Glen Johnson's winner turn a man's €1 into £585k

by Guest Mon Nov 21, 2011 11:33 pm

Football fan wins £585k from 86p stake
Published 23:00 21/11/11 By Martin Fricker Recommend

A football fan scored a record-breaking bets payout after correctly predicting 19 results at the weekend.

He staked €1 - just 86p - on an online accumulator of 19 English and Scottish games at odds of 683,738/1.

After getting them all right, he scooped £585,143.24.

By Sunday afternoon, the unnamed punter had already correctly forecast 18 games, including wins for Arsenal, Celtic, MK Dons and Crawley, leaving him sweating over the Chelsea v Liverpool game.

Glen Johnson’s goal in the 87th minute clinched a 2-1 victory for Liverpool, and a huge win for the 41-year-old man, who lives in a small village in Malta and is not thought to be a UK ex-pat.

The gambler, who never stakes more than a single euro, was £152,000 up from the first 18 games but his prize pot was resting on the last result.

If Chelsea had held on for a draw, or won, he would have collected nothing.

William Hill’s Graham Sharpe said: “We cannot recall any punter winning this much on an accumulator with such stratospheric odds. He wasn’t a Liverpool fan before, but he tells us he is now.”

Bookies lost all weekend as all the fancied teams won.

http://www.mirrorfootball.co.uk/news/Gambler-wins-585k-for-86p-stake-on-19-match-accumulator-thanks-to-Glen-Johnson-87th-minute-Liverpool-winner-v-Chelsea-article833317.html?utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter

by Guest Mon Nov 21, 2011 11:34 pm

Mystery Maltese Man’s William Hill bet
Return €683,739.88

|Norwich| |vs| |Arsenal|- 7/10- away
|Everton| |vs| |Wolves|- 6/10- home
|Man City| |vs| |Newcastle|-1/3- home
|Swansea| |vs| |Man Utd|-4/9- away
|Chelsea| |vs| |Liverpool|-7/2- away
|West Brom| |vs| |Bolton|- 11/10- home
|Inverness| |vs| |Celtic|-4/9- away
|Southampton| |vs| |Brighton|-8/15- home
|Coventry| |vs| |West Ham|-4/5- away
|Reading| |vs| |Cardiff|-11/5- away
|Brentford| |vs| |Charlton|-7/5- away
|Huddersfield| |vs| |Notts County|-4/5- home
|Sheff Utd| |vs| |Carlisle|-19/20- home
|Colchester| |vs| |MK Dons|-6/4 Away
|Tranmere| |vs| |Sheff Wed|-9/5- Away
|Crawley| |vs| |Oxford|-5/6 home
|Dagenham| |vs| |Southend|- 5/6 away
|Cheltenham| |vs| |Port Vale|-13/10 home
|Northampton| |vs| |Shrewsbury|- 11/8 away

by Patrick Bateman Mon Nov 21, 2011 11:36 pm

by DagenhamDave Mon Nov 21, 2011 11:37 pm

thats the william hill accumulator, i do this every saturday, 50p on ten teams and 2 25p bets on 12 or more teams. newcastle let me down this weekend i had it as a draw.

by FennecFox7 Tue Nov 22, 2011 1:10 am

[quote="Sepi"]

William Hill’s Graham Sharpe said: “We cannot recall any punter winning this much on an accumulator with such stratospheric odds. He wasn’t a Liverpool fan before, but he tells us he is now.”

:lol!:

by Lex Tue Nov 22, 2011 1:11 am

by Guiltybystander Tue Nov 22, 2011 1:15 am

So wait, do you need to have all outcomes correct too?
Because otherwise you could just bet on ALL possible outcomes (there are something like 650 possibilities I think) for the winners and always win...
But it can't be that easy obviously...

by Great Leader Sprucenuce Tue Nov 22, 2011 1:31 am

Guiltybystander wrote:So wait, do you need to have all outcomes correct too?
Because otherwise you could just bet on ALL possible outcomes (there are something like 650 possibilities I think) for the winners and always win...
But it can't be that easy obviously...

Just guess the right result where it will be win,loss or draw......

I used do it all the time, once i put on a fiver on odds that would have net my 50 k it was the 94th minute had all results going my way and Darren Bent scored.......

I didnt win a penny..... Mad

I have'nt done it since Laughing

by Patrick Bateman Tue Nov 22, 2011 1:39 am

Immaculate_Mole wrote:
Guiltybystander wrote:So wait, do you need to have all outcomes correct too?
Because otherwise you could just bet on ALL possible outcomes (there are something like 650 possibilities I think) for the winners and always win...
But it can't be that easy obviously...

Just guess the right result where it will be win,loss or draw......

I used do it all the time, once i put on a fiver on odds that would have net my 50 k it was the 94th minute had all results going my way and Darren Bent scored.......

I didnt win a penny..... I have'nt done it since

by Lex Tue Nov 22, 2011 1:40 am

Immaculate_Mole wrote:it was the 94th minute had all results going my way and Darren Bent scored.......

I'm guessing that was an Arsenal game

by kiranr Tue Nov 22, 2011 1:43 am

Mole, was that 5 pounds netting you 50k if you had won?

These odds are great. There are 38 game weeks each season. You stake 1 euro every game week. So in total you will be betting 38 euros in an year.

