odd to me that after saying we need more height in our defence, Wenger goes for Jagielka who is 5'11''.

For this reason, I'm not sure if I can take this seriously. I know he's got a good leap and everything, but there's a difference between a big leap and just being a genuine monster in the air.

[EarlyPrototype]

Jagielka? Arsenal need much better players.

[usman111]

Chants are one of the few things that Opta do not keep track of these days but no doubt their boffins chuckled to themselves when Thomas Vermaelen headed a corner clear against Fulham last Sunday and the Arsenal fans giddily started singing, to the tune of White Stripes' Seven Nation Army, "We defended a corner! We defended a corner!" That was an appropriately sarcastic condemnation of the team that conceded a higher proportion of goals from set-pieces (53.5%) this season than any other in the Premier League.

It may have been Vermaelen's clearance that triggered Sunday's celebration, but that does not mean Arsenal would have defended set-pieces better throughout the campaign if the Belgian had been fit: they let in exactly the same number of goals from set-pieces this season as they did last season (23), when Vermaelen regularly featured.

That toll is almost double the number that Arsenal conceded during the 2008‑09 campaign (12), so what happened in the summer of 2009 that suddenly caused their set-piece defending to deteriorate? Sol Campbell left long before that (in his last season, 2005‑06, Arsenal only conceded nine goals from set-pieces) so perhaps Kolo Touré's departure to Manchester City had a bigger effect than is generally supposed? The Ivorian managed more headed clearances in his last season in London than any other Arsenal player – and his tally for that term, 129, is also more than any Arsenal player managed this season.

Craven Cottage is home to the side that conceded the fewest goals from set-pieces this season (10). Perhaps Arsène Wenger should revive his interest in Brede Hangeland and Mark Schwarzer? Hangeland, indeed, made more clearances (424) than any other player this season, with the exception of Blackpool's Ian Evatt (430).

SHOW ARSENAL DONT NEED HEIGHT TO DEFEND SET PLAYS

West Bromwich Albion were one of only three teams to concede more, in actual terms, from set-pieces than Arsenal, letting in 30 goals, followed by Aston Villa (27) (THEY HAVE ALOT HEIGHT IN DUNE AND COLLIN)and Sunderland (24).


Arsenal did do some things well, of course. They were the only team to average more than 60% possession in matches and, unsurprisingly, they completed the highest number of successful passes per game (444.8. Chelsea were second with 423.1) and the highest percentage of short passes (92.3%, ahead of Manchester City on 90.3%).


What is more, Opta's statistics also provide ammunition for Wenger's sob stories and conspiracy theories: Arsenal hit the woodwork more times than anyone else this season (22) and were also the victims of more straight red card offences than any other team (9). Mind you, Arsenal were no angels themselves, earning six red cards throughout the season, behind only West Brom (7). And Arsenal were not the most fouled team in quantitative terms – in fact, 12 teams suffered more fouls than Arsenal this season, Everton being the most wronged (victims of 525 fouls, followed by Newcastle with 509).






The Guardian, meanwhile, put up a huge article that is laden with Data titled Number-crunching makes grim reading for Arsenal’s defence. In this article they trot out Opta’s crown jewel of Arsenal statistics which says that Arsenal conceded more goals from set pieces than any other team. The number, so oft quoted that it’s practically burned into my retina, is that Arsenal conceded 53.5% of their Premier League goals (23 of the 43) from set pieces.

On the surface this is a damning number. But wait, what is a set piece? They don’t tell you but I will: a set piece is any penalty, corner, or free kick. Arsenal’s opponents were awarded a League leading 9 penalties of which they converted 6 — the second most in the Premier League behind Liverpool and Blackburn. Put another way, what they don’t tell you is that 26% of the goals conceded off “set pieces” came from penalties and 14% of Arsenal’s total goals conceded were from penalties.

They also don ‘t bother to show why penalties are important: Chelsea’s opponents scored 2 of the 3 penalties awarded against them, Manciti conceded 3 of 4 and Man U conceded 5 of 6. Which is 6%, 9%, and 13.5% of each team’s total goals allowed respectively.

