Nishank wrote:
LFC's next 5 games: Stoke (A), Villa (H), Everton (H), WBA (A), Arsenal (H). Incredibly last season, we got just 1 point from these fixtures

12 points would be great from the next 5, IMO 15 is possible

At worst 10 would be acceptable.

If we get anywhere between 10-15 points in those 5 matches, and all of our other matches remain in the proximity of what we got in them last season then 70+ points is definitive. I think 75 points is going to get CL this season because it's so competitive at the top, lower than that could be a risk.

Nishank wrote:
LFC's next 5 games: Stoke (A), Villa (H), Everton (H), WBA (A), Arsenal (H). Incredibly last season, we got just 1 point from these fixtures

out of those three are home but two of them are against Everton and Arsenal. There are other three which can be won given the return of few players,one of them at home and on paper thing. Let's see one by one and we will come back here to strike each after a game

McAgger wrote:If we get anywhere between 10-15 points in those 5 matches, and all of our other matches remain in the proximity of what we got in them last season then 70+ points is definitive. I think 75 points is going to get CL this season because it's so competitive at the top, lower than that could be a risk.

I disagree, I think competitive at the top means more people dropping points - everyone is close in skill level so things will stay tight. I think top 4 is going to be a lower points total than usual, but 3rd-8th will be very close together. Just means we need to pick up a lot now so we don't have to stress too much about the run in.

Nah my view is that the top 8 or whatever teams are just too good for the rest of the league so surprise losses of points will be much fewer than in the previous seasons so banana skin matches like the Stoke away will be crucial.

Arsenal: Villa (A), Fulham (H), Southampton (A), Palace (H) and Liverpool (A).
City: Newcastle (A), Cardiff (H), Spurs (A), Chelsea (H) and Norwich (A).
Chelsea: Hull (A), United (H), WHU (H), City (A) and Newcastle (H).
Everton: Norwich (H), WBA (A), Liverpool (A), Villa (H) and Spurs (A).
Tottenham: Palace (H), Swansea (A), City (H), Hull (A) and Everton (H).
United: Swansea (H), Chelsea (A), Cardiff (H), Stoke (A) and Fulham (H).

I don't see Arsenal, City or Chelsea dropping points against the lesser teams. Everton, Tottenham & United MAY drop some points against the lesser teams. While City and Chelsea MIGHT drop A FEW points against the T8 teams. So if we drop points against Stoke, Villa or WBA; these teams will either be pulling further away or gaining on us. While the skirmish among the T8 wouldn’t do us any good if we don’t take points off Everton and Arsenal too.

We are FOUR points behind Chelsea (3rd) but only ONE point ahead of Everton (5th). That gives us very little margin for error. Anything less than 11 points from these five matches would put us in a precarious position. While City & Chelsea have already hitting their strides, Everton doesn’t seem to be running out of steam and even Tottenham seems to be finding a foothold.

Good list Ifti
Arsenal, Everton and Liverpool have the least probability to drop points in the next 5 games then

Update OP

Looking at this, if we drop every game against top teams the rest of the way (Everton and up), we can still be +17 on the season, which would put us at 78. 78 is comfortably top 4. We can possibly drop two, maybe even three of the games against lower teams and still come out at or close to the 70 it generally seems to take.

Seems to me that we've given ourselves a little breathing room, mathematically speaking. Maybe all those lost "must-wins" at the beginning of the year weren't "must-wins" after all.

They were only must wins if we challenged for the tittle, the second half of the season i think isn't as easy as everyone thinks, granted we do have all the top teams at home bar united, they are still all hard games. We have all the bottom teams away, who now will have that extra grit to maybe grind out a result.

stevieg8 wrote:Looking at this, if we drop every game against top teams the rest of the way (Everton and up), we can still be +17 on the season, which would put us at 78.  78 is comfortably top 4.  We can possibly drop two, maybe even three of the games against lower teams and still come out at or close to the 70 it generally seems to take.

Seems to me that we've given ourselves a little breathing room, mathematically speaking.  Maybe all those lost "must-wins" at the beginning of the year weren't "must-wins" after all.

Every game is just as important as another. 3 points at the end of the day, is 3 points.

And can we stop saying we need 7x points to get into the top 4 please. It's NEVER been this competitive before. It's a whole new era in the PL. SEVEN TEAMS fighting for FOUR spots. You can't just say we need X points to get in. It's never been this close before.

And we can't drop 1 point against a "top team". Not when we've already dropped points away. We can't just give points to our rivals. I'd rather lose to West Ham than I would against a I don't know, an Arsenal.

mr-r34 wrote:They were only must wins if we challenged for the tittle, the second half of the season i think isn't as easy as everyone thinks, granted we do have all the top teams at home bar united, they are still all hard games. We have all the bottom teams away, who now will have that extra grit to maybe grind out a result.

My point exactly.

Everyone here assumes we're going to win every game just because we're playing at home. But it won't be easy. We haven't exactly vsed a top team in the league yet, so we won't know how we're going to set up. And these "top teams" we're going to vs actually ARE must win games, as we've dropped points against the top teams. You can't just drop points to your rivals, and not just gain 'em back. We need to win those games.

Our away form (AND PERFORMANCES) haven't been the best. I've continued attacked it and I will continue to do so until we start taking away games seriously. Because we haven't.