You are bound to get one bet in 38 correct. With such odds, you could easily make 50-100 times that amount every year. Or am i wrong somewhere?

by Raptorgunner Tue Nov 22, 2011 1:47 am

Lex wrote:
Immaculate_Mole wrote:it was the 94th minute had all results going my way and Darren Bent scored.......
I'm guessing that was an Arsenal game

LOL, who else. :facepalm:

by Great Leader Sprucenuce Tue Nov 22, 2011 1:48 am

kiranr wrote:Mole, was that 5 pounds netting you 50k if you had won?

These odds are great. There are 38 game weeks each season. You stake 1 euro every game week. So in total you will be betting 38 euros in an year.

You are bound to get one bet in 38 correct. With such odds, you could easily make 50-100 times that amount every year. Or am i wrong somewhere?

Yep, how it works you win everything or nothing at all lol

by Guest Tue Nov 22, 2011 1:51 am

^^^

You must absolutely hate Bent. What makes it worse was the fact that Sunderland scored that goal. wow man. =(

by Guiltybystander Tue Nov 22, 2011 1:52 am

My question is, say, you bet on all possible outcomes:

19 games will be played each weekend.

You put a euro on EVERY SINGLE POSSIBLE string of outcomes, which, if I am not being retarded, would add up to 3(win/lose/draw)x19x18 which is: 1026,
so if you put in 1026, you have the guarantee that you will win the whole thing? right?

Oh no wait... or is it 3^19th?

Actually, it is quite infinite. Why am I being such a basic statistics fail today?

by kiranr Tue Nov 22, 2011 1:55 am

Immaculate_Mole wrote:
kiranr wrote:Mole, was that 5 pounds netting you 50k if you had won?

These odds are great. There are 38 game weeks each season. You stake 1 euro every game week. So in total you will be betting 38 euros in an year.

You are bound to get one bet in 38 correct. With such odds, you could easily make 50-100 times that amount every year. Or am i wrong somewhere?

Yep, how it works you win everything or nothing at all lol

Well, then you got too emotional. Those are mind-blowing odds. You should kept at it with reduced bets. Maybe 1 pound each game week.

by kiranr Tue Nov 22, 2011 1:57 am

Guiltybystander wrote:My question is, say, you bet on all possible outcomes:

19 games will be played each weekend.

You put a euro on EVERY SINGLE POSSIBLE string of outcomes, which, if I am not being retarded, would add up to 3(win/lose/draw)x19x18 which is: 1026,
so if you put in 1026, you have the guarantee that you will win the whole thing? right?

Oh no wait... or is it 3^19th?

Actually, it is quite infinite. Why am I being such a basic statistics fail today?

Only 10 games played each weekend.

by Great Leader Sprucenuce Tue Nov 22, 2011 2:03 am

Sepi wrote:^^^

You must absolutely hate Bent. What makes it worse was the fact that Sunderland scored that goal. wow man. =(

Yep i f*ckin despise him lol, i even refuse to admit he's good when everyone hypes him up to be a good finisher i go nah man he's shit lol......

Just think we i could have done with that money Sad

or yh and the Sunderland factor didnt help one bit lol......

GBS they give you a slip of a certain amount of games and you either tick off Win, Loss or Draw and obviously the less likely results you go for the higher the odds......

Because you are basically betting over a crap tonne of games the trade off is you get one result wrong you get f*ck all lol.....

Oh and Kiranr they usually throw some lower division games in so theres usually close to 20 games.

by Guiltybystander Tue Nov 22, 2011 5:17 am

But then still, if you get around 1020 of those slips, and fill in all the different possibilities, you would win big regardless?

I don't get it?

Unless the returns are very low if you go for the likely outcomes. Although I can't imagine that your return for having all correct would be less than a thousand on a euro, even though you go for the obvious ones.

Actually, most effective strategy then would be (if you are going to bet on just one), is to bet AGAINST bookmakers odds every week (so ManU-Newcastle, let Newcastle win etc.), so it is extremely unlikely that you will win, but if you do, your returns are by far highest. I might calculate later what the benefit of this would be versus betting on the obvious candidates to win.

Actually, that might not be the most effective. The most effective would be is to study results in the past and lay those next to the betting odds (obvious versus non obvious winner), average out how many the boomakers had correct each week, and take that number as the number of obvious ones you are going to go for and how many unlikelies you will pick. You could further check back and see for which clubs the bookies predicted outcomes mostly correct and for which not.

by kiranr Tue Nov 22, 2011 5:35 am

Guiltybystander wrote:But then still, if you get around 1020 of those slips, and fill in all the different possibilities, you would win big regardless?

I don't get it?

If there are 19 games in the bet and you bet 1 euro on every possible outcome, then you have to put 3^19 euros totally.

by Guiltybystander Tue Nov 22, 2011 5:56 am

kiranr wrote:
Guiltybystander wrote:But then still, if you get around 1020 of those slips, and fill in all the different possibilities, you would win big regardless?

I don't get it?

If there are 19 games in the bet and you bet 1 euro on every possible outcome, then you have to put 3^19 euros totally.

Yeah you are right, that is what I said too some posts up (3^19), but then my brain was being weird and I was confused. If draw was no possibility however, you could feasibly bet on all. Although returns would be lower too.

by BiasedMilanFan3 Tue Nov 22, 2011 7:34 am

He's the reincarnation of Paul the octopus! :bow:

by Art Morte Tue Nov 22, 2011 8:31 am

Wow, g'damn!

And no draws in his bet :p

by Vibe Tue Nov 22, 2011 1:10 pm

Worst betting ticket I've ever seen TBH...

by TheRedStag Tue Nov 22, 2011 1:23 pm

19 team accumulater.....poxy *bleep*.

I don't think I've ever had an accumulater with more than 7 or 8 teams come off.

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