UEFA Coefficient development for the next seasons

by Helmer Thu Mar 19, 2015 10:24 am

Champions League places, top 4 to top 3 for England?

Will Germany go above England in next two seasons?

I came across this tweet that Germany is very close to England in overtaking them for 2nd spot in UEFA rankings :coffee:

and I found out on official website, that they really are.

http://www.uefa.com/memberassociations/uefarankings/country/

I will post top 5

UEFA Coefficient development for the next seasons Untitl11

UEFA Coefficient development for the next seasons Untitl11

I will update the clubs remaining in the competition after Europa League games are done, as of now for CL

Spain: 3 teams
England: 0 teams
Germany: 1 team
France: 2 teams
Portugal: 1 team
Italy: 1 team

So looking at that table, Spain seems really healthy so they will remain first for next 3-4 seasons. England, the trend actually shows their points are decreasing (on avg.) in last 5 seasons. Germany is more or less constant but for this season it is already more than England. So do you think this trend will continue and Germany go on to snatch that seond spot in that table? hmm

What about Italy? Italy has the maximum representatives in Europe as of now and will probably have same as Spain, which will be clear after todays fixtures are over. And in any case they will have more teams in Europe than Germany and England (looking at the results of the first round). So Italy also has a chance, they will come close to both Germany and England. Italys points are on rise (on avg.) from last 5 seaons.

by dostoevsky Thu Mar 19, 2015 10:37 am

Well even should England lose second spot on a permanent basis, they would still be able to send four representatives to the Champions League. I believe BC brought up in another thread - I forget which - that next year, a particularly poor year for Serie A will be erased from consideration which will give the league's coefficient a boost, however more consistent performances would be required for a couple of years yet before Serie A could overtake England.

The uneven financial investment between England and Italy can be overcome through good management and player development however the instability at the top of the league may mean that Italy's representatives may fail to build Champions League experience by missing out on consecutive qualifications. On a more positive note, Italian teams seem to be taking a more professional approach in the Europa League. This is also an area in which there is considerable room for improvement by English teams however and given the increased incentive of Champions League qualification now tied to the competition, it's possible that we will see more concerted efforts by English sides in this competition as well.

by BarrileteCosmico Thu Mar 19, 2015 11:24 am

BarrileteCosmico wrote:
DeviAngel wrote:
Spoiler:
Improving

You're comparing yourself to the wrong league. It's England that Italy could overtake, not Germany.

Consider what the UEFA coefficient looks like for only the past 4 years:

https://i.imgur.com/VmJzrvT.png

Also take into account that for the current season Italy will probably have 3 teams that make it to the next phase (Napoli, Juve and Fiorentina/Roma) whereas England only have Everton. It's especially important for Serie A that Juve go far because since 2009 the CL gets "bonus" points that the EL doesn't.

As of right now, the gap between the PL and Calcio is of 7.3 points. Let's assume that Everton don't win the EL whereas the Italian teams all go to the next round. That would put the gap closer to 6, much more manageable. If the Italian teams have a great campaign next year and the English teams have a terrible one next year, the PL could lose its spot.

It's unlikely to happen though, first because I believe that English teams flopping in Europe is temporary and second because the only good team in Italy is Juve (would any of Roma, Lazio and Napoli go far? I have my doubts). But if Italy were to take over the 3rd place, it would be stealing it from England and not Germany.

However, consider this: 2011/12 was Italy's worst year listed, with a mere 11 points. England has 15. So on 2016/17 a 4 point gap will be closed automatically. What this means is that if Italy outperforms England by 3 coefficient points over the next 2 years then it can get that spot back.

TL:DR If over the remainder of this season and the following 2 Serie A outperforms the PL by 3.5 coefficient points it will get the 4th spot back in 2017/18.

If over the remainder of this season and the following Serie A outperforms the PL by 7.5 coefficient points it will get the 4th spot back in 2016/17.

by Great Leader Sprucenuce Thu Mar 19, 2015 11:45 am

It will take years of shite for that to happen, it's more likely Bundesliga loses its spot tbh.

by Hapless_Hans Thu Mar 19, 2015 1:30 pm

Great Leader Sprucenuce wrote:It will take years of shite for that to happen, it's more likely Bundesliga loses its spot tbh.

