How well will Arsenal do this upcoming season?

A club's performance in the summer transfer window can have a large effect on a fan's mindset. Just by looking around various message boards and talking to fans, you can feel a sense of optimism going into this campaign, purely because our summer has been a good one. This is in stark contrast to last season, where doom and gloom was the order of the day.

Being one of those fans who are feeling optimistic, I'm going to speculate on how well Arsenal will perform this season. To do this, I will analyse the state of the squad, the tactics that will be used a couple of miscellaneous factors before reaching a sensible (hopefully) conclusion.

To start off with then, let's look at the squad and how it compares to last season's, which finished third.

The Squad

Goalkeepers

Last Season: Wojciech Szczesny, Lukasz Fabianski, Manuel Almunia
This Season: Wojciech Szczesny, Lukasz Fabianski, Vito Mannone

The only change here is Mannone taking the number three spot vacated by Almunia, which is fairly inconsequential since it's unlikely he'll see any action in the first team bar the odd cup game. Szczesny has taken the no. 1 shirt and will continue to be first choice. He had a decent year last season but there are some doubts about him that he'll need to dispel this season if he is to enter the upper echelon of goalkeepers. Fabianski is a decent back-up.

Centre Backs

Last Season: Laurent Koscielny, Thomas Vermaelen, Per Mertesacker, Johan Djourou, Sebastien Squillaci
This Season: Laurent Koscielny, Thomas Vermaelen, Per Mertesacker, Johan Djourou, Kyle Bartley

The area of the team that nobody is ever satisfied with has only seen one change in fifth choice defender. The first choice partnership should be Koscielny and Vermaelen, which is a nicely balanced partnership. Koscielny had a great season last year and at his best he is one of the best central defenders in the league. Vermaelen, once considered our best defender, has some improving to do after showing last season that, while he is still as assertive and no-nonsense as ever, he is prone to making one too many mistakes.

Mertesacker and Djourou divide opinion. Mertesacker is something of a niche defender who has glaring weaknesses but what he does do he does extremely well. For the moment, I see him as a good back-up option, but if he learns how to better cope with the physicality of the Premier League, he can compete for a starting spot. Djourou just has to up his game in general if he wants to compete for a starting place.

If these guys improve, then we will have centre backs who are good enough to play in Premier League winning sides. Having spent a year together already, the understanding should already be there, too, which is a nice bonus.

Full Backs

Last Season: Bacary Sagna, Carl Jenkinson, Kieran Gibbs, Andre Santos
This Season: Bacary Sagna, Carl Jenkinson, Kieran Gibbs, Andre Santos

No changes, but there are a couple of issues. Sagna's injury means that Jenkinson will be starting for the first few games. Jenkinson showed last season that he has talent, but is a bit on the raw side. He's capable of filling in, but is just as liable of making the errors you'd expect from young, inexperienced full-backs.

Kieran Gibbs is improving and I'm confident he will continue to do so, while Santos remains a wild card. Both suffer from problems in their positioning, but both are good going forward, which is essential for the system we play.

My biggest concern here is the general lack of reliability. Only Sagna can be considered a good defender amongst them and while the others have their qualities, not being able to carry out their primary function properly doesn't fill me with confidence.

Central Midfielders

Last Season: Alex Song, Francis Coquelin, Mikel Arteta, Jack Wilshere (long-term absentee), Abou Diaby (long-term absentee), Aaron Ramsey, Tomas Rosicky
This Season: Alex Song, Francis Coquelin, Mikel Arteta, Jack Wilshere (still injured), Abou Diaby, Aaron Ramsey, Tomas Rosicky (injured), Santiago Cazorla

The most highly debated area of the squad. Last season's midfield only had two reliable players (Song and Arteta) and was blighted by injury and inconsistency. It did pretty well in the end, but in comparison to other Arsenal midfields, it was certainly lacking.

However, with any luck, we won't have the same issues this season. The big addition is obviously Cazorla, who's ability to play between the lines and play killer passes will prove invaluable during the season. His arrival means injury-prone Rosicky will drop to the bench and Ramsey won't be under the same pressure to perform. Another bonus here is the return to fitness of Diaby, who can offer something different.

Some might argue that there's still a need for another player here with concerns over the fitness of certain players.

Wide Forwards

Last Season: Theo Walcott, Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain, Gervinho, Yossi Benayoun, Andrey Arshavin
This Season: Theo Walcott, Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain, Lukas Podolski, Gervinho, Andrey Arshavin

With the midfield providing a lot of creativity, we need wide forwards capable of taking advantage of that. Well, here we have two genuine goal threats in Walcott and Podolski, while Chamberlain, someone who is sure to become even better, and Gervinho, someone who needs to find consistency, can provide some flair and guile from the flanks. Between those four, and the enigmatic Arshavin, this a strong, albeit somewhat inconsistent, part of the squad.