The other thing that’s not broken down in that big number is where Arsenal stand in terms of each type of set piece. You might be surprised to know that Arsenal allowed just 8 goals from corners and that the League average is 7.3 and that we allowed 9 from actual set pieces.

You might also be surprised to know that Arsenal’s defending from set pieces has actually gotten better this year from last. Both Arsenal last year and this conceded 23 goals off set plays. Since Arsenal allowed 41 last year and 43 this year, that means that as a percentage of total goals allowed, Arsenal are three percentage points better off conceding from set pieces. If you remove the penalties from the equation, which I suggest should be done due to the controversial nature of their award, then Arsenal conceded 18 goals off actual set plays last year and 17 this. Meaning that Arsenal conceded 44% of their goals off set plays last year and 39.5% this.

Does this weakness from corners and set pieces indicate a problem at Arsenal? It really seems like it, but I’d suggest that we need to look at several factors that contribute to the success of this tactic against the Gunners.

The first is conceding free kicks in dangerous areas. Having looked at most of the Guardian Chalkboards this season, my gut feeling is that Arsenal concede more free kicks in our defensive half of the field than any other team. It’s one of the numbers that I’m keen to look into but haven’t yet because it means painstakingly looking at every game, for every team. Yet it would be fascinating to see what Arsenal’s ratio of free-kicks to set piece goals is as compared to say, United.

The second thing we’d need to look at then is what ratio of fouls conceded in Arsenal’s area are converted into goals from set pieces. The problem is that we don’t know and the Journo who baited that trap above doesn’t really care to look at the data that he has access to and I don’t. Why? Probably because it’s not the narrative he wants to tell. He wants to confirm the idea that Arsenal are vulnerable from set plays, not tell the facts about Arsenal’s season, because confirming a dominant narrative sells papers.

If Arsenal were truly weak from set plays then we should see a high ratio of goals conceded off fouls in their defensive area. It could be true and it’s something that needs looking into if one is to make any kind of real analysis of the set pieces number. Maybe I’ll do a little every night this Summer?

The point of all this is that while I am “guilty” of using Newsroom Stats I am open and honest about why (because I don’t have access to the data that they do) and I am always open about how I could be wrong. Meanwhile, the so-called journalists who are supposed to be objectively looking at data and reporting the facts, are not.


SOURCES http://www.7amkickoff.com/2011/newsroom-statistics-dominate-plus-paddy/comment-page-1/
http://www.guardian.co.uk/football/blog/2011/may/26/premier-league-opta-statistics

[KMD]

really nice article, media today is very misleading...

it proves we don't need hight, we need good defenders, good coach for them and a tactician!

[REWB]

Jagielka? Arsenal need much better players.

god, jagielka SUCKKKKKKSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSS he's sooooooooo shit..come on wenger

who is that arsenal legend that always comes on talksport and always says that jagielka has poor positioning, and is not a good reader of the game? i forgot his name but that guy know his stuff, not as stupid as adrian duram who keeps on overrating english players

and samba..............loool omg i feel sorry for arsenal

[Spider]

Who do you think we should get then REWB

[boss]

@RedEyesWhiteBeard: what do u mind about Shaqiri,Xhaka,Mehmedi,Abrashi & Kasami then ...i mean >>!!!
Will they win Euro U21 Champions Tittle tonight....! ha ha haaa..LoooL... PS: I'v rep.@ur post ..to a different topic..

[REWB]

Christian Zapata

Sahko

Rami ( should have got him, too late now)

i also liked fazio

i used to be for english players but ever since man utd got jones AND smalling, who were by far the best english central defensive young talents there is nothing left. why do you think man utd is never linked with cahil/samba/ jagi?? because they all SUCK and fergi know that they are shit and are just overrated by the english media

[Jay29]

Or it could be because United already have two world class defenders in Ferdinand and Vidic and thus don't need another first team central defender.

Being linked with the top clubs is not indicative of a player's quality.

