Hitler and the euro

by Yuri Yukuv Thu Dec 08, 2011 11:22 pm

Suck it Euroland! Back to D-Marks and pesos we go Razz

by Swanhends Fri Dec 09, 2011 12:22 am

What exactly is going on in Europe? In economic terms?

by VivaStPauli Fri Dec 09, 2011 12:51 am

A lot of crying, and in the end, we'll buy everyone :coffee:

by Yuri Yukuv Fri Dec 09, 2011 1:16 am

VivaStPauli wrote:A lot of crying, and in the end, we'll buy everyone

Thats the amazing thing, germany cant save europe anymore! They can only shift the debt to themselves without equity and make the ponzi run longer! The germans thought they could trick the market through forced PSI, now the market will bring the war to berlin via roma!

by Yuri Yukuv Fri Dec 09, 2011 1:17 am

bhends wrote:What exactly is going on in Europe? In economic terms?

Here is a good interview, he makes a good description, however such a bad bad set of conclusion and demands

by Guest Fri Dec 09, 2011 3:01 am

I hate the fact that Hitler ruined the little mustache for everyone else.

by RealGunner Fri Dec 09, 2011 3:06 pm

UK not with the rest of the Europe in their fiscal plan

GET INNNNNN

by spanky Fri Dec 09, 2011 3:18 pm

europe will be fine just like america is now.

by Grande_Milano Fri Dec 09, 2011 3:30 pm

US is the one interested in Eurozone. If countries like Spain, Italy, UK, France, Germany will breakout, they ll be able to set their own economic policy, and later own political policy. More competitors on world stage. US the one build Eurozone

All others benefit:

-End of multiculturalist (thats only taken in Europe in the world) politics eroding cultures and values

-End of left wing liberals and their marxist plans

-Nation states back with common sense

-Rest of world benefits, as independent countries are no longer pawns

by Raptorgunner Fri Dec 09, 2011 3:32 pm

spanky489 wrote:europe will be fine just like america is now.

Hitler and the euro Not-sure-if-serious-drama-or-just-plain-trollin

by Yuri Yukuv Fri Dec 09, 2011 8:06 pm

RealGunner wrote:UK not with the rest of the Europe in their fiscal plan

GET INNNNNN

UK is irrelevant and immaterial

by Yuri Yukuv Fri Dec 09, 2011 8:07 pm

Grande_Milano wrote:US is the one interested in Eurozone. If countries like Spain, Italy, UK, France, Germany will breakout, they ll be able to set their own economic policy, and later own political policy. More competitors on world stage. US the one build Eurozone

All others benefit:

-End of multiculturalist (thats only taken in Europe in the world) politics eroding cultures and values

-End of left wing liberals and their marxist plans

-Nation states back with common sense

-Rest of world benefits, as independent countries are no longer pawns

Im pretty sure the eurozone and by extension the euro were created to establish an economic and political counterweight to the united states. Mass defaults would be bad for the US right now because there is material risk of contagion.

Theoretically the progressive left would probably fair better long term if there a euro break up right now because there will be no need for government contraction of expenditures and balancing budgets with more currency being printer.

by RealGunner Fri Dec 09, 2011 9:50 pm

Yuri Yukuv wrote:
RealGunner wrote:UK not with the rest of the Europe in their fiscal plan

GET INNNNNN

UK is irrelevant and immaterial

why and how

by BarrileteCosmico Fri Dec 09, 2011 9:59 pm

Lol that video has so many mistakes... either way, I don't see why anyone would care (market included) about S&P. If the 2009 recession showed anything is that they have no clue and serious conflicts of interests. If investors want an assessment of risk they need to look no further than government bond yields...

Also: Germany is big winner of the sovereign debt crisis, or was until a few months ago. Their bond yields decreased because of the rush to quality for much of the past 2 years, and it's their banks the ones that made a series of bad loans to the periphery countries. Not to mention that Germany has benefited from the eurozone tremendously. They broke the eurozone rules and standards many more times than other periphery countries and yet believe they have moral superiority.

The bottom line: they will come up with some grand plan to implement, the periphery will promise to uphold these, and the ECB will step in to guarantee their bonds (essentially monetizing the debt, but they have little choice).

by TheRedStag Fri Dec 09, 2011 10:07 pm

The easiest way to analyse all this is simply to agree that Germany and France *bleep* us good.

by Yuri Yukuv Sun Dec 11, 2011 10:22 pm

BarrileteCosmico wrote:Lol that video has so many mistakes... either way, I don't see why anyone would care (market included) about S&P. If the 2009 recession showed anything is that they have no clue and serious conflicts of interests. If investors want an assessment of risk they need to look no further than government bond yields...

Also: Germany is big winner of the sovereign debt crisis, or was until a few months ago. Their bond yields decreased because of the rush to quality for much of the past 2 years, and it's their banks the ones that made a series of bad loans to the periphery countries. Not to mention that Germany has benefited from the eurozone tremendously. They broke the eurozone rules and standards many more times than other periphery countries and yet believe they have moral superiority.

The bottom line: they will come up with some grand plan to implement, the periphery will promise to uphold these, and the ECB will step in to guarantee their bonds (essentially monetizing the debt, but they have little choice).

I need to go to sleep now, but you make very good points kudos. However the situation is not as simple as you might think.

