2020 US presidential election

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Post by Myesyats Sun Nov 08, 2020 1:13 pm

first presidential speech in 4 years, ufff

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Post by McLewis Sun Nov 08, 2020 2:48 pm

Glad Trump is out, but any real enthusiasm I have is tempered by what is sure to come next: A whole lot of GOP obstruction.

In some ways, this victory seems symbolic...even hollow knowing that it was not a complete a victory as it should've been. Maybe that's just sour grapes on my part because I do not see a progressive agenda happening under Biden, especially with a hostile Senate.

It's a good day, no doubt. Can't help, but think it really could've been a better one if the Dems did better in Congressional races down ballot.

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Post by CBarca Sun Nov 08, 2020 2:53 pm

2020 has sucked ass

Take the victories where they come

The amount of difference we can do with an executive branch that believes in science, education, dreamers/a just immigration process...we can do a lot even without the legislative branch. The assault on environmental regulations is fuckin over.

I don't think we'll get the senate. Still possible though :/
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Post by McLewis Sun Nov 08, 2020 3:03 pm

No doubt. I do look forward to Biden rebuilding the Covid-19 task force that was originally setup to deal with crises like this and rebuilding the CDC's reputation. He must fire that spineless, empty suit Redfield and put someone in the position who will push back on any effort to politicize that organization so they can do what they do best without political animals controlling their every move.

How Biden handles Covid is the important part of his early presidency. He has to get another stimulus bill out there while he works to undo Trump's damage. That means cutting out a lot of the progressive obstacles that prevented the Heroes Act from even getting a sniff from McConnell. What will actually be passed will probably be unrecognizable, but better than nothing. I just hope Biden compromises and does not capitulate. There is a clear difference between the 2.

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Post by CBarca Sun Nov 08, 2020 3:36 pm

I agree but I'm not sure how it happens.

McConnell is the devil. They've gone this long without passing relief, and seem to not give a fuck. What is stopping McConnell from saying no to everything except what I want?

Biden and Dems can hammer him but...will it matter? It didn't seem to cost Republicans electorally in 2020 (Congressional Republicans...don't ask me how it's fuckin possible).

With that being said, I think we're all going to have to learn to adjust to post-Trump. Maybe Biden hammering McConnell DOES hurt the GOP without Trump taking up the limelight. But it's hard to say. And we'll have to wait till the next elections to find out.

One thing is for sure, expect Mcconnell to be the largest possible prick he's been in his life until we see results in 2022. And quite frankly, because of tradition, GOP probably takes 2022.

But I'm gonna keep being happy tonight -.-
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Post by Arquitecto Sun Nov 08, 2020 7:31 pm

Congratulations to all my GL Americans here and its been terrific watching you all update and provide your opinions on this election. Just so proud of how well-versed and informed my friends are here. Heart
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Post by Hapless_Hans Sun Nov 08, 2020 9:06 pm

sportsczy wrote:
Vibe wrote:Just hope senile Biden doesn't forget they already bombarded us

What are you talking about?


You do remember there was a war about Kosovo? NATO bombarding Serbia like it's 1941?
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Post by VivaStPauli Sun Nov 08, 2020 10:08 pm

Hapless_Hans wrote:
sportsczy wrote:
Vibe wrote:Just hope senile Biden doesn't forget they already bombarded us

What are you talking about?


You do remember there was a war about Kosovo? NATO bombarding Serbia like it's 1941?


Ahhh, the late 90s, Britney Spears, Smash Mouth, everybody murdering the shit out of everybody else in Kosovo. Yeah that sucked.
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Post by Myesyats Mon Nov 09, 2020 12:24 am

I consume so much american media that Biden feels more like my president than my own at home. Finally the toxic, troll-esque energy is gone.

Now I'm awaiting "Lock him up" chants on the streets in return.
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Post by futbol Mon Nov 09, 2020 12:51 am

Vibe wrote:Why do I have the feeling absolutely nothing will change for the better apart from a more diplomatic approach to public appearance.

People really just need a friendly face to tell them nice happy things.


Because indeed nothing will happen. Biden and Trump could be best Golfing pals who are in agreement on most policies but have to put on a show for their respective voter bases.

Harris already said that Biden is not against Fracking for example. So the usual American policy of exploiting the planet for profits will continue. The rhetorics will be nicer for sure. Instead of Trump's showman approach where he takes a shovel and digs imaginary coal we'll hear from Biden how important the matter of Climate Change is while actually executing the exact same policies as before: Job numbers come first.

It is really convenient for Biden that Republicans will have the Senate as another 4 years will pass without having a first world country health care system.

We already know that Biden was an advocate of the Iraq invasion.

In the last debate Biden already identified China as the major US enemy besides the generic Russia call so that also shows me that the real men with power behind these 2 puppets really fear China's rise to power and the US's obvious demise.

Drone wars and sanction policies will continue. Etc.