[REWB]

@RedEyesWhiteBeard: what do u mind about Shaqiri,Xhaka,Mehmedi,Abrashi & Kasami then ...i mean >>!!!
Will they win Euro U21 Champions Tittle tonight....! ha ha haaa..LoooL... PS: I'v rep.@ur post ..to a different topic..

i have been very very impressed with them, shaqiri and xhaka have stood out the most. i think they can beat spain who haven't really faced anyone impressive so far, Switzerland will be by far spains toughest test. im very excited to watch this match

[REWB]

Or it could be because United already have two world class defenders in Ferdinand and Vidic and thus don't need another first team central defender.

Being linked with the top clubs is not indicative of a player's quality.

ferdi is very injury prone, he knows this....so he went out to get a defender...instead of buying cahil, he opted to take a risk in an inexperience youngster instead in the form of smalling....cahil would easly leave Bolton and stay on the bench for man utd until ferdi retires or leaves, but fergie didnt even look at him, same as all the others.

seriously.....its embarrassing that arsenal have to result to buying players like samba...wtf a 29 year old from blackburn, a relegation team that concedes lots of goals. oh well maybe we can chuck samba in for the one off physical games in the epl. he is not cl quality.

[Spider]

Christian Zapata

Sahko

Rami ( should have got him, too late now)

i also liked fazio

[color=darkred]
Shako ( I agree )

Rami ( i don't think so )

Zapata ( also agree but i think he is kinda slow )

i used to be for english players but ever since man utd got jones AND smalling, who were by far the best english central defensive young talents there is nothing left. why do you think man utd is never linked with cahil/samba/ jagi?? because they all SUCK and fergi know that they are shit and are just overrated by the english media

Idk maybe cause they already have that tybe of defenders in Rio and Vidic + they may think that Cahill is over priced like we do

+ I really don't rate Smalling at all , all he can do is ummmm i really don't know cause he can't head the ball right , can't pass , awful positioning , He may get better next year so i guess i should wait and see before i give my final word on him

[Jay29]

ferdi is very injury prone, he knows this....so he went out to get a defender...instead of buying cahil, he opted to take a risk in an inexperience youngster instead in the form of smalling....cahil would easly leave Bolton and stay on the bench for man utd until ferdi retires or leaves, but fergie didnt even look at him, same as all the others.

Smalling was cheaper and younger. United needed a centre back for the future because Johnny Evans hadn't turned out like expected.

Circumstances dictate signings. United were never going to splash £15,000,000 on a defender who'd sit on the bench. Paying half the price for a younger but still capable defender was a much better move, since not only does he get a good backup but also a player for the future. Ferguson is building for the future.

seriously.....its embarrassing that arsenal have to result to buying players like samba...wtf a 29 year old from blackburn, a relegation team that concedes lots of goals. oh well maybe we can chuck samba in for the one off physical games in the epl. he is not cl quality.

1) He's 27.

2) Phil Jones is also from a relegation team that conceded lots of goals, so he also must be rubbish by your logic.

3) He's not Champions League quality even though he's never had the chance to play in the Champions League. I cam easily say the same about Zapata, Sakho and Rami.

[REWB]

ferdi is very injury prone, he knows this....so he went out to get a defender...instead of buying cahil, he opted to take a risk in an inexperience youngster instead in the form of smalling....cahil would easly leave Bolton and stay on the bench for man utd until ferdi retires or leaves, but fergie didnt even look at him, same as all the others.

Smalling was cheaper and younger. United needed a centre back for the future because Johnny Evans hadn't turned out like expected.

Circumstances dictate signings. United were never going to splash £15,000,000 on a defender who'd sit on the bench. Paying half the price for a younger but still capable defender was a much better move, since not only does he get a good backup but also a player for the future. Ferguson is building for the future.

seriously.....its embarrassing that arsenal have to result to buying players like samba...wtf a 29 year old from blackburn, a relegation team that concedes lots of goals. oh well maybe we can chuck samba in for the one off physical games in the epl. he is not cl quality.

1) He's 27.

2) Phil Jones is also from a relegation team that conceded lots of goals, so he also must be rubbish by your logic.

3) He's not Champions League quality even though he's never had the chance to play in the Champions League. I cam easily say the same about Zapata, Sakho and Rami.