Great reply.

by kiranr Mon Dec 12, 2011 9:38 pm

RealGunner wrote:UK not with the rest of the Europe in their fiscal plan

GET INNNNNN

I have to admit, i never expected this from UK. In my opinion, kudos to the UK for not following poor German policies.

by kiranr Mon Dec 12, 2011 9:59 pm

BarrileteCosmico wrote:Lol that video has so many mistakes... either way, I don't see why anyone would care (market included) about S&P. If the 2009 recession showed anything is that they have no clue and serious conflicts of interests. If investors want an assessment of risk they need to look no further than government bond yields...

Also: Germany is big winner of the sovereign debt crisis, or was until a few months ago. Their bond yields decreased because of the rush to quality for much of the past 2 years, and it's their banks the ones that made a series of bad loans to the periphery countries. Not to mention that Germany has benefited from the eurozone tremendously. They broke the eurozone rules and standards many more times than other periphery countries and yet believe they have moral superiority.

The bottom line: they will come up with some grand plan to implement, the periphery will promise to uphold these, and the ECB will step in to guarantee their bonds (essentially monetizing the debt, but they have little choice).

I dont think the ECB will step in to monetize. How can they monetize Italy's 150 million euros up for redemption soon with only a 200 million war chest? It's very difficult considering they have others from the PIIGS too. Plus, just think about the social imbalance that is going to happen due to these austerity measures? Europe will muddle through the next decade with next to no growth for the rest of the decade if the German plan is implemented.

I just dont see the benefits of staying in the Euro in such a scenario.

by BarrileteCosmico Tue Dec 13, 2011 5:13 am

Kiranr the ECB doesn't have a warchest, it can print money. As much as it wants. But it doesn't want to, because spending money would be inflationary and the ECB is traditionally hawkish (wrongly, I might add). Besides, they wouldn't buy bonds, they would only guarantee that Italy & Spain won't default, bring back confidence into the markets and thus investors would demand lower rates making it possible for these countries to reform and get rid of their illiquid status. It would be monetizing the debt because it would ensure that the government would borrow at a lower cost, but unlike traditional monetizing it wouldn't actually do any purchases.

by kiranr Tue Dec 13, 2011 6:00 am

BarrileteCosmico wrote:Kiranr the ECB doesn't have a warchest, it can print money. As much as it wants. But it doesn't want to, because spending money would be inflationary and the ECB is traditionally hawkish (wrongly, I might add). Besides, they wouldn't buy bonds, they would only guarantee that Italy & Spain won't default, bring back confidence into the markets and thus investors would demand lower rates making it possible for these countries to reform and get rid of their illiquid status. It would be monetizing the debt because it would ensure that the government would borrow at a lower cost, but unlike traditional monetizing it wouldn't actually do any purchases.

Apparently printing money is not a part of its mandate. It is supposedly against the law and they are can only set the monetary policy. Atleast that is the sense i got from following the events over the past 2 months.

And about guaranteeing it, it could be possible, maybe the fiscal union is the cue ECB is waiting for. But it has to step in and announce it. It has categorically stated that even after the fiscal union that is being discussed is implemented, it will not buy the Italian and Spanish bonds which is pretty much equivalent to guaranteeing it IMO as it is against the law and Germany are not going to allow it in either case.

That is why a stability mechanism is being discussed which will serve as the guarantee for bonds of Eurozone countries. However, that fund is quite less. They have decided to put only 500 billion euros in it, and that seems quite inadequate.

Basically, the ECB has to step in and say it will monetize the debt or EU has to generate a huge war chest which will serve as a back-up or guarantee, neither of which looks like happening right now.

by BarrileteCosmico Tue Dec 13, 2011 2:53 pm

Monetary policy is printing money (not in a literal sense, of course, most money is virtual nowadays). The function of any central bank is to make sure aggregate demand is kept at a stable place through money injections into the economy.

by VivaStPauli Tue Dec 13, 2011 4:43 pm

This will all just serve to make the rest of Europe our bitch.

Enjoy your Sauerkraut, Italians, and you'll finally have proper beer, Brits.

You're welcome.
:coffee:

by kiranr Tue Dec 13, 2011 4:45 pm

BarrileteCosmico wrote:Monetary policy is printing money (not in a literal sense, of course, most money is virtual nowadays). The function of any central bank is to make sure aggregate demand is kept at a stable place through money injections into the economy.

Yeah, what i meant was they have a mandate only to control inflation by setting interest rates. Off late they have been making bond purchases, but not at a significant level to cause any serious change in money supply.

I am not too well versed with the definitions, but to me the government with their fiscal policy affects money supply more than the central bank with the buying and selling of bonds to change the bank reserves. There was a recent article by the fed that they money multiplier model that they follow does not create reserves like they expected which means the model is not correct. As i said, i dont know the entire system, so i may be wrong here...

by kiranr Tue Dec 13, 2011 4:46 pm

VivaStPauli wrote:This will all just serve to make the rest of Europe our bitch.

Enjoy your Sauerkraut, Italians, and you'll finally have proper beer, Brits.

You're welcome.

Not if no one has any money to spend, thanks to Germany! Evil or Very Mad

by VivaStPauli Tue Dec 13, 2011 4:55 pm

Whatevs. United States of Europe are on the horizon. Official language will be German, and wearing white socks underneath sandals will be mandatory, while on vacation.

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