Centre Forwards

Last Season: Robin van Persie, Marouane Chamakh, Park Ju-Young
This Season: Olivier Giroud, Marouane Chamakh

So van Persie has gone to Man Utd. That sucks.

On the bright side, we've already signed a replacement in the form of the handsome (no homo) Giroud, a player who's not only lethal in front of goal, but also offers excellent hold-up play that can bring other players into an attack. He's a very good fit for our system.

Lukas Podolski, of course, will probably be second choice which is a good alternative given that he, too, is very good at bringing others into play and knows the way to the back of the net. Chamakh is actually improving a little every time he plays, but is still far off from being good enough to play. It's possible that we may require another attacker, but it's not urgent... yet.

Tactics

Above is what I believe to be the most likely starting eleven next season. With two new strikers in the squad, people began to speculate that we'll move to a two striker formation. However, as I've stated before, a switch away from three midfielders creates a lot of issues. Right now, considering how the squad is built, I fully expect us to continue using our 4-3-3/4-2-3-1.

Offensively, we have a side that should be able to play a fluid, offensive passing game. Cazorla's addition to the side should make the attack a lot more cohesive and a lot more dangerous as he can take full advantage of the out-to-in runs of Walcott and Podolski as well as the intellignet movement of Giroud. What's more, Giroud will be able to bring these three into play due to his outstanding hold-up play.

Failing that, we can exploit Giroud's aerial prowess by having Chamberlain whip in crosses, or we can throw on Gervinho for someone who can run at and commit defenders. Moreover, we can use Ramsey and/or Diaby if we need a goal threat from midfield. Evidently, there are plenty of options for us in attack.

It's the defence that's problematic. The duo of Song and Arteta is vital because not only does it need to regulate possession effectively, but it also needs to effectively screen the back four which it hasn't always done. With both full-backs guaranteed to go forward, they will have to be disciplined.

Discipline is something this team lacks defensively. Opposition runs are rarely tracked, the full backs tend to show little defensive awareness and the team often attacks with a reckless abandon that usually sees it get exposed on the counter attack. Furthermore, this team will have to press the opposition more often otherwise teams will continue to exploit our high-line.

If these issues aren't resolved, the team will fail regardless of how good it is going forward.

Off to a Slow Start?

New signings are fantastic. They can add a lot of quality to a team and create a sense of excitement around the club. Certainly, there's been a buzz thanks to the high-profile additions of Cazorla, Podolski and Giroud.

However, new signings can take a while to settle in and we may not see the best of them until later on in the season. With the first couple of months looking tough with games away to Stoke, Liverpool and Manchester City and a home game against Chelsea, it would not surprise me if the team started slowly. So while the team will be expected to the hit the ground running, it would perhaps be wise to just lower the expectations somewhat while these guys settle in and reach an understanding with the rest of the team.

The Strength of the Competition

Other than ourselves, the only other club to significantly strengthen is Chelsea. Manchester City haven't brought in any new players, while Manchester United have added a class player in Kagawa to their team. Those three, in my opinion, are the strongest squads in the league and are stronger than ours. How much stronger is another matter. At this moment in time, I don't think there's much difference.

Then there's Tottenham, Newcastle and Liverpool. They're strong teams who can cause any of the top clubs trouble and can easily capitalise on any of our failures.

Suffice it to say, the top seven (or six, depending on who you ask) is very competitive and we will have to be at the top of our game to better the majority of them. I consider City and United to be the only two genuine title contenders, so that leaves us Chelsea, Spurs, Newcastle and possibly Liverpool as our main competition. By all means, that's tough competition.

Conclusion

Some people are suggesting that with our new additions, we can challenge for the title. Having assessed our current squad and tactics, I can't say I agree.

The talent is undoubtedly there, but there are one too many uncertainties at this moment in time for me to believe we can challenge for the title. For one thing, we aren't winning anything if our defence doesn't improve significantly. It wouldn't matter how many goals we stick in at the other end, titles are won because of good defences. City and United have those defences.

Another uncertainty is about who can step-up and produce consistently and in key moments throughout the season. Last year, it was van Persie and no one else. This year, we'll need the likes of Szczesny, Koscielny, Song, Cazorla, Walcott, and van Persie to have great seasons. It's difficult to say if they can do that or not.