After this season, Englands point lead is gone. If they don't outperform Germany next season they'll lose 2nd spot in 2017/2018.

Of course, that doesn't mean shit as both spots get the same number of teams to qualify.

For Italy to overtake either England or Germany it will take a few years of performing better than those two.

by Harmonica Thu Mar 19, 2015 1:35 pm

More Bundesfodder in CL? Mad

by Hapless_Hans Thu Mar 19, 2015 1:50 pm

Harmonica wrote:More Bundesfodder in CL?

top 3 spots have the same number of teams in case you haven't noticed.

by BarrileteCosmico Thu Mar 19, 2015 2:09 pm

Great Leader Sprucenuce wrote:It will take years of shite for that to happen, it's more likely Bundesliga loses its spot tbh.

Not really, Germany have a team guaranteed to make semis every year and they generally care about the EL. PL teams don't care about the EL and don't have a team that is great right now. I think England will go third soon but won't lose it to Italy.

by Helmer Thu Mar 19, 2015 2:12 pm

Oh I just realised that Excel screwed up with the dates Laughing

Anyways, imo Germany has a chance to overtake England in this season itself. You will need lot of possibilities that to happen but the difference is just above two points. So in case Everton fail to qualify for the next round. Bayern are already through and suppose Wolfsburg manage to go to the next round. That means two teams from Germany in the next round where England 0. If one of Bayern or Wolfsburg keep advancing, Germany can be 2nd after this season itself.

Considering the trend, Italy will need minimum two seasons more to overtake England/Germany. Suppose, italy outperforms England by 3 points in this season, which itself has low probability but still a possibility because Juve are in CL where as there is no English team in CL Laughing

. It looks unlikely that Italy will outperform England/Germany by more than 4 points suddenly in the next season. So that means Italy surely needs very good points in the next two seasons and also hope that one of England or Germany perform badly in the next two seasons. So put in short, Italy needs to wait for three seasons and it is highly likely that till then English clubs start performing better again in Europe. So Italy Laughing

by Hapless_Hans Thu Mar 19, 2015 2:21 pm

Germany have effectively already overtaken England, HMR.

As standings are today they'll be second place beginning of next season.

by zizzle Thu Mar 19, 2015 2:54 pm

There is a lot of uncertainty regarding Serie A teams and it will take some serious stabilty for Italian teams to keep the trend of this season. For example, will juvi start spending and become a serious CL contender or will they stay how they are now, will Roma get their shit together and stick to their project? Will Napoli lose their star players if they dont make the CL this year? Will Lazio cash on their star players this summer? Will fiorentina keep growing? Is Thohir going to stick to his plans and spend? And will we ever see the Milan of old? Too many variables as you can see and it could go either way

by Great Leader Sprucenuce Thu Mar 19, 2015 2:55 pm

BarrileteCosmico wrote:
Great Leader Sprucenuce wrote:It will take years of shite for that to happen, it's more likely Bundesliga loses its spot tbh.
Not really, Germany have a team guaranteed to make semis every year and they generally care about the EL. PL teams don't care about the EL and don't have a team that is great right now. I think England will go third soon but won't lose it to Italy.

An outdated myth, EL results for England recently have been good and they do take it seriously. It's the CL results which have been bad.

by iftikhar Thu Mar 19, 2015 3:05 pm

#1-3 nations have the same 'privilege' as far as CL goes. Three goes into the group stage while a fourth goes into the play-off stage. Right??? Does this ranking affect EL places too??? Otherwise, I don't see the difference it makes if you are #1 or #3.

by Helmer Thu Mar 19, 2015 3:09 pm

Hapless_Hans wrote:Germany have effectively already overtaken England, HMR.