1) oky.....

2) phil jones is much younger and can improve so id prefer him to samba who is 27 and looks like a 40 year old.

3) i never said he is not cl quality because he hasn't played cl did i? i said that from watching him and his style of play. at least those names have some international cap with quality teams, what national team does samba play for again? ...congo.....okayy

i know your a samba fan boy....and there no point arguing on this because i can never change your mind, if we get samba we will see what happens...

[Jay29]

3) i never said he is not cl quality because he hasn't played cl did i? i said that from watching him and his style of play. at least those names have some international cap with quality teams, what national team does samba play for again? ...congo.....okayy

You've missed my point.

You can't say someone is not good enough for the Champions League when they player has never played a Champions League game. All you can do is speculate based on his attributes and that is not a definitive means of judgment.

And so what if he plays for Congo? Since when did what nation your play for define how good you will be in Europe?

i know your a samba fan boy....and there no point arguing on this because i can never change your mind, if we get samba we will see what happens...

This is irrelevant since I'm debating the logic of your argument, not the quality of the player we're debating.

[REWB]

3) i never said he is not cl quality because he hasn't played cl did i? i said that from watching him and his style of play. at least those names have some international cap with quality teams, what national team does samba play for again? ...congo.....okayy

You've missed my point.

You can't say someone is not good enough for the Champions League when they player has never played a Champions League game. All you can do is speculate based on his attributes and that is not a definitive means of judgment.

And so what if he plays for Congo? Since when did what nation your play for define how good you will be in Europe?

i know your a samba fan boy....and there no point arguing on this because i can never change your mind, if we get samba we will see what happens...

This is irrelevant since I'm debating the logic of your argument, not the quality of the player we're debating.

all in all i hope i am proved wrong, when i see a poster like you back samba up, then it gives me hope that he might be a good player for us. you might have more knowledge in his abilities then me, so lets hope you are right about him.

[usman111]

I am not going into another discussion about samba. I think samba is good in some areas and weak in some areas also. Overall he is not a complete defender and buying him does not guarantee less goals from set plays.
It is a risk and for 15million its too much for arsenal. If arsenal can get him around 8 million its a value for money buy and can improve the squad to some extent.
Arsenal already have decent defenders the goal should be to keep them fit and confident. There is no need to splash the cash in this area. What is needed? A good coach and tactics.

I would not mind another defensive mid fielder. Melo or mvilla would be an excellenT. Basically a well known figure who can contribute in set plays as well. Diaby is already an option but he needs to impote on his heading. Otherwise height wise he is an ideal player to help arsenal in set plays.

On gervinho and alvarez. I do not think arsenal need these additions. As arsenal have a policy to promote youngster i would like freeman or vela to replace bendtner and denilson should be sold and frimpong promoted. It is vital that arsenal keep rosiscky. He has arsenalised experience which will be needed in closing games due to his passing and possession skills.
Plus one goal keeper should be added like buffon.
So basically if arsenal has cash it should use it on proper world class signing not on players which will blossom in a few years time. One goalie and one def mid is what arsenal need.

[Lex]

Next friday, i think we will reveal 3 signings

Samba
Alvarez
Gervinho

Tell me how i should feel about these signings, guys. Should i be pleased, or disappointed?

[Jay29]

I am not going into another discussion about samba. I think samba is good in some areas and weak in some areas also. Overall he is not a complete defender and buying him does not guarantee less goals from set plays.
It is a risk and for 15million its too much for arsenal. If arsenal can get him around 8 million its a value for money buy and can improve the squad to some extent.

I actually do agree with this. £15,000,000 is too much for Samba and the absolute maximum I'd pay for him is £12,000,000. If we can't get his price down we'd be better off looking elsewhere.

Arsenal already have decent defenders the goal should be to keep them fit and confident. There is no need to splash the cash in this area. What is needed? A good coach and tactics.

I would buy a centre back who is better than Squillaci. I've not seen enough from him to justify that confidence is all he needs to improve.