The new players add a lot of quality but this will be their first season and as we've seen before, they may not be as consistent while they're settling in. There's also the fact that there are plenty of players who need to improve and, again, it's hard to say for certain if they will or not.

Injuries are also something to think about. The depth is there, but Arsenal are always prone to having a major injury crisis that renders depth irrelevant.

In short, there are too many “ifs” for me to confidently say we'll challenge for the title, but third or fourth is my expectation. Anything less would be a failure.

Bare in mind that this is just an early assessment based on what the squad looks like on paper. As the season progresses, this team might prove me wrong and look like genuine contenders. Or, they might fall way short of expectation and struggle. In other words, whatever expectations I have for Arsenal now are subject to change.

Diggin' the colors Jay

Always nice to hear your thoughts, I think we should get a much clearer idea of how legitimately we'll challenge for the title in September once the squad is finalized and we've played a couple of games. The RVP saga still needs to be resolved, it remains to be seen whether AW will sign more (Sahin, surprise move for M'vila) and we'll have seen how well Cazorla, Podolski and Giroud adapt to the prem.

I'm optimistic about the new signings ability to adapt, Cazorla being very consistent for Malaga and Spain and showing that he not only fits into our system but improves it. Podolski being a seasoned veteran and clinical goalscorer and Giroud having the huge build to make it in the physical English football game.

That all being said, I don't think we should earmark the Prem title as the only honor worthy of our full efforts, I think our agenda should be to take every trophy seriously and do whatever it takes to win one and give the fans and Wenger something to celebrate about. Ideally the CL or EPL would be the huge trophies we'd want to win but a 3rd place finish with an FA Cup or CCup(We can still call it that ) would give the team a taste of glory and put us in a good position to challenge more seriously the next year. Very good summer so far.

It's about damn time.

I want us to be more consistent and concede less goals, We need to close the gap between the top 2. We can't finish 18 point behind that's embarrassing, i expect a top 3 finish and a cup. I also expect us to reach at least the quarter final of the champions league. not asking much am i

Brilliant read Jay!

All in all, our signings and optimism will mean jack if we arent consistent and we dont get it up the backside because of injuries.

If the Koln game is anything to go by, our defense seems more in control.

Great stuff Jay. Very enjoyable to read.

Count me as a member of Camp Optimism. Obviously the signings of Podolski, Giroud and Cazorla were a stroke of genius. Maybe there will be more to come. But I also think we'll see a lot of improvement from the defense. I've been reading a lot of good things about the work Steve Bould has been doing. Improvement will be a season-long process (insert cliche here: Rome wasn't built in a day, etc.). But from all indications that process has begun.

Bould seems to be working hard on instilling the concept of shape and organization, as well as trying to lead the players a bit closer to the sort of mental toughness that existed in the Arsenal defense during Bould's era. This has been a problem for several years now. Too often Arsenal defenders have been caught out of position when a ball is lost at midfield or something. This is an area that I think can and will be improved as the season goes along. When you look at the talent across the back line -- Sagna, Koscielny, Vermaelen, Gibbs/Santos -- you see a group of talented and largely experienced internationals. Sagna and Vermaelen have been named to the PFA team of the year. Koscielny might have been on that team last year had the overall defense not struggled so mightily. The ability is there. It's just a matter of meshing these guys into a cohesive unit. Never an easy task, but certainly doable.

But what really turned last season into such an unmitigated defensive disaster was injury. That, of course, is something that can't be controlled, but you have to believe the law of averages should be in Arsenal's favor this year. Koscielny was the only defender who played in 30 or more Premier League games last year. Vermaelen, when he wasn't injured, was forced to play fullback half the time, robbing the defense of it's best central pairing. Sagna, who broke his leg twice, played more games at fullback than anyone else (21). And did I mention that he broke his leg? Twice? Gibbs played in 16 games and Santos 15. Carl Jenkinson, who a year earlier was playing on loan at Eastbourne Borough in Conference South (the sixth tier of English football) before getting in eight games for Charlton in League One, started five games for Arsenal! Think about that.

The one thing that does concern me is Sagna's health. We know he won't be ready for the start, but what if he starts having setbacks like Wilshere did last year? What if, God forbid, he breaks his leg again? Jenkinson has promise, but he gets caught out of position and doesn't always handle being pressured very well -- understandable considering that his entire professional career prior to coming to Arsenal last year consisted of 13 games in the lower divisions. Coquelin can play there, and is a player I love, but he also is too inexperienced. I would like to see Arsenal add an experienced right back before the transfer window closes, but with the season opening this weekend it doesn't appear that's going to happen.

