2018 / 2019 season prediction

Mr Nick09 wrote:Ceballos is going to enjoy himself this season, Zidane really hated him, whereas Lopetegui loves him, and is happy to have him in the team.

Also, with Nacho coming back, all the defensive flunkiness went away. Experienced CB makes a world of difference.

And Sports as well! Vamos a ver!

I get that people like Ceballos but so far he hasn't really shown anything that he hadn't already, what if the context changed and he had play in a different sort of team? By the looks of it he would have to take advanced positions but that's not what i think he was brought in for as a player, which is in part why Zidane did not play him. He's done alright but should have shown more with his passing by now imo. Good luck to him though.

I never had a sense that Ceballos was a great passer. To me, he is showing the qualities that we signed him for. Quick thinking, great between the lines, great dribbler and an uncanny ability to pause and turn.

This so far is translating into positive performances in preseason.

you need to be a passer if you're going to me a midfielder... unless you're a specialist like Casemiro (and it's a problem tbh).

Passing isn't optional at his position.

That's been the problem for Isco too btw when he plays the midfield. But Isco is infinitely talented at everything else.

I happen to think Isco is a great passer, and Ceballos is also a quality passer, but he is not the type of player that break lines with his passing.

I think you misunderstood me, the potential is there because he has such a nice vision and with his dribbling he can get the ball where he wants.

Both Ceballos and Isco are pocket passers + tunnel vision passers... which is nice if you're in the final 1/3 because there's no room or time for more. But you need range, vision and the ability to break lines with passing as a CM.

It's a must. Hence the reason Isco can't be a CM consistently. Ceballos, on the other hand, must either develop the skill or move to the forward lines imo.

Lopotegui's style does compensate for this weakness, however.  But it is a flaw that makes team defending easier and something elite teams will make you pay for.

That's right, but at least Isco has the quality to distribute horizontally across the pitch and could also do so vertically if he tried imo. This is why the other day i said you might as well play Isco over Ceballos in midfield because i just don't think he offers enough.

Depends what you role is though, as you say they are final third guys, not the players who drop in front of the defense to pick up the ball and switch play.

When you play 433, with a DM and two interiors, you dont need both your interiors to have the same style. Iniesta wasn't really a CM himself, yet he thrived in a 3 man midfield.

It comes down to what your role is. For guys who are going to be the attacking interiors in the 433, play CAM or LAM in a 4231, they are just fine.

The ones who need to work on that type of passing range are Kovacic, Valverde, Llorente. That's why i said the other day that if Kovacic leaves, then you need to replace him, because outside of Modric or Kroos, we would not have a deep playmaker off the bench

Kovacic isn't even a playmaker, Valverde has had poor accuracy with his long balls the last two matches but he has shades of Alonso with his willingness to pull the trigger, he is still very green but he could be promoted and prob distribute better than Kovacic ever has. And Llorente has looked good so far.

Only works in possession short passing schemes... and even then.  Kroos showed what a huge weapon it is to have a CM with range and vision in that scheme.  The opponents can't bunch themselves to defend you with proper passing CMs.

I don't like Isco as a CM and I feel more more strongly towards Ceballos UNLESS he develops proper passing skills.  But his commitment off the pitch needs to have improved drastically to make that kind of progress.  Maybe he'll find that motivation this season.

Personally, I like Marcos Llorente the most out of all our young mids.  He has the skillset already.  His problem with ZZ is that he wanted a physical specimen in front of the back 4... whether with size or speed (hence Casemiro or Kova).  I think he'll get his chances more with Lopotegui.

Valverde does have more talent as a passer than Llorente, that's clear. But conversely, Llorente is a great athlete and talented ball winner.

Kovacic has failed to grow as a playmaker that's for sure, but the raw material is there, and if he stays i think Lopetegui can help him grow. But even if he is not a playmaker, he has so many other qualities that make him relevant playing from deep.

@Sports, we all understand that Isco and Ceballos are not CM in the sense that they can't play in a double pivot. What i am saying is that you would need to deploy them in a 3 man midfield. and they can both be competent switching play, come on. On Asensio seond goal yesterday, Ceballos picks up the ball in the middle of the pitch and switches the ball effortlessly to the right.

i am interested in seeing how the club will deal with Kovacic asking to leave. At this point i think Madrid will offer a new deal to Modric, although if we dont, it's not gonna surprise me as well.

If we play a 4-2-3-1 as expected, and as we have seen in preseason so far, Isco and Ceballos are perfect for that CAM position. As you all have noted Isco and Ceballos aren't going to light the football world up with long range Kroos/Xabi - esque passes, but they are great with close control, and quick, short passes that work well in the final third.

Yes, that will leave us with less defensive cover in the midfield (playing a double pivot instead of a more flat 3 like we played under ZZ), but if we can press positionally like we have seen Spain do under Lopetegui, then we will be less reliant on defensive midfield control (like ZZ), and more reliant on winning the ball back higher up the pitch and quick transition.

We have the tools to make that happen, I just think it will take time to implement.

Also, it's not like when we had Ozil. Isco/Ceballos have enough workrate to drop deeper as needed.