Just another episode of "good Cop, bad Cop" American elections. In 4 years it's the bad Cop's turn again.

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Post by BarrileteCosmico Mon Nov 09, 2020 4:58 am

McLewis wrote:Glad Trump is out, but any real enthusiasm I have is tempered by what is sure to come next: A whole lot of GOP obstruction.

In some ways, this victory seems symbolic...even hollow knowing that it was not a complete a victory as it should've been. Maybe that's just sour grapes on my part because I do not see a progressive agenda happening under Biden, especially with a hostile Senate.

It's a good day, no doubt. Can't help, but think it really could've been a better one if the Dems did better in Congressional races down ballot.
we get to dream of a blue senate for another 2 months or so, but once that's dusted I very much agree with you.

Still, I'm 'excited' that politics will be boring again and Trump won't be renting space in my head any more, that racists won't feel validated to come out into the open again, that policies will no longer be cruel for cruelty's sake, and that the president will not take any conflict as a chance to fan the flames of hate. Not to mention take the epidemic seriously. So that's definitely all good, even if the election was disappointing.
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Post by BarrileteCosmico Mon Nov 09, 2020 5:03 am

CBarca wrote:I agree but I'm not sure how it happens.

McConnell is the devil. They've gone this long without passing relief, and seem to not give a fuck. What is stopping McConnell from saying no to everything except what I want?

Biden and Dems can hammer him but...will it matter? It didn't seem to cost Republicans electorally in 2020 (Congressional Republicans...don't ask me how it's fuckin possible).

With that being said, I think we're all going to have to learn to adjust to post-Trump. Maybe Biden hammering McConnell DOES hurt the GOP without Trump taking up the limelight. But it's hard to say. And we'll have to wait till the next elections to find out.

One thing is for sure, expect Mcconnell to be the largest possible prick he's been in his life until we see results in 2022. And quite frankly, because of tradition, GOP probably takes 2022.

But I'm gonna keep being happy tonight -.-
Biden spent the entire campaign arguing that his relationships with GOP senators will allow him to reach across the aisle and get things done. Time to prove it.
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Post by CBarca Mon Nov 09, 2020 5:48 am

The Republicans are, by and large, either silent right now or actively arguing that the election is rigged without evidence.

Biden was just appealing to never-trumpers (which ended up being a waste of time) and independents. Joe Biden is good at politics and did what he had to do to win the election.

Unfortunately, that doesn't mean he'll be able to work with a side that has been hijacked by authoritarianism and has increasingly hostile attitudes to democracy.

I'm happy that we've staved off our demons for four more years. However, I'm becoming increasingly convinced that without some sort of electoral/democratic reform (the kind of large change that is probably impossible to institute), this country is headed straight into an iceberg.
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Post by sportsczy Mon Nov 09, 2020 7:06 am

GOP is in a tough position. They have to show support for Trump without going overboard (for most of them) for a couple of reasons:

1. There's still the runoff in Georgia in January 2021 that may swing the Senate. So if they piss off the electorate too much... in both directions. Moderate conservatives may swing if they push Trump's nonsense too much and the Trump republicans want them to show some support.

2. Trump did get 70 million votes. So the GOP can't just cut him off. So again, they need to show some support to his cause.
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Post by Adit Mon Nov 09, 2020 7:51 am

I think with out coroa Trump would have won.
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Post by Freeza Mon Nov 09, 2020 8:05 am

Adit wrote:I think with out coroa Trump would have won.


His approval rating before the pandemic was lower than it is now
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Post by BarrileteCosmico Mon Nov 09, 2020 8:26 am

Adit wrote:I think with out coroa Trump would have won.
yup. In many states that were won by a few thousand votes the probable votes of the dead from corona would've been enough to shift the map to him. Add to that a good economy and it was game over.
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Post by McLewis Mon Nov 09, 2020 9:17 am

There would be a certain ironic, poetic justice in Trump losing due to the votes of people who died from a virus he failed to take seriously.

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Post by Myesyats Mon Nov 09, 2020 9:47 am



I love how savage Twitter is right now adding those fact checks to this idiot's tweets rofl
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Post by CBarca Mon Nov 09, 2020 9:53 am

sportsczy wrote:GOP is in a tough position. They have to show support for Trump without going overboard (for most of them) for a couple of reasons:

1. There's still the runoff in Georgia in January 2021 that may swing the Senate. So if they piss off the electorate too much... in both directions. Moderate conservatives may swing if they push Trump's nonsense too much and the Trump republicans want them to show some support.

2. Trump did get 70 million votes. So the GOP can't just cut him off. So again, they need to show some support to his cause.


These are good points that may temper my feelings about the GOP and how much it has been abducted by the populist alt right Trumpian type ideology.

We'll see what the GOP is like in a year or 1.5 years from now.

With that being said, I stand by my statement about heading into an iceberg without some fundamental democratic reforms. Fuckin gerrymandering to start with.
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Post by CBarca Mon Nov 09, 2020 10:20 am

McLewis wrote:There would be a certain ironic, poetic justice in Trump losing due to the votes of people who died from a virus he failed to take seriously.


