2020/21 Premier League Discussion

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Post by RealGunner Sun Dec 06, 2020 11:05 pm

Ndombele won't leave.

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Post by Arquitecto Sun Dec 06, 2020 11:06 pm

Just the difference between Arsenal's squad and the rest of the Top 6 usual is so glaring.

Beyond Auba and Lacazette it is hard to name a stand out player. The midfield is average and Laca was their only hope today given his new role given Auba is out of form.

The most obvious glaring need is a lack of any creativity and or creative midfielder.


If Arsenal don't snatch Eriksen from Inter for themselves thatll be a huge missed opp.
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Post by RealGunner Sun Dec 06, 2020 11:22 pm

This Spurs team is so bad and yet we are losing 2-0 ffs
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Post by Hapless_Hans Sun Dec 06, 2020 11:26 pm

Arteta needs to go this week.

This team does not know how to create chances.

Eriksen sounds like the single worst possible idea though. Absolute no-go.
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Post by BarrileteCosmico Sun Dec 06, 2020 11:36 pm

@RealGunner wrote:This Spurs team is so bad and yet we are losing 2-0 ffs
it is time for you to bow to hjojberg's excellence
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Post by RealGunner Sun Dec 06, 2020 11:39 pm

@BarrileteCosmico wrote:
@RealGunner wrote:This Spurs team is so bad and yet we are losing 2-0 ffs
it is time for you to bow to hjojberg's excellence


System player. Bad run of form and he'll be the first to go.
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Post by RealGunner Sun Dec 06, 2020 11:39 pm

Willian is abysmal. Why do we sign these shit past it players
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Post by Helmer Mon Dec 07, 2020 1:36 am

Just the first weekend having fans back in the stadium and feels so so weird.
Coady with a laughable laughable dive Laughing

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Post by Hapless_Hans Mon Dec 07, 2020 1:39 am

No complaining abut VAR today?
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Post by Thimmy Mon Dec 07, 2020 1:42 am

@Hapless_Hans wrote:No complaining abut VAR today?


I thought that was your job? hmm
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Post by Helmer Mon Dec 07, 2020 1:43 am

no random bullshit about lucky decisions for Liverpool today Laughing ?

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Post by Nishankly Mon Dec 07, 2020 4:32 am

@Helmer wrote:no random bullshit about lucky decisions for Liverpool today Laughing ?


Me calling out other games goes censored here Laughing

GL at its best
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Post by Myesyats Mon Dec 07, 2020 4:52 am

@RealGunner wrote:Willian is abysmal. Why do we sign these shit past it players

Willian hype lasted exactly one game, y'all thought he was going to win arsenal the leauge after that debut assist hattrick hmm
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Post by Casciavit Mon Dec 07, 2020 7:36 pm

I would need to do more research, but I wonder if teams who shithouse victories are more efficient than teams on the front foot.

You always read those stats about two shots on target and two goals while the other team could have 10 shots on target and score nothing. One reason for that is the defensive team creates more clear cut chances since they're hitting on the counter. Another is that they might be more efficient because they have less pressure mentally than the proactive team. Or maybe I'm wrong and it's simply a case of selection bias and those reactive teams aren't actually more efficient. hmm

I know Son is recognized as one of the best finishers in the world but his current run isn't sustainable at all. An xG of 4 but his league goal total is 10 lol. That's why I'm on the fence about Mourinho's team.

Scoring freak goals on the counter every chance you get isn't sustainable. It did get me thinking though. I wonder how his league winning teams' xG compared to their xG during his third season implosion. I had a theory while watching the highlights that the reason Mourinho's teams go to shit is because they can't sustain his football. Low shot total, low chances created, but high goal output. Maybe you can get one season where your players do that but the chances they keep that up in the long term is impossible. I'll definitely take a look at some data and see if it backs up my theory.
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Post by Arquitecto Mon Dec 07, 2020 7:48 pm

Mourinho's entire run is not sustainable at all.

