OT:Declination of Serie A and Rise of Bundes Liga

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Post by Adit on Tue Nov 15, 2011 1:17 pm

As I've said a time or two, one way to tell how good a team is is to look at how much of something it does on the pitch. More goals = better. Seems logical, it's not very hard to figure out, and you don't need to know very much about numbers to understand it. Hence, it shouldn't be surprising that counting things up has been the primary way of evaluating quality in football.

But another and perhaps more intriguing way to gauge performance is by looking at how well someone (or several someones) perform a particular task. That's where we get into the business of measuring and evaluating things like individual or team efficiency. Efficiency is a measure of quality, not just quantity.

Assuming most people wouldn't disagree with the idea that players who score more goals on fewer tries are better, I was curious if there are any discernible trends in efficiency across the big leagues of European football. Are leagues getting better (here defined as "more efficient")? Do we see improvements in football efficiency, as we do in many other areas of economic activity, from logistics to how we use energy?

So just for kicks, here's a quick look at goalscoring efficiency across the big leagues measured by the goals to overall shots ratio (measured at the team/match level) in the Bundesliga, the Premiership, La Liga, and Serie A. Below you will find graphic representations of efficiency ratios (goals to shots) averaged across all teams and matches for each season since 2005-06 (the period for which I was able to get data for all four leagues). Guess what?!

OT:Declination of Serie A and Rise of Bundes Liga Goals+to+shots+ratios+big+4+2005+to+2010

The Bundesliga has seen consistent improvement over these six seasons, while shooters in Serie A have gone on a steady decline when it comes to efficiency. By the 2010/11 season, Serie A was clearly the least efficient of the four big leagues. In contrast, the Premier League and La Liga do not show clear trends and instead appear to fluctuate a fairly constant mean. One exception: the 2008/09 Premier League season, in which teams were almost as bad as Serie A has been for a few years now.

So what does this all mean? As a native German who is only too aware of cultural stereotypes (thanks to helpful family members), I did cringe a little bit when I saw the Bundesliga getting more efficient and the Italian league become more profligate. All stereotypes aside, we do have to give the "Most Improved Efficiency Award" to the Bundesliga and the "Most Consistently Efficient Award" to the Premier League.

But more than anything, I was surprised to see Serie A go on such a noticeable decline over such a relatively short period. Of course, it could be that the window of time covered by the data isn't long enough and that the picture would look different with, say, 20 years of data. We don't, so that's speculation at this point. But when you couple these numbers with the leagues' financial health or attendance numbers, you do start to worry about Serie A and you feel good about the trajectory the Bundesliga is on.


Serie A declination in goal to shot from 2004 to 2010 is just huge.. Shocked

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OT:Declination of Serie A and Rise of Bundes Liga Empty Re: OT:Declination of Serie A and Rise of Bundes Liga

Post by Babun on Tue Nov 15, 2011 1:29 pm

The efficiency diagram doesn't show the total quality Very Happy
Serie A teams don't create a lot of chances and are very defensive. They shoot often outside the box to destroy PTB tactics (high number of shots, lack of pressing). In EPL, BL and la liga, teams openly attack each other to gain a victory (clear chances on counter). The idea is to win, in Serie A , not to lose eco smile
Serie A forwards get very few true goal scoring chances but they tend to convert them. If we're speaking league wise only Serie a and Bundesliga have deadly finishers (efficiency), they usually need less chances than strikers from other leagues eco smile

Overall, Serie A declined by a huge margin but it's not because of shot efficiency eco smile

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Post by Adit on Tue Nov 15, 2011 1:39 pm

babun1024 wrote:The efficiency diagram doesn't show the total quality Very Happy
Serie A teams don't create a lot of chances and are very defensive. They shoot often outside the box to destroy PTB tactics (high number of shots, lack of pressing). In EPL, BL and la liga, teams openly attack each other to gain a victory (clear chances on counter). The idea is to win, in Serie A , not to lose eco smile
Serie A forwards get very few true goal scoring chances but they tend to convert them. If we're speaking league wise only Serie a and Bundesliga have deadly finishers (efficiency), they usually need less chances than strikers from other leagues eco smile

Overall, Serie A declined by a huge margin but it's not because of shot efficiency eco smile
It does show quality of players,look at the huge declination over the years in serie a..How will you explain it other wise?
Bundesliga could take over serie a as third best league in the world(unofficially) if their teams can attract top talents around the wolrd to their clubs apart from bayern.
If we're speaking league wise only Serie a and Bundesliga have deadly finishers (efficiency), they usually need less chances than strikers from other leagues eco smile
Delusion at it best Very Happy

Show statics or GTFO eco smile

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Post by Babun on Tue Nov 15, 2011 1:55 pm

@Adit wrote:
babun1024 wrote:The efficiency diagram doesn't show the total quality Very Happy
Serie A teams don't create a lot of chances and are very defensive. They shoot often outside the box to destroy PTB tactics (high number of shots, lack of pressing). In EPL, BL and la liga, teams openly attack each other to gain a victory (clear chances on counter). The idea is to win, in Serie A , not to lose eco smile
Serie A forwards get very few true goal scoring chances but they tend to convert them. If we're speaking league wise only Serie a and Bundesliga have deadly finishers (efficiency), they usually need less chances than strikers from other leagues eco smile

Overall, Serie A declined by a huge margin but it's not because of shot efficiency eco smile
It does show quality of players,look at the huge declination over the years in serie a..How will you explain it other wise?
Bundesliga could take over serie a as third best league in the world(unofficially) if their teams can attract top talents around the wolrd to their clubs apart from bayern.
If we're speaking league wise only Serie a and Bundesliga have deadly finishers (efficiency), they usually need less chances than strikers from other leagues eco smile
Delusion at it best Very Happy

Show statics or GTFO eco smile
I watched the diagram again properly, the decline is HUGE eco smile Yeah, that's an indicator among many eco smile
I read your source: http://www.soccerbythenumbers.com/
To the second part, Serie A and BL play with less width than the other two leagues. Strikers have to convert any chance they get in enclosed space either by physicality or technique Very Happy
Strikers who grow up in those 'narrow' leagues use every chance like it's their last eco smile I won't bother showing you all the stats Very Happy i'm busy right now eco smile
Post this threa din gen section for some Serie A fun eco smile

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Post by Adit on Tue Nov 15, 2011 2:06 pm

babun1024 wrote:To the second part, Serie A and BL play with less width than the other two leagues. Strikers have to convert any chance they get in enclosed space either by physicality or technique Very Happy
Strikers who grow up in those 'narrow' leagues use every chance like it's their last eco smile I won't bother showing you all the stats Very Happy i'm busy right now eco smile
Since its based on pure assumption and generalized theories it is far from being truth eco smile

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