To me it is not clear we will play 4231 exclusively at all, Lopetegui has been experimenting with quite a few shapes but what is clear is that we want to press higher up the pitch with some intense moments and good handling of the ball with probably a dynamic balance between vertical and patient football. And the midfielders will be very involved in all facets, including Ceballos. We have seen 433, 442, 4231, 4141, 433 false nine, hybrids, and players interchanging place in midfield much more than Zidane's comparatively static midfield of 3.

No one is saying Ceballos should have Xabi-esque passes, rather that in the elite you have to have a more complete arsenal like Modric, Gundogan, or Thiago, and i think Ceballos can still work on it no doubt but at times his lack of passing arsenal reminds me of Illarramendi.

vanDEEZ wrote:If we play a 4-2-3-1 as expected, and as we have seen in preseason so far, Isco and Ceballos are perfect for that CAM position. As you all have noted Isco and Ceballos aren't going to light the football world up with long range Kroos/Xabi - esque passes, but they are great with close control, and quick, short passes that work well in the final third.

Yes, that will leave us with less defensive cover in the midfield (playing a double pivot instead of a more flat 3 like we played under ZZ), but if we can press positionally like we have seen Spain do under Lopetegui, then we will be less reliant on defensive midfield control (like ZZ), and more reliant on winning the ball back higher up the pitch and quick transition.

We have the tools to make that happen, I just think it will take time to implement.

Also, it's not like when we had Ozil. Isco/Ceballos have enough workrate to drop deeper as needed.

Agree completely. The starting lineup will be

Courtois
Carvajal Varane Ramos Marcelo
Casemiro Kroos
Bale Modric Isco
Benzema

And the backups

Navas
Odriozola Vallejo Nacho Reguilon (or Telles)
Llorente Valverde (possibly)
Lucas Ceballos Asensio
????

They're not CMs in the sense that they can't play if the system doesn't use a AM... Most 433 systems don't use a AM.  In fact, the 442 has gone away from it too where you're looking for B2Bs as opposed to AMs because of the defensive duties.

It's really all about a 4231 or Barca-style 433 unless they play on the forward line (which I don't think Ceballos will beat out Isco, Asensio, etc)

It's about the mental commitment to adding that facet to your arsenal. Isco didn't want to.  Maybe Ceballos will as he's young enough... it would be wise from him.

In spanish football, you dont play a 433 without players like Ceballos or Isco. They are called interiors, as in players in the middle of the pitch. It's clearly different from Deschamps using 3 DMs in midfield

Given that we have a spanish coach, who played that style from youth teams to now, it's relevant. This is wy they fit in his scheme perfectly, whether it's playing as interior or higher up the pitch.

As I said earlier, this is a transitional year, primarily due to a coach with different tactics and known for his coaching / teaching his formations / tactics.

Sports of course is highly skeptical of everything contra french be it coach, tactics, players¡  

Vamos a ver. Pero necesita un delantero!

I know Sports is biased but he has no "anti-Spanish" agenda exactly. He is correct imo.

If it were up to me I'd splash the cash on Thiago if he is willing to come. Zidane has proved before that he is an excellent scout when it comes to picking talent and again I agree with his scouting regarding Ceballos. Ceballos hasn't convinced me but he is not bad either. But I understand why he kept him on the bench the whole year, especially if he isn't doing himself any favors in training!

FYI the French players are world cup winners and most likely the most talented players right now.

I don't agree at all with that assessment Nick.  Iniesta was a supreme passer and Atleti play like Atleti.   The rest are almost irrelevant (although I remember a lot of 4231 play).

So we either are going to sacrifice one of Casemiro, Kroos or Modric to make room for a AM...  or Ceballos is going to have a hard time.  Isco will play up front; so no problem there.

I actually would prefer a 4231 with a AM.  But who do you drop?  Kroos and Modric are impossible... but so is playing a double pivot with those two.  So it's going to be a 433 or 442 most likely.  My bet is a 433 with Modric and Kroos getting a lot more freedom to support the attack.

Casemiro is in danger a bit though. If Llorente steps up, he's the one I like a lot.

Ceballos is not a starter in this madrid, i thin that's pretty clear, but we are talking about where he fits and how he fits when he gets minutes.

Let me ask you this... would you rather give minutes to Ceballos or Llorente? I think that what it will come down to. Asensio going to eat a lot of the minutes with Isco for the creative forward spot.

And this last preseason game was a ton of fun to watch btw... whatever happens, we will play with style. If that's how we will look, I'm rooting for Lopotegui big time. I just hope he has some pragmatism in him.

I am not rooting for anyone in particular, i care about us having talents to cover all zones. Who ever gets their chance should pounce.

Besides, Kovacic is ahead of Llorente in the pecking order. and if Kovacic leaves, it's likely we sign someone.

Lopetequi will NOT play with a fixed 11. There will be lots of opportunities for the likes of Odriozola, Nacho, Llorente, Ceballos, Asensio, etc. Pretty clear his starters at this point are Navas (although subject to change), Carvajal, Varane, Ramos, Marcelo, Casemiro, Kroos, Modric, Isco, Bale, Benz (ugh).

Besides Lopetequi being of different tactics and a teaching coach, you will find him using his entire squad.
He may not have the man management skills of Zidane, but he does possess a lot of positive skills that are different from Zidane. If you are expecting a Zidane type tactics, you are sadly mistaken.

And again he is not playing with a fixed 4-4-3 or 4-4-2