Hopefully Sagna will recover soon and have a healthy season. If he and the other key players can stay on the pitch and respond to what Steve Bould is trying to do, I think we'll see quite a bit of improvement. Arsenal may not lead the league in clean sheets, but hopefully they'll avoid letting in goals in bunches.

Great read Jay

You have every right to be positive right fantastic signings like Podolski, Cazorla and Giroud.

Cazorla especially who fills the gap that Cesc left and IMO is a better player

Giroud will be very important also as Arsenal actually have a target for their crosses now.

How ever there are still weaknesses....

fullback for me quite frankly is an area of weakness, Sagna is fantastic but he has had quite a lot of injuries and him a side i don't rate the rest of the fullbacks defensively.

I understand as fan's you believe in them but as an neutral i have no emotional attachment towards them and i feel it's a position that should have been looked at.

The other weakness is defensive cover and defensive positioning which is the main reason you concede so many IMO.

Take us for example defensively off the ball we give a lot of cover to our defence and everyone covers each others backs i don't see this at Arsenal and one of the main reasons i see Arsenal falling short.

BTW before anyone says anything you could teach us a thing or two about movement, possession recycling and creating chances

I also consider this a system issue and not a personnel issue.

I personally would expect to be finishing 3rd but trying to close the gap to the top 2 and doing well in both cups and the CL maybe with a bit of luck even winning a trophy.

Good luck ( not too much obviously !)

Although there was one disappointment in your post Jay

We should look like this Newcastle

Excellent job jay.

I have high expectation this year, tired of waiting for next year. We finally have a team that can compete with the best. Last year we lost 3 main players and we still managed to finish in the top 4.
For the first time in years we have signed 3 quality players and we are not done yet. We must keep Song and Walcott and if RVP stays that's a big bonus.

I truly believe with a healthy squad we can win the EPL.

For us to win the EPL these guys need to be healthy, Sagna, Vermaelen and Kos.

The main thing we will have competition for the first time in years, no longer a player will walk in to starting line up and play like shit game after game.

Many thanks for the positive response, guys.

MJGunner wrote:That all being said, I don't think we should earmark the Prem title as the only honor worthy of our full efforts, I think our agenda should be to take every trophy seriously and do whatever it takes to win one and give the fans and Wenger something to celebrate about. Ideally the CL or EPL would be the huge trophies we'd want to win but a 3rd place finish with an FA Cup or CCup(We can still call it that ) would give the team a taste of glory and put us in a good position to challenge more seriously the next year. Very good summer so far.

I agree, the two domestic cups are certainly winnable. I would have talked more about the other trophies we'll be competing for, but it's hard to judge just how well we'll do in them because I can't predict what sort of team we'll play in them and what teams we'll play against.

gunnerlistick wrote:I want us to be more consistent and concede less goals, We need to close the gap between the top 2. We can't finish 18 point behind that's embarrassing, i expect a top 3 finish and a cup. I also expect us to reach at least the quarter final of the champions league. not asking much am i

Those are reasonable expectations. The team we have at the moment is capable of closing that gap. Even if we don't win the title, I'd be happy if we finished at least nine points within the top two.

Mudcat wrote:Count me as a member of Camp Optimism. Obviously the signings of Podolski, Giroud and Cazorla were a stroke of genius. Maybe there will be more to come. But I also think we'll see a lot of improvement from the defense. I've been reading a lot of good things about the work Steve Bould has been doing. Improvement will be a season-long process (insert cliche here: Rome wasn't built in a day, etc.). But from all indications that process has begun.

There were definite signs of improvement in the most recent friendly, which was encouraging. The difference in defending in that game and the defending in the Kitchee game was like night and day. It wasn't perfect, but we pressed Cologne, we looked more solid at the back (helped, I think, by Yennaris not going forward as much) and was almost impeccable defending set-pieces (shockingly enough). There's still a lot of work to do, but I'm feeling better about our prospects defensively than I was a week or so ago.

Great Leader Sprucenuce wrote:fullback for me quite frankly is an area of weakness, Sagna is fantastic but he has had quite a lot of injuries and him a side i don't rate the rest of the fullbacks defensively.

Neither do, quite frankly. Santos can tackle, Gibbs has good recovery pace and Jenkinson has potential, but there is a general lack of reliability here.

Great Leader Sprucenuce wrote:Although there was one disappointment in your post Jay

We should look like this Newcastle

My apologies. I shall correct that right away.

Raptorgunner wrote:The main thing we will have competition for the first time in years, no longer a player will walk in to starting line up and play like shit game after game.

Let's hope that turns out to be the case and let's hope the players respond well to having genuine competition.