I would not mind another defensive mid fielder. Melo or mvilla would be an excellenT. Basically a well known figure who can contribute in set plays as well. Diaby is already an option but he needs to impote on his heading. Otherwise height wise he is an ideal player to help arsenal in set plays.

Melo and M'Villa would cost too much, especially since all we need in DM is a competent backup player that we can use for when Song isn't available. Like how we shouldn't splash a lot on money on a fourth choice central defender, we shouldn't splash a lot on a backup defensive midfielder.

Diaby needs to improve in a lot more areas than his heading ability.

On gervinho and alvarez. I do not think arsenal need these additions. As arsenal have a policy to promote youngster i would like freeman or vela to replace bendtner and denilson should be sold and frimpong promoted. It is vital that arsenal keep rosiscky. He has arsenalised experience which will be needed in closing games due to his passing and possession skills.

Freeman is far from ready for a first team spot and Vela is still very much an unproven quantity as are all our youngsters.

We're not really in a position to rely on youth players for backup. We're not in a position where we can turn down a more proven talent in favour of our youth policy.

Right now, Rosicky is close to useless, Arshavin is inconsistent as hell and there's a very good chance Nasri will leave us. We need good reinforcement in this area.

It is not vital we keep Rosicky, since he hardly contributes anything to the side.

Plus one goal keeper should be added like buffon.

A goalkeeper is one of the last things we need at the moment.

[Jay29]

Next friday, i think we will reveal 3 signings

Samba
Alvarez
Gervinho

Tell me how i should feel about these signings, guys. Should i be pleased, or disappointed?

Neither. You shouldn't be disappointed because, really, these are typical Arsenal buys and you shouldn't be expecting any stellar names. At the same time, you shouldn't be pleased without knowing how good these guys actually are at this level.

So come join me on the fence.

[RealGunner]

i actually have high hopes from Alvarez n Gervinho

Maybe we can earth a ronaldo like player in the shape of Alvarez

Im confident with Gervinho, he will be excellent.

[Spider]

Do we have a DM role ?? Seriously
Well it looks like no one understood what i was trying to say -.-
Cause all i can see is song playing as a CAM he keeps pushing forward like a freak and as a result we keep getting hit by counter attacks

What i'm trying to say here is it dosen't matter if we get melo , Mvilla or even Essien cause at the end they will play with same tactics

[Raptorgunner]

Samba is a beast, but for the price they are asking I rather he stays at Blackburn. We dont really need a world class defender, since the defender we want he could be our 3rd or 4th choice player, so is it really worth it to spend a15 mill on that player?

Did Laurent Koscielny have any CL experience no he did not, does not matter where a player comes from its all about heart and commitment to the team. Laurent Koscielny was one of the best defender in CL last year.

We could sign the best defenders in the world and it wont solve Arsenal's problem, Arsenal must learn how to defend as a team.

[usman111]

Between 10-12million would be ok if we somehow manage to sell siquallaci. If those blackburn owners demand more i would rather sign Robert Huth from stoke.
Apart from that bartley should be kept and miquel loaned out.

Arsenal have a budget of around 60mil so wenger can buy these players easily. If a backup dm can come in second half and help to see out the game i would for sure buy him. Neither of wilshere, fab, nasri,wallcott, arshavin are great at heading the problem lies here. This is also a reason why i thought wenger wanted to buy both gervinho and ricky bcoz he could use their height in the attack and defence. I would rather have a genuine defensive mid. Plus if you look at man united they have fletcher and carrick who help in set plays arsenal just have song who is also not excellent in heading the ball away. Chelsea have lampard, essien, ramires. This says alot.

On rosiscky i wont sell him because injuries have destroyed him but recently he managed a few games and i hope after a decent pre season he would be back. Arshavin no chance for him to go. He needs to retire here. Even when he is inconsistent u never know what he night do next.
If nasri leaves sign ricky or gervinho as they are realistic buys though god knows how they will turn out. talks are still going on with nasri and arsenal have lined up these players in case they break down. That is why they keep delaying it.
Vela needs game time but that depends if you are willing to take a risk on him or sign gervinho.
Diaby is not a bad player if you look at him playing for france team he would justify himself as a good squad player.

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