As standings are today they'll be second place beginning of next season.

you mean including this round, i mean this round of EL and CL. I thought the points shown in the table inlcude CL results and only EL results are not included :coffee:

if both CL and both EL results are not included in the current table shown on the website that means, Germany after this round will have more points.

by windkick Thu Mar 19, 2015 3:10 pm

The difference is #3 is the closest to #4, so if the fourth nation starts to do good the the third one is the one likely to have to worry about losing a UCL spot. It's also prestige, Premier league always fancies itself being the best of the best, but if they one day drop down to 3...maybe even 4 then it would be a huge blow (financially as well if they lose a UCL spot)

by Helmer Thu Mar 19, 2015 3:11 pm

iftikhar wrote:#1-3 nations have the same 'privilege' as far as CL goes. Three goes into the group stage while a fourth goes into the play-off stage. Right??? Does this ranking affect EL places too??? Otherwise, I don't see the difference it makes if you are #1 or #3.

actually it doesnt, but it is better to be first than be near the fourth position !

by Hapless_Hans Thu Mar 19, 2015 3:30 pm

HEIL MEIN REDS wrote:
Hapless_Hans wrote:Germany have effectively already overtaken England, HMR.

As standings are today they'll be second place beginning of next season.

you mean including this round, i mean this round of EL and CL. I thought the points shown in the table inlcude CL results and only EL results are not included
if both CL and both EL results are not included in the current table shown on the website that means, Germany after this round will have more points.

The 5-year-ranking consists of current season and the 4 previous seasons put together.

Hence, with the start of next season the points of 2010/11 will expire, and the 2010/11 season is one where England had 3 points more than Germany.

That means, UNLESS England gains half a point on Germany in the remainder of the current season, Germany will be 2nd and England 3rd at the beginning of next season, with a lead of rougly half a point (with the then current season starting at 0).

Whether Germany finishes the 2015/16 season as 2nd is another matter of course, that depends how the season goes.

However this is pretty meaningless on two levels.

First of all, IF we were to finish 2015/16 as 2nd place that would be relevant only for the allocation of CL/EL spots in season 2017/18, as there's always a season buffer.

Secondly, the allocation of spots is of course the same whether one is 2nd or 3rd lol.

Here's a comprehensive table

http://www.5-jahres-wertung.de/APD/Online/5JW.php

by farfan Thu Mar 19, 2015 3:52 pm

that lead Portugal has over Frankreich :facepalm:

by Hapless_Hans Thu Mar 19, 2015 3:58 pm

farfan wrote:that lead Portugal has over Frankreich

read my post and take a closer look before you get depressed Laughing

Portugal has a 8.75 point lead over France, 8 of which stem from 2010/11 and thus become irrelevant in 3 months hmm

by farfan Thu Mar 19, 2015 4:06 pm

i see

the big threat now are those russian scrubs and their successful EL campaigns Mad

by Hapless_Hans Thu Mar 19, 2015 4:09 pm

farfan wrote:i see

the big threat now are those russian scrubs and their successful EL campaigns

Yes, because you needn't worry about Portugal anyway.

Overtaking Portugal won't get you anything, being overtaken by Russia however means 1 certain CL spot less Laughing

by BarrileteCosmico Thu Mar 19, 2015 11:16 pm

Update:

If over the remainder of this season and the following Serie A outperforms the PL by 5.93 coefficient points it will get the 4th spot back in 2016/17

If over the remainder of this season and the following 2 Serie A outperforms the PL by 2.04 coefficient points it will get the 4th spot back in 2017/18.

2 points over 2 seasons isn't that much better, its just doing barely more in both seasons. And since Italy still has 3 teams in Europe this can become even lower.

BUT I've run the numbers, and even if Juve won every game left and Fiorentina and Napoli won every game left the coefficients would only be 19.83 for this season, 2.27 points short of starting next season with more coefficient points than England.

by futbol Thu Mar 19, 2015 11:21 pm

DAT gap between the La GOAT Liga and the other unworthy leagues. :bow:

by Helmer Thu Mar 19, 2015 11:31 pm

@Hans, all ist clear. Thanks Thumbs up

So, this means as BC said, Italy have a very good chance if they keep performing like they performed in this season. England quickly needs to recover their shit otherwise they will surely lose that spot soon Laughing

by RealGunner Thu Mar 19, 2015 11:35 pm

This season was the first time since 92 that an English club failed to make beyond R16 in either El/CL. Anomaly at this point. If this happens again, which is unlikely, then there is a cause of worry.

Top 3 spots doesn't really matter since they all get the same Cl spots. But it's important to keep the distance from the 4th placed team.

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