One of the best reads in a long time on this forum. Awesome job Jay.
Actually, all of you who contributed to this thread.

Some great things were mentioned.
I wanted to bring up my ideas too but most if it was already mentioned.

Also, love the fact that Tottenham's written in white, so it's barely visible.

The only thing now, is to wait for the season to unfold and enjoy (hopefully) every moment.

With our new signings, I predict that we shall crush our enemies, see them driven before us, and hear the lamentation of their women

Honestly, this is one of our most complete squads in a while. Unlike in previous years, there is not a major area of the team that is majorly lacking. There's no guarantee that we'll win for fun, but it's not like we have to worry anymore about player X, Y or Z not being good enough, playing anyway, and screwing the whole team over.

GK: no worries at all.

RB: solid. People keep mentioning only Sagna and Jenkinson, but we also have Yennaris here who hasn't really ever played badly for us yet. I am quite comfortable with our options.

CBs: best we have had for a long time, with no injuries atm. If the Bendtner-Mexes swap does takes place as rumoured, we will have 4 CBs I am comfortable playing at any time (Djourou at 5th choice).

LB: Okay, maybe Gibbs and Santos aren't always defensively reliable, but there really aren't any LBs that are available right now that we could buy to make this position stronger, and Gibbs has been looking good in recent times, so we have to put up with what we have, which realistically could be worse. Also, if injuries happen, Vermaelen can play here and Merts can play CB. In the past, if Clichy was injured for example (though it didn't happen often), we'd have been fecked.

CM: not just solid, but stacked, especially if we get Sahin. No team in the EPL has a midfield as good as ours IMO, not even the Mad Money City.

RW: dat pace!

ST: if RvP stays, we are quite comfortable here.

LW: Godolski and Forehead

Offensively, on paper, we should be eating teams for breakfast.

excellent piece man! for what its worth i am very optimistic aboout our chances this season. COYG!!!!

The last time Manchester United faced Everton on the opening day, Arsenal won the title.

Raptorgunner wrote:The last time Manchester United faced Everton on the opening day, Arsenal won the title.

Wilson37 wrote:

Raptorgunner wrote:The last time Manchester United faced Everton on the opening day, Arsenal won the title.

Was it also the last time we sold our best player and captain to them?

srigooner wrote:

Wilson37 wrote:

Raptorgunner wrote:The last time Manchester United faced Everton on the opening day, Arsenal won the title.

Was it also the last time we sold our best player and captain to them?

But Vermaelen and Arteta aren't being sold...




See what I did there?

Yeah.. Rosicky >> Arteta

srigooner wrote:

Wilson37 wrote:

Raptorgunner wrote:The last time Manchester United faced Everton on the opening day, Arsenal won the title.

Was it also the last time we sold our best player and captain to them?

With out Song and Walcott he is only half the player.

srigooner wrote:Yeah.. Rosicky >> Arteta

Not sure if sririous



Yeah no. Arteta is easily our best player after he who shall be shamed. Cazorla, Podolski and Giroud still have to prove that they're better.

MJGunner wrote:

srigooner wrote:Yeah.. Rosicky >> Arteta

Not sure if sririous



Yeah no. Arteta is easily our best player after he who shall be shamed. Cazorla, Podolski and Giroud still have to prove that they're better.

I think this man may have a saying about the best Arsenal player.

I didn't realise how photogenic Koscielny is in that picture

MJ, make a meme out of him and post it on ur page

something like " Ridiculously photogenic Koscielny "

"Marks a striker. Striker subs himself out of the game. "

Along the lines

RealGunner wrote:I didn't realise how photogenic Koscielny was

MJ, make a meme out of him and post it on ur page

something like " Ridiculously photogenic Koscielny "http://www.arsenalhf.com/news/wp-content/uploads/2011/12/tumblr_lhuqi6xFiC1qgrxdwo1_500.jpg

"Marks a striker. Striker subs himself out of the game. "

Along the lines

We should make a thread for all the big name players he shut down.

Mj can do the rest.

RealGunner wrote:I didn't realise how photogenic Koscielny is in that picture

MJ, make a meme out of him and post it on ur page

something like " Ridiculously photogenic Koscielny "

"Marks a striker. Striker subs himself out of the game. "

Along the lines

No pressure or anything, just create a meme the fans are unfamiliar with and make it funny

I'll see what I can do. This is on your head if it fails.

In light of recent events, I've made some amendments to the "Forwards" and "Tactics" sections of the original post. Nothing much.

look at this in positive way
many teams already knew they will concede possession against us
they tried to push us out wide and force us to cross hopelessly
now we can scare them with Giroud