I don't know what the breakdown is across the US, but I would imagine the majority of deaths are in urban centers across the US. Even if they aren't at this point, since the pandemic has spread more widely, urban centers were the most hit early on. As urban spaces are strongly pro-Biden, I would imagine the votes would either cancel out fairly evenly, or hurt Dems (although you could argue based on age alone that it hurts Trump).

I don't think it makes any difference though, just based on numbers. Take WI, which might end up being the slimmest margin except GA. Biden won by 20k. Total deaths here are 2300.

GA will be won by over 10K. Probably not more than 15K I assume. GA has had ~8000 deaths, but a significant amount (at least a bit over 2000 just looking at Atlanta/surrounding counties) would have been in urban centers.

In these two states we're nowhere near the amount needed to swing the state.

Obviously this is just a fun exercise we're having, but I thought it was a fun and interesting enough question to look to see if it had any legitimate merit, and it doesn't appear so.
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Post by sportsczy Mon Nov 09, 2020 10:47 am

@cbarca... if they were really all behind him, things would be a lot louder. The great majority is staying on the sidelines.

Also an interesting note... the Biden campaign has said the GOP members have called him to congratulate his election although they will not say who.

We've got some crazy people on both sides. No dem can say that Trump or his admin did anything right (they did; the Arab/Israel deal being right on top)... and the GOP can't go against Trump or openly congratulate Biden.

Strange times.
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Post by BarrileteCosmico Mon Nov 09, 2020 10:54 am

CBarca wrote:
McLewis wrote:There would be a certain ironic, poetic justice in Trump losing due to the votes of people who died from a virus he failed to take seriously.


I don't know what the breakdown is across the US, but I would imagine the majority of deaths are in urban centers across the US. Even if they aren't at this point, since the pandemic has spread more widely, urban centers were the most hit early on. As urban spaces are strongly pro-Biden, I would imagine the votes would either cancel out fairly evenly, or hurt Dems (although you could argue based on age alone that it hurts Trump).

I don't think it makes any difference though, just based on numbers. Take WI, which might end up being the slimmest margin except GA. Biden won by 20k. Total deaths here are 2300.

GA will be won by over 10K. Probably not more than 15K I assume. GA has had ~8000 deaths, but a significant amount (at least a bit over 2000 just looking at Atlanta/surrounding counties) would have been in urban centers.

In these two states we're nowhere near the amount needed to swing the state.

Obviously this is just a fun exercise we're having, but I thought it was a fun and interesting enough question to look to see if it had any legitimate merit, and it doesn't appear so.
If you expand the votes of the dead to those of direct family, how does the math change? And even if they're urban, they would still by en large be at the 70+ age bracket which leans red.

In any case it would've been a tighter race had they been around.
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Post by BarrileteCosmico Mon Nov 09, 2020 11:10 am

Amusing british take on the cnn coverage

https://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/cnn-news-anchors-freaking-out-brits_uk_5fa1f4e2c5b6c588dc96cbb5

Also a very good read:

https://twitter.com/shaunjlawson/status/1324431788584873985

I'm increasingly convinced that the only way to fix these structural inbalances in the EC is for California to divide itself. Mass did it for the same reasons when it created Maine.
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Post by CBarca Mon Nov 09, 2020 12:55 pm

BarrileteCosmico wrote:If you expand the votes of the dead to those of direct family, how does the math change?

It might be late and I'm not thinking right, but I'm not sure I understand this question. Is there another way to word it? Although I'm not sure I would go through the work to properly answer the question, haha

Also a very good read:

https://twitter.com/shaunjlawson/status/1324431788584873985

I'm increasingly convinced that the only way to fix these structural inbalances in the EC is for California to divide itself. Mass did it for the same reasons when it created Maine.

The thread is good, but I'm a bit confused. He spends all this time shitting on Bernie and praising Biden, but then argues that AOC and moving left is the future of the democratic party?

If his argument is that Dems need to find a more coherent platform and messaging strategy (one that doesn't involve the kind of coalition building only a strong and experienced candidate like Biden was able to pull off), I don't disagree with him. However, right now it isn't clear that moving to the left is effective to that end.

With respect to the electoral college, the answer is to abolish it.

We're not that far away: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_Popular_Vote_Interstate_Compact
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Post by sportsczy Mon Nov 09, 2020 1:04 pm

The only way the GOP stands a chance to win anything forever in terms of the White House is through the electoral college... with the Supreme Court being conservative for the foreseeable future, don't hold your breath re the electoral college being abolished.  Even if the Dems get Congress, Senate, and Presidency and get a constitutional amendment passed (needs a supermajority remember; not 50+%, 60+%)... the supreme court would 100% strike it down.

It's such a long shot, it's not even worth considering.  Similar to the right to bear arms.
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