Yes, we won against Stoke. YES I'M HAPPY WE WON BEFORE I GET QUOTED 10 TIMES AGAIN. But the performance wasn't good. And the performance wasn't a one off which is why I brought it up. So yes, our away performances / results are a problem and they can hurt when it comes to end of the season. We must take every game seriously, let it be home or away. Experimentations away from home is the reason why clubs in "crisis'" have caught up to us. This counter-attacking style DOESN'T SUIT US. We've won what, 15 points? out of a possible 33... that's not good.  

The second half of the season opens up, normally after February. Teams start wanting to play football to get results to either avoid relegation or hunt for a European spot so games open up. Like the Stoke City game yesterday. Both teams had numerous chances, and both defences crumbled. It was an open free flowing game. If SAS are healthy, I'm sure we'll be okay. (Coutinho will start to shine now, still need to make signings... but that's for another thread.) But our half-arsed performances away from home will be the reason we didn't get CL if we don't get top 4. Which isn't "progress under BR" because Suarez will go and then well, we're in trouble. He's sort of carried us this season...

Red Alert wrote:

mr-r34 wrote:They were only must wins if we challenged for the tittle, the second half of the season i think isn't as easy as everyone thinks, granted we do have all the top teams at home bar united, they are still all hard games. We have all the bottom teams away, who now will have that extra grit to maybe grind out a result.

My point exactly.

Everyone here assumes we're going to win every game just because we're playing at home. But it won't be easy. We haven't exactly vsed a top team in the league yet, so we won't know how we're going to set up. And these "top teams" we're going to vs actually ARE must win games, as we've dropped points against the top teams. You can't just drop points to your rivals, and not just gain 'em back. We need to win those games.

I am not sure if anyone assumed here that way, they just throught that now the games are at
home so at least we have less probability to drop points against these teams in fact I specifically commented that there is nothing to be so much happy about having these games at home unless and until we see how we perform against them at home.
The first time to see if we can do that, will be against Everton.

Winter transfer window 11/12, 19 games played 34pts. Fighting for top 4. We're like 4 points out iirc with an "easy" second half run in. Lucas gets serious injury, keeps him out for the season. We don't buy or loan anyone this window when it's clear we need cover for him. Result: We get 18 points out of the next possible 57. This results in Dalglish getting the sack at the end of the season.

Winter transfer window 13/14, 22 games played 43pts... fighting for top 4. Lucas gets seriously injured. Liverpool doesn't spend in this window when it's clear we need inforcements. How many points can we receive out of a possible 48?   

How many points can we receive out of a possible 48?

32???

you mean 2 Points per game, I think that's possible and we might edge ahead of other Teams because of Goal difference, we are still not far away from our track.
Although I must say, the stats listed by Red Alert is horrifying but hopefully this year it will be different because we are scoring more Goals than our Opponent to win the matches

4th place competition comparison mofos

Mcagger pic doesn't work =[

really? it's working for me

here's the link
https://2img.net/r/ihimizer/v2/431x97q90/845/tk6t.png

works now.

We have the second best goal difference in the league after City.



We need to continue beating the "top" teams.

They're proven to be a lot more than "6 pointers".

We're 3 points above Spurs, but really, we're 4 points up unless they score 30+ goals in one game because of our superior goal difference.

7 points above United too. A win/draw is required at OT.

We could leapfrog on top of Chelsea with our GD as we're not far behind and we have the easier fixtures out of the next month. We're 4 points behind, but they face a massive game against City at the Etihad on the weekend and let's not forget we still have to vs them at Anfield.

February is huge. We can potentially get 12 points out of 4 games, assuming we can beat Arsenal at Anfield and actually turn up on the road against West Brom and Fulham...

Arsenal have a difficult Feb (including PL, CL and FA cup), and Chelsea do too. Chelsea can't let it slip as they face City, Everton and Newcastle in the league. They can potentially drop points, so we have to take advantage of it.

We just need to stay consistent, and continue picking up 3 points. Much easier said than done, but the reward will be well worth it.

please open it in a new tab, this GL image uploading thing sucks big time   
Btw, the only flaw in this thing is it can not be expected that the teams will get result, by comparing the last season's H2H results but still a good insight

McAgger wrote:4th place competition comparison mofos

all I care is beating Spurs and ManUtd, then we are surely finishing fourth

well out of City, Chelsea and Arsenal if we beat one of them i will start doing:

.......................
and draw the other two matches, that will be bonus for me

McAgger, can you please update the table. Btw, some stats:

This was before the WBA game.

Goal difference stays the same, we "gain" a point.

Thanks ynwa for updating the table
We are at 47 points as of now and 34 points last season so there is a definite improvement compared to last season. Assuming we need in total 71 points to finish in top 4, we still need 24 more points from next 14 games (meaning from next 42 points). Which means we need 1.72 points/game from now on.  So those 24 points mean we need 8 wins OR 7 wins and three draws. It doesnt seem to be such a difficult task, we are still in the right direction and on course, so we can do it boys

Where as ManUtd need 31 points more to finish at 71 points which is frrracking 2.22points/game, which is like championship winning form. I dont mean to say its impossible but very very difficult for them to continue such a form given the fact that they are still in CL.

Well I think Everton may finish closer to us than Spurs and Scums so we should keep an eye on the blues, the result they managed to get against Villa inspite of missing several important players, it means they have definitely it going under martinez.