Arsenal looked the better team until Spurs banked on a serious mistake by their opposition.

They just don't look very good and statistically they do not either.


So they are "due" to regress sooner than later.
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Post by FennecFox7 Mon Dec 07, 2020 8:26 pm

XG is a bad way to judge a teams potential to score. It assumes all players have the same shooting and finishing technique.. when that’s not the case
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Post by CBarca Mon Dec 07, 2020 8:56 pm

Arsenal only "looked better" because Spurs parked the bus. They created absolutely nothing and on the whole looked dreadful, as they have done under Arteta.

In any case, Casci, it is worth pointing out that Spurs have ground out 3 late winners against shit teams in the weeks leading up to these big games. 88th minute winner against West Brom. 79th or so winner against Brighton. 76th minute or so winner against Burnley. Two 1-0 and one 2-1 game. Spurs could pretty easily be 6 points back of where they are right now.

So in terms of it being sustainable, you would say that already points to a bit of luck.

With that being said, people said that about Leicester all of their title winning season and you could reasonably say the same thing about Liverpool last season (albeit they were regularly much more dominant than this Spurs team) in terms of grinding out wins in games where it didn't look like a win was on the cards. So it's hard to forecast what is and isn't sustainable throughout a season.

One thing I can say is that at the very least, this type of football is probably more sustainable (at least physically, and therefore results wise) in the weird year the EPL has got than in other years, given the limited offseason.
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Post by farfan Mon Dec 07, 2020 9:06 pm

Solid defense + counter attacks is not a sustainable approach? since when? Laughing Mourinho himself has won many titles playing this way.
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Post by CBarca Mon Dec 07, 2020 9:17 pm

@farfan wrote:Solid defense + counter attacks is not a sustainable approach? since when? Laughing Mourinho himself has won many titles playing this way.


I think the difference is the quality of team.

Inter/Madrid/both Chelsea teams have all had more quality than this Tottenham team.
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Post by M99 Mon Dec 07, 2020 11:43 pm

Charlie Eccleshare (The Athletic) wrote:Come on, be honest, who of you had Spurs keeping clean sheets against all three of Manchester City, Chelsea and Arsenal?

Who had Tottenham conceding one goal in their six Premier League games following that calamitous late draw against West Ham?

And while I’m firing questions out, how many of you are finding Tottenham swatting aside their Big Six rivals and sitting top of the table remotely boring?

I expect, despite some suggestions about Tottenham’s style of play on Sky Sports on Sunday, that the answer to that final question is close to zero. Following Tottenham’s confident, calm, even breezy 2-0 win over Arsenal, Graeme Souness said that Tottenham are “not a great watch”. Which seemed strange given only Chelsea and Liverpool have scored more goals than them in the Premier League this season.

But whether as a neutral you find Spurs entertaining to watch, for supporters there is something wondrous about the way the team is defending. For a group of fans programmed to expect self-destruction, the new-found solidity is a marvel.

Just seven weeks ago we were picking the bones out of Spurs becoming the first team in Premier League history not to win a game when leading 3-0 in the 82nd minute. Since then they have conceded once in the league in six games, and that was Tariq Lamptey’s goal for Brighton which should have been disallowed for a clear foul on Pierre-Emile Hojbjerg.

In the subsequent 394 Premier League minutes, Spurs have not conceded.

Two-hundred and seventy of those minutes have come against Manchester City, Chelsea and Arsenal, during which time Hugo Lloris has made just 10 saves, most of which have been routine.

This is not normal.

We shouldn’t rewrite history and forget that Mauricio Pochettino’s Tottenham enjoyed some periods of impressive defensive solidity but, by way of comparison, Spurs’ previous three Premier League clean sheets against Big Six opposition stretched over 25 matches, from February 2018 to October 2020. That’s more than eight times as many games as the run Spurs have just been on. Looking at the league as a whole, in the 38 games prior to the start of this run, Tottenham had kept just six clean sheets.

And it’s a run that’s come with the rookie Joe Rodon at the heart of the defence for one of the games, and a pairing of Eric Dier and Toby Alderweireld for the others. Dier and Alderweireld are both excellent footballers but for their lack of pace not to be exposed is extraordinary. When Alderweireld was finally drawn into a one-on-one battle against Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang on Sunday, he was close enough to goal that he could just about keep pace with the Arsenal striker before making a brilliant block. He and Dier were also helped by Tottenham luring Arsenal into attempting a staggering 32 crosses from open play.

The Spurs centre-backs are aided by having two fast full-backs next to them, but again it’s remarkable that the hugely attacking-minded Sergio Reguilon and Serge Aurier, supposedly such a weak link previously, have not been caught out of position more.

A big part of the explanation for Spurs’ stunning defensive turnaround — prior to the 1-0 win at Burnley they were on a run of 10 matches in all competitions without a clean sheet — is how well they defend as a team. Michael Cox explained after the 0-0 draw at Chelsea how Moussa Sissoko and Hojberg drop back from midfield to form a defensive six, but you also have Harry Kane taking more touches in his own box than the opposition’s against Arsenal, and nominal right winger Steven Bergwijn playing at times like an additional full-back.

“You try to help players also individually and improve, and after that it’s the concept of team,” head coach Jose Mourinho told The Athletic after the Arsenal win as he tried to explain the defensive turnaround. “Because it’s not just about the defenders. It’s Harry Kane winning the ball in the box, it’s Steven Bergwijn doing incredible effort on the sides, it’s Lucas (Moura) coming for five minutes and five minutes he helps the team so much. It’s Joe Rodon coming on for one minute and in that minute having a great defensive header for a long ball.”

Even the unused substitute Gareth Bale and Ben Davies, who later came on, played their part as they refused to budge from where they were warming up as Kieran Tierney tried to take a long throw.

It was suggested on Sky Sports that playing the way Spurs did on Sunday can’t be enjoyable for some of the more attacking players, like Giovani Lo Celso, while acknowledging how much they must trust Mourinho and buy into the project to be willing to make those kind of sacrifices. The latter feels like the more salient point, because when you’re winning games and doing so in a way that is the product of a well-thought out plan, you trust the manager. Sunday played out in precisely the way Mourinho thought it would, reminiscent of his first spell at Stamford Bridge, when it genuinely felt like Chelsea spent every single weekend winning 2-0.

For supporters there is a similar satisfaction at watching their team playing with so much control, so soon after the West Ham game, and against a backdrop of years of frenzied performances and collective losses of heads. Beating Arsenal 2-0, equalling their biggest Premier League north London derby win, is a whole lot more exciting and less predictable than, say, dropping points from a winning position (there have been 42 of those in Premier League north London derbies by Tottenham).

In contrast to some of their sides from down the years, this is a team where every single player seems to know precisely what they are doing and what they are trying to achieve. And on Sunday they were up against one where the opposite appeared to be the case.
How are Tottenham doing it? Mourinho admitted afterwards that the constant flow of games means there has been little time to rebuild the defence and so instead “we need to be very very clinical and go direct to the points (with the players)”.

The relentless fixture list continues this week with another pair of games on Thursday and Sunday, leaving precious time to reflect. But we should take a moment to think about how phenomenal Spurs’ defensive turnaround is: they have had as many Premier League clean sheets in the last six matches as in the 27 prior to that.

Maybe that suggests it’s not sustainable. But it also illustrates why this run of clean sheets has come as such a surprise, and why they’ve been anything but boring.
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Post by BarrileteCosmico Tue Dec 08, 2020 12:12 am

@Arquitecto wrote:Mourinho's entire run is not sustainable at all.

Arsenal looked the better team until Spurs banked on a serious mistake by their opposition.

They just don't look very good and statistically they do not either.


So they are "due" to regress sooner than later.


Lol wat. They played City, Chelsea and Arsenal the past 3 games took 7/9 points, and yet their form is not "sustainable"? Then what is? It would be very spursy to do great against the top 6 and then lose it all playing the bottom table minnows, but they definitely have the quality to continue on this run.

You can say Spurs played like shit, because that's how Mou teams play, that's his style. But Spurs dominated and Arsenal didn't get a clear chance all game.
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Post by Helmer Tue Dec 08, 2020 12:15 am

Spoiler:
2020/21 Premier League Discussion - Page 16 130282211_10159489867815982_6974641041499388650_o.png?_nc_cat=1&ccb=2&_nc_sid=2d5d41&_nc_eui2=AeFExBXIwwxJRoM1tTuFUv0myfjJTfpJf9jJ-MlN-kl_2LGIje08tKKa3fyizCY3inA&_nc_ohc=7SNLjpnMlZ8AX8M0-qK&_nc_ht=scontent-dus1-1

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Post by CBarca Tue Dec 08, 2020 7:11 am

The article is overstating how difficult it is to play defense when you put out a backline + two DM's, and then ask your wingers to track back very deep. The only player who doesn't defend much is Kane.

Tottenham's bus parking the last 3 games has been of the most extreme I've seen, no joke.
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Post by Casciavit Tue Dec 08, 2020 5:43 pm

@FennecFox7 wrote:XG is a bad way to judge a teams potential to score. It assumes all players have the same shooting and finishing technique.. when that’s not the case


That's not my point. When Son has never overperformed his xG the way he is currently doing so, there's a higher chance he'll revert back to his mean efficiency rate as the season progresses, rather than keeping up his current rate.

I mean I guess if he has a freak season ala Salah 2018, then maybe, but I'm not sure. Son's kind of inconsistent. We'll have to wait and see.
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Post by Casciavit Tue Dec 08, 2020 6:07 pm

@replies

When I wrote sustainable, I wasn't really thinking about this season specifically, but rather the long-term. I'll speak about both situations though.

I haven't seen enough of Spurs this season to determine whether they will actually be title contenders. Yes, they've done great against the PL top 6, but if they are playing like shit and are winning through freak goals, then I don't think it'll be sustainable until the end of the season. If they've actually been playing well, and have had luck, then fair play to them (you need both). They have a good team and even though I think Liverpool will still win, Spurs have a chance if Liverpool continues to get screwed with injuries.

As for shithousing results being a long-term sustainable approach, well scoring twice from three shots will never be a sustainable strategy in the long-term. I genuinely think that's one of the main reasons Mourinho's teams struggle so much after their second season. I'm looking at some data and there seems to be some evidence to my theory. I'll go more in-depth with it later.

Also, is shithousing results a winning strategy? Yeah, I don't disagree. My question is though how many of those teams actually sustain that success? Most of them don't. Eventually, their lack of quality catches up with them. They always outperform their expected stats by so much that when they revert back to their mean the following season their style of play actually matches their results.

Mourinho's Chelsea
Ranieri's Leicster
Conte's Chelsea
Mourinho's United in his second versus third season

The list goes on. They'll have that one season where they are insanely clinical and everything goes their way, but the season after they crash and burn because that kind of efficiency isn't sustainable. This really shouldn't be an argument.
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Post by Casciavit Tue Dec 08, 2020 6:09 pm

@sportsczy wrote:Mourinho is perfect for teams like Atleti, Spurs, etc.  They're not elite and never will be.  So you won't get elite tier attacking/creative talent.  But you will get some top tier talent...  or fringe ones...  that won't mind playing catenaccio + counter.

Once Ndombele leaves.... which he likely will fairly soon... then the team is perfect for Mourinho.  You have a snipper 9 (Kane), a fast and hard working 9.5 (song) and a bunch of water carriers.


Spurs is a really good fit for him. He can play his football without the media being on his back for not playing attacking football with a big team (he'll still get shit for it though). Underdog teams with high-level forwards who can lead the counter are his